The EU has found 'a sense of purpose' in providing economic, military support for Ukraine

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00:00After those heavy losses in Ukraine last night and the winter deepening in Ukraine,

00:04we're going to take a look more at the situation there with our guest today.

00:09I'm joined on the line now from Dublin by Scott Lucas,

00:13who is Professor of International Politics at University College Dublin.

00:18First of all, thank you so much for your time. We do appreciate it.

00:21Welcome to the programme.

00:23Maybe first, Mr Lucas, you know, what do you think this significant attack last night

00:29with all those casualties? How does that fit into Russia's tactics at the moment?

00:36The Russian tactics, not just at the moment, but throughout the 46 months of this full-scale invasion,

00:44are to obviously attack on the ground to try to seize territory.

00:48But from the air, you attack energy infrastructure to try to break the ability of Ukraine

00:54to provide heating, provide power to its people.

00:57And at the same time, you terrorise the civilian population.

01:01You try to break their will to resist.

01:03It's not a question of whether or not those civilian sites are being targeted.

01:09The fact here is, is that Russia knows that civilian sites will get hit

01:12and that they factor in the idea of maybe this means Ukrainians will turn against the resistance

01:18against the Russian invasion.

01:19Today, it happens to be Turnipil, but it has been other cities across the width and breadth

01:27of Ukraine going on now for almost four years.

01:30And I dare say you and I could be talking about yet another mass killing in another Ukrainian city,

01:36well, in a few days, possibly next week.

01:39I was reading somewhere recently that it very rarely works, this idea of hoping that a population

01:48will be so starved of energy that they will, heating and energy infrastructure being knocked out,

01:58that they will find that they can't live in cities anymore and move and eventually give up,

02:03that, in fact, it tends to harden people's will.

02:07Why has Russia gone for that strategy?

02:11Well, I think specifically, and you'd have to get Mr. Putin in to ask him directly,

02:17but I think the Kremlin is invested in, you know, come hell or high water,

02:23they want to conquer Ukraine.

02:25It's like a shark.

02:27A shark always has to go forward.

02:29It can never stop.

02:29The fact here is, is that Russia does not want to admit that its gains of territory on the front line

02:38are gradual, and there have been headlines that they have taken a few villages in the past few

02:43days, but it is gradual gains.

02:45They don't want to accept at the same time a negotiated settlement, even one which allows them

02:50to occupy, for the near future, the 19% of Ukraine that they have.

02:55So if you're not going to accept a negotiated settlement, but you're not making a rapid advance

03:00on the ground, what do you do?

03:02You keep on trying day after day with this tactic that you can hit Ukraine's cities,

03:09and somehow this time will be the one that breaks Ukraine for good.

03:15You were saying that often there are big headlines about certain cities, and it's true.

03:20We heard a lot about Pokrovsk, and, you know, but these advances seem, as you say, very slow

03:25and very small for what was considered to be a mighty army.

03:32You know, what, for outsiders who aren't military people, what is going wrong for Russia?

03:36What's going right for Ukraine in terms of this failure to gain territory?

03:39Well, I think we could take this all the way back to the start of the invasion, full-scale

03:46invasion in February 2022, which is, and it gets to your point, that the Kremlin calculated

03:53that Ukraine's resistance would collapse almost immediately, and that it would only take a few

03:58weeks for Kyiv to fall.

04:00And as it turned out, by the spring of 2022, Russia had to withdraw from northern Ukraine,

04:04and that goal of taking over the capital went.

04:08But I think if you advance this now to 2025, what we're seeing on the front lines is, is

04:12that this is a different type of war.

04:15This is probably the first drone war, and that is that the advantage that Russia has, and it

04:22has a significant advantage, six, seven, ten to one in artillery, it has the advantages

04:27in heavy armor.

04:29But when you come up against drones, which are relatively cheap to operate, which can maneuver

04:34effectively and which can wreak damage on units, including armored units, as well as infantry,

04:43it makes it much more difficult to have that war of attrition, to overrun someone on the

04:48front lines.

04:49Now, in recent days, because of the foggy weather in the east and in the south of Ukraine, Russia

04:55has been able to capitalize on the fact that it has not been as easy for Ukraine to have

05:00those drone defenses.

05:02But of course, the fog is not going to be around forever.

05:05Indeed, it's probably going to dissipate very soon.

05:08And we'll be back to this idea of how does Russia carry out these human wave attacks and

05:14think that it can overcome a Ukraine which might be outmanned, outgunned, but it has these

05:20mobile tactics of defense where the drone has taken a central role.

05:25Do you think because of the central role of those drones, which it seems are finally impacting

05:33in Russia and making noticeable damage that ordinary Russians are noticing, that along

05:39with, we understand, mounting casualties on the Russian side, maybe hundreds of thousands,

05:44they are also losing some of their exports to China, Turkey, India.

05:51Do you think the Russians who, when polled in as far as polls can be fair in a place like

05:59Russia, they appear to support the war?

06:01Do you think we're likely to see that support dramatically fall?

06:06I doubt it because I think, you know, people invest in a war fought by their leaders.

06:14And a lot of Russians now are tied to that war fought by their leaders because if they give

06:18up on that, think about all they've sacrificed, think about all they've sacrificed in many

06:24cases in terms of livelihoods, in terms of deaths, well over a million Russian casualties

06:30in this conflict.

06:31And they put their hands up and say, we give up.

06:33So many Russians will stick with the Kremlin and Vladimir Putin as long as he is still in

06:38power.

06:38But I think the effects that you're talking about, which is the combination of Ukraine's

06:42not only drone attacks, but missile attacks on vital Russian facilities, oil refineries,

06:48petrochemical plants, chemical plants, electronic plants, ports, shipping, the combination of

06:53that and the sanctions, especially the U.S. sanctions last month, which are driving away

06:59Russia's largest oil customers, China decreasing by 36 percent, five of seven Indian refineries

07:06giving up all Russian orders next month.

07:08The combination of that is it makes it tougher for the Kremlin to wage this war.

07:13They have to commit more resources to defense.

07:16Up to two million reservists now being possibly called up, many of them to stand guard around

07:22these facilities against Ukraine attacks.

07:25And they have to try to find the money to continue to finance their operations inside Ukraine.

07:31That's why I say, and I can't guarantee this, I don't like making predictions, but I would

07:36think maybe that a six to 12 month window for Vladimir Putin to try to break Ukraine is what

07:42we're looking at before the economic effects and the military effects of the sanctions combined

07:48with the Ukrainian attacks, well, finally might curb his dream of conquering his neighbor.

07:53Maybe we could, it's an interesting prediction, maybe we could move to talk a little bit more about

08:02this other apparent Russian strategy of trying to destabilize other NATO countries or Ukraine

08:09allies by sabotage or attempts at sabotage or attacks on infrastructure, which are being attributed

08:16to Russia.

08:17We've seen them in Romania, some other countries, Poland.

08:19Just this week, we had the attack on the Polish rail line to Ukraine, and it seems to be part

08:25of a pattern.

08:26Now, on Tuesday, we heard the EU's top diplomat, Kaya Callas, talking about the need for better

08:31protection.

08:32I think we can take a listen to that now.

08:35It is clear that these kind of attacks are extreme danger also for our critical infrastructure.

08:42And now, I mean, of course, it is up to Poland to attribute and make steps like this.

08:50But what I agree is that we have to have a strong response, because what Russia is trying

08:57to do is to do two things.

09:00One, on one hand, to, you know, test us how far they can go with every little, you know,

09:09time they go further.

09:10And then, next, they also try to, you know, sow fear within our societies.

09:16So, that's Kaya Callas speaking on Tuesday.

09:20Scott Lucas, how seriously do you think Europe should be taking all this?

09:23Are we doing enough in Europe?

09:26Oh, it's a serious threat.

09:28But, again, it's a serious threat going back to February 2022.

09:33And look where Vladimir Putin lost his initial gamble.

09:36Rather than splitting Ukraine, he actually pushed countries to join Ukraine, Sweden and

09:41Finland, rather than breaking Europe.

09:44Yeah, to join NATO, I should say.

09:47Rather than breaking Europe, he actually had an EU, which has found a sense of purpose in

09:52providing that financial and economic support for Ukraine.

09:57In other words, you have had Europe not simply retreating or dissolving, with the exception of

10:05a couple of countries, Slovakia and Hungary, which have pro-Kremlin leaders.

10:09They stood with Ukraine.

10:10And I think what we see now is, is that when Russia tries to go farther, when they try to

10:16test Europe with the overflights of the drones, with the fighter jets earlier this year in

10:22Estonia, and now with what may be the sabotage operations of the railways in Poland, that just

10:28reaffirms, redoubles the determination of European countries not to give way to this type of hybrid

10:34warfare.

10:35I do think it increases the economic and financial demands on Europe.

10:42You have to provide for your defense.

10:43You have to put those measures in place, as well as provide the funds for Ukraine's own

10:48financial and economic situation.

10:50But at the end of the day, Russia is one country.

10:54The EU is 27.

10:56Whose position would I rather be in when it comes in terms of the economic, the financial,

11:01as well as the military conflict?

11:04I'll take Europe.

11:06OK, we'll have to leave it there.

11:07We're out of time now.

11:09Thank you so much.

11:09Scott Lucas from University College Dublin there talking to us.

11:14Thank you so much for your time.

11:15We really do appreciate it.

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