Updated outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's lead hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva, joined Bernie Rayno to discuss the recent revisions to AccuWeather's 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast.

Transcript

00:00It was back in March that we put out our hurricane forecast. We always do that during the

00:04late winter months as we prepare for the hurricane season here. And the decision was made between you

00:11and also the long-range team, meteorologist Paul Pastelok and Joe Lumberg. We have a little bit of

00:16a change for you. Yeah, a very minor change. I mean, at the end of the day, some of this just

00:21comes down to math. I mean, when we put the forecast out in March, we did think that there

00:26was going to be a midsummer lull. We predicted that way back in March. The midsummer lull has

00:30lasted maybe a week or two, a little bit longer than we may have thought way back in the springtime.

00:36So as a result, we just took the top end of the tropical storms down a little bit. Originally,

00:40we had 13 to 18. Now we have 13 to 16. So very minor change there. And for hurricanes, we just

00:45took the number down one. But the key, the most important thing is all the way on the right side

00:51of your screen here. We did not change the impacts to the United States. We still

00:56expect a busy second half of the season. And we are not changing the number of forecasted

01:01impacts to the United States, three to six total for the season.

01:05So far this season, really, the storm that was the biggest and the strongest and last

01:12of the longest was Aaron. That was our only hurricane. It was a major hurricane. But we

01:17have had storms that right now were near the historical average, numbering six.

01:23Yeah. And Chantal was the other one that moved inland to the United States. So that also brought

01:28impacts to the Carolinas as well. We got very lucky with Aaron moving just offshore. Still

01:32brought direct impacts. It was such a large, large storm. So we still have seen some impacts

01:37so far in the United States. But I do expect that as we transition to that second half of

01:42the hurricane season, we've reached the peak. Yesterday, September 10th, was the statistical

01:47peak of the hurricane season. Now we're going down the other side of the slope right now. But I think that that

01:52that second half of the season is going to be more active than the first half.

01:56Well, the statistical probability starts to go down. Remember, that is an average over,

02:03you know, decades of storms. And as we learned last year, things can stay very busy through the

02:12month of October. All right, Alex, let's take a look at what we're looking at right now. We have

02:18two areas that we're highlighting and a little bit of a change in the tropical Atlantic.

02:24Yeah, first of all, the area off the southeast coast, not too worried about this one. A lot of

02:28wind shear should rip anything that tries to form there apart. So not really concerned about that

02:32area. More concern maybe about that next tropical wave coming off of Africa. We've got plenty,

02:38plenty of time to watch it. It's not even out over the Atlantic yet. So lots of time to watch it.

02:42Early indications are that it should turn away from land. But again, we are very far out. But that is

02:48the next thing on the list to watch here over the next week or so. You know, there's been a lot of

02:53dry air. But you know, you often mentioned this, that you get these other weak tropical waves that

02:58often precede a storm. And what they do is they kind of whittle away at hostile conditions. And you

03:05could see while there's a lot of dry air on the right hand side of the screen off the west coast of

03:10Africa, you're starting to see a little more white and blue than what we've seen this week.

03:15Yeah. And that's exactly why we think that that tropical wave might have a better chance of

03:19developing here because there's a few tropical waves that are out in front of that wave that

03:23might clear the wave, prime the pump essentially for those tropical waves. But man, you can really

03:28still see a lot of wind shear in the basin right now. It's not ideal conditions for development.

03:34So even if this tropical wave is able to develop, I do think any development would likely be slow and

03:39gradual because there's still going to be some dry air. And late in the month, though,

03:43we do really expect that dry air and wind shear to come down. But any any development with that

03:48wave should be gradual. What I see here and then we'll throw it to Ariella here. Look at that dark

03:53purple north of the islands, the Lesser Antilles. That's a roadblock for anything coming toward the

03:59east coast of the United States.

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