- 2 days ago
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 14/01/2026. Wet and windy in the south on Thursday then a slack flow will develop this weekend bringing fog for many. Cold air could make a return for the end of the month. Bringing you this week’s 10 Day Trend is Alex Burkill.
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You may also enjoy:
– Deep dive in-depth forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZGnhyYdlEpdYrjZ-Pmj2rt
– Podcasts exploring weather and climate https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_brL5mcfsqI4cu42ueHttv0
– Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL
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NewsTranscript
00:00There has been some talk of the cold, harsh weather returning across the UK as we go through later this month.
00:07That's more likely beyond this 10-day period, but I will touch on it later.
00:11Currently, we're looking at an area of low pressure that's developing to the southwest of the UK.
00:16This is being driven by the jet stream pushing its way northeastwards towards us.
00:21There has been a fair amount of uncertainty about this feature.
00:25Earlier on in the week, several model runs wanted this much deeper, more intense than it currently looks like it's going to be.
00:32Nonetheless, we can expect some pretty wet, also blustery weather pushing across the southern, southeastern third of the UK as we go through Thursday.
00:41We do have a warning out for some south, southeastern parts of England because quite widely we're looking at 20 to 30 millimeters, perhaps 40 to 50 millimeters in some places.
00:50That's enough to cause some localized flooding, some travel disruption.
00:53And with the rain, yes, it is also going to be quite windy, particularly towards those south, southeastern coasts.
00:59Elsewhere, and it's worth highlighting, although it's pretty soon, there is still some discrepancy between the models.
01:07This is Met Office data, albeit ever so slightly modified to bring the rain a bit further west.
01:12But ECMWF, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, that has the feature more developed, so more intense rain, a little bit further west and a little bit slower to push through.
01:24So bear that in mind when you're looking about the timings of the rain and the position.
01:28It could be a little bit further west, more into Wales, and it could take a little while longer to clear away.
01:33But other places actually having some decent fine weather.
01:37Much of Northern Ireland, large chunks of Scotland just away from the west, northwest, where we have a scattering of showers, and these could still be wintry, some sleet, some snow over higher ground.
01:45Now, temperatures are a little bit below average for the time of year towards the north, milder towards the south, but obviously it's wet and windy here.
01:51As I mentioned, that rain then clears away towards the east, but some uncertainty as to how quickly it does so, depending on which model you look at.
01:58And then thereafter, drier, clearer weather following in behind.
02:02There could be a bit of frost as we go overnight, Thursday night into Friday, and also some pockets of mist and fog first thing on Friday as well.
02:09Otherwise, as we go into Friday, and there is an area of low pressure to the west of the UK.
02:14It's quite a slack flow around this low pressure, but nonetheless, nearer towards it, you can see the isobars a bit tighter, closer together.
02:23There are various occlusions coming through, and so it's towards the west-southwest of the UK where we're going to see some blustery winds, and also the focus for the showers on Friday.
02:34Some of these showers could be quite heavy.
02:36There could be thundery.
02:37There could be some lightning, some hail mixed in with them, and there may be some bands of showers making their way across the whole of the country.
02:43But really, west and southwestern parts are likely to see plenty of showers.
02:47Further east, a greater chance of staying dry.
02:50Some sunshine around, but temperatures, well, similar to Thursday, really.
02:53Mid-single figures, peaks in the north, just about getting into double figures towards the south, obviously with less rain and more sunshine around, possibly feeling a little bit warmer, but it's still not especially warm.
03:05Then, through Friday night and into Saturday, the low pressure that I mentioned sitting somewhere around southern parts of Ireland, that's going to fill.
03:14So we're going to feel its influence a little bit less as we go through this weekend.
03:18So the winds will be easing, and there will be fewer showers around, still some showers as we go overnight into Saturday.
03:23But a bigger talking point will be the visibility.
03:27By that, I mean there's likely to be quite a lot of low cloud, some murkiness, that low cloud leading to some fog, some mist in quite a few places as we wake up on Saturday morning.
03:36And even in places where we don't get the low cloud, where we get some breaks, we could see some radiation fog developing.
03:43As a result, there will be a lot of visibility issues on Saturday morning.
03:47It could be quite murky, quite foggy for a fair few of us.
03:51Then, through the day, still some showers around, most likely towards western parts, the odd heavy one perhaps, but they don't look as intense or as likely to be thundery as on Friday.
04:01And whilst a few showers may push their way north and eastwards, many eastern parts will stay largely dry.
04:06There should be some breaks in the cloud on Saturday, so some of us will see some sunshine.
04:11But actually, a fair few places will stay stuck under that cloud.
04:15It could be quite thick, quite low in places, even some fog could linger through much of the day.
04:20And so, although temperatures don't look too far below average for the time of year, if you are stuck under that cloud, well, it really is going to feel pretty cold indeed.
04:30Then Saturday into Sunday, that low's filled entirely, so a very slack flow across the country, which is why we're seeing those visibility issues, because that slack flow not able to clear anything away.
04:42So Sunday, again, a foggy start for a fair few of us.
04:45And then probably the drier day of the weekend, not totally dry.
04:49There will be a few spots of rain here and there, and potential for a bit of rain to push into parts of East Anglia and Kent maybe.
04:56But for most, yes, the drier day, just to be aware, there could be a fair amount of cloud and some fog lingering yet again.
05:04Then there is a weather system out towards the west.
05:06This is Met Office data. EC data has this a little bit further west, and so not pushing in quite as quickly.
05:13Nonetheless, there's a reasonable chance that we're going to see things burning more changeable as we go into the beginning of next week.
05:18So Monday, likely to bring a bit more wet weather compared to Sunday.
05:22Not that hard. Sunday's looking largely dry.
05:25But what happens thereafter?
05:27Let's go deeper as we go through next week.
05:30And here I have the probability plot.
05:32Remember, there are different colours indicating the most likely pressure set up and the wind direction then influencing the UK.
05:38So southwesterly dominated at the moment with that low pressure that's coming in.
05:43And then the reds coming more prevalent as we go through into next week.
05:48Reds indicating high pressure nearby, but the position of the high is quite important.
05:52Perhaps the most dominant colour is this bright red, indicating a Scandinavian high as we go through next week.
06:00So what does that look like?
06:01Well, if we look at Met Office data now and comparing the most likely setups for each day as we go through next week.
06:10This is Monday the 19th, and it's going with around a 44% chance of a Scandinavian high.
06:15And in this setup, remember, our winds go in a clockwise direction around high pressure.
06:20So we would be dragging in our winds from a southeasterly direction, not especially cold, but there could be a bit of chill to it.
06:28Worth looking at the second and third most likely setups.
06:31The second most likely setup with a percentage chance of around 20% has high pressure building across much of the country.
06:38So maybe Monday won't be that changeable.
06:40But the third most likely, albeit with just a 12% chance, that brings that high pressure.
06:46Instead of sticking over Scandinavia, it brings it a little bit closer towards the UK.
06:52And in this instance, it brings more of an easterly, and that could be quite a cold wind that comes in.
06:57Now, that's looking fairly unlikely, but it's a sign of the possibilities of what we could see developing as we go through next week.
07:04So there is a chance that we could drag in some colder air again.
07:08Otherwise, as we go through next week, the Scandinavian high always looks the most likely setup.
07:13But the second and third, they change a little bit.
07:15There is some low pressure nearby, and that could push its way through.
07:20And so there will be some rain around maybe at times.
07:23But I think generally it's going to be bashing up against this high pressure towards the northeast.
07:27And so there are question marks as to exactly how far that's going to push across the UK.
07:32If we look now towards Thursday, and it's similar really to Tuesday and Wednesday, the most likely setup.
07:36Still high pressure over Scandinavia.
07:38Second, not too dissimilar, but the third just indicating that there is low pressure pushing its way through.
07:44And then Friday, again, sticking with that Scandinavian high.
07:47Now, we can look at that in a slightly different way if we look at our ECMWF pressure anomaly chart for next week.
07:54So starting Monday the 19th of January.
07:56And the pinky colors indicating much higher than average pressure across Scandinavia.
08:03So this looks pretty set on in as much as it does look like we are going to get high pressure building across Scandinavia as we go through next week.
08:13But exactly how far that pushes southwestwards?
08:16Well, that's all important because there is low pressure or lower than average pressure towards the south-southwest of us most likely.
08:23And then we end up sort of in a battleground between these two features.
08:27And as much as we go through next week, there are sort of going to be three setups, particularly towards the end.
08:33So as we go through towards the weekend, the 24th, 25th of January.
08:37With that in mind, what I mean is high pressure could stay towards the northeast, but it could extend a little bit further southwestwards, bringing that colder air.
08:47As I mentioned, if we get that easterly, we could get some cold air pushing in across us.
08:50But with the influence of the high, it would actually be largely dry.
08:54Alternatively, the low pressure winds out and it pushes its way in from the southwest.
08:58And so things would be milder, but also quite wet.
09:01And there could be some spells of rain.
09:03Or we get a sort of combination of the two.
09:06We have that cold air coming in across us with a bit of an easterly.
09:09And then we have the low pressure bashing against it across the UK.
09:13If that comes off, well, that could bring some particularly hazardous weather.
09:17Now, it's awfully far ahead.
09:18I'm talking, you know, 11, 12 days ahead at the moment.
09:21But there are just some signs that we could have something similar to that.
09:25But it's one of the fair few possibilities of what could happen as we go through next week.
09:30Temperature-wise, and if we look at the temperature anomaly from ECMWF,
09:35and it looks like, if anything, temperatures are going to be a little bit below average for the time of year.
09:40And so, you know, particularly when we get a lot of cloud, which is what we're going to have through this weekend,
09:45if you get a lot stuck under the cloud, it's going to feel pretty cold,
09:48even if the temperatures don't look markedly below average for the time of year.
09:53Another way to look at our temperatures, and I've just picked London as a guide
09:57because it kind of showed the trend that I was trying to, well, that I'm expecting based on the pattern.
10:03And there's generally a downward trend when it comes to our temperatures as we go through the next week, two weeks or so.
10:09But it's not a huge drop-off.
10:11However, as we go towards the end of this 10-day period, so Friday the 23rd, you can see some model runs.
10:17Remember, this is based on an ensemble.
10:18And so an ensemble is when the models run lots of different times with ever-so-slightly different conditions
10:24to give you an idea of probability to show the different possible outcomes, what could happen many days ahead.
10:31And some model runs are going markedly lower than they are at the moment.
10:34So it's kind of either going to stay similar or a little bit colder than what we currently have,
10:39or it could potentially get quite a bit colder than we currently have,
10:44which goes in line with what I said with the position of that high pressure over Scandinavia.
10:49Whatever happens, I know some outlets are already getting very excited about the potential for some harsh cold weather to return.
10:55But as we get nearer time, we'll firm up on the details and obviously we'll keep you updated.
11:01Bye-bye.
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