In un mondo di incertezze geopolitiche e inflazione crescente, come possiamo proteggere e diversificare i nostri portafogli? Scopri il ruolo cruciale delle materie prime nell'asset allocation moderna.
Le asset class tradizionali come azioni e obbligazioni non sono più sufficienti per garantire resilienza. Le materie prime, con la loro capacità di performare in modo diverso, offrono opportunità strategiche per ottimizzare i tuoi investimenti in scenari complessi e volatili.
David Ward di Neuberger, Senior Vice President Commodities Team, ci guida attraverso i fattori chiave che stanno ridefinendo i mercati delle commodity. Dal deglobalization alla decarbonization, dalla corsa alla difesa all'interesse per l'oro, esploriamo le "disruptive Ds" che alimentano queste opportunità.
Scopri perché il rame è il nuovo petrolio, come la transizione energetica crea una forte domanda di metalli e quale impatto hanno i crescenti budget per la difesa. Approfondiamo anche il ruolo delle banche centrali nella de-dollarizzazione e l'impatto dell'intelligenza artificiale sui consumi energetici e delle materie prime.
#MateriePrime #Investimenti #Diversificazione #AssetAllocation
Le asset class tradizionali come azioni e obbligazioni non sono più sufficienti per garantire resilienza. Le materie prime, con la loro capacità di performare in modo diverso, offrono opportunità strategiche per ottimizzare i tuoi investimenti in scenari complessi e volatili.
David Ward di Neuberger, Senior Vice President Commodities Team, ci guida attraverso i fattori chiave che stanno ridefinendo i mercati delle commodity. Dal deglobalization alla decarbonization, dalla corsa alla difesa all'interesse per l'oro, esploriamo le "disruptive Ds" che alimentano queste opportunità.
Scopri perché il rame è il nuovo petrolio, come la transizione energetica crea una forte domanda di metalli e quale impatto hanno i crescenti budget per la difesa. Approfondiamo anche il ruolo delle banche centrali nella de-dollarizzazione e l'impatto dell'intelligenza artificiale sui consumi energetici e delle materie prime.
#MateriePrime #Investimenti #Diversificazione #AssetAllocation
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NovitàTrascrizione
00:03Come le materie prime possono essere utili per diversificare un portafoglio in un contesto
00:09geopolitico complicato? Lo scopriamo tra pochissimo su Stay Live dopo la sigla.
00:34Bentornati su Stay Live. Oggi parliamo di materie prime e del loro ruolo all'interno dei portafogli.
00:40Lo facciamo in una fase di mercato in cui inflazione, transizione energetica e nuove dinamiche geopolitiche
00:46stanno cambiando profondamente il quadro degli investimenti.
00:49Sempre più investitori si interrogano su come rendere i portafogli più resilienti e diversificati,
00:54andando oltre alle asset class tradizionali.
00:57In questo contesto le commodities stanno tornando sotto i riflettori grazie alla loro capacità
01:03di reagire in modo diverso rispetto ad azioni e obbligazioni e offrire potenziali benefici in scenari complessi.
01:09A guidarci in quest'analisi per capire come ottimizzare i portafogli in questo contesto
01:14ci colleghiamo con David Ward, Senior Vice President Commodities Team di Neuberger.
01:20Buongiorno e benvenuto.
01:23Buongiorno e benvenuto.
01:26In un mondo dominato da azioni e obbligazioni, perché includere le materie prime nell'asset
01:32allocation di portafoglio e soprattutto quale funzione svolgono nella sua ottimizzazione?
01:36Buongiorno.
01:39Buongiorno.
01:39Buongiorno.
01:41Buongiorno.
01:43Buongiorno.
01:43Partenzi con l'inflazione e il porsi sicuro.
01:46Si è spazietano in alto, questo crea una vraia chasera per gli investitori.
01:51La nuova realtà dell'inflazione che vi è accostato per molti anni fa.
01:58Siere potrebbero potregire una portafoglia di azioni e fondi, e si spaziano i fondi.
02:03Quando azioni, la fondi hanno un buon giorno, poi le fondi aiutare.
02:07Ma è non ancora il caso.
02:09So treasuries are now losing, on average, in the same months that stocks are losing.
02:15And the culprit behind this is inflation.
02:18Now you can look at Q1 of this year, right?
02:20The MSCI ACWI is down, Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index is down as well, and commodities
02:27are up.
02:28But this isn't just a Q1 story or a Middle East story, right?
02:33The same pattern shows up throughout history.
02:35This really is the value of commodities.
02:39They complete the picture.
02:41Commodities act like options or like insurance.
02:44So you're paying for this insurance in normal times.
02:47You pay for this when you're living in a disinflationary environment, when other asset classes are
02:51delivering very positive returns.
02:53But you reap the benefits of this insurance when inflation starts to creep up.
02:59And commodities deliver sizable, convex payoffs when you fall into the worst-case scenario,
03:07which is an inflationary slowdown, stagflation.
03:10That's when no other major asset class is paying off.
03:14So this is precisely the strategic case for commodities.
03:17Commodities really, like I said, complete the picture.
03:20They allow you to be more resilient across a wider spectrum of economic and market regimes.
03:26And this is why we believe you need commodities in your asset allocation.
03:30And in this scenario macroeconomical, dove risiedono le opportunità principali di investimento?
03:36Ovviamente, tra i mercati delle materie prime.
03:39Yeah, so we believe this is a particularly attractive moment for commodities right now.
03:45We see what we like to call the disruptive Ds, which are powering commodity markets now.
03:50These are the major trends that we see driving the most acute scarcity across commodities.
03:56So D number one is deglobalization.
03:59So this is a big theme.
04:01But in our view, the world is really becoming increasingly fragmented.
04:04So key inflationary commodities are supplied by only a handful of countries.
04:10There's an increasing push towards regionalization, duplicating capacity, increasing strategic inventories,
04:18near-shoring, friend-shoring access to raw materials.
04:22So tariffs, export controls, industrial policy, this all reinforces this.
04:28Deglobalization is really at its core inflationary.
04:31And we believe commodities are one of the best ways to be positioned for that.
04:35D number two, decarbonization.
04:38So I'll say here, copper is the new oil.
04:41The energy transition is really deeply metals dependent.
04:45So we're talking about copper, aluminum, nickel, other metals.
04:48And I want to emphasize that this isn't just a climate story.
04:52This is really an energy security and industrial policy story.
04:56And the current instability that we're seeing in the Middle East reinforces this even more.
05:01So regardless of political cycles, the incentives for local manufacturing, self-sufficiency, electrification, these all remain very powerful.
05:12D number three, defense.
05:14So we're living in a multipolar world.
05:17Defense budgets are rising.
05:19The new target for NATO is 5% for military spending.
05:23And defense spending is very materials heavy.
05:27So we're talking aluminum.
05:28We're talking other metals.
05:30We're talking energy.
05:30And on top of that, governments are strategically stockpiling oil.
05:35They're stockpiling refined products, rare earth minerals.
05:38This is all supportive for real assets.
05:42D number four, de-dollarization.
05:45So this here, we're thinking about gold.
05:48And in our view, gold's longer-term prospects here are very structural.
05:52So central banks are diversifying away from the dollar.
05:55They're de-dollarizing.
05:56And they're accumulating gold instead.
05:58And gold acts like a hedge against currency debasement.
06:02And in our view, this demand from central banks is durable and structural.
06:07It's a durable structural tailwind.
06:09Last two Ds here.
06:11So D number five, I'll say divestment.
06:13This is just years of underinvestment in commodity supplies.
06:17It's left commodity supplies very brittle.
06:19So rather than putting money to work in new mines, you put money to work in tech, right?
06:24And in this kind of environment, so even a small demand surprise can drive outside price moves
06:29because there's not a lot of buffer on the supply side.
06:32And the last point, I have to mention it, data centers and AI.
06:36So AI, in our view, this is not purely digital.
06:39Data centers, they're massively copper intensive.
06:42They demand a lot of energy.
06:44Power demand is growing fast.
06:46So if you're wary of paying for peak multiples for AI stocks, commodities can be another way to play the
06:53same sort of secular theme.
06:56Perfetto, per concludere, volevo capire qual è la differenza tra l'investimento diretto sulle società che producono materie prime
07:05e l'utilizzo invece di strumenti derivati come ad esempio future sulle commodity.
07:11Yeah, this is a very good question.
07:13So when you're looking to gain commodity exposure in a portfolio, what's the best way to do it?
07:18In our view, we really prefer executing this exposure directly with commodity futures.
07:24So why is that?
07:25Let's go back to the first question.
07:27Commodities are attractive in a portfolio because they provide a hedge against inflation and meaningful diversification away from stocks and
07:35bonds.
07:35So commodity futures, rather than shares in commodity producing companies, is the most efficient way to obtain these properties.
07:44When it comes to equities of commodity producers, well, these companies have high stock market beta, so that reduces that
07:52efficiency for diversification.
07:54It means basically you're doubling down on stock exposure when you're trying to build a hedge.
08:00These companies often will hedge their production, they'll lock in their prices, so that reduces the impact of a price
08:06rally on their bottom line.
08:07It means they don't take full advantage of a commodity price rally.
08:11Natural resources, resource companies can be difficult to find in pure play form or in a way if you want
08:18to isolate a bet on a particular commodity.
08:20Let's think of coffee, for instance, which is a critical global commodity.
08:24It is very difficult to invest in just the coffee growers that are spread out over all sorts of countries,
08:29Brazil, Ethiopia, Indonesia, etc.
08:33These companies, they can have high idiosyncratic risks, so that means you need to be a good stock picker to
08:38pick the right companies here.
08:40And higher inflation, this will impact these companies negatively because they'll have higher input costs like materials and labor.
08:47But in contrast, high inflation is good for commodity, just the commodity prices.
08:53And finally, during price spikes, natural resource companies, they can be hit with these windfall taxes because it can often
09:01be politically unfavored to profit in time of very high inflation.
09:05So, if you put all of this together, in our view, if you can recreate a natural resource company portfolio
09:12by buying just commodity futures and broad market equity index futures,
09:16and we find actually that such a replication portfolio outperforms a natural resource company portfolio.
09:24And thanks to David Wu for being with us and sharing the vision of New Berger.
09:29A prestissimo e grazie ancora.
09:31Thank you.
09:34Mentre noi ci rivediamo nella prossima puntata di Stay Live.
09:38A prestissimo.
09:39Mentre noi ci rivediamo nella prossima puntata di Stay Live.
10:09Sì.
10:09Alla prossima.
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