00:00Gulliver Craig, our correspondent in Kyiv. Let's move from Kyiv to London. Let's bring in John
00:03Loft, the geopolitical analyst, commentator, head of foreign policy at the new Eurasian Strategy
00:08Centre, Nest. John, welcome to France24. Always great to have you with us. And we're talking
00:14about who's in the room today. Who should we know about? Notably that the head of Russia's
00:18intelligence unit, the GRU, is amongst them. A significant factor? Do you hold the same kind
00:26of despairing thought in terms of where this could go as Gulliver? Or do you see room for
00:31manoeuvre here? Well, I say it's not a particularly high-ranking Russian delegation. The two names
00:37that I've heard of are the head of the Russian military intelligence service and also the
00:44person, Kirill Dmitriev, who has been involved in earlier negotiations and who is a businessman
00:49and who is the direct counterpart of Steve Witkoff. So this looks like an effort on the Russian side
00:56to keep the negotiating process going, but not with, I think, any serious commitment to seeing it
01:04through to a successful end. We have to be clear here that Putin sees, I think, mainly the opportunity
01:11in this process through the fact that he thinks that Trump can exercise influence both over Zelensky,
01:17President Zelensky, and over Ukraine's European allies, to persuade them that there really is
01:23no point continuing the fight because Russia is eventually going to win. And this, in other words,
01:27would be a way, as Putin sees it, to accelerate a victorious outcome. So I'm afraid I share the
01:34caution or indeed pessimism of your correspondent in Kiev. I think the Ukrainian expectations of these
01:40talks are very low. They know exactly what the Russian strategy is. They can see it being
01:46implemented now with extreme brutality in terms of the just targeting of the energy infrastructure
01:51during this cold snap. And this is an effort on the part of Moscow to try to break the will of the
01:57Ukrainian people to continue the war. But we see no sign that Ukrainians are giving up, even though
02:03they're numerically outnumbered. The Russians are advancing places on the battlefield. But it's actually
02:08a relatively still static picture. And that's how it has been over what the last three years or so now.
02:16And the thought that this is entering, this war is entering its fifth year. And Russia controls what
02:22around, you know, 20% of Ukrainian territory. It really, this war has gone, I think, so far, very,
02:30very badly for the Russians. And their economy is starting to hurt. And I think there have to be
02:34questions raised just about how credible this strategy is of Putin, because he's been talking
02:40for months and probably over a year now about the possibility of the Ukrainians collapsing any
02:45moment. Two thoughts there. First of all, I guess what the Donbass gives in its vast territory is the
02:51industrial heartland, the coal mining area, Luhansk and Donetsk, because we know most of, if not all,
02:57bits of no man's land in Luhansk are occupied. And there's still, I think, maybe about 20% of
03:04Donetsk, depending on different analysis, that is still in Ukrainian hands. We're talking about
03:11Pokrovsk as well in and amongst that. I just wonder your thoughts, because you talk about,
03:17you know, this is a, you know, for Russia, it's not what they wanted. But this allows Putin,
03:22doesn't it, to present something that, you know, kind of a golden gem of Ukraine, the Donetsk.
03:28As you say, there's a kind of, they're going, marching slowly towards it as well. And I do
03:33wonder whether actually we're going to see that issue go away, because the study of war,
03:37the Institute of Study of War, estimates it will take Russian troops up until, quote,
03:40August next year to conquer the rest of the Donbass. It goes back to your other point,
03:44that the leverage is slowly diminishing, isn't it?
03:47Well, I think it is to some extent. We have to see on the Russian side, Putin has set
03:53expectations. Expectations of a rapid victory. And that's not going to come about. And I think
03:59the Ukrainians are going to continue fighting. The Russians may advance a little bit faster when
04:05the spring comes and the foliage returns, and they're not as exposed. But Ukraine, I suspect,
04:12will somehow keep going with the assistance of its, in the main, its European allies.
04:18So the question is, how long can the Russians carry on? Putin wants to show something absolutely
04:24tangible. And of course, territorial acquisitions are a very useful way of showing, in principle,
04:30that, you know, the war has achieved a result. But there's a nice phrase in Russian to describe,
04:35I think, territories such as Donbass, and that is a suitcase without a handle. This is going to be
04:40a burden for Russia, because the industrial assets there have been, in many cases, devastated. The
04:47attraction of, you know, coal mining these days is not as great as it used to be, for obvious reasons.
04:53And those territories have been largely depopulated. So what value Russia really sees in those, I think,
05:00is limited beyond the fact that they want to get hold of the towns that are known as the fortress
05:07belt, that are really the mainstay of Ukraine's defences in that region at the moment. Because
05:13if they can control those, then I think the path to acquiring greater influence in Ukraine, or indeed,
05:20invading further, is much, much easier. So that's why it's such a threat for Ukraine,
05:27and why they don't want to give up that territory, particularly since they control it.
05:30And added to that is the visceral factor, isn't it, that this territory, many of the families of
05:34soldiers say is marked in the blood of their loved ones, people who've fallen to defend it and what's
05:40left of it. Do you see, though, another outcome here, other than the continuation at this point? I
05:44mean, Gulliver talked about, you know, how the government wants to continue, will not give up
05:50this territory, and it would have to go to a referendum. Do you see any, looking and analysing
05:54the political situation, any outcome which could involve a referendum in Ukraine on this territory in
06:00Donbass? I think it would require the military situation to deteriorate significantly for that
06:06to happen. And then you might be talking about, let's say, some division of that contested territory
06:14at the moment. This would be, of course, extremely unpopular in Ukraine, and President Zelenskyy has
06:20referred to this repeatedly. But right now, I think there is, from what we can tell from the opinion
06:26polling, there's a consensus among Ukrainians that they must keep fighting, because if they don't,
06:31they risk losing their independence entirely. And this is what this war is about. Russia wants to
06:37deprive Ukraine of the possibility of being a viable independent state.
06:42As always, really good to talk to you, John. John Luff, a geopolitical analyst, commentator,
06:47and head of foreign policy at New Eurasian Strategy Centre. Next, John, as always, we'll see you soon.
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