If Russia's invasion turns Ukraine into 'unstable state', the same 'instability' could reach Moldova

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00:00Earlier this week, eyes were also on neighbouring Moldova, where several European foreign ministers

00:05gathered for a conference.

00:06There, Germany's top diplomats warned that if Ukraine fails, then Moldova is the next

00:11country in line.

00:13Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the small country sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania

00:17has alternated between pro-Russian and pro-Western governments, but now has a strong Western-oriented

00:24administration.

00:26Let's get more on Moldova's position in the war in Ukraine with Ramos Nilsson, lecturer

00:31in Russian foreign policy and post-Soviet politics at the University College London.

00:36Thank you so much for joining us on the programme, Ramos.

00:38First of all, I want to get your general thoughts on what the foreign minister from Germany

00:44said.

00:46If Ukraine falls, then Moldova is next.

00:48What's your thoughts on those comments?

00:50Good morning.

00:51I take the foreign minister's warnings, of course, and they are stark warnings and we

00:57should listen to them.

00:58What I would say, though, is what we're talking about and what I would argue she's talking

01:02about with Ukraine's fall would be a Ukraine placed in permanent uncertainty, permanent

01:10insecurity, with Russian attacks being able to hit across the country.

01:16That in the longer term would be the failed Ukraine.

01:18We are not, as things stand, talking about a situation where Russia could take over all

01:24of Ukraine or anything like that.

01:26However, if we ended up in a situation with that level of uncertainty, where all of Ukraine

01:33in effect becomes an unstable state because of Russian attacks, then yes, that same instability

01:39could be transferred to Moldova, which is already and has been throughout its post-Soviet

01:43existence has been quite a fragile state in many ways.

01:47So these warnings from the foreign minister are absolutely in their place.

01:53And during that meeting, the Moldovan president, Maja Sadu, said that the war in Ukraine has

01:58caused severe damage to the Moldovan economy.

02:02Can you lay out for us what sort of impact the conflict has had on the country's economy?

02:07Well, I mean, Moldova never had a very strong economy to begin with.

02:12It is the country that has depended quite extensively, for instance, on remittances

02:17from people working abroad.

02:19And it's now, of course, also dependent on aid, for instance, from the EU in particular.

02:26Its economy has, in the last few years since 2022, also been hit by a large influx of Ukrainian

02:32refugees.

02:33You know, in the West, we often talk about the number of Ukrainians who have come to

02:37our countries.

02:39But if you look at a country like Moldova, they took a huge amount of Ukrainian refugees,

02:44many of whom are still there.

02:46So that has had an impact on the economy.

02:48Of course, the economy in Moldova has also been impacted by a disruption of trade coming

02:55from the East, for instance, from the Ukrainian agricultural sector and other sectors, and

03:02going through Moldova into the West.

03:05All of this has hurt the Moldovan economy over the last few years.

03:10And for many of those leaders at that conference, the Moldovan economy is a big concern.

03:17That's why they've now agreed to donate €380 million in aid to Moldova now.

03:25What sort of importance does announcements like that, you know, agreements to send aid

03:31to Moldova, what sort of importance do they have as the conflict continues to drag on

03:36now?

03:37Yes, that's exactly what we should ask.

03:40I mean, on the one hand, of course, this sort of aid gives immediate practical assistance

03:45to Moldova.

03:46And that's very important, as I just indicated, given the weakness of the economy.

03:51But on top of that, this sort of aid and the messages coming out, including from, say,

03:56the German foreign minister, also indicate that the West cares about Moldova, that the

04:01West has its eye on Moldova and wants to help Moldova to progress.

04:04I mean, we see the same with, you know, Moldova's relationship with the EU more broadly.

04:10And those signals, signalling to Moldova that it will not be forgotten, it will not be abandoned.

04:15Those signals are of enormous symbolic and, you know, political importance.

04:20And the country also has its eyes, like Ukraine, on EU accession.

04:24Do you see that happening?

04:25Yes, I do see it happening.

04:29Not necessarily tomorrow, if you see what I mean, there are still things that have to

04:32be done.

04:34And I find it slightly, I don't think Moldova would come in before Ukraine, if you see what

04:39I mean.

04:40I think it's most likely they will come in together.

04:42And Ukraine will, apart from the war, need a bit more time to get ready for, probably

04:47than Moldova, to get ready for EU demands.

04:50But yes, I do absolutely see it.

04:51I mean, Moldova, you should remember, also has a sponsor inside the EU in the form of

04:56Romania.

04:57So it is reasonably well placed and it's a fairly small country with a fairly small population

05:02and economy.

05:03So it would not be a big problem for the EU to incorporate Moldova in itself.

05:10And the country is also gearing up to head to the polls in November.

05:14We've had evidence of Russian interference in votes that have happened in the past.

05:21Moldova going forward, these elections will be very important.

05:24Can you explain to us how important they will be?

05:27Well, they're, of course, very important because they signal the, you know, the medium and

05:33even long term direction of Moldovan domestic and foreign policies.

05:38So the government under President Maia Sandu has, of course, been very clear in his willingness

05:43to work with the West, seek EU integration, so on and so forth.

05:48And if they were to, you know, continue in power, if you see over the next few years,

05:53then that is a sign that Moldova can stop, if you like, flip flopping between geopolitical

05:58directions towards the West, towards the EU and geopolitical directions towards Russia.

06:04Of course, there will also be, as you will know, a referendum on Moldova's relationship

06:09with the EU, which again will have huge symbolic importance.

06:13Now, in both cases, my impression as things stand is that things are looking OK for the

06:19government, OK for the EU, for the EU direction of Moldova.

06:24But nothing is certain yet, of course.

06:26We'll have to wait and see what happens there.

06:28Ramos Nilsson, lecturer in Russian foreign policy and post-Soviet politics at the University

06:34College London. Thank you so much for joining us on the programme.

06:36Really appreciate getting your thoughts there.

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