'Strategic strength of US': 'Blurring the lines' with two teams meeting with Ukrainians, Russians

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00:00For more, let's go to Berlin. Grégoire Rousse is director of the Europe,

00:03Russia and Eurasia programs at the think tank Chatham House. Thank you for speaking with us

00:08here on France 24. Thank you very much for your invitation.

00:13So a lot of under pressure diplomacy, under pressure because of that bleak situation on

00:20the ground inside of Ukraine at the outset of winter. Before I ask you about events here in

00:29Paris, your reaction to what's happening militarily, particularly those those strikes in the Black

00:36Sea? Well, we have seen by now that even as the negotiations between the Americans and the

00:45Russians have been intensifying, Russia has kept intensifying its attacks on Ukrainian strategic

00:53targets and civilians altogether. So to keep the tensions as strong and high as they possibly can,

01:03the Ukrainians are doing their best to retaliate, focusing on strategic targets. What is interesting

01:10is to see the reaction of President Erdogan, who said that that was a kind of escalation,

01:17worrying escalation, I quote him, and that should stop. So the objective of the Ukrainians is reached,

01:25if I may say so, insofar as they've managed to intensify heightened pressure on Russia and

01:32indirectly on the Americans. And we have Emmanuel Macron, among the statements he's made, we're going

01:37to go through several of them. One where he's promised, there's another European Council meeting due to

01:43take place this month before the end of the year, promise that sanctions on Russia's energy sector

01:49would be, quote, the highest since the beginning of the full scale invasion back in 2022. Are those

01:55empty words or can Europe tighten the screws on the oil and gas sector of Russia?

02:02Well, the answer is yes. Technically, Europe can heighten pressure on oil and gas,

02:07and actually even on uranium, if it wanted to. The question is, can it afford to pay the political

02:14price? And indirectly, can the US accept one year before the midterm elections next year

02:21to see the price of the oil barrel go up? The question is, can we really take 5 million oil barrels

02:30off market? Technically, we could, but this will have obvious implications

02:35implications for the oil prices. Now, that's also going to have implications of, yeah, for voters

02:41here in France, voters in Germany, where you are. There was the Donald Tusk, the prime minister of

02:49Poland, visiting today, Friedrich Mertz. They too spoke with Emmanuel Macron, Volodymyr Zelensky.

02:57How much political capital are they willing to spend?

03:01I think they're willing to spend as much political capital as they possibly can,

03:08provided it doesn't hurt them any further in the polls, which these days is quite a challenge.

03:16In truth, although there has been a lot of words comforting, supportive towards the Ukrainian

03:23president, there isn't much that Europeans can do, except perhaps to heighten the financial

03:30superpower that they could put on the table. Technically, without going into too many details

03:36from the MFF to the European Investment Bank, Europe could align up to 1 trillion euros if it

03:43really wanted to. The only problem is the political leadership in Berlin, in Paris, and in many other

03:51countries across the bloc is not strong enough to provide those leaders with the necessary leeway,

03:57if you will, to impose such a change at the European level. But it is clear, given the mindset in

04:05Washington at the moment, if the Europeans do not show the money, they will not regain any relevance,

04:11nor seat at the negotiating table.

04:13So this original 21-point plan that was leaked that, according to the Bloomberg News Agency,

04:23reads in part like a wish list from Moscow, does that change minds here in Europe? Does that mean that

04:31the European Council summit will be a different one?

04:34Well, I think it gives Europe a sense of urgency. I mean, in almost four years of conflict between

04:43Ukraine and Russia, this is actually the first peace deal, draft peace deal that we have seen. As morally

04:54dubious as it is, as diplomatically mediocre as it is, it so happens that it is the only draft on the

05:01table. And that Europeans have been enabled for various different reasons to come together and

05:07put a draft on the table. So there's the feeling that the Americans are making progress, whatever

05:13Europe thinks, and that the Russians have found their negotiating pals in Washington. So there's a

05:21sense of urgency. And that is why Europe is not in its best negotiating situation at the moment.

05:27Is Europe back in the game since they were blindsided a little over a week ago by this plan unveiled by

05:38Washington and Moscow? It's very difficult to answer positively. But the simple reason that what we see

05:46is that if the Ukrainians were to trust either the Americans or the Europeans, it's very difficult that

05:53they would actually go for the Europeans. For a simple reason is that Europe doesn't have the

05:57political nor the defense capabilities, the means to provide Ukraine with solid security guarantees.

06:04So we live at a time when, if there were one choice to be made by the Ukrainians, they would

06:11definitely align with the Americans. Even if, of course, we've seen very strong words of friendship

06:17between the Ukrainian and the French president earlier this afternoon. At the same time, you had

06:23Rustem Umerov, the National Security Secretary of Ukraine, and Secretary Rubio, who actually worked hard

06:30to get to a first kind of, if not an agreement, at least they are closer to what they were last week.

06:37So one thing is the PR, if you will. The other aspect is the real diplomatic side of the negotiation.

06:45And on that side, it's still the Americans in the driving seat.

06:49You mentioned Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State. Who's running the show when it comes to this

06:55negotiation? Is it the State Department? Is it Donald Trump's friend, Steve Witkoff? We also see

07:02that Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, is back in the frame. As Witkoff heads to Moscow, who's got the ear

07:08of the U.S. president? Well, to answer your question, I'd say I think your journalist

07:15at the Elysée Palace just mentioned a moment ago that after President Zelensky and President Macron

07:21chatted after the arrival of President Zelensky, they actually called Steve Witkoff after they called

07:27Mark Rutte and some other European leaders. So it shows that in terms of game, if I may say so,

07:34the stronger game is in the hands of Steve Witkoff. But I think the strategic strength of the U.S. here is

07:40that they've managed to somehow blur the lines. You know, Rubio remains in the negotiation channels.

07:46As I said, he's just met with Umerov earlier this afternoon. But Witkoff and Jared Kushner

07:52are sitting with the Russians. So you have somehow two teams, one dealing with the Ukrainians,

07:56the other is dealing with the Russians. And the Europeans are in between.

08:00Grégoire Roux, so many thanks for being with us from Berlin. Thank you very much indeed.

'Strategic strength of US': 'Blurring the lines' with two teams meeting with Ukrainians, Russians

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