00:00Well, with Moscow offering to sell oil and Ukraine proposing drone experts and systems,
00:04the war on Iran is spreading over to that war as well.
00:07To get a better insight on what impact it could have,
00:10we can speak now to a professor of international politics at the University College Dublin.
00:14Scott Lucas, thanks so much for joining us.
00:16Firstly, can you maybe tell us a bit more about this offer from Ukraine,
00:19which is fighting its own war?
00:20What can it really do for who and what realistically could it get in return?
00:27Well, the first thing it could do for those states who are facing Iranian retaliation in the region
00:33and for the United States, who has partnered with them,
00:37is to provide some bolstering of limited defenses against that Iranian drone and missile retaliation.
00:44We don't know how long Iran can maintain its pace of strikes,
00:47but drones are fairly inexpensive to use in attack.
00:51So you need, as that report summarized, that inexpensive way of trying to counter them.
00:56And Ukraine is now in the fifth year of a Russian invasion, which is first and foremost a drone war.
01:03So you send across Ukraine's drone technology, and it's now amongst the leaders in the world.
01:09You send across the experts who have developed that technology,
01:12and you send across those experts who operate the drones and drone defenses.
01:18It's not going to, you know, completely stop the Iranian retaliatory threat,
01:22but it's a significant contribution.
01:25What does Ukraine want?
01:26Ukraine wants to try to lock in U.S. support.
01:32The U.S.-Russia-Ukraine talks are not going to get a ceasefire.
01:36The Kremlin is not going to agree to that.
01:37So what Ukraine needs is they need longer-term reassurance from the U.S. added to the existence support from
01:46Europe and other countries,
01:47which is our own air defenses, contribute to those, and contribute to the security guarantees that we need if we
01:55can ever halt the Russian invasion.
01:57It seems like a lot is in the United States.
02:00I mean, a lot of the weapons that Ukraine was getting were being sold by the United States.
02:05The United States now using missiles for its war on Iran.
02:09I mean, to what extent do you think the White House will be interested in this drone interceptors enough to
02:14prompt them to change maybe their stance with Ukraine?
02:19Well, I think they're interested in the drone interceptors.
02:21Let's be clear about that.
02:22The U.S. military wants them.
02:23Now, how much will a fairly unpredictable and chaotic Trump camp do to bolster Ukraine?
02:31And you've already mentioned in your report that at the same time, we consider whether the Trump folks will realize
02:37that Ukrainian security is essential.
02:39They have relaxed sanctions on Russia, notably through a 30-day waiver on India purchasing Russian oil,
02:46which, of course, gives Russia revenues at a time when its invasion is struggling and when the Russian economy has
02:53problems.
02:54It also should be noted that, you know, even if the U.S. relaxed and said, well, maybe we'll provide
03:00some patriot air defense systems,
03:02you've highlighted that we're finding that those very expensive air defense systems are not the complete answer here.
03:08Add to that the fact that some Pentagon officials tried to cut off U.S. military aid entirely.
03:12I don't think we're going to see a significant U.S. contribution to air defenses in Ukraine.
03:17But do we ensure that the Trump camp do not ally with the Kremlin in demanding a Ukrainian surrender,
03:25which they did as late as last October through Donald Trump's envoys who were actually colluding with the Kremlin on
03:32an ultimatum to Kiev?
03:33If Ukraine can fend that off, that is some type of reward for this contribution to the defense against the
03:41Iranian retaliation.
03:42And can you bring a bit of insight into Russia's position in all of this?
03:46I mean, obviously, it's happy to sell oil that has been off the market since it invaded Ukraine, but it
03:50is also an ally of Iran.
03:53Well, the problem with Russia's alliance with Iran is you don't know where the Iranian regime is going to be
04:00next.
04:01And even if the Iranian regime continues to survive, which I think it will, it has been badly battered.
04:07And if Russia gets too close to Iran while the ongoing U.S. and Israel attacks continue, Russia is going
04:14to be affected as well,
04:15even if that's not a direct military intervention by the Kremlin.
04:18Secondly, if Russia gets too close to Iran, it can upset Donald Trump.
04:24And if you upset Donald Trump, then he might decide that Vladimir Putin rather than Vladimir Zelensky is the bad
04:29guy in this situation.
04:31So I think Russia is going to simply be very careful.
04:35It'll make statements denouncing the war, but not do much more.
04:39More importantly for me is, is it trying to recharge on the Ukraine front?
04:45It lost territory in February.
04:47It did not gain territory in February, notably because Starlink was cut to its troops after a deal between Ukraine
04:53and Elon Musk.
04:54So Russia's trying to figure out where they go next in terms of their ground assault and in terms of
05:00their aerial attacks.
05:02I think they'll continue those attacks.
05:04But I think Russia's in a position of its own cul-de-sac in its invasion, even as Donald Trump
05:10wobbles over his invasion or his attacks on Iran.
05:14And very finally, Mr. Lucas, what do you make of the timing of this war on Iran by the U
05:20.S. and Israel?
05:22That's the easiest question you can ask me.
05:24I mean, Israel wants regime change in Iran.
05:26They didn't get it last June 2025.
05:29On February 26th, Donald Trump's envoys, the real estate developer Steve Witkoff, his son-in-law Jared Kushner, had their
05:37talks in Geneva with Iran.
05:39Iran restated, we're not going to give up our nuclear program entirely, even though that's a civilian nuclear program.
05:45And we're not going to severely limit our ballistic missile program.
05:49So Witkoff and Kushner went back to Washington.
05:52And that's when the Trump camp said, OK, if Iran won't surrender on those two points, we're joining the Israelis
05:58in the attack.
05:59Professor Lucas, we'll have to leave it there.
06:00But thank you so much indeed for your time and bringing us your insight.
06:04Much appreciated.
Comments