AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva appeared live on the AccuWeather Network on Oct. 15 to provide an updated forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season and to share insights on a newly developing tropical wave off the coast of Africa.
00:00Alex, before we get into what's upcoming here, let's talk about the forecast.
00:06You know, once you make a forecast, sometimes there's a few tweaks here and there.
00:10We've made one to our hurricane season forecast here.
00:14Yeah, we did. And in regard to the hurricane numbers, last update we had six to nine hurricanes.
00:20We think that eight and nine is probably out of reach at this time, given the fact that we've only seen four so far.
00:25So what we did is we just kind of collapsed around the bottom end of our range and said around six.
00:30So I think we can still see one or two more hurricanes for sure the rest of the hurricane season, especially potentially one coming up next week.
00:38So that's the only the change we made. We didn't change any impacts to the United States.
00:44We still have a month and a half to go and we want people to still remain vigilant as it's still possible to get U.S. impacts even all the way through November.
00:51I said this earlier. I think it's been an odd hurricane season thus far.
00:57We've had so much wind shear. And then take a look at this.
01:02Everything, with the exception of Barry, is in the Atlantic.
01:06Now, listen, the Atlantic's a bigger basin compared to the Caribbean and the Gulf.
01:10We get that. But but still, it's a little odd.
01:12Not one system, not one in the Caribbean so far.
01:17Yeah, it's been a very odd season. The Bermuda High has been a little bit further to the east this year, a little bit weaker.
01:23So it's allowed those storms to take that hard right hand turn out over the ocean.
01:27Some have still come close enough to bring direct impacts to the United States.
01:30But luckily, most have stayed offshore and you can see them all kind of taking that hook out.
01:37But, you know, what this does is it essentially allowed the Gulf and the Caribbean water temperatures to get exceptionally, exceptionally warm.
01:45And so the concern is that as we go out through the rest of the hurricane season, if anything's able to get into those areas, they're going to be tapping into untapped energy.
01:54All right. We'll keep an eye on Lorenzo. We're going to track it, not heading toward the United States.
01:59But it was last week you and I start looking at this and I said this is going to be the one to watch.
02:04Because unlike a lot of the waves coming off Africa that have been pretty far north, around 15, 20 degrees north, this one's a lot farther south.
02:14Is this the farthest wave that we've seen so far this year come off Africa?
02:19I want to say yes.
02:20Yeah, it might be. At least it's the further south, most organized wave.
02:24There could have been other waves that have come further south that, you know, really didn't have much organization to it.
02:29But you can see it's a pretty robust tropical wave.
02:31The only thing that's really holding it back, I think, from starting to develop is that it's so far south that the Coriolis force,
02:38which helps these systems essentially turn, is so low once you get to 10 degrees or south of that line.
02:45You can have development down there, but it's awfully hard.
02:48And so since this is so far south, I think it's going to struggle at least in the short term
02:52until it's able to gain latitude by the time next week comes around and it's going into the Caribbean.
02:58Then I think we can see some development with this as it's getting into the Caribbean.
03:03And we have a low risk on it now for next week in the Caribbean because it has some other hurdles.
03:10I don't think they're impossible hurdles, but, you know, there it is right there.
03:17There's some dry air in its pathway.
03:20I wouldn't say there's a lot, but you could see a little.
03:22Yeah, there's a little bit of dry air.
03:24But overall, compared to some of the other waves this season, it's in a pretty good moisture pocket.
03:29And you can see some of the shear on the left side of the screen there.
03:32That's kind of backing out of the way.
03:34Most of the shear is either well west of the storm or the wave or well north of the wave.
03:39So I think it's going to have a bit of a window here where as long as it can maintain itself coming through the eastern Atlantic,
03:46by the time it gets into the Caribbean, boy, oh, boy, look at these water temperatures here, these anomalies, rather,
03:52how much warmer they are compared to average.
03:55Everywhere in this dark orange indicates water temperatures that are several degrees higher than what you would expect for this time of the year.
04:02And, again, a lot of that has to go back to do or goes back to do to the fact that we haven't had any storms in this area yet to really mix up those waters.
04:10I said this before.
04:12This is the storm that could define the season.
04:16If it could get through the hurdles, if it survives, because you and I just looked at the conditions in the central Caribbean
04:22where this will be in some way, shape, or form, middle part, latter half of next week,
04:27and conditions look ideal for development here.
04:30Yeah, they certainly do.
04:31The wind shear really drops off, especially in the central Caribbean.
04:35The water temperatures are there.
04:36There's upper level support for this.
04:38You know, I think the only question is, is it going to be able to make it, or will the dry air,
04:44or will the fact that it's so far south be able to essentially prevent that development?
04:48But we're a long way out.
04:49This wouldn't be until really next week by the time it gets into that area.
04:54So a long way out.
04:55But we are starting to raise some signals here that we could see some potential development.
05:01And if anything develops in that area, it could intensify rather quickly.
05:04Now, you'll notice on this graphic, we decided to put that dip in the jet stream off the east coast,
05:10which is non-tropical.
05:11And there's a reason for that, because that becomes the key to where this is going to go.
05:18Where's the location of it?
05:20What's the depth of it?
05:22Because this trough, if it is strong enough, would start to draw this northward.
05:27And again, we're talking about a lot of hypotheticals based on what that storm is going to do,
05:33assuming it survives.
05:34But if it's in the central Caribbean, and that dip in the jet stream is strong enough,
05:39it's going to pull it northward.
05:41Yeah, it very well could.
05:42And especially if the storm is stronger.
05:43The stronger the storm is in the Caribbean, the more likely it has to get pulled north.
05:48If it stays a little bit weaker, it's more likely to go west.
05:50But this isn't until the end of next week, so plenty of time to watch it.
05:53We have a lot to watch over the next couple of weeks.
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