00:00Donald Trump's much-hyped Alaska summit with Vladimir Putin is set for tomorrow.
00:14In the run-up to the talks, the U.S. president has said his meeting with Putin will be a give
00:19and take on boundaries and lands. Now that's a sentiment that's likely to worry authorities
00:25over in Ukraine. The Russian president too has been praising Washington's role for making a
00:30sincere effort to solve the conflict. Take a listen. I would like to share with you where
00:38we currently stand with the U.S. administration, which, as everyone well knows, is making, in my
00:47opinion, quite vigorous and sincere efforts to halt hostilities, end the crisis, and reach
00:56agreements that serve the interests of all parties involved in this conflict. This is about creating
01:02long-term conditions for peace, both between our countries, in Europe and in the world as a whole,
01:11if at the next stage we reach agreements on strategic offensive arms control.
01:21We can now bring in Ian Bond, deputy director at the Center for European Reform and former
01:26British ambassador to Latvia. You've also had previous postings in Russia early on in your
01:33career. Thank you so much for joining us on the program today. Vladimir Putin seems to be praising
01:38Washington in the run-up to these talks in Alaska. Is he being sincere or is this part of some broader
01:44strategy here? I think Putin is very rarely sincere. He knows that the best way to get Donald Trump to
01:55do what he wants is to flatter him, so he's flattering him. Putin, after all, had no doubt excellent
02:04training from the KGB on how you manipulate a subject. And I think that's precisely what he's
02:12setting up for tomorrow.
02:15Trump says he thinks Putin wants to make a deal, but if you're Vladimir Putin, why would you want
02:20to stop now, considering Moscow is the one making gains on the battlefield and has managed to do so
02:25despite all the sanctions thrown at it?
02:31I think you're asking exactly the right question. And it's a question that Donald Trump should be asking
02:36himself as well. In reality, I don't think that Putin has shown any real sign of being ready to compromise.
02:43And when Trump is talking about, you know, swapping territory back and forth, I think he is negotiating
02:53with himself, not with Vladimir Putin.
02:57In the past few weeks, Donald Trump has oscillated between saying he's the one who knows how to handle
03:03Vladimir Putin and also threatening secondary sanctions on Moscow. But these two men will be meeting alone.
03:12Donald Trump has been relying on Steve Witkoff, a man who has zero diplomatic experience. And as you said,
03:19he's going to be up against somebody who's a KGB man.
03:26Yes, I think, you know, the rest of us should view with profound worry the idea that it will just be
03:33Trump, Putin and their interpreters, because there is no knowing what may come out of Trump's mouth.
03:40And there is no knowing how it will be reported afterwards.
03:47What we saw the last time a tete-a-tete meeting between the two men happened was that Trump confiscated his
03:55interpreter's notes so that there could be no accurate record afterwards of what had been discussed or agreed.
04:01So I think there's a good reason to be quite concerned about the fact that the two are meeting in that format.
04:08What is the significance for Moscow that these talks are being held in Alaska?
04:14And why would the United States either suggest or agree to this location?
04:18Both of those are excellent questions.
04:24I think there has been some Russian trolling of Trump suggesting that Putin will be taking domestic flights to Alaska.
04:36There are, of course, nationalists in Russia who say that Russia should claim Alaska back from the Americans.
04:44So it is a very surprising venue.
04:48And I think it really says something about the lack of understanding of Russia within the Trump administration,
04:57where there is really no senior Russia expert anywhere in the White House,
05:05the National Security Council or the senior parts of the State Department,
05:10who is able to say, you know, maybe this is not the best optics that we could obtain.
05:17And maybe meeting on neutral ground or not meeting at all would be a better option.
05:22Donald Trump seems to suggest that all options are on the table.
05:26But as you know, and I know, he's looking for a deal and he's looking for a Nobel Peace Prize.
05:33Could Putin use this as leverage to get what he wants, i.e.
05:38things like recognition of the territory he's already seized?
05:41Well, I'm sure that that's exactly what Putin will be trying to do.
05:48I think the problem for him is that whatever Trump says, it doesn't change the facts on the ground.
05:57I think also that even Trump, with the power that he has over his party, would struggle to get the Senate or others to lift some of the sanctions against Russia,
06:13which is clearly something that Russia wants,
06:15or to refrain from criticizing any decision to recognize the annexation of Crimea or other Ukrainian territories by Russia.
06:30So I think, you know, there are limits to what Trump himself can deliver to be helpful to Putin.
06:37And what about Russia's red lines, things like Ukraine being neutral, not joining NATO?
06:46I mean, we know that from Donald Trump's statements in the past, even J.D. Vance's statements, even Pete Hegseth's statements,
06:53that this was unrealistic, even though we've had certain NATO member states that continue to give Ukraine some hope.
07:01Would Donald Trump be inclined to listen to that red line from the Russians and take that off the table, at least?
07:11Well, I think he's already taken that off the table.
07:13I mean, that was a preemptive concession by Trump and by members of his administration months and months ago.
07:21So, you know, there will have to be other ways of providing Ukraine with security guarantees.
07:28But I think, you know, for the foreseeable future, NATO membership, unfortunately, is off the table.
07:38Putin's basic objective has not changed.
07:41And his objective is to remove Ukraine from the map as a sovereign independent state.
07:47And, you know, that is something which he and other Russian spokesmen have repeated endlessly over the last several years.
07:58When they talk about removing the root causes of the conflict, what they are basically saying is that the best that Ukraine should be able to hope for is to be a Russian vassal state along the lines of Belarus.
08:11Well, that's clearly something that neither Ukraine nor European countries can accept.
08:17So, you know, that to some extent means that whatever Trump may agree with Putin, it isn't it isn't going to be implementable.
08:24How does Russia view the fact that Europe is not sitting, will not be sitting at this table in Alaska tomorrow, nor Ukraine?
08:35This despite the Europeans for months who've been trying to jostle to get a seat at the table and have been rebuffed at every turn by the Americans.
08:43Yes, it was at virtual summit yesterday, but it's not the same as having a seat at the table.
08:48No, I mean, it makes it much easier for the Russians in the discussion tomorrow because there isn't going to be anybody there who will put Putin straight when he produces his usual cocktail of lies about the history of Russia and Ukraine.
09:07And I saw that apparently one of the stories coming out of Moscow is that he will bring some kind of historical dossier with him to brief Trump.
09:20Well, we sort of we saw that last year when he was interviewed by Tucker Carlson and he gave him a long history lecture.
09:29I can't see Trump actually tolerating such a long lecture, but I'm sure that Putin will be trying to persuade Trump that Ukraine has always been part of Russia.
09:38And it's a very unnatural situation that now it is an independent country.
09:43And it's a great pity that there won't be any Europeans or still less Zelensky there at the table to say, well, the hell with that.
09:51Ukraine is an independent country.
09:53What are you expecting to come out of this meeting in Alaska?
09:59I mean, I think the best I hope for is that Trump overreaches himself so much.
10:07Sorry, that Putin overreaches himself so much that even Trump realizes that he's being taken for a fool.
10:14But what I worry slightly is that Putin will manage yet again to persuade Trump, who I think is quite willing to think this anyway, that it's Ukraine that is to blame for the war, not Russia.
10:27And, you know, Trump will then look for ways to put more pressure on Zelensky rather than, as he should do, putting more pressure on Putin.
10:35Okay, it'll be interesting to watch nonetheless.
10:39Ian Bond, thank you so much for joining us on the program today.
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