High risk for tropical development

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva was live on the AccuWeather Network on Nov. 12 to talk about a new risk for tropical development in the Caribbean.

Transcript

00:00Joining us right now is AccuA, the lead hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva.

00:04And, you know, Alex, above all, ahead of all other known sources, including the National

00:08Hurricane Center, we've been highlighting this area in the Western Caribbean for the last week,

00:14and we upgraded this to a high chance for development late yesterday morning.

00:20Yeah, and I don't think we're just going to be dealing with a tropical storm here.

00:23I think we could potentially be dealing with a hurricane as we head into the weekend.

00:27Very high confidence that we think something is going to develop here

00:30in the central to western Caribbean here late this week and into the weekend.

00:35The atmosphere is very, very primed for development.

00:38Let's talk about we're already seeing where the energy is.

00:40Here it is.

00:41It is south of Hispaniola.

00:43Now, right now, there's a number of clusters of thunderstorms, and that speaks to the fact

00:47that it's not organized right now.

00:50But everything, I think, is falling in line for this to develop.

00:55Yeah, I don't think anything's going to really happen in the next day or two.

00:58But at the end of the weekend, certainly into the weekend, we could be dealing

01:02with something that could try to rapidly intensify.

01:05You can see the wind shear product here.

01:06It's pretty much very, very light wind shear denoted there by that very light purple color.

01:11So very favorable environment now around the Caribbean, not so favorable.

01:15But where we think this will develop looks like it's very favorable for development.

01:20You know, the other story, and we talked about this all hurricane season,

01:24was just how warm the water is.

01:26Now, our product you're looking at right now is not the warm.

01:30It's not the water temperatures.

01:31It's the actual ocean heat content.

01:35Explain that to our viewers in the Gulf of Mexico and also into the Caribbean here.

01:39Yeah, you've heard us talk about this a lot.

01:41And so those darker colors indicate how deep that warm water extends.

01:45Now, we've seen multiple storms move through the western Caribbean,

01:48but the water temperatures really haven't changed that much

01:51because that warm water extends so far down,

01:53hundreds and hundreds of feet below the surface of the ocean there.

01:57And so that gives tropical cyclones plenty, plenty of energy to work with.

02:01In the western Caribbean, this is where the highest ocean heat content is.

02:05And that's why I'm very concerned that this could

02:07intensify into a hurricane sometime this weekend,

02:10could even try to intensify into a major hurricane,

02:13given those atmospheric conditions that look very, very favorable.

02:16Let's talk about the snapshot here as we go through the rest of this week, Alex.

02:20Yeah, so as the system moves into the western Caribbean,

02:23like I said, the atmospheric conditions are going to be very, very favorable.

02:26So we could see this develop rather quickly late this week and into the weekend.

02:30And I think we're going to certainly be dealing with a hurricane this weekend,

02:34you know, could even make a run here towards major hurricane.

02:37And then the big question is, right, where does it go from there?

02:40And I think there's really two scenarios here.

02:42One, we're going to be watching that area of high pressure to the north,

02:45similar to the last storm.

02:46Now, if that area of high pressure is stronger,

02:49it'll just push it west into Central America, into Mexico.

02:52But if there's a little bit of a window, if that high is a little bit weaker,

02:55that can allow a bit of a turn to the north.

02:58So Florida is going to have to keep a very, very close eye on this one.

03:02All right, Acuba, the lead hurricane expert out.

03:04By the way, Alex, pretty impressive on a bad scale here.

03:08And we both expect this to be a hurricane.

03:10This will be the 12th hurricane of the season.

03:14Really quickly, just talk about how the strength of the season

03:17pertaining to the number of hurricanes we've seen.

03:20Yeah, it's far above average in terms of the number of hurricanes.

03:23And I think a lot of that has to do with the really warm ocean temperatures.

03:26You've heard us talking about that all year long.

03:28The water temperatures, well, well above average.

03:31And again, it's not only about the water temperatures.

03:33It's that depth. It's that ocean heat content,

03:35basically breaking records for the entirety of the season.

03:38I think that's one of the major drivers of why this season has been so active.

03:42All right, Acuba, the hurricane expert, meteorologist Alex Da Silva.

03:45Thanks, Alex, for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.

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