00:00Well, for more on this story, we're joined now by Peter Dickinson, Ukraine editor at the Atlantic Council.
00:06Thanks so much for being with us on the programme this evening, Peter.
00:09Tell us firstly, why exactly is Vladimir Putin agreeing to this now?
00:15The announcement coming, of course, just ahead of that deadline imposed by Donald Trump.
00:23Good evening. Well, I shouldn't be answered in the question here.
00:26You know that this came just as the as time was running out on Trump's latest deadline.
00:33Now, Trump has said a number of deadlines and ultimatums and he's extended them.
00:38But there was a sense that maybe this time there was no more room for manoeuvre on Trump's side, that he would have to take action against Putin.
00:45So we see Putin coming out with talk of a bilateral meeting.
00:51So this is actually not an entirely new approach from Putin.
00:56I think we saw a similar move, a slightly different, but similar a month or so ago when European leaders threatened to impose tough sanctions.
01:04And Putin came out and said, OK, let's have a direct meeting, a direct meeting between Ukraine and Russia, which then took place in Istanbul.
01:13So, you know, he pulls these meetings out as a way of perhaps stalling, playing for time, dragging out the negotiating process and crucially, avoiding any further sanctions measures or increased support for Ukraine.
01:28Certainly the talks between Ukraine and Russia that we've seen in recent months have not produced anything of value.
01:33So there is a lot of scepticism whether we're going to see any real progress if Trump and Putin do indeed meet next week.
01:42And is there any reason at all to be optimistic?
01:45As you say, Putin has been completely unwilling to compromise on anything until now.
01:50Well, certainly, certainly the sentiment in Kiev is that until Putin faces more pressure, higher costs, there really is very little scope for him coming to the table for serious peace negotiations.
02:05Of course, we don't know what the realities of the situation are inside Russia.
02:09We see that Russia's economy is struggling militarily.
02:13They're not making much progress and they're suffering very heavy losses.
02:16So it may be that Putin is is feeling more pressure internally or feels more vulnerable than perhaps he's letting on.
02:23But frankly, that's quite an optimistic outlook.
02:25I would say, broadly speaking, it doesn't look like he's ready for peace.
02:29I think it was it was very telling today that he came out and said, yes, I'll meet Trump.
02:34No, I won't meet Zelensky.
02:36My conditions have not been met. And by conditions there, it really means Ukraine's capitulation.
02:42And you've written not so long ago that any settlement based on what Donald Trump has been proposing, it would have been essentially regarded as a victory for Russia.
02:51So regardless of what the U.S. president now offers the Kremlin, is there any chance that Vladimir Putin is going to back down?
02:58Will this lead to peace? If it doesn't, what then for the war in Ukraine?
03:02Well, I think the key point is here that Trump had offered Putin over the last six months very generous peace terms.
03:12Essentially, he made concession after concession to the Russians and demonstrated a readiness to agree to most of their terms in terms of territory,
03:22in terms of Ukraine's neutrality, in terms of the relief of sanctions for Russia and so on.
03:29So Trump, Putin's decision to basically say no to that and to continue pushing underlines that his objectives here are still very, very maximalist.
03:37It's not enough for Putin to gain some territory in Ukraine.
03:41He really needs to gain the whole of Ukraine or at least control over Ukraine.
03:46Putin does not want an independent and sovereign Ukraine as his neighbour, which is going to continue becoming, you know, trying to integrate into Europe.
03:54Because Putin is very concerned that that could be a catalyst for pushes, for some sort of push for democratic reform inside Russia itself,
04:02maybe even for the breakup of the Russian Federation.
04:04So he's been very clear that he's going to continue pursuing these maximalist goals.
04:09Now, if he says no to Trump's proposals, as he already has, though, if he continues to refuse to sort of make any sort of compromises,
04:17then the only real option is to increase the pressure on Putin and on Russia.
04:22Now, Trump has the tools to do that.
04:23It looked like he was about to do that.
04:25Now we're going to talks.
04:26Perhaps if these talks don't bear fruit, we'll finally see that pressure applied.
04:30But at the moment, again, we have another pause as Trump looks to somehow broker some of a deal, as he wants to do.
04:38And, you know, we have seen a change of tone, as you say, from the White House over the past few weeks even.
04:43But is there real cause to believe that Donald Trump is actually going to exert this pressure on Russia?
04:51Well, that's a very good question.
04:53And of course, you know, the sceptics would say no.
04:55The sceptics would say he's not, he's certainly not inclined to do.
04:59So I think it's very clear that Trump, you know, Trump has made it very clear over the years that he has a lot of admiration for Vladimir Putin,
05:05that he sees America and Russia as natural partners.
05:09And he'd be very comfortable sitting down with Putin and sort of deciding the big issues of the world,
05:14not only the war in Ukraine, but other issues as well.
05:16That's how that stuff fits with his world view.
05:19So certainly he's reluctant to get tough with Russia.
05:23But at the end of the day, he is the president of America.
05:25He can't be seen to be weak.
05:26He can't be seen to be manipulated.
05:28And that's what he has been seen to, that's what he's been perceived as in recent months.
05:33You know, even from within his own support base, his own, his own party in America,
05:37there's been people saying, look, Putin is taking you for a ride here.
05:41He's playing you.
05:42You know, you have to, you have to defend American interest.
05:45And also opinion polls in America consistently show that there's this very strong support for America's backing of Ukraine
05:53and almost no support for Russia itself in America.
05:55So, you know, Trump has good reasons for his own political interests and also in terms of his base and in terms of American opinion
06:02for getting tougher on Russia.
06:04Whether he'll do that or not is difficult to say because he really doesn't want to do that on a personal level.
06:09But he may actually find he has no choice because there's no middle ground between the Ukrainian and Western positions and Russia's position.
06:16Finally, Peter, where does all of this leave Ukraine, though?
06:19Is it going to have any, any space at the table?
06:22The White House casting doubt on whether or not this summit will even go ahead if Putin doesn't agree to meet Zelensky,
06:28which seems unlikely at this point.
06:32Yeah, it certainly looks unlikely.
06:33I mean, that was one of the few, one of the few clear things we actually saw today.
06:36You know, there's a lot of, there's a lot of ambiguity about this meeting, what's been decided, what's on the table.
06:40The one thing that the Russians were very clear about is that they're not ready to meet with Ukraine, with Zelensky.
06:47So that certainly at this stage looks unlikely.
06:50I think it's also unlikely that we'd see a scenario where Zelensky or Ukraine is just simply presented with a fait accompli
06:57and told this is the reality, you know, you have to, you know, you have to, you have to basically show up and accept it.
07:03I think that Ukraine will have a, will have a major say in any peace process and we'll have to, you know, we'll have to back it.
07:09And Zelensky himself also will have to get the support of the Ukrainian people.
07:12So at some point, of course, Ukraine will have a major stake in this.
07:16Europe also, to a lesser extent, but certainly Ukraine, certainly the Ukrainian people.
07:21The Ukrainian military is a major, major factor in European stability and security now.
07:26That can't be overlooked.
07:28So at some point, I think if we want to move to a peace agreement, the Ukrainians will be involved.
07:33But at this stage, the American, the Russian agenda seems to be to exclude Ukraine and to try and sit down, you know,
07:41one-on-one a sort of superpower summit, Cold War style summit with Trump to maybe get concessions from the Americans,
07:47maybe divide the Western camp a little bit and also demonstrate that Russia is a world power.
07:54Peter, thanks so much for joining us with that analysis.
07:57That is Peter Dickinson, Ukraine editor at the Atlantic Council.
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