00:00Alex, a very unprecedented stretch of tranquility in the tropics.
00:07We saw something similar last year, but not as long.
00:10But that stretch of tranquility did end the other day, and we're still tracking Tropical Storm Gabrielle.
00:17Looking better than yesterday, but still not healthy.
00:20Yeah, it certainly is. Still dealing with some wind shear right now, pushing all those showers and thunderstorms to the east of the circulation right now.
00:27But we are seeing a reduction of the wind shear starting to take hold right now.
00:31You are seeing more showers and thunderstorms getting a little bit closer to the center of circulation.
00:36The winds really haven't changed a whole lot over the last day or so.
00:40But I think that here over the next 12 to 24 hours, that wind shear will continue to wane.
00:45And that dry air will start to move out of the way as well, allowing this storm to slowly begin to strengthen as it moves a little closer to Bermuda.
00:53You know, it does look as though now the dry air is kind of getting pushed away.
00:57Still within the center of circulation, it'll take some time to get rid of that.
01:01But what's interesting, when you look at our wind shear product, you start to see this little area, and we've been anticipating this,
01:09of lighter purple and less wind shear kind of to the north and northwest of the system where it's likely to track.
01:17Exactly. You can kind of see Bermuda there. It's a little hard to see at the top of the screen there.
01:21But you can see this pathway where the storm is going to be moving here over the next couple of days or so.
01:26And we expect it to become a hurricane sometime this weekend or early, early next week here.
01:31So as it's passing to the east of the islands there of Bermuda.
01:35So there still could be some impacts on the islands if it gets a little bit further west.
01:39But right now, it looks like it would be a glancing blow to the islands there.
01:44You know, when we look at our computer models, I'm going to show you that coming up at the feed here in about a few minutes at 845.
01:51The one thing that we've noticed, Alex, moving forward is that we've been tracking the northwest Caribbean as an area to watch.
02:03And we're starting to see right now there's no window for anything coming toward the United States or landfall the next week.
02:11But we do believe there's a window beginning to open.
02:15Yeah, I think it will be opening here as we get a little bit closer to the end of the month here.
02:19Conditions are going to become a little more favorable for development in the western Caribbean.
02:23And we're tracking that tropical wave that's going to be moving west here over the next couple of days.
02:29You know, if I were to pick an area that I'm most concerned about, it would be Florida out of anybody that could potentially see those impacts.
02:38Now, let's talk about this tropical wave.
02:39We decided as a team, even though this is not really being tracked by anybody, including National Hurricane Center,
02:45but we decided we're going to keep an eye on this.
02:47It does have many hurdles to get through through this weekend and even in the early next week.
02:55Yeah, I've been saying this is kind of going to go incognito almost.
02:58It's going to kind of be, you know, just going west, you know, no big deal.
03:02But if it can survive that journey through some shear, through some dry air by that,
03:07if there's anything left of it by the time it gets into the central and western Caribbean here,
03:11that wouldn't be until late next week.
03:13Then we could potentially start to see some development with it.
03:17It's a low chance for now.
03:19You know, we're not sounding the alarms or anything yet.
03:21But we just want people to be aware that there could be something lurking in the western Caribbean or far southern Gulf here,
03:27you know, September 26th to the 28th, you know.
03:31So, you know, just because it's not doing a whole lot right now,
03:34we still need to watch it as it makes its journey across.
03:37And the reason why we're kind of picking Florida, because when you look at some of our tools,
03:42there's still lots of wind shear in the northern Gulf, still lots of westerly wind.
03:47So that's why we think Florida would be the most likely landing spot with anything that would form.
03:53And, you know, Alex, we're even thinking about that maybe something instead of in the northwest Caribbean,
03:58it could even be in the southwest Atlantic during this time frame near the Bahamas.
04:04Yeah, it could be related to the same wave.
04:07There is a chance that as this wave is coming through the Caribbean,
04:09maybe it gets drawn up a little bit quicker.
04:12You know, we haven't included the southwestern Atlantic quite yet.
04:18But, you know, if trends continue to show that possibility,
04:21we may have to extend this area a little bit further to the north and to the east
04:25just to account for maybe a little bit of an earlier turn with that tropical wave.
04:29And even that wave coming off Africa now, we have a low chance for development on that.
04:33I just wonder if that could be in the equation, too.
04:37Maybe that can get into the southwest Atlantic by early October.
04:40So it's like there's many possibilities, and that's what complicates the forecast.
04:47Yeah, it certainly does.
04:48And like we talk about a lot, I think if this tropical wave strengthens a little bit quicker,
04:52it has a more likely chance of turning out to sea.
04:55But if it stays a little bit weaker in the short term,
04:57that's how it could end up a little bit further west.
05:00AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.
05:03Alex, thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.
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