US-Russia plan 'feeds into perception that US simply is not interested in its commitments to European security'

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00:00welcome to the show ukrainian president vladimir zelensky's office says he's received a draft

00:17u.s backed plan aimed at ending the nearly four-year war with russia the proposal reportedly

00:23calls for kiev to make territorial concessions curb parts of its military and allow moscow

00:28effective control of the eastern donbass region while rolling back some u.s military aid european

00:34allies have warned that peace cannot mean capitulation saying that they have a two-point

00:38plan instead weaken russia and support ukraine zelensky is now set to discuss the plan with

00:43donald trump stressing the need for a just durable resolution that upholds ukraine's sovereignty

00:47and let's bring in ian lesser distinguished fellow at the german marshall fund for more

00:52ian thanks so much for joining us the united states agreement if what we're led to believe

00:57is happening it's effectively rewarding russia for bad behavior

01:02good to be with you i i would agree with that i i think that many in europe but also some i think

01:11in the united states will certainly agree that this goes too far if it stays as proposed uh you know

01:17what is russia giving up what are the russian side's concessions in this proposed agreement it's very

01:23unclear actually much of it is very unclear how would you guarantee it all the rest of it i think

01:29it points to a very basic difference of perspective where i think at the moment the white house is

01:34looking for a you know for a settlement that where they can claim a political victory and europe is

01:40looking for an approach that not only gives ukraine what it needs but also secures european security

01:46those are very different perspectives let's talk about european security because what does this say

01:52to them if the united states is once again leaving the continent out of discussions about its own future

01:58it has been read very badly and i think it will feed into the perception that the united states

02:07simply is not interested in its commitments to european security now the actually the trump

02:12administration has been fairly careful within nato not to give that impression yes europe should pay

02:18more and do more in its own defense but uh no one has really questioned the fundamental american

02:24commitment to european security but i do think this this this proposed deal underscores basic

02:31differences across the atlantic when it comes not just to how to end the war in ukraine but what it

02:36would mean for the future relationship between russia and europe and how you would secure europe under those

02:42conditions it doesn't seem like europe is taking the bait at least if we look at the words of the top

02:48foreign policy chief kaya kalas today she she's warned that rewarding aggression would also encourage

02:53more she's also stressed that the eu's dual strategy is just twofold and it's weaken russia and strengthen

03:01ukraine if we could just remind our viewers of what exactly she said also pointing to sanctions on russian

03:07oil revenues and targeting its shadow fleet some strong words from kaya kalas today

03:12what we as europeans have always supported is a long lasting and just peace and we welcome any

03:21efforts to achieve that of course for any plan to work it needs ukrainians and europeans on board so

03:30this is very clear also we have to understand that in this war there is one aggressor and one victim so we haven't

03:39heard of any concessions on the russian side one victim one aggressor kaya kalas has also stressed that the

03:48sanctions are hitting russia hard but are they actually genuinely crippling moscow at all we heard from hungary's

03:54foreign minister today in brussels saying that nothing has actually worked and so why not just

04:00come and get yourselves into line with this u.s deal do you see any kind of concessions being made

04:05well look i i don't think there's any question that the sanctions and they include american sanctions by

04:11the way and they've gotten tougher uh have had some effect but it hasn't changed russian behavior when it

04:17comes to ukraine and i i think we need to also to distinguish between uh the prospects for a ceasefire

04:23for us for stopping the conflict for stabilizing it on the one hand and what an eventual settlement

04:28would look like and when the administration and potentially now i suppose russia is talking about

04:33ukraine making these quite sweeping uh territorial concessions uh you know even if ukraine were to

04:42settle for that i'm sure they wouldn't settle for it as a matter of a change of the border

04:45uh ultimately it's not a settlement it's simply a place to stop the conflict um crimea yes i think

04:53many would agree that at some point uh you know you need to accept that russia is going to continue to

04:58control crimea even if ukraine doesn't give up on its sovereignty over crimea eventually um

05:06everyone would like to see this uh brought to a close but to have a settlement that leaves russia in

05:14such a strong position and provides inadequate security to ukraine is a compromise not just for

05:21ukraine but for european security and i think that's what you hear from uh the high representative

05:25and others i guess the bottom line from all of that is what actually prevents russia from one day you

05:32know 10 years down the line saying you know what we haven't had quite enough of this cake we want to

05:36finish it now we've we've only taken four slices uh now let's uh just finish the job well i mean that's

05:44exactly it and you know giving concessions to them that involve constraining what ukraine can get in

05:50terms of military hardware military assistance commitments i'm sure part of this package will

05:56be a russian insistence that not only does ukraine not become part of nato eventually but that indeed

06:02nato forces are not involved in guaranteeing uh a settlement uh that's a huge concession and it's

06:10one that very few europeans are going to be willing to make and i think they're right just on donald

06:14trump because a couple of weeks ago he was threatening even heavier sanctions on moscow and

06:21those countries buying its oil he's reneged on that it seems and it's just a flip-flopping i mean

06:27how does the u.s president come out of this looking if he doesn't stay true to his word

06:32i think what he is looking for above all are in a sense um victories deals that stick or at least

06:42appear to stick i mean whether this is in gaza or it's on over ukraine um you know this is i think his

06:50his measure of success and and i think that's what he is looking for in this um i'm not sure he is

06:57necessarily pleased with russian behavior and you know we you need also consider the possibility that

07:02he could move down the line with the kind of package that he's proposing and that russia isn't

07:07serious about it and that's quite possible in which case you know we'll have to see and i could well

07:11imagine a backlash on his part against russia but for the moment that's not what we're seeing

07:15ian lessor thank you so much for unpacking the news as we see it ian lessor distinguished fellow at

07:21the german marshall fund joining us there on this uh clandestine deal between the united states and

07:26russia over ukraine's future

07:28you

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