The tranquility in the Atlantic is over!

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Geoff Cornish discuss the formation of Tropical Storm Gabrielle, marking the end of a long, quiet period in the Atlantic basin.

Transcript

00:00And the tranquility is over. Tropical Depression No. 7 forming this morning, ending a stretch

00:07since August 29th of no activity in the Atlantic Basin. The last time we've seen something like

00:13that was 1992, but it's over. Let me show you Tropical Depression No. 7. Here it is. You know

00:21what? Doesn't look as big as it did yesterday, but still a nice little clustering here of showers

00:26and thunderstorms. But there's some difficulties that this is going to overcome. Remember yesterday

00:34at all week, we were talking about how the dry air was being pushed away from this system? I don't see

00:39that any longer. In fact, you could see pockets of dry air. In fact, let me zoom in. I mean, take a

00:45look at this. There's pockets of dry air. The center of circulation is down in here. There's dry air

00:50awfully close to that. And there's no question that that is going to be limiting development

00:56over the next 24 hours. In fact, I don't see a whole lot going on with this system moving forward

01:02here. And there's also wind shear. Wind shear is going to be a huge problem here. Now, where it is

01:07right now, you see the light purple. That's lower wind shear. However, in here, you'll notice some dark

01:14purple. That's where this is going. Now, all along, we've been talking about the fact that the wind

01:20shear would start to lessen moving forward. Here's what I want to do now. And this is what I like

01:26about the feed. It's the science behind the forecast. I'm going to show you some of the

01:30computer models that I look at. You're always going to hear me talk about the European model

01:34because I think it's the best. They're all flawed, but I like this model the most. What it's showing

01:40is you see this energy, the red? This is our tropical depression number seven. And you notice how big

01:46it is elongated. That tells me that at least from the European model perspective, this is still not

01:52a tropical storm. Let's see if we can get there. But here's the problem. We talked about the dry air.

01:57What about the wind shear? Where do we look for a wind shear? One of the models I use is the 200

02:01millibar, 40,000 feet. So the storm is in here and there's still some wind shear. You see that?

02:08Out of the West Southwest. Let's take you to tomorrow evening. So this is Thursday evening.

02:12You'll notice it tightens up a little bit right here. There it is. What does the wind shear look

02:18like? Much less. Let me show it to you right there. See, it's right in here. Still some,

02:24but it's lighter winds. You see the darker colors? You see these light colors in here? That's showing

02:30lighter winds. By Friday evening, what does it look like here? Here it is moving to the East Northeast

02:35right in here. What does the wind shear look like in that area? Pretty light. Out of the South. But I'll

02:41tell you what, it's still not perfect. And that tells me this is going to take some time before

02:47this becomes a hurricane. Do not look for that, if at all, until next week. But again, the track of

02:53this system will be heading toward Bermuda on Tuesday. No threat for the United States. Now,

02:59I want to take you to our next tropical system that we're going to be watching here. This

03:04is a tropical wave right in here. Let me go back. I went a little forward here. So this is the tropical

03:11wave that we're tracking right now. Doesn't look all that impressive, and I'm not expecting to be

03:17impressive. In fact, this is what we're looking at here over the next couple of days. A low risk of

03:23development over the weekend. I think it is very unlikely that this is going to develop in the

03:29Caribbean as we head over the next couple of days. Now, it's going to enter the Caribbean early next

03:35week. And that's when we have to watch it a little bit here. Let me show you why. Because I want to

03:41show you the wind shear. This is another product showing wind shear, but it's easy to see. Let's look

03:46at the wind shear in the Caribbean here as we go in the next week. Look at this. You don't see any

03:53colors here, do you? If this remains intact and can get into the Caribbean next week, that's where you

04:03have to watch for some development. But it could be gone and sheared out before it gets into the

04:08Caribbean. But if it gets into that area of low wind shear, look out. But don't look for any land

04:14falling storms in the United States for the next week to 10 days. And that's a huge statement. And that's

04:20the feed.

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