00:00Now, later this week, I think there's going to be a storm probably north and east of the islands.
00:07But right now, there's no need to even wonder, because we're going to bring them in.
00:12AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DeSilva.
00:14You know, Alex, when we left last week, we were pretty confident that that tropical wave coming off Africa on Friday would become a storm.
00:23And certainly, there's nothing that we look at this morning that says that that's not going to happen.
00:28Yeah, confidence continues to be pretty high.
00:31That will at least probably get a tropical storm out of this here by late week, it looks like.
00:36Looking pretty good on satellite right now.
00:38You can see that cluster of showers and thunderstorms there in the highlighted circled area there.
00:42So it's got a good moisture pocket that it's working with right now as it's pushing westward.
00:47But you can see it's still very far away from the islands, moving through an area of low to maybe moderate wind shear.
00:53But overall, pretty favorable conditions for gradual intensification here.
00:58As it moves to the north and to the west.
01:00Now, we talked about this yesterday, last week, that there would end up being a storm.
01:05Now, it could be a hurricane.
01:07There's still maybe one or two outliers that suggest this stays weak, heads into the northern Caribbean.
01:14But the preponderance of evidence suggests this strengthens and then eventually turns north of the islands.
01:21And there's very to no pathway to the United States.
01:26Yeah, that's some good news for the United States, certainly.
01:28I think we're going to have a tropical storm mid to late week as it's approaching the islands.
01:32And then it looks like it makes that turn, maybe clipping the northern Lesser Antilles and then turning away from the United States.
01:39I think that's the most likely scenario at this time.
01:42There's going to be a trough coming into the east that's going to kick it out.
01:45But you can see here, we run the animation through.
01:48You can see the storm there on the far right of your screen there, beginning to make that turn.
01:52And the reason we're seeing that is this big dip in the jet stream coming all the way down into the southeast.
01:58This is going to act like a roadblock and is going to deflect the storm to the north and away from the United States.
02:04Now, a couple of things, though, with that dip in the jet stream, there's two possible systems that could develop with that system as it moves on through.
02:16Let's begin a little area of low pressure as we head toward latter half of this week off the Carolina coast.
02:23Yeah, I think we could be dealing with some sort of hybrid storm.
02:26Not sure it's going to get a name, but I'm pretty confident we're going to at least be getting some large coastal storm here to form late in the week and into the weekend.
02:33Then it's going to gradually move up the coast towards the mid-Atlantic.
02:37It's going to be blocked from going out to sea, I think, by an area of high pressure.
02:41So at the very least, I'm expecting there to be rain and wind late week and into the weekend along the east coast here.
02:47Maybe it gets a name, maybe it doesn't, but I'm pretty confident we're at least going to have a coastal storm here.
02:53And whenever you get a dip in the jet stream that deep, you have to always look south of that dip.
02:59It will take a few days, but you know what?
03:02This is an area that we've been pointing to for the middle part of October for quite some time.
03:09It indeed is.
03:10And when you get those troughs to come all the way down, sometimes you can activate the gyre.
03:14Sometimes you can get some spin off the end of the trough.
03:16So there's many different ways you can get tropical development once you get the troughs to come that far south.
03:21But, yeah, those waters are exceptionally, exceptionally warm down there.
03:25So it's certainly possible that something tries to develop down there mid-October.
03:29So we have to keep a very close eye out for the southeastern Gulf or the western Caribbean.
03:35Homegrown development, always a problem this time of the year.
03:38Accu with our lead hurricane expert, Alex De Silva.
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