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This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond.
It seems to happen every year… the schools go back and the weather settles down. This year, however, there are a couple of hurricanes in the Atlantic which may help (or hinder) high pressure over the UK. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern.
You may also enjoy:
– 10 Day trend forecast https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZDSHKqsgszMnk9d5IEF5UH
– Podcasts exploring weather and climate https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_brL5mcfsqI4cu42ueHttv0
– Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL
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We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.
Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.
It seems to happen every year… the schools go back and the weather settles down. This year, however, there are a couple of hurricanes in the Atlantic which may help (or hinder) high pressure over the UK. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern.
You may also enjoy:
– 10 Day trend forecast https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZDSHKqsgszMnk9d5IEF5UH
– Podcasts exploring weather and climate https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_brL5mcfsqI4cu42ueHttv0
– Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL
Subscribe to make sure you never miss the latest UK weather forecast or important weather warning - https://www.youtube.com/c/metoffice?sub_confirmation=1
We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.
Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Meteorological summer comes to an end this week. The schools go back next week. Will the weather settle down?
00:06 Of course it will. It's that time of year. Schools go back, high pressure returns and that's how things are looking from the weekend.
00:14 But there could be a spanner in the works because hurricane activity has picked up and there are two hurricanes currently in the Atlantic.
00:23 I'll be taking a look at those hurricanes and how that activity might impact the UK's weather in the medium range.
00:32 Now if you like these in-depth looks at the weather, this is the weekly deep dive, then why not subscribe to our YouTube channel?
00:40 That means you'll never miss one of these when we broadcast them each week.
00:44 And of course we've got the 10-day trend on a Wednesday as well.
00:47 And if you do enjoy these longer, more in-depth forecasts, then ticking subscribe will be like a vote to see more of these in the future.
00:56 But before we get onto the forecast, let's take a look back at the summer that is just about to end.
01:03 And this shows the mean temperature across the UK. The black line in the middle is the average through the summer months,
01:11 whilst this line that goes up and down is the mean temperature across the UK each day of the summer.
01:18 Where it's red, well that's where we've seen above average temperatures on that particular day or that particular period.
01:24 Where it's blue, below average temperatures. And really June stands out.
01:29 It started about average, but then after the first week, this huge increase in temperatures across the UK for a sustained period,
01:37 leading to the hottest June on record. July and August on the other hand have been mixed.
01:44 Above average, below average, fairly consistently mixed through July and August.
01:50 Now July overall was a fraction of a degree below average. August at the moment, still a few days to go, is looking a fraction of a degree above average.
02:00 So taken together, July and August cancelling themselves out. About average July and August for mean temperatures.
02:07 But June was two and a half degrees above average. And as a result, this summer is looking fairly remarkable in terms of the average temperatures.
02:17 Also fairly remarkable in terms of the average rainfall across the UK.
02:24 This is the rainfall amount. And as you can see, it started off really dry and then we had a very wet July and that boosted that rainfall.
02:33 And this is the rolling accumulations, by the way, the black line through the middle there showing an average season.
02:39 The blue area there showing that we are on track for a wetter than average season overall.
02:46 Mostly helped by July's rainfall. August has been closer to average as far as rainfall is concerned, although it has been a fairly showery month with hit and miss showers and longer spells of rain across the country,
02:58 leading to fairly uneven amounts of rainfall across the country. But June was very dry.
03:03 July was very wet and overall we're looking at a wetter than average July.
03:08 Now, compare that with, say, 2018, which was the hottest summer on record. And you can see that season was well below average as far as the rainfall was concerned.
03:19 And in fact, if you look at the top 10 warmest summers on record, they all had significantly below average rainfall through the season.
03:29 2006, 2003, 2022, that's last year, and 1976, they're all shown, they're all in the top 10 warmest summers on record, all significantly below average rainfall.
03:41 And just another selection there, 1995, 1933, 1947, 1899, again, all significantly below average.
03:50 1947 is an interesting one, top right there, above average rainfall through June and July. And then it flatlined through August. Nothing at all.
04:01 So it ended up being much drier than average. And then finally, the final one in the top 10, 2021.
04:08 This is the, at the time of recording, 10th warmest summer on record and again, significantly below average rainfall.
04:16 So all of the top 10 warmest summers on record show the similar well below average rainfall signal.
04:25 Why is that interesting? It's because at the time of recording, still a few days to go, this summer looks likely to be in the top 10 warmest on record.
04:37 And it's also been wet. So it's that rare combination of a wetter than average, but also much warmer than average summer.
04:45 Now, obviously, the warmth didn't necessarily coincide with the rainfall. We had a very wet July, slightly below average temperatures,
04:51 a very dry June with well above average temperatures. But it's interesting. Nevertheless, this one will stand out if it ends up,
05:00 which is what is currently suggested in the top 10 warmest summers on record, then it will be the only one with above average rainfall.
05:07 All the others significantly below average rainfall. That's enough on the stats. Let's move on to the weather.
05:13 And over the next few days, actually, well, below average temperatures are slightly more favoured than above average temperatures.
05:22 So, again, that could have an impact on the overall summer stats. So these are certainly provisional stats.
05:27 Still a few days to go and we'll give you a final update later this week or the start of next week.
05:32 But this is how it's looking for the rest of Tuesday. A lot of cloud cover across England and Wales.
05:37 We've got this weak weather front moving into Wales and southwest England. Now, if we fast forward 12 hours or so, that's clearing the southeast.
05:45 It turns more showery and some heavier bursts on it as it pushes into the continent,
05:48 whilst further showers push into the north and the west of the UK as we begin Wednesday.
05:53 And Wednesday's a day of sunny spells and showers, but I think brighter skies for England and Wales compared with Tuesday.
06:00 Less solid cloud around, a few more breaks about and the heaviest showers will be further north, I think largely dry towards the south and southwest.
06:09 Then a drier and clearer interlude on Wednesday evening.
06:12 But the next system is moving in for the final day of meteorological summer.
06:17 That's Thursday and it ends in a similar fashion to what we've experienced a lot of over the last few weeks.
06:26 A wet end to summer. Some outbreaks of heavier rain for a time as it pushes through.
06:31 It's a fragmenting system, so hit and miss rainfall as it pushes into Northern Ireland, Wales, central and southern England by the afternoon.
06:40 And it turns more showery as well. Wrapped up in this is some tropical air, so relatively humid conditions.
06:47 And it's slow to clear. Let's see if we've got some. We haven't got weather front.
06:52 We might do actually. There's there's the weather front pushing through, but there's this signal for a warm front or a waving front just to nudge some heavier rain back in to the south and southeast there.
07:06 As we start off Friday, a little bit of uncertainty about that.
07:10 Now, if I pause it there, midday Friday and you can see that warm front just pushing, pushing some heavier showers back into the southeast.
07:18 Mix of sunny spells and showers across Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, southwest England, by the way, at this time.
07:23 But for many places, it's drier and brighter. Once again, on Thursday, this front is interesting because.
07:32 If we take a look at the spaghetti chart for Friday morning, so-called because, well, looks like coloured spaghetti.
07:41 This shows the position of warm fronts and cold fronts from all the different computer model runs that we do.
07:48 Met Office. This is from Met Office model.
07:51 And it shows there's some uncertainty about the position of the warm front and the cold front.
07:58 Most of the runs clear the cold front, warm front coupler into the continent.
08:04 But a few of them have that one front placed over southern parts of England.
08:08 A few of them have it even further north. That's the UK, by the way.
08:12 So just a bit of uncertainty there on Friday.
08:15 And if that warm front and cold front are a bit slower to clear, then we could have some heavier rain for a time in the far south and southeast.
08:23 But once that's out of the way. Well, the next frontal system out of the Atlantic.
08:28 Well, signal there just indicates some warm air being pushed north over the Atlantic to the west of the UK.
08:37 And that's associated with some hurricanes or at least one hurricane and one fairly deep area of low pressure.
08:46 That is Hurricane Franklin. But before I talk about Hurricane Franklin, I just want to talk about Hurricane Italia, which is this system here.
08:57 And Hurricane Italia is forecast to rapidly intensify over the next 24 hours.
09:03 So let's pause it there. Pause button. There it is. And Hurricane Italia currently, well, it's just been named as a hurricane at 10 a.m.
09:13 local time on 10 a.m. UK time, I should say, on Tuesday.
09:18 And over the next 24 hours, the National Hurricane Center predict that it will rapidly intensify as it approaches the Gulf Coast of Florida into a Category 3 hurricane.
09:29 So that's a sustained wind speed of 111 miles per hour and over.
09:34 And the reason it's expected to rapidly intensify is because the sea surface temperatures in this region are a few degrees above average, 30, 31 Celsius or so.
09:43 Combined with what we've got in the upper atmosphere, this little kink in the upper winds, this trough that will just help to not only deepen it by sucking up some air from above,
09:55 but also it will help to steer it towards Florida. So we've got this rapid intensification of this hurricane currently Category 1,
10:01 but over the next 24 hours ending up as a Category 3 monster and pushing towards the Gulf Coast of Florida.
10:09 What kinds of impacts are we likely to see? Well, obviously, you've got the hurricane or the major hurricane force winds, 111 miles per hour sustained,
10:18 even higher with the gusts, and really significant sea surge along the Florida Gulf Coast.
10:25 So Tampa Bay, Big Bend region of Florida, 8 to 12 feet above ground level.
10:32 That's a really significant storm surge and rainfall in excess for initially western parts of Cuba, in excess of 100, perhaps 200 millimeters of rainfall in some places.
10:45 And for parts of Florida, also 250 millimeters of rainfall as that hurricane moves through.
10:52 It's still going to be a tropical storm or hurricane as it crosses Florida, and eventually it will wind itself down somewhere to the east of Florida.
11:01 But the official track, let's bring that up. There it is. This is Hurricane Idalia.
11:09 And you can see how it rapidly intensifies into a major hurricane for the start of Wednesday, US time, or at least Florida time,
11:17 and then stays as a hurricane as it pushes into Georgia, South Carolina, then as a tropical storm and then eventually just winds itself down.
11:27 So a really significant system. And then we've also got another hurricane that is currently a very powerful system.
11:36 But thankfully, at the moment, nowhere near land, although this Hurricane Franklin is expected to pass relatively close to Bermuda.
11:46 And although it's not expected to directly hit Bermuda and the winds won't be as strong as they are now as it moves north,
11:56 it will likely bring some dangerous coastal conditions to Bermuda and also parts of the east of the US.
12:02 Now, it does move through and it gets picked up by these upper level winds and quite quickly it gets shunted north.
12:10 When this happens, it joins the mid-Atlantic, it joins the mid-latitudes, it quickly diminishes.
12:16 But it can, because these are small but potent systems, they have a lot of energy associated with them,
12:23 well, they can impact our weather then by changing the shape of the jet stream, by changing the position of highs and lows in the mid-latitudes.
12:30 And so this is Wednesday. If we skip forward to Thursday, you can see it's making its way north.
12:37 There's another fairly deep low and a bit of uncertainty at the moment about not only how this low and this low will interact with the jet stream,
12:47 but also how they'll impact each other and how they'll bounce around each other.
12:51 So still a few things to play out. And things are never certain when it comes to hurricanes and how they interact with the jet stream
12:59 and how they end up in the mid-latitudes and affect our weather.
13:02 But it looks likely that the warm air that circulates around both of these areas of low pressure will push the jet stream well to the north.
13:14 And so this is one of the ways in which hurricanes can impact our weather.
13:20 One way is for hurricanes to end up as X hurricanes in the mid-latitudes and bring wind and rain to the UK.
13:29 But another way is for them to just buckle the jet stream and to push it out of the way of the UK.
13:35 And what you're seeing here, the first low pushing the jet stream to the north over Iceland and then Hurricane Franklin coming along.
13:43 And the warmth, the tropical warmth circulating around that system, again reinforcing that ridge in the jet stream.
13:52 And by the time we get to the weekend, this big ridge in the jet stream is starting to affect the UK.
13:58 We've still got this dip in the jet stream, what we call an upper trough, somewhat necking over southern parts of the UK.
14:07 So you wouldn't rule out some showers across southern parts of England, for example, as that happens.
14:13 But it increasingly looks likely to begin to affect Iberia.
14:19 And there's this signal, let's put on the rainfall there, for some very heavy rainfall for the Balearics, for Iberia into the weekend.
14:28 With low pressure here, with the jet stream circulating around it and becoming cut off, some very stormy weather potentially,
14:37 whilst high pressure builds over the UK with the ridge of high pressure and the ridge of the jet stream over the UK.
14:44 So a couple of low pressures, the mid-latitude low that's fairly intense, pushing the jet stream to the north.
14:51 And then that Hurricane Franklin come along and really reinforcing that bulge in the jet stream so that it increasingly affects the UK.
14:58 And may well affect the UK for some time.
15:03 So, yeah, Hurricane Franklin could bring some hazardous conditions, some dangerous conditions to Bermuda, coastal parts of the US as well.
15:11 But it's also going to affect the UK indirectly by changing the shape of the jet stream, by reinforcing this area of high pressure as it builds into the weekend.
15:22 How long will that high last? Well, there's always uncertainty when you look further ahead, but there are reasonable signals.
15:29 This is for next week, for example, from the European set of models.
15:34 And this shows the pressure anomaly through next week, Monday to Monday.
15:40 So from Monday, the 4th of September to Monday, the 11th of September.
15:44 And it's got this signal for higher than average pressure just to the west of the UK, perhaps extending across the UK from the southwest.
15:52 It's also got a signal for low pressure over the continent.
15:55 And you wouldn't rule out the possibility of some heavier showers perhaps affecting southern parts of England in this kind of scenario.
16:03 But it looks fairly likely that through the first week of September, we're more likely to see higher pressure extending across the UK, bringing plenty of fine weather.
16:11 What does that mean? In reality, it means plenty of sunny spells, a lot of dry and fine weather, light winds.
16:18 Now, this high pressure builds in a relatively cool air mass.
16:22 And so we're not expecting a heat wave by any means.
16:25 But temperatures with some decent sunny spells would probably end up just above average for the time of year.
16:31 We're talking about mid 20s generally in the south, I think high teens, low 20s further north.
16:37 And perhaps some cooler nights at times with some mist and fog, which of course we're increasingly likely to get at this time of year.
16:45 What about beyond the first week of September?
16:47 This looks at the second week, Monday, the 11th of September to Monday, the 18th of September.
16:55 And it shows this signal for higher than normal pressure across much of the UK and particularly to the north and northeast of the UK.
17:01 So there's this sign that as high pressure extends across the UK at the start of September, it will increasingly build over Scandinavia and perhaps give us a bit more of an east of the airflow in this kind of setup.
17:13 You've still got a signal for lower than normal pressure over Spain and Portugal, North Africa and so on.
17:19 So those are the most likely scenarios to play out in the first half of September.
17:24 It's not unusual, of course, at this time of year for the weather to settle down.
17:29 It's what Professor Hubert Lamb, a famous climatologist, found when he looked at 100 years of weather patterns back in the 50s and 60s.
17:37 And he found that at the start of September, certainly the first week or two of September, there's often a situation where the weather settles down.
17:45 High pressure is a bit more in charge of the UK weather.
17:48 And it's a fairly reliable signal from year to year. Actually, I'm sure many of you can remember the weather settling down when the schools return from previous years.
17:58 And, yeah, that's how it's looking for the second week of September.
18:02 So a couple of hurricanes to look out for.
18:06 They could still throw up some spanners into the works.
18:10 But overall, the weather looks likely to settle down with high pressure building at the start of September.
18:15 A few more days of August to go, though, and a few more days of showers or longer spells of rain before that high builds.
18:22 Thank you for joining me for this week's Deep Dive. Hope you enjoyed it.
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18:31 We like reading your comments and ask us a question. Ask us for any topics you'd like covered in future deep dives.
18:37 And we will add them to the list, which is growing ever bigger each week.
18:41 Thanks again. Bye bye for now.
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