10 Day Trend 03/09/2025 – More wet and windy weather - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 03/09/2025.   The unsettled theme continues through much of the next 10 days.   Bringing you this week’s 10 Day Trend is Alex Burkill.

Transcript

00:00Well, we said autumn was going to get off to an unsettled autumnal start, and it's fair to say that it has.

00:06And that's the theme that we'll take through the next 10 days or so as well.

00:10Let's look at the bigger picture, though, and we do have low pressure across the country at the moment,

00:14which is why we've had plenty of heavy, showery rain around, even some rumbles of thunder.

00:19That low's actually clearing away towards the north, but then there's an occluded front that's pushing its way in from the southwest.

00:25That's going to feed across parts of England and Wales as we go through Thursday,

00:28and this brings the focus for some heavy, thundery, showery rain.

00:33Now, it's kind of in a line running from South Wales through the Midlands up towards the Humber,

00:38where we have the greatest risk of some intense, thundery downpours.

00:42We do have a warning out because we're looking at the potential for 30 to 60 millimetres perhaps in just an hour or so.

00:48That's enough to cause some flash flooding in a few places.

00:52And even elsewhere away from the warning area, there will be quite a few showers around, and some of them could be heavy.

00:57There'll be some bright, sunny spells in between, and actually the showers are going to be easing as we go later on.

01:03That's because things are set to turn a bit drier for many of us as we go through into Friday.

01:08Notice lower pressure further away as we go through into Friday,

01:12and actually there's an area of higher pressure towards the south of us, and this is starting to build.

01:17So that's going to settle our weather down, albeit only for a short period of time.

01:22Friday then, looking largely fine, not totally dry, a few showery bursts across some western parts through the morning.

01:29Otherwise, a good deal of dry, often sunny weather, though perhaps a bit more cloud bubbling up as we go into the afternoon,

01:35and a few more showers developing here or there, most of us though having the driest day of the week.

01:41Towards the far northwest of Scotland, maybe a bit more thicker cloud, a bit of rain,

01:46and some blustery winds pushing in, but most places, yeah, staying largely dry and just a few showers to watch out for, perhaps.

01:53Then, as we go into the weekend, and let's look at the other side of the Atlantic,

01:57because there are a few things I want to highlight.

01:59There's an area of low pressure that's heading our way.

02:02More on that in a second.

02:03But actually, we have a double jet stream set up, and as much as we have this southerly jet,

02:10which is going to be the driving force initially for this area of low pressure, but also a more northerly jet.

02:16And it's this one that I want to pay attention to, because if we run it through the next few days,

02:20and actually this more northerly jet, it's going to get influenced by an upper trough,

02:25and then it's going to start to extend a little bit further southwards,

02:29and as it does so, it's going to sort of merge with the more southerly jet,

02:33and then that combined jet is going to strengthen this low pressure as it heads towards the UK.

02:40So it's going to be the driving force pushing it through and leading to this low pressure deepening.

02:45Before that, it's kind of staying a little bit out towards the west as we go through at least the beginning part of the weekend.

02:51So actually, a good deal of fine weather still on Saturday, high pressure towards the east,

02:56so low pressure towards the west.

02:58But as we go through into Sunday, this low pressure system, it's going to sort of throw the fronts across the country,

03:06which is why we are going to see some more unsettled weather at times.

03:09So definitely Sunday looking like the wetter, the windier day of the weekend.

03:14One other thing that I did want to highlight is the fact that even though there's some unsettled weather around,

03:19we are actually dragging in some relatively warm air.

03:23And so, you know, on paper, temperatures on Sunday could get into the mid, possibly even high 20s.

03:30But I actually think that's quite unlikely, because if we run through now the weather that we're expecting through this weekend,

03:35and as I mentioned, the low pressure staying out towards the west on Saturday,

03:39so actually most places having a good deal of fine weather,

03:42there may be some high-level clouds, so the sunshine can be a bit hazy at times,

03:46and turning a bit wetter, windier across the far west later on.

03:49But it's not really until Sunday when the real effect of this low pressure out towards the west of us is going to be felt,

03:56and it's going to then drive some very, well, wet and at times windy weather through.

04:01And with that, there'll be some cloud around,

04:02and so although we have that warm air across us because of the unsettled cloudy weather,

04:07I'm not really expecting temperatures to get especially high, low 20s perhaps in some places.

04:12Now, this area of low pressure is looking quite deep.

04:16We're looking at the potential for it to get to around 975, 980.

04:20So we do need to watch out for the strong winds,

04:22but also the heavy rain that's coming through as we go through Sunday.

04:26I wanted to show you some rainfall totals.

04:29Now, this is a little bit unclear.

04:30So let's zoom down into the details,

04:33and lots of places are likely to see rainfall in the 10 to 30mm kind of bracket as we go through the whole day.

04:41But there are a couple of places which are being pinpointed on the model.

04:45You can see the yellows where we could get potentially 50 to 60.

04:48Now, there are still some question marks,

04:50some uncertainty as to exactly how quickly this is going to come through

04:53and exactly where we're going to see the heaviest rain.

04:55So don't take these peaks too literally at this stage,

04:58but nonetheless, be prepared.

05:00It could be quite a wet day.

05:02Then on Monday, still heavily under the influence of this low pressure center.

05:05I think it's probably going to be at its deepest later Sunday as we go into Monday.

05:09So still some very unsettled weather to start the working week.

05:13And with that, yes, heavy rain pushing through and even some strong winds still.

05:17So an unsettled story for now.

05:20And really, that's the theme through much of next week.

05:23If we look at the three most likely setups for next Tuesday,

05:27and they're all pretty similar.

05:28The most likely setup has that low pressure that's developing,

05:31shifting just a bit towards the northwest.

05:33But the second and third have the low pressure systems a fair bit closer.

05:39And so if these came off, then it would be another pretty wet and windy day.

05:43If this one comes off, then slightly less wet and windy because the low is a bit further away.

05:48But nonetheless, the unsettled theme pushing through.

05:51Now, worth bearing in mind that the shaded colors, the blues,

05:54are indicating where it's going to be wetter than is seasonal average.

05:58So not necessarily dry everywhere else, just wetter than seasonal average where the blues are.

06:04If we run through another day and we go towards Wednesday,

06:06and this time the most likely setup has that low pressure a bit closer towards us.

06:10So a wetter day perhaps.

06:12And again, the second and third most likely setups still quite similar,

06:16all going with the idea of low pressure somewhere around the north, northwest or west of the UK.

06:22And it's a similar story on Thursday and a similar story on Friday.

06:26It will be starting to see the low pressure drift away in some model runs,

06:30but by no means all of them, many keeping that low pressure nearby, that unsettled theme.

06:34Because of the position of the low pressure generally towards the northwest of the UK,

06:39you would always expect the rain to be heaviest and the strongest winds across western parts of the country.

06:45Further east, a greater chance of staying dry.

06:47But even here, I am expecting some wet weather to push through at times as well.

06:52Now, looking, well, through the next two weeks,

06:55one thing that we often show you is this probabilistic pressure trend chart.

06:59And I wanted to highlight it because, well, in last week's 10-day trend,

07:03I hinted by around the, well, by the 7th, 8th of September,

07:09there were some signs of higher pressure returning.

07:12But that now looks less likely, which is why it's likely that we're going to stick with this unsettled autumnal theme,

07:19really, as we go through the next 10 days.

07:22And whilst there are some signs of higher pressure returning kind of again in the end of the 10-day period,

07:29kind of similar to what I said last week, but just been delayed a week,

07:33I'm not too confident about this.

07:35Because notice, the reds have become less intense with more recent model runs.

07:39So whilst it looked a bit more likely with older model runs, it's looking less and less likely.

07:45So I think it may be slightly less unsettled, perhaps, as we go towards the back end of next week,

07:50but not necessarily a big, whacking great area of high pressure or any settled weather that's going to last particularly long,

07:57something to keep an eye out for.

07:58We often talk of the 6- to 10-day ridge, and I think that's what we're seeing at the moment.

08:03It's a ridge of high pressure that appears in model runs, but it's always around 10 days ahead,

08:08and it just keeps getting pushed back, and I think in this instance it may never actually come off.

08:13Nonetheless, I'm expecting the weather to quieten down a little bit, but perhaps not totally quiet.

08:19So in summary, through the next 10 days, really, it's staying unsettled.

08:23Most of us, if not all of us, will see some showers or even some longer spells of rain,

08:27which could lead to some rainfall totals building up.

08:30Many of you may be saying that's well needed, and in some parts it truly is.

08:34But with that, we will also have some strong winds, coastal gales, that kind of thing,

08:38and temperatures around average, maybe a little bit below at times,

08:41obviously in the unsettled weather feeling fairly unpleasant.

08:44But there will be some drier spells Friday, Saturday, for example, largely dry,

08:48so not feeling too bad in those drier periods.

08:51Of course, we will be keeping you up to date with the forecast through the next 10 days,

08:55so make sure you subscribe to our YouTube channel so you'll never miss one of those.

09:00We'll have the weekend forecast, for example, tomorrow.

09:03I'll see you again soon. Bye-bye.

10 Day Trend 03/09/2025 – More wet and windy weather

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