00:00And for more on the talks in Moscow, we welcome U.S. foreign policy expert Scott Lucas to the program.
00:05He is a professor of U.S. and international politics at the Clinton Institute at University College Dublin.
00:12Thank you so much for being with us here on France 24.
00:16We've been in this movie before, Scott, a high-stakes meeting between the U.S. and Russia,
00:21and it seemed like Russia was just stalling to buy time or sanctions relief.
00:26Do you think that that's what's likely to happen this time, too?
00:30I certainly don't think we're going to get a resolution today,
00:35but I think there's a twist in the plot line here in that we actually have two different proposals.
00:42And which one is—or Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Donald Trump's son-in-law,
00:48which one of the proposals are they going to be focusing on with Vladimir Putin?
00:51Let me explain.
00:53The first proposal is one that Russia has been developing since the spring.
00:57And at the end of October, Vladimir Putin's top economic advisor, Kirill Dmitriev,
01:03met Witkoff and Kushner in Florida to build it into, quote, 28 points and to mask it as Donald Trump's so-called peace plan.
01:11Now, in fact, it's not a peace plan as much as an ultimatum to Kiev,
01:14that Ukraine has to give up the rest of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, which you've been talking about.
01:21It has to keep itself militarily weak with no membership of NATO, limits on its forces, and restrictions on Western military assistance.
01:30Half of all the profits from its recovery fund have to go to the United States.
01:34And meanwhile, Russia gets sanctions lifted and gets back into the G8 group of nations.
01:41Now, that proposal was taken to Geneva just over a week ago, and the European countries, including France, working with Ukraine, pushed it back, and they put forth a counterproposal.
01:54And that counterproposal starts with a ceasefire.
01:56We can discuss territory, military, economic arrangements, but there must be a ceasefire on the basis of the current front lines.
02:04Ukraine does not give up more territory, and it does not give up the possibility of joining NATO.
02:10And the reason why that European counterproposal is viable is because the U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, does not like the Witkoff-Kushner proposal.
02:20Therefore, he was willing to work with Europeans.
02:23Now, Russia had signaled that it really liked that original peace plan, though, since it was really favorable to them.
02:30That's the one that you said caused a firestorm of backlash in Europe.
02:34So I don't imagine that Russia would take this altered deal so well, that it would be received well.
02:44No, they won't.
02:45They'll reject it.
02:46But the question here is, what about Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Donald Trump's envoys?
02:51Are they there to tell Vladimir Putin, we know you might not like the idea of a ceasefire, but there has to be one?
02:59Or are they there to say, hi, sorry, you know, the Europeans don't like this.
03:05What can we do to work with you to repackage your proposal to try to push it and almost force it upon Ukraine?
03:11In other words, and I must be very honest with you, Witkoff and Kushner have been working with the Kremlin on the side of the Kremlin.
03:20So it's not necessarily a meeting today to present a proposal to Putin as much to make arrangements with him.
03:27That's the real worry that European services have, which is why those European services have been going to the media and saying quite rightly that the reason why Kushner and Witkoff have been working with the Kremlin
03:38is because of Russia's proposal for joint U.S.-Russian economic projects, including in rare earth minerals, including in the energy sector, including in other areas of manufacturing.
03:51And that, in effect, the Kremlin's plan, which is being promoted by Witkoff and Kushner, has these profits for members of the Trump administration.
04:01But, of course, who's going to pay for those profits would be Kiev.
04:06So say that the U.S. does want to try to push Russia to make some concessions or to stop stalling.
04:14What theoretically could the U.S. do to bring Russia on board?
04:19I mean, would economic incentives really be enough?
04:24Look, no, what you're asking me here is, is what are Vladimir Putin's minimum conditions for agreeing to stop his invasion?
04:31And you've identified them already, that the minimum conditions is that he is able to have de facto recognitions of the areas that Russia already occupies
04:42in the east and south of the country and of Crimea, and that he gets legal recognition of all of the Donetsk region, including the 22 percent, that strategic area that Ukraine control.
04:56But Ukraine's not going to give up the Donetsk region.
04:59As the Finnish president, Alexander Stubb, told Donald Trump in August, that's the highway to Kiev.
05:05It would leave Ukraine vulnerable.
05:07So that will be the sticking point.
05:08Witkoff and Kushner will go to Putin today.
05:11Putin will say, I have to have all of Donetsk.
05:14If Witkoff and Kushner come back and say he has to have all of Donetsk, Ukraine and Europe are going to continue and say, no, that's not possible.
05:21U.S. foreign policy expert Scott Lucas, thank you so much for your time and your analysis.
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