00:00On the eve of Ukraine's Independence Day, President Volodymyr Zelensky marked the National Flag Day.
00:06He called the Ukrainian flag a dream and a goal for those in the occupied territories.
00:12Zelensky also vowed that Ukraine will not cede land to Russia.
00:16Zelensky has already said that Russia was doing everything it could to prevent a meeting between him and President Vladimir Putin
00:23as diplomatic talks between both sides remain stalled.
00:27Let's listen to some of President Zelensky's remarks.
00:34This flag is a purpose, a purpose and a dream for many of our people in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.
00:43This flag symbolizes what is most precious to hundreds and thousands of our soldiers, men and women from all over Ukraine,
00:52who are defending not just a particular direction, not just Vovchansk or Dobropylia, but our entire Ukraine.
01:05For more on this, we can cross to Kyiv and welcome Peter Zelmeyev, Director of the Eurasia Democracy Institute.
01:15Peter, thank you so much for joining us this evening.
01:19Pleasure to be with you.
01:21So, as we've been discussing, today is Flag Day.
01:25Can you tell us a bit about the significance of this event for Ukraine?
01:28Well, this is, of course, a significant event.
01:33It's the flag symbolizes, you know, a return to Ukraine's pre-Soviet roots and final determination of the Ukrainian people to break away from Russia.
01:46From Russia, which, let me remind you, Ukraine has been on or had been on quite friendly terms with until 2014 is when,
01:56after years of anti-Ukrainian hysteria on Russian TV channel and other mass media,
02:03Russia was able to mobilize its population in its campaign to try to annihilate Ukraine as an independent state.
02:17And so, that actually has caused vast majority of Ukrainians to want to join NATO,
02:23which then Vladimir Putin claimed he was going into Ukraine to prevent from happening.
02:30So, a lot of what has happened has been sort of a one-way street.
02:32Vladimir Putin has needed Ukraine as sort of the other, the bogeyman against which to build his propaganda.
02:40Whereas all Ukraine ever wanted was to live its own, you know, independent existence,
02:46have its sovereignty, have sovereignty and control over its foreign policy, including its alliances,
02:53something which is now, of course, engraved out whether you will ever join NATO or not.
02:58But, as you just saw and it just showed in this program, Vladimir Zelensky has ruled out giving up on Ukrainian land.
03:10This remains sacrosanct, you know, and this remains a non-starter for Ukrainians.
03:15You know, whether we're talking about Crimea or the official recognition of Russia's sovereignty over Crimea or any other so-called land swaps,
03:24which would necessitate Ukrainian forces to leave from the, you know, areas that Ukraine still controls.
03:31So, this is a very, very important statement, the sort of grim determination to continue resisting now that the Russian army is continuing its advance.
03:45These are not the easiest times and this is probably not the happiest occasion, alas, to celebrate this day.
03:52Peter, let's talk a little bit about peace talks.
03:57You mentioned there this idea of land swaps.
04:00U.S. President Donald Trump was kind of pushing that in the summit in Alaska when he came back.
04:05And then there was the meeting on Monday.
04:08And now, you know, as we've mentioned, Zelensky, that's a non-starter.
04:12So, where do we go from here?
04:15I mean, Putin's been dragging his feet about having this face-to-face.
04:18Zelensky said he's ready.
04:20Moscow keeps stalling.
04:21So, where does this leave things going forward?
04:26Well, I'm afraid that from the get-go, this was sort of a, you know, preordained conclusion, at least in my mind,
04:33is that Vladimir Putin will go through all the motions possible to sort of string Donald Trump along,
04:40not to, you know, alienate Donald Trump to the point where he would actually fulfill one of his campaign promises
04:46and give Ukraine more weapons than Joe Biden ever did.
04:49So, he does not want to alienate Donald Trump, you know, too much.
04:54But at the same time, it's clear that Vladimir Putin is simply not interested in winding this down.
04:59He sees that things are going his way on the front lines.
05:03He wants the rest of the Donbass.
05:05That is sort of his minimal program at this point.
05:09He's got China's backing.
05:11And so, there's just simply no motivation for him to wrap this up.
05:15He does understand that his American colleague is in a hurry to claim his Nobel Peace Prize, right?
05:22But he can only do so much to help him, which means nothing, really.
05:27And once again, let's not, you know, discount the Russian propaganda that I just referred to
05:32that has been, you know, portraying President Zelensky as illegitimate
05:37and someone that Putin would not ever meet with other than to have him sign Ukraine's capitulation.
05:44So, at this point, I believe that Donald Trump may have sort of fooled himself into thinking that, you know,
05:51a meeting such as this, the trial ad that he kept saying, trial ad, trial ad this, trial ad that,
05:56that it was imminent.
05:58But then I don't think Vladimir Putin ever really, you know, meant that it would happen.
06:04I think he made just enough sort of, he dropped enough hints that this is a possibility.
06:10He said that to Witkoff when he came to Moscow right before the Alaska summit.
06:17And I think this was done enough to sort of rope the Americans in to have Vladimir Putin come to Alaska,
06:24which I think was a huge PR stunt and PR victory for Vladimir Putin.
06:29And in return, America got nothing.
06:31But that was actually the name and the goal of that special operation.
06:36The optics of the Alaska summit, which did not really mean that this trilateral meeting was happening.
06:44I don't think that there's even a consideration of that at this point.
06:49Right.
06:50Peter, as you mentioned there, certainly the Russian president scored a big PR win with that,
06:55with that summit in Alaska.
06:57I mean, he was welcomed with a red carpet, you know.
07:00And as of now, we haven't heard any concessions coming from the Russian side.
07:06And they continue to bomb Ukraine.
07:08I mean, as you mentioned, they're continuing to take more territory in Donetsk,
07:13one of the areas that Putin has indicated he'd like to take and possibly freeze the front line.
07:20So I want to ask with all of this, how long can the Ukrainian army hold out against this?
07:25And, you know, what's the mood and the morale there?
07:30The mood and the morale is that, of course, fatigue above and beyond.
07:35People, you know, the folks that have been in this war, the men and women,
07:42vast majorities of them have been in it since the very beginning.
07:46They have not demobilized.
07:48So you're talking about three and a half years.
07:50This is, of course, simply inhuman sort of endurance that we're witnessing.
07:57They badly need replacements.
08:00And it's not been easy.
08:01I will not be, you know, revealing any secrets to say that it's not been easy.
08:07There are problems with the manpower.
08:10And unlike Russia, which, of course, outmatches Ukraine by a factor of five,
08:16is also able to rely on its North Korean partners for cannon fodder,
08:22which Kim Jong-un willingly has provided.
08:25We do not have that sort of advantage.
08:27We do not have the same, you know, arrangement with our allies.
08:31Our allies have time and again ruled out, you know, sending troops on the ground.
08:36And that is a major, major difference.
08:39Ukraine, of course, will hold out, continue holding out.
08:44It may be retreating for quite some time yet.
08:48And so at the very least, I think Ukrainians would really love to have a reassurance
08:53from their Western allies that at least we will have regular deliveries of weapons.
08:58The sort of thing, the sort of shenanigans we're seeing in Washington,
09:03you know, with the vice president, the president saying that they'll just walk away
09:06or they may not walk away.
09:08And no one benefits from this sort of, you know, hesitancy.
09:13It frees the transatlantic unity.
09:17And it actually says a very bad signal to the world that America does not stand by its allies.
09:25Peter, thank you so much for your analysis.
09:27We're going to have to leave it there.
09:29Of course, we could discuss longer, but we're running out of time.
09:31Peter, again, thank you for joining us.
09:33That's Peter Zelmeyev, director of the Eurasia Democracy Institute.
Be the first to comment