As US engagement wanes, is Western support for Ukraine becoming solely a European effort?

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00:00Volodymyr Zelensky has signed a deal for Ukraine to obtain 100 Rafale fighter jets and other

00:16hardware from France. This as he seeks to boost his country's capacity to fight off the ongoing

00:22Russian invasion. We can see live images there of Volodymyr Zelensky arriving at the Elysee

00:28Palace greeted by French President Emmanuel Macron. Macron who met him a little earlier this Monday

00:36at a military air base just outside of Paris where Zelensky inspected the Rafale fighter jet which

00:43was framed between the Ukrainian and French flags. The pair are also holding meetings now at the Elysee

00:50Palace this afternoon where they'll sign a number of bilateral agreements. For more on this story

00:57we can go to our guest this afternoon. We can go to a story that looks at why this visit by

01:09Zelensky comes at a crucial moment and especially as the Russian army has said it's gained crucial

01:18military gains in the crucial strategic town of Pokrovsk recently and in the Zaporizhia region. For more

01:27on this visit we can we can speak to Michael Benhamou who's the executive director of the think tank

01:34OPWI Europe's War Institute. Thank you very much for speaking to us on France 24. Thanks for the invitation.

01:40At 100 Rafale jets this is a huge order for Paris they're very expensive they cost around 100 million

01:49euros I believe. Approximately yeah. And they take several years to make as well so where are these

01:54jets going to come from? They will not be delivered immediately probably because Dassault Aviation who

02:02produces the Rafale they have a lot of orders coming from India, Indonesia and also the Middle East so

02:10these Rafale will probably come in 2029 2030 but definitely this this sale of 100 Rafale is going to

02:19in a way lock the relationship between France and Ukraine for at least a decade this is what it means

02:25and it's going to be quite quite difficult to actually question that decision because you know billions

02:33of euros are at stake a lot of jobs in France and lastly on this it's a very it's very good news for

02:40Dassault Aviation because it's it puts Dassault at the heart of the European defense ecosystem in terms of

02:48of aviation technologies so this is this is an important moment at the scale of France of course

02:55but also at the scale of Europe. So what kind of impact would these jets have on the battlefield

03:02concretely especially if they take a long time to arrive? Very good question I think we right now we

03:10have a problem in Ukraine which is that we cannot reach the rear of Russian forces which can now operate

03:17rather freely with their drone systems and also with their artillery so what is the rear it's this

03:23area which is between five and let's say 30 kilometers behind combat lines it's the reason why Russia is

03:30able to advance right now in Pokrovsk and in different areas all along the the battle line it's because Ukraine

03:36cannot contest this logistics rear with Rafale it might be possible to do that in the in the midterm

03:45but the there would need to be training for for pilots of these aircraft right it takes it takes years

03:53definitely as I said in the beginning it takes it will take approximately 10 to 15 years to actually

03:58consolidate the the acquisition and then the training and then also the the adjustment because once you

04:04have a system like that operating on the battlefield usually the client is asking for for modifications and

04:12and Ukraine will probably ask for improvements and modifications given the intensity of the fight

04:18it is in with with Russia Russia which is a country with high technological prowess so this is going to be

04:25for for Dassault and for France it's a huge technological test the Rafale has been tested for example in between

04:34Pakistan in the war the quick war between Pakistan and India recently but this is another level of battlefield

04:41the tests for the for the rafale definitely all right French president Emmanuel Macron and his

04:47Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky they're just giving a press conference uh giving some details

04:53about a series of deals that have been signed in Paris this Monday during Zelensky's visit I'm joined on

05:01set by Michael Benhamou who's the executive director of OPOE Europe's war institute we've been listening to that

05:07post conference we heard a number of details emerge there particularly about the deal that concerns the

05:13one up to 100 Rafale fighter jets what stood out about that to you I noted the four things when we were

05:21together first that president Macron has gone a long way since 2022 he's now using a rhetoric a semantic which

05:30is close to the Ukrainians he's saying that Russia is an imperial country a cynical country that Ukraine is

05:37part of the European family so this is in terms of shared values this is a signal number two about the

05:47reassurance force now in Montvalérien this is official Montvalérien is in the west of Paris it's a little hill

05:53that has been refurbished over the past years now we know that there is a small planning military

06:02planning force there which is discussing a future force sent to Ukraine if there is a ceasefire this

06:09is right now in terms of scenario planning what is what is going on at Montvalérien we have heard we

06:17have learned actually that there is 35 nations now on that on that base if the translation was uh was

06:24correct it's probably liaison officers coming from all over Europe and NATO I believe you still have

06:31two main contingents of countries which is France and the UK but then you probably have a constellation

06:37of countries who are detaching one two officers for that for that planning it doesn't mean again that

06:44Europe is going to send troops in Ukraine but we are at what we call in the army the conops stage the

06:50concept of operations stage uh which is before the planning stage and uh and obviously the question

06:58that will be asked probably next year is what do we do if there is no ceasefire and if Ukraine loses

07:04more territory you know do we send a force even if there is no ceasefire this is going to be the question for

07:10for next year number three uh the package was interesting of course the Rafale radars

07:17anti-air missiles and and missiles and of course we discussed this together before a 10-year

07:23a 10-year relationship you know as I told you this deal is going to lock France uh with Ukraine over at

07:29least a decade so we have seen with Australia and with AUKUS that countries can decide to uh unlock

07:36themselves from from certain military deals this is what Australia has done with the submarines uh

07:43five six years ago so it will remain possible for Ukraine or for France to actually cancel this but

07:50honestly once you start a program like that um so many there's so many actors at stake so many billions

07:57of euros that's so many jobs at stake that it's very difficult to at some point in five years ten years

08:03it's very difficult to say oh you know we cancel this and we do something else so this is yes I think

08:09we can say that this is a historic um decision for France and for Europe that shows that this conflict

08:16in Ukraine is more and more dealt by Europeans and less and less by America and uh they also mentioned

08:23some other deals that were signed on energy defense uh but infrastructure and uh we heard about a deal

08:30uh with Alstom uh to to help Ukrainians rebuild infrastructure there yes this is very important

08:37you're right to mention this logistics is forgotten you know we we talk a lot about uh new technologies

08:43and drones and gadgets and AI but the reality is that approximately half of defense purchasing is about

08:52logistics you know it's the food it's the clothing it's uh transportation mobility and and yes they also

08:59mentioned that uh during that uh press conference we have uh french actors uh companies who are very

09:06good at this and uh and this is very good news for for Alstom um uh who will apparently benefit from

09:14uh a grant from what i understood from the eib the european investment uh bank is it a grant or a loan

09:20it's not really clear but this is a good signal again for for french uh french company french savoir-faire

09:27in in terms of uh of infrastructure speaking of french companies uh the two leaders are now

09:33meeting about drones um you know and linking the two ukrainians and french in these sectors

09:41um what do you see to come out of this meeting can can the french companies provide ukraine with with

09:47the technology that it requires in this moment yeah this is a president zelinski mentioned co-production and

09:54this is a an area where the french have a lot to learn from the ukrainians you know the french are

10:00are a bit behind the curve in europe you know german companies and british companies and also american

10:06companies are ahead of french companies uh in terms of market presence and innovation and so for france i

10:15think this is a way to catch up for lost time and working with ukrainians to to develop french solutions

10:22in terms of drone is very important for for for france also of course for for ukraine but but for

10:28france as well in the three domains it seems uh especially in the in the land domain but also in

10:35the naval domain you now have very strong ukrainian naval drones which are very cheap and can be used for

10:42other non-conventional operations that could be very interesting for france as well

10:47uh good news good news for both countries all right michael benhamu thank you very much for your analysis

10:53here on france 24 thank you

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