00:00Thinking of the chief. So let's start there this hour because OTAs are underway. I just saw the
00:04chief social media team putting out, you know, the, uh, the videos of the players walking into
00:09the facility. Uh, I don't, I think they're trying to start a nickname that isn't a nickname. Uh,
00:14we know Kenneth Walker has been on this show. He said, like, you can call me Kenneth, but I like
00:18Ken or K nine. The chiefs tweeted out Casey can is here. I didn't know that was, I don't know.
00:23That's a thing. Anyway, uh, OTAs are underway. Cody Walker, the running back. Yeah. Well,
00:29talk more. Uh, the first public one for media is Thursday, like you said, and then, um, hopefully
00:34hear from some of those guys later. But as a result of that, we did over-unders for some of
00:38the
00:38offensive players were over at Arrowhead pride. They've got some over-unders that were set on the
00:42defensive side of things. And I want to know whether or not you think the overs are possible
00:46and which of these you'd actually lock in. So let's just start with team sacks.
00:5143 is the projected sack total for the chiefs. They have not, as according to this article,
00:55top 40 sacks in a season since 2023. So that's a bad, I mean, I would take number. I would
01:02take 43 in an instant probably is the truth. Um, but the, but also am I to think that their
01:09pass rush is better than last year? I'd be forced to take the under from a predictive
01:13part. Wouldn't I? They haven't been over 40 sacks in three years. And it's not like they
01:18saw some massive improvement in that category, unless you just think you're getting more.
01:22They'd have been ranked, uh, 12th with 43 last lock. I mean, sure. That sounds fine
01:27to me. I mean, if you think they're going to reach 43 sacks as a unit for the first time
01:32since 2023, then that probably means you believe what you saw from Ashton Gelati that, okay,
01:39that he's building on that. And that's going to be an extra sack or two. That means you
01:42think Omar Norman lot is going to have four sacks this year. And then our Mason Thomas is going
01:49to chip in two or three or maybe four or four. Like, yeah, look, those are not insane
01:55predictions. Like saying that your second round draft pick could have four sacks is not like
02:00some absurd claim. The tough thing I mentioned in the first hour of the show is the, we don't
02:06know what this rotation, we think it's rotation, what it's going to be. My, my biggest concern
02:12defensively, and still maybe with the football team is outside of car loft is in Chris Jones.
02:17Yeah. How are they going to get pressure on the quarterback? I still haven't figured out
02:21because it's OTAs first day today. And we'll know maybe at training camp a bit more. What
02:26who's getting the majority of the snaps? Is it Ashton Gelati? Is no more, no more Norman
02:31lot filling in more than we think. Is it our Mason Thomas? Peter Woods? You know, I do think
02:36having Tonga and Woods next to Chris Jones on the interior is going to lead to more sacks.
02:41Not that those two guys are getting sacks, right? Tonga is not out here getting a bunch
02:45of sacks. I'm saying him being on the field should, should help things out for Chris Jones
02:51and therefore everybody else. And maybe that helps the sack number and helps Gelati get
02:55to five sacks all of a sudden. And that's how you get to 43 sacks as a unit. I mean,
02:59they did add two first and second round picks on the defensive line after spending a second
03:05and a third round pick on the defensive line last year. There's no reason to think that
03:09it shouldn't develop into being a better defensive line. And I'll be honest, they couldn't get
03:14less out of the other, out of those four guys. And they got out of them last year.
03:18And some of that's because Omar Norman lot got hurt, but because Charles, I'm in a Hugh
03:22and Mike Dana and company. So disappointing. Yeah. They didn't contribute at all. So even
03:27gold, if we're like medium optimistic about our Mason, Thomas, Peter Woods, Omar, Norman
03:32lot and Gelati, it's better. It just is. And they weren't that far off that number last
03:37year. I'll take league average projected interception total for the team. 12. They finished with 10
03:42last year, 12 and put them in a right around dead, even at league average interceptions is
03:46such to me is very, that is more fluky. That's more of a fluky thing. You can, you can be
03:51great
03:51from a coverage standpoint. And there's a lot of things that has to happen. Yes. There's some
03:55more, uh, is there a chance that some guys on some teams are more of the ball hawking type
04:01of corner or whatever. We've talked a ton about that with McDuffie, how he was never
04:04an interception guy. They go and draft a monster Delaney. It's not like this guy had a ton
04:09of interceptions in his college career. So he was more of a coverage guy, kind of like
04:13Trent. So what did you say they had last year? 10, 10. Yeah. They're probably going to be
04:17right in the 10 to 13, 10 to 12 range again. I don't think you could, like, it'd be weird
04:21to suddenly predict like, Oh yeah, Cody, they're going to have 15 interceptions this
04:25year. I that's that, that is such a fluky stat also, or one of those at random hail Mary
04:32before halftime. And yeah, you get a free interception and you know, you know, accounts
04:36on the stat sheet, but like that, I don't know. Some teams are better at taking the ball
04:39away. The chiefs, they need to be better at turning of years. If not been, if you just
04:42want to say they got to be better, turning the ball over forcing turnovers, absolutely.
04:46That matters more. And that's more predictive and that more, that is more telling of your overall
04:50unit than flat out saying, well, no, they didn't have 15 interceptions. They only had 12 of them.
04:54I think it's just, what's the, what's the forced turnover. So what's their fumble number?
04:59And I guess that's in this article to force fumbles. They had seven last year. Is that
05:03right? Seven was the predictive total this year. I think it was right around that number
05:06last year as well. So, I mean, but that one's another one where it's like total turnovers
05:11is more of a telling sign. Like you said, than the individuals be in the top half of total
05:15turnovers, the most interesting and last of the over-unders is 19.9 points per game allowed
05:23last year. Just so you know, there were 19.3, uh, 19.9 would have put them ninth just ahead
05:29of Jacksonville in the entire season, but this includes the postseason in fairness, not just
05:33the regular season. Well, the chiefs ended up finishing fifth in total points per game
05:36allowed for anybody in football last year. And 19.9 would put them top 10. Is it fair to
05:42say sub 20 again, nine teams finished with that eight teams finished that last year. The chiefs
05:48have finished probably sub 20. How many years in a row do you think it's been a one? They
05:53were 20.5. So only one, but they were still 20.5 is good for sixth the year before. So
05:58it's not like you need to go outside of that. Well, 17, 20, 23. And so they pretty much been
06:02in that range. I think that's very doable. And based on the resources they've committed
06:07there, I understand they traded away Trent McDuffie and they lost Jalen Watson, but the resources
06:10they've committed in free agency and the draft. Yeah. I mean, that, that should be the
06:14expectation. They better be. And I do think with the offense, if we think it's not the,
06:19it's not that they're going to just run the ball a ton more, but if they're more effective
06:23running the ball, you would like to think that leads to a little bit more of, of clock
06:27control. And early on in the season, are they going to protect my homes? We don't know.
06:31We all think they're going to do that a bit more. I think that could lead to, you know,
06:36the possession game a bit more, and that could lead to this number being even lower than we
06:41think. So, yeah, I mean, I, I would probably take the under on surprised if this defense
06:46was giving up more than 19 or more than 19 points per game. If it was really essentially
06:50just giving up 20, if you, if they gave you an over under that 19.9.5, right? So like
06:56you're just saying, either they're going to give up less than 20 points a game, or they're
06:59going to give up more than 20 points per game, even money odds. You take the under, I
07:02would, I think I would. I also, I mean, I would take it. And I'm also saying it because
07:06I like, it has to be that there's no excuse. It's the best way to be a playoff team
07:10this year. How many, I mean, they get, they signed a running back, but I don't want to
07:13make it seem like they did a bunch on offense outside of that. We can maybe talk about the
07:17offensive tackle competition. People might think exist this year, but I don't, but it's
07:22just like there's a, where's the right tackle people. There's a competition. I don't buy
07:26that. I don't buy that. I don't necessarily buy that either. So, but it's just like, they
07:30didn't do as much on there. So it's like, if you made me choose the over under nine and
07:35a half ranking for top 10 offense on over, right? I, I can't predict the top 10 offense
07:41yet until I see more improvement out of there. I know coming up in 10 minutes, we'll get to
07:45the trash.
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