'Very difficult for European leaders, policy planners and Zelensky to know what to expect from Trump'

4 months ago

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00:00Well, to discuss this a little further, I'm now joined on the line by Michael Bosierki.

00:05Michael is currently Senior Research Fellow and Head of International at the Atlantic Council's

00:12New Eurasian Strategies Centre. He is speaking to us now from Odessa in the Ukraine.

00:19First of all, thank you so much, Mr. Bosierki, for joining us here on France 24.

00:24Perhaps we could begin with today's meeting then. Catherine telling us that, of course,

00:31all of this depends on an eventual ceasefire and before that talks between Zelensky and Putin.

00:39But today's meeting does seem really to have been about locking down some sort of concrete contributions

00:45from various countries so that they can then say to Trump, you know, if a ceasefire is agreed,

00:49this is what we'll do. Will you provide some kind of backstop if we need it?

00:55So, you know, what might the coalition realistically provide, do you think?

01:02Yeah, just to clarify, if I may, so now that's getting into trouble, I'm Senior Fellow at the

01:06Atlantic Council at Eurasia Centre. I think your correspondent hit it on the head is that

01:14if a ceasefire should take place. That's the key line here. The feeling here in Ukraine is that what

01:20is needed is here and now. Odessa was attacked once again overnight, world port Odessa, the port

01:27that feeds the world. And as you know, Kiev many, many times. So that's what Ukrainians want right now

01:33is more muscle to be able to down those destructive Russian missiles and drones that come pretty much

01:41on a nightly basis. And of course, also to push back Mr. Putin from grabbing more territory in

01:47Eastern Ukraine. Look, the feeling here right now is Europe looks very impotent at the moment.

01:53One of the things I heard the other day from someone around here is that if Europe can't or won't stop

01:59a man-made famine happening on its doorstep in Gaza, how can it be possibly expected to help defend

02:05Ukraine? Another quick question, if I may, coming from Ukrainians is what about the 200 billion euros

02:12sitting in European banks, frozen Russian assets? When will those be released to help Ukraine fight

02:18this war? Yeah, that is something that I was going to ask you about. Do you think we will see any

02:24movement on that? Emmanuel Macron has been among those who are reluctant to see those frozen Russian

02:31assets spent. The interest is being spent or can be spent, but he's really worried about the effect

02:38that might have on markets. Do you think that Zelensky might push him on that and that there

02:42might be a change of mind from Macron on that? He's one of the key. Yeah, definitely. They're going to

02:48push. They've been pushing for a long time. And I think, sorry, and I think Christian Lagarde of the

02:52European Central Reich is also worried about the integrity of the euro. Well, I have a message for them.

02:57You know, they can worry all they want about the integrity of the euro, about the integrity of

03:02EuroClear and Brussels, but it's going to be a lot costlier for them to defend Europe, to defend the

03:08euro if President Putin and his generals are allowed to go further into Ukraine, possibly into Moldova

03:16next door to me, where there are parliamentary elections coming up. So, you know, the thinking here

03:23is that we need to deploy as much as we can right now to help Ukraine, either that 200 billion, not

03:30only the interest, but the principle for defense of Ukraine, but also for reconstruction efforts as

03:37well. There's one more thing that came up in the past 24 hours you may have seen is the head of the

03:43Russian military armed forces displayed a very worrisome map that showed Mykolaev and Odessa as

03:52part of Russia. I don't know if that's part of the Russian war planning. We know it's a dream of

03:57Vladimir Putin, but it goes to show how far the Russians are willing to go, at least in their minds to

04:03make further advances in Ukraine. You seem to be suggesting that this meeting today was not

04:11worth holding, that it was rather pointless that Putin will do what he has to do, that Donald Trump

04:17will not stop him, and that we are a long way from talking about what might happen after any eventual

04:24ceasefire. Yeah, I don't mean to come across as the main cynic in all of this, but what came out of

04:32that circus in the White House and also in Alaska, but especially in the White House when the European

04:38leaders gathered with Mr. Trump, it looked to many of us like a cheerleading squad meeting with the

04:45head coach and praising him to no end. Look, the problem right now, we can't put the blame solely on

04:52the shoulders of Europeans, but with Mr. Trump as supposed leader of the free world, he's the

04:58contortionist in chief. He changes his mind, he loses interest, you can't take him at his word,

05:04he is into self-enrichment. So it's very, very difficult for European leaders, policy planners,

05:09for Mr. Zelensky to know what to expect from Mr. Trump. He may promise something within the next few

05:16minutes when he owes the phone call with the leaders, but whether he can actually deliver,

05:20especially because none of this really pleases his base, is another matter.

05:25All of that is certainly true. And I think a lot of people would worry that even if Trump were to

05:32sign up to some of this, if Russia then violated any eventual ceasefire, would he really order US

05:39jets to down, you know, Russian missiles? You know, what would it be worth, as you say? Now,

05:45everybody in Europe, the European leaders are fully aware of all that. Nevertheless,

05:49they have committed themselves to try and help Ukraine, not least for the threat it poses

05:56within Europe. What should they do? Can they manage without any backing from Trump?

06:04Sure. Good question. Well, you know, they're doing a lot that is very praiseworthy and among that is,

06:09you know, kind of behind the doors assisting Ukraine, especially building up its capabilities

06:16here, you know, drone production, that sort of thing. This has become a very much high-tech war.

06:21And, you know, four years ago, before this war started, Ukraine absolutely did need a lot of

06:28training. Now, it's such a tested war machine that it could probably even train some modern European

06:35or other armies. So, but what's needed right now is protection, these domes for strategic centers

06:43in Ukraine, Kyiv, but again, World Port Odessa, this port that feeds the world. And, you know,

06:51I think it saddened a lot of Ukrainians when the German Chancellor peddled back commitments to provide

06:59the Taurus missiles, those high-powered, long-range, very, very smart missiles that can strike targets

07:05within Russia. That's another thing that Ukraine needs right now. It has the legitimate right to

07:11defend itself by striking legitimate targets with inside Russia. It's done a lot on its own with

07:17those drones, but it needs those high-powered missiles, for example, to take out the Kerch Strait

07:22Bridge, a pet project of Mr. Putin, and also a very, very vital military supply line for Russia.

07:29So you do think, do you think we're likely to see if there is a ceasefire again ever,

07:35these coalition troops on the ground in Eastern Europe monitoring this ceasefire?

07:43Britain has said it would pledge 10,000 troops. It seems that 30,000 is the number that's needed

07:51because of rotation and rest, so that 10,000 would be in use all of the time. France,

07:58Emmanuel Macron has said he is willing to send troops. A number of European countries have

08:03absolutely ruled it out, Poland, Italy. Do you think that will happen, given that you seem to be

08:10suggesting Donald Trump is so untrustworthy, they would just be putting themselves into harm's way?

08:17Well, I remember when I was part of the OSC special monitoring mission to Ukraine in 2014,

08:222015. Back there, the situation was different. It did take a long time to get up to full scale so

08:30that we could monitor the situation on the ground along the entire front line. But let's remember,

08:35everyone, what happened then is the Russians did everything to stymie our efforts. They even used

08:40electronic jamming to bring down our very, very expensive monitoring drones, observation drones. We had

08:47his small mission, and not many people know this, on the Russian side of the border. The Russians did

08:52everything possible there to block their view, to block their monitoring. So I don't expect their

08:58behavior to change any differently now. It is a big difference, of course, to have uniformed NATO troops

09:06on the ground in Ukraine. That's something where Mr. Putin has drawn a red line. But who's he to draw red

09:14lines? So I think Europe has to show its commitment, its strength, its real resolve to do this and not

09:24be frightened by Mr. Putin and his rhetoric. Because I have this suspicion that they still

09:31are frightened by his possession of tactical nuclear weapons, that sort of thing. But they have to get over

09:38it. Because once again, if they don't, you could have Russia. There's a very big, big likelihood of

09:45Russia coming further into Europe, and imagine the cost there. And if they don't come into Europe,

09:50they will push more Ukrainians outside of Ukraine into European states, increasing the burden and the

09:56political complexities, domestic complexities there too.

10:00Quite a scenario. Just before we go, I did want to ask you one quick question,

10:04going back to a non-military means of pressuring Russia. Donald Trump got quite irate a couple of days ago when

10:13in the Oval Office, somebody said, you know, why don't you toughen up oil sanctions on Russia? And he said, look what I did on

10:19India. I imposed 50% tariffs because they are buying Russian oil. What did you make of all that? That seemed a very

10:26roundabout way of punishing Russia. He doesn't care so much to punish Russia most of the time. And it has

10:34really had repercussions in the relationship with India. What was all that about?

10:40Yeah, well, your question is very timely, because only two days ago, I was on India Today on a panel.

10:45And there it was made very, very clear to me by the Indian side is that, hey, just a minute, everybody, we started buying

10:53Russian oil at the behest of the United States because a lot of what we buy is refined in India

10:59and then resold to Europe to lessen their dependency on things. And, you know, of course,

11:05Mr. Trump is swinging his tariff club and hitting India very hard. But they argue very, very strongly

11:13is that they were put into this situation. Look, the other thing I'm going to say, because there is a bit

11:18of hypocrisy here. And once again, I don't mean to come across as the biggest cynic on earth. But,

11:24you know, according to Ukrainian investigative television programs, there are still Russian-owned

11:30steel factories operating within a short drive of NATO and EU headquarters in Brussels. Now,

11:37what kind of scenario does that create in the minds of your, sorry, of Ukrainians when they see

11:43that sort of thing happening? So it's good. It takes a long, long time to redraw energy flows.

11:49You can't do it at a flip of a switch. But Mr. Trump likes to, yes, not punish the Russians,

11:57but punish others. And if only he would go after Mr. Trump, sorry, after Mr. Putin, as you promised,

12:03we would be in a different scenario where we are today.

12:06Well, he's certainly given us lots to think about there. Thank you so much. We're going to have to

12:11leave it there. And Michael Bosierki, thank you so much for your analysis on this.

'Very difficult for European leaders, policy planners and Zelensky to know what to expect from Trump'

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