00:0111 o'clock hour here on Cody and Gold, Alex Gold, Cody Tapp, Drew Nixon, Drew Nixon under
00:06fire on the text line.
00:08Give it, I look, I make one individual, I should say, I make a comparison for, for the
00:13Knicks and it has no relation to the Cincinnati Bengals.
00:16And this person brings them up every day.
00:20He told you there, nobody, he said, nobody likes the Bengals more than this person.
00:25He said, nobody gives a damn about a cheap, worthless franchise that never has wanted
00:30anything.
00:30Then stop talking about them because you like them.
00:33He says, get a new team to waste your Jersey money on, Drew, LOL.
00:37That's from the 913.
00:38I don't know.
00:38This guy randomly just been going after you today.
00:40Rent free, man.
00:41It is.
00:41The Bengals are rent free in this person's head because they, they, they mentioned it
00:45first.
00:45Yeah.
00:46Keep on talking.
00:47Am I the a-hole?
00:48That's the question that guy might need to ask as well.
00:52Mm-hmm.
00:53We're going to find out.
00:54That was a good drop from earlier today.
00:55Thank you for that.
00:55I was just trying to ask a question for later.
00:59We're going to, we're going to find out more or the random question.
01:01I think I'm fine.
01:02Reminder today, uh, 1230, Josh Fern, you're our Royals insider.
01:05Going to join us at 1240.
01:06We'll find out if Cody's an a-hole and sometimes around 115 chiefs, rookie running back Emmitt
01:11Johnson's going to call into the show.
01:13Is he back half of the show?
01:14Yeah.
01:14Looking forward to that a little bit later.
01:15Thinking of the chiefs in the run game though, and how Emmitt Johnson maybe factors into this.
01:19Uh, we'll give some credit to, uh, how about those chiefs, which is a fan account.
01:24Also, I think it's a cold does a great job over there at HBTC.
01:27And he was putting out some numbers about the chiefs rush play percentage.
01:31Cause we've talked a lot about, all right, the run game has to be more explosive needs
01:34to be more of a factor, but like how much do we really expect him to run the ball more?
01:38And these percentages he put out going all the way back to my homes is first gear.
01:43Yep.
01:432017, I think they'll surprise you where they, where they ranked.
01:47And so to limit and maybe rein in the expectation, if you think they're going to run the ball
01:52more like, okay, what's that really look like?
01:54So for example, last year they ran 40.5% of the time that was 27th in football.
01:59Now they were down a lot.
02:00That's the lowest or the second lowest they rank amongst any of these years.
02:03A couple other years I'll throw out 2024, 41%.
02:06That was 23rd, 2020.
02:07They ran at 37% of the time.
02:09That was 28th.
02:10That was the low water mark.
02:12Okay.
02:12And as you said, the most they ever ran, it was in 2017, his rookie season, 40.5% of
02:18the
02:18time.
02:18So I guess what we're saying is you shouldn't suddenly expect this number to be like 47%
02:23of the time.
02:23And honestly with Patrick Mahomes, once he's passed the first week or two of his, uh, re,
02:29you know, uh, reassertion into the, the NFL world, if you will, then I think we'll see
02:35it level back out.
02:36What do you think?
02:36You do think there's a scenario where chiefs rush play percentage will be anywhere near
02:41top half of the league.
02:43I know top half, like higher than 15th in the year in which they had Kareem hunt lead
02:49the NFL in rushing.
02:52They still weren't top half.
02:54So do I think there's a world in which Ken Walker puts him above that marker?
02:59No, like 42% of the time.
03:02So that gets them to like 23rd in the league, 22nd, you know what I mean?
03:06That might be percentage.
03:07I mean, do you know how few teams ran?
03:08How many teams do you think ran over 50% of the time last season?
03:11Oh, in a time in which things are shifting in that direction more.
03:15Yeah.
03:15Five is correct.
03:16It is Baltimore, Buffalo, Seattle, Washington, and green Bay.
03:19Now what I'll say about at least four of those teams, those were either competitive or
03:25slightly competitive teams.
03:26Washington stunk.
03:26Um, but green Bay, Seattle, Baltimore, Buffalo, three of those were serious competitors.
03:32Baltimore was average and we know why they run more than other teams.
03:35They have Derek Henry and Lamar Jackson, one of the better running quarterbacks in NFL
03:39history.
03:39But even in a year in which Patrick Mahomes didn't play a portion of the season towards
03:44the end, they were still at the bottom.
03:47The question I guess I have, as it relates to, do I think it's going to go way up?
03:50No, but do I think that got to get back into the like lower part of the twenties?
03:54Yeah, I think stop being 27th to 28th and be like 24th, 23rd, you know, put yourself
04:02back into a range where at least you're competitive because in looking at the standings here, I
04:07will say a large chunk of the better teams who throw it the way you throw it.
04:10They aren't at the bottom of the pass rate and they aren't at the top necessarily, but
04:15they are firmly closer in that like 20 to 23 range.
04:19Don't you think though, more than anything, it's going to be okay.
04:21Out of that percentage, how many are under center?
04:23How, you know, what's going to matter to that?
04:25How many more explosive, what's your explosive play rate out of that same, within that same
04:30percentage?
04:32And so, yes, we can talk about bumping it up to running, you know, 43% of the time,
04:38but okay, let's say it's still 40% of the time they run the ball, but of that 40%,
04:42are they just way more effective?
04:43Are they more explosive?
04:44How many runs from Kenneth Walker of 15 or more yards are in, in that percentage?
04:49That's ultimately what's going to matter more than suddenly I tell you, they run the
04:52ball, you know, four more times a game or whatever the math would work out to be to
04:56bump the percentage up.
04:58I think it is clearly the effective nature of it, the explosive nature, RPO versus under
05:03center.
05:04And how do they, what's the breakdown within that percentage last year of RPO versus under
05:09center?
05:09And how does that part change?
05:11What's crazy is like, you would still think that the chiefs, God, is this right?
05:14Is this what they were last year?
05:16Oh, that's 2019.
05:17Ah, I was like, what is wrong?
05:18This is an old stat in 2019.
05:20They ran under center 72% of the time, 72%.
05:26They used to run under center.
05:27They used to actually be a portion of that.
05:30They shifted their offense in order to go the opposite direction.
05:33They weren't anywhere close to that number last year, but they've got to get closer to
05:38like the low forties.
05:41Like I look at this as like, who are the teams that throw the way they throw who are good
05:45teams
05:46that they can mimic.
05:46And I look at like, you know, the chargers were 21st in run pass and run rate, right?
05:52Denver was 24th in run rate, although they do a lot of run game off their past game, similar
05:57to Kansas city, right?
05:58Houston was 18th, San Francisco, 15th at 44%.
06:03I don't see it or Jacksonville, 44% at 14th.
06:06I don't know why you can't be closer to that range.
06:09Look, they've never ranked 14th.
06:11We just pointed it out.
06:12They had the leading rusher in the NFL.
06:14They didn't get past 23rd or 21st.
06:16They've never even gotten into the teens.
06:18So I don't think all of a sudden that's good.
06:20You have Andy reads, the NFL has changed a lot since 2017.
06:23It has, but like Andy reads the head coach and patch moves your quarterback.
06:27There is, there is a limitation of how often you want them to run the ball anyway.
06:30No, I want them.
06:31Yeah.
06:31And that's more than fair.
06:32I don't want to make, I don't want to make it seem like all of a sudden I want them
06:35to be a run heavy football team.
06:36I don't, I want them to pass the ball, but like, do I think that this is going to be
06:40the highest rate they've had since 2017?
06:42Yes.
06:432017.
06:43Why was it so high?
06:44They had their best running back out of any of those other years.
06:47Yeah.
06:482018.
06:48All of them on.
06:49This is the best running back they've had since rookie year, Kareem Hunt in 2017.
06:53So like, I assume they will be higher at run rate than they've been since that moment.
06:58I think so.
06:58Ken Walker will be a big part of that.
07:00I also just think let's, let's monitor.
07:02What do they do the first two weeks of the season or first month?
07:04Assuming Mahomes is playing, right?
07:07And what do they do come November when he's even further out?
07:10We don't have to get into the debate again.
07:11Like Drew and I had about the a hundred percent recovery or whatever, but like when he is more
07:15established, how about that into the season?
07:17Do they handle it differently than they do in the first three weeks of the season?
07:21I would think so, but that's also going to boost the overall season numbers.
07:24And I think they should run early as an effort to convince teams who are serious about it.
07:29Kenneth Walker had the second best explosive run rate in the NFL last year.
07:33That was despite facing some of the heaviest boxes in the NFL because Seattle ran all the
07:38time.
07:39They were one of, if not the top run pass teams, or they were like second or third last
07:44year in run rate.
07:45So like they run.
07:46And despite that, and NFL teams knowing that cream or Ken Walker was still one of the best
07:51explosive runners in the league.
07:53If you show that they can get 10, 15 yards on the regular with Kenneth Walker in the early
07:59part of the season, teams have to respect it.
08:01Then you can pass more.
08:01It should not just be for Patrick Mahomes health.
08:04It should be because you're trying to convince teams you're serious about this for the first
08:08time in forever.
08:09Because when I saw those numbers put out, we were talking about from how about those
08:11chiefs, you realize they've never been serious about it.
08:14They're not about that life.
08:15And for the most part, it hasn't hurt them because in all these years in 18, 19, 20,
08:20it's not like that a bad offense.
08:22It's not like they couldn't throw hell.
08:24If anything, they've, they've run it more during the last five years and they have the first
08:30five years and they were better offense for the first five, but that's because they could
08:33do more with less.
08:35They were a better threat in the run game, which allows you to actually throw and be successful
08:40and want to do it more.
08:41And so, and last year, I think it partially gets jumped up because they were behind a
08:45lot.
08:46You throw more when you're down double digits, all the stuff that got them in trouble in
08:50the early part of the season.
08:51But I do think that this number needs to get close as close to 2017 as it's been in years.
08:58They've only been, let's see.
09:01They've only been what above 40% three total times, including last year, by the way, that's
09:07what's crazy.
09:08The run rate last year, 40.53%.
09:11That was pretty much the exact same run rate as 2017.
09:14Six spots different.
09:15You want to know how much more teams are.
09:17Yeah.
09:17Teams are value.
09:17They're running back now more than they did five to seven years ago.
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