'Moscow believes battlefield realities are in their favour: Ukrainian defence lines, air defence overstretched'

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00:00Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has landed in Turkey for talks to try and revive U.S. peace

00:05talks and to end Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He is meeting today with the Turkish President

00:10Recep Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. Envoy Steve Witkoff. Peace negotiations stalled after several rounds

00:16of Russian-Ukraine talks in Istanbul this year failed to yield a breakthrough. Kiev is hoping

00:21Washington will be able to push Russia to the negotiating table, including by imposing sanctions.

00:26Well, we're going to talk more about that now with political analyst and Russia expert

00:30Aleksandra Filipkanko, who joins me from Vilnius in Lithuania. Thank you for taking the time

00:35to speak to you. So what do you think Zelensky's main goal is with this visit today?

00:40First of all, thank you for having me. Well, the idea right now is to re-anchor Turkey as

00:46a diplomatic intermediary. We've heard some negotiations happening in Turkey previously.

00:52We've heard about that. But most importantly, and I think number one of importance is the fact that

00:58what we learned from Axios recently, Axios reported that according to their sources close to the White

01:05House, there are actually talks happening between Steve Witkoff and the Russian side. As we know,

01:11the meeting between first, between Marco Rubio, the state secretary, and the advice,

01:18the national security advisor, and Sergey Lavrov, the minister of foreign affairs of Russia, was

01:23canceled in Budapest. And subsequently, the meeting between President Trump and President Putin was

01:30canceled in Budapest. And as of now, we didn't know anything about any contacts. Marco Rubio being at G7

01:37summit, he answered reporters' questions saying that, well, there are contacts, but not on my level,

01:44on the level of embassies. But now from Axios, we learned that actually Steve Witkoff is continuing

01:50his diplomatic efforts, most probably with Kirill Dmitriev, because Kirill Dmitriev, a very close

01:56contact of Vladimir Putin, a person who is personally close to Vladimir Putin, and his,

02:03let's say, envoy, the unofficial envoy of Russia, he immediately went to Miami to meet with Steve Witkoff,

02:11as soon as we learned that the meeting in Budapest would not happen. So now we understand that there

02:17are some diplomatic efforts from the Russian side and some private diplomatic efforts from the American

02:23side. So most probably for Vladimir Zelensky and for the Ukrainian side, it's extremely important right

02:28now not to lose that time and not to lose those connections with the American side. So they need to

02:35rebuild leverage. They don't have leverage right now. They don't have a diplomatic leverage.

02:40So this would be a symbolic diplomatic victory that Vladimir Zelensky really needs right now.

02:46So one thing Zelensky is hoping for is that for Washington to push Russia to the negotiating table

02:53by imposing sanctions. What's the likelihood that'll happen?

02:56Well, that's a big, big question, because what we've heard about sanctions, sanctions regarding

03:03Rosnaft and Lukoil would hit Russia immensely. But President Trump first gave one timeline for

03:10those sanctions to come into effect. And then he moved that timeline. The sanctions were supposed

03:16to already come into effect right now. Now the timeline is pushed up to December. So we see that the

03:23American side, if we talk in President Trump's terms, he has the cards and he showed his cards,

03:30but he is ready to talk to Russia. He is ready to, let's say, postpone those sanctions if he sees

03:38peace efforts from the Russian side. And right now for the Kremlin, for Russia, it's very important to show

03:45that they are engaging into negotiations in order not to be sanctioned because actually the economic

03:53situation in Russia is dire and those sanctions really hit Russia hard. So this visit really matters

04:01now for Vladimir Zelensky because he wants to promote the idea of sanctions that it looks like President Trump is

04:08not ready to support as of now because he sees that there are diplomatic efforts. There are presumably

04:16some talks between Russia and the United States. Of course, all of this is coming as the situation

04:22on the ground is getting worse for the Ukrainians. Their military positions weakening, especially as

04:27Russia now looks poised to take the strategic city of Pokrovsk. What's your feeling about what's happening on

04:32the ground and if Ukraine really does have a leg to stand on in these negotiations? That's exactly the

04:39point. That's the most important thing that you outlined right now. Russian forces are tightening

04:43the grip on Pokrovsk. The Donetsk defense is now critical for Ukraine. Ukrainian defense lines are

04:52actually overstretched and air defense is overstretched and there is not enough rotary in the

05:00army. And for Russia, it's the momentum. Russia believes that taking Pokrovsk will shift the that

05:07negotiation baseline, I would put it this way. So Moscow aims to demonstrate that those battlefield

05:14realities are in their favor. And as we know, again, what we know about President Trump from his first term

05:21and from his almost first year, almost year in power, that he might be ready to push Ukraine to come to

05:29a negotiating table just right now before things get worse. And maybe he would be ready to give into

05:39some Russia's demands. And we know that Russia is demanding the whole of Donetsk and way more territory

05:45that it controls right now. And President Trump is usually ready to support the winner, the winning side.

05:52So for Zelensky, it's very important to seize the momentum right now, because militarily,

05:59it's a precarious situation right now for Ukraine, because Russian forces are advancing slowly, very,

06:05very slowly, but surely advancing in the Donetsk region. Indeed. And winter is on the way. What does the

06:12Ukrainian army need to survive another winter at war and try and end this fighting for good?

06:17Well, the most important thing, of course, is energy. And Russia is attacking Ukraine's energy

06:25resources. And right now, we saw that Ukraine has enough long-range missiles to attack the Russian

06:32side. And not only the American-made missiles, not only the attackums, but not the tomahawks,

06:39of course, that everyone talked about for so long. But Ukraine-made weapons. Ukraine-made

06:46long-range weapons. And Vladimir Zelensky is making it clear that if Russia hits Ukrainian energy

06:54resources, Ukraine will hit Russia's. So they are trying to put that pressure on the Russian side

06:59to make them stop hitting civilian targets in Ukraine. But we don't see any sign of Russia stopping.

07:07We don't see any sign of Kremlin being ready to come to that negotiating table. So the most important

07:13thing for Ukraine are long-range missiles right now. Alexandra, thank you for that. That's

07:19a political analyst. Alexandra Flupenko speaking to me from Vilnius.

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