00:00Some of the drones that struck Poland came from Belarus, where Russia and Belarus are beginning massive joint military exercises this Friday.
00:08The Zapad drills, meaning West in Russian, are due to last for five days.
00:13They were last held in September of 2021, just months before Russia invaded Ukraine.
00:18NATO allies are on high alert, concerned the drills are more than simple military exercises.
00:23As of midnight, Poland closed its border with Belarus, and fellow neighbor Lithuania is also stepping up its border controls.
00:31Well, for some insight, we can speak to Peter Zalmayev, director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative.
00:36Good morning. Thank you so much for taking the time out of your day to speak with us.
00:40Good morning.
00:42I want to start by asking you, actually, about this week's drone incursions into Poland.
00:46Do you believe that they were deliberate?
00:48Of course, they were deliberate, and just as much as the previous few accidents were deliberate, with one or two exceptions.
00:58Remember, also, there was a violation of Romanian airspace as well.
01:02Vladimir Putin is clearly sending a signal that he views NATO's collective security chapter affection, and he is probing.
01:12He's trying to prove that, in fact, this chapter five is not going to be invoked, is not effective.
01:20And we're seeing that, you know, reluctance on the part of the Poles and its European allies, not to say, not to mention Donald Trump's reaction,
01:31which actually parroted Vladimir Putin's line that this was not us, this was a mistake.
01:37The Russians are claiming there was the Ukrainians behind it, etc.
01:40So this sort of reaction is precisely what Vladimir Putin is trying to prove, that when the push comes to shove,
01:47NATO is not going to be able to stand by a member under attack.
01:53So in your view, these drones that were fired at Poland were a test, and the West failed, essentially.
01:59Yes, it failed, essentially.
02:03And, you know, of course, you know, Putin is always playing some multidimensional chess.
02:08It was not just to probe that.
02:11Maybe it's too soon to say that the West has failed.
02:14It has to get its act together and put together a plan of action.
02:19Already, France and Germany are boosting their defenses, you know, helping Poland boost its defenses.
02:29So I wouldn't say, let's not speculate, let's not say it's 100% fail.
02:33But once again, Putin is constantly operating in this sort of fog of war and doing just enough not, you know, to have plausible deniability.
02:43And let's not forget that another goal that he's pursuing, he's trying to help whip up anti-Ukrainian and anti-war hysteria in countries like Poland,
02:54where it is actually fertile ground now.
02:56So there are some, I wouldn't say pro-Russian, but very Ukraine skeptic parties, such as Freedom Party,
03:02that Putin wants to encourage and embolden with these provocations to sort of amplify the voices of those who say that,
03:10you know, the more we support Ukraine, the less secure we are.
03:13We have to worry about our own security.
03:16We cannot sort of give out all this weaponry, etc.
03:20And that's precisely Vladimir Putin's goal.
03:22It's, once again, a multidimensional chess that he is hoping to outwit his European, you know, adversaries.
03:33Once again, Europe is not a country.
03:35Europe is a confederation of different states with different practice politics.
03:40Vladimir Putin is confident that as long as he holds firm, as long as China has his back, he can win this game.
03:47We also have these joint military drills beginning today between Russia and Belarus.
03:53Can you talk a little bit about more of those, about those exercises and what we expect them to entail?
03:59Well, these exercises have been taking place since 2009.
04:05It's nothing new, of course, but in light of the, you know, the last three years of war,
04:10where Vladimir Putin has essentially turned Belarus into its military protectorate,
04:15has based nuclear, tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus,
04:20essentially treating Belarus as its own sort of territory,
04:23its own sort of testing ground to, once again, provoke Western nations into various different reactions,
04:34including, you know, hysteria and fear of Russian militarism, etc.
04:38This is, of course, very worrying.
04:42You know, Vladimir Putin, once again, is still, I think, fixated on eventually controlling the so-called Suvalki Corridor,
04:49which is this little strip of land that separates Russia proper,
04:55the main, you know, territory of Russia with Kaliningrad Obelisk, to the West.
05:00It's been Putin's dream to connect those two areas of Russia.
05:05And, you know, the Baltic states are very well aware of these plans.
05:10And so, of course, I think Donald Tusk, the president of, the prime minister of Poland,
05:17and Radek Sikorsky, the foreign minister of Poland, are very much correct,
05:21saying that this is not just run-of-the-mill exercise.
05:24This is a very provocative gesture meant to further escalate, to inflame.
05:30In fact, you know, there's a term in political science now increasingly used.
05:35It's called escalate to de-escalate.
05:38And this is sort of what Russians think may be the outcome of this.
05:43You know, they will, once again, escalate to the point where European countries like Poland,
05:48other member states of NATO will cry uncle and essentially say, enough, let's stand down.
05:54We pledge not to support Ukraine anymore.
05:56We pledge a solemn no to Ukraine's eventual NATO memberships, etc.
06:00So that would be the de-escalation that Putin hopes to achieve with this escalation.
06:06So given, you know, kind of your analysis of what's behind Putin's sort of chess move here,
06:11how should NATO and the West be responding?
06:14And are they responding in a way that you think is tactical?
06:18I think it's, of course, yes, there's tactical elements to the response.
06:25Like I said, France's decision to move one of its air carriers closer to the eastern borders of NATO
06:34and Germany's decision to boost its own defense components, etc.
06:41There is a strategic, I think, also decision emerging in a strategic, I think, thinking on the part of the Europeans,
06:50as evidenced by Ursula von der Leyen's State of the Union address just recently,
06:56where they equate Ukraine's security with their own.
07:00So my answer, once again, is the same, all, you know, treat Ukraine's security as your own.
07:04Ukraine is holding the sort of the fort, is Ukraine's fortress defending the eastern flank of NATO.
07:14I think Ursula von der Leyen has made it clear that they consider Ukraine as part of European civilization.
07:18And that is the only response, the only credible response to Vladimir Putin, not to stand down, not to walk away from Ukraine,
07:26because all it will do is move Russia closer, you know, to Europe's borders.
07:31That will be Moldova next.
07:33If they're already threatening Poland like that, what about the Baltic states?
07:36They will be next up as well.
07:38So I think that strategic thinking is emerging.
07:41My hope is that it emerges, you know, sooner rather than later.
07:45All right.
07:46Peter Zalmayev, I'm afraid we're going to have to leave it there.
07:48We're running out of time.
07:48Thank you again so much for your analysis this morning.
07:52That was Peter Zalmayev, director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative.
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