00:00We go from Bermuda to Alex DaSilva, our lead hurricane expert this morning.
00:06And, you know, Alex, I was talking with Jeff Cornish last week as I dropped the cap there.
00:12I was talking with Jeff Cornish last week, and he was going over the numbers.
00:17And this is very impressive that so far we have not had a tropical system since August 29th.
00:25And you have to go way back to get a stretch of inactivity this time of the year for this length in the Atlantic.
00:33Yeah, indeed you do.
00:34It's been certainly a very long time since we've seen a tropical system in the Atlantic.
00:39And, again, way back to 1992.
00:41But that was the big year with Hurricane Andrew.
00:44So just because it's a quiet season now does not mean it's going to continue.
00:49One thing you were just telling me about with this low-pressure system off the Carolina coast,
00:54we decided to put a low probability for tropical development.
00:59Boy, there's a lot of lightning with this system on the northern side.
01:03Yeah, there certainly is.
01:04It's going to move in sometime later on tonight or tomorrow morning.
01:07Most likely will not develop into a tropical system.
01:10But at the very least, it's going to bring some really heavy rainfall
01:13to portions of eastern North Carolina and portions of Virginia.
01:17All right, here's the tropical wave we're going to keep an eye on here in the Atlantic.
01:21Not quite halfway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
01:26But what's impressive here is that you have a lot of reds and oranges and yellows in there.
01:32And it's consistent in its presentation.
01:36Yeah, indeed it is.
01:36It's dealing with a little bit of dry air right now.
01:39And most of the wind shear is to the north.
01:41But overall, it's maintaining itself right now.
01:44And you can see that pocket of moisture where it's at right now.
01:47A lot of that dry air is mainly west of where this cluster of showers and thunderstorms is located.
01:53There is a lot of shear to the north, however.
01:55Yeah, you can see that in the dark purple there.
01:59But note the little pocket between that system and the islands,
02:04that little area where you have a light purple.
02:07We think that that's going to be expanding northward.
02:12And eventually that system gets into that area.
02:15Yeah, I think it does.
02:16And I think by the end of the week sometime,
02:17the environmental conditions get a lot more favorable for development here as it approaches the islands.
02:23The most likely track would take it north of the islands,
02:27you know, sometime over the weekend or early next week.
02:29And then we have to watch Bermuda as well early next week as it looks like a big dip in the jet stream
02:35should keep the storm deflected out to sea.
02:38Yeah, it's a big statement to make that we don't see any landfalling hurricanes for the United States.
02:45Here we are in mid-September and we feel pretty strong that we won't see anything
02:49at least in the early and the middle part of next week.
02:53But this is the tropical wave you and I were talking about last week.
02:57It's the parting Africa.
02:58And this one is a little more problematic.
03:01Yeah, it could be.
03:02This one could go a little bit lower, you know, in terms of latitude.
03:05Sometimes we call these low riders.
03:07So this one might not turn out to sea.
03:10It might just continue to move west.
03:11So if it can survive that journey with the sheer and dry air,
03:15we need to watch the Caribbean very closely.
03:17And then we'll see how far west it can get.
03:20Yeah, because if anything can get in the Caribbean,
03:22and this is something you and the team have highlighted,
03:25boy, the water temperatures are super-duper warm here.
03:27There's a lot of wind shear right now in the Caribbean,
03:30but that's forecast to back off in the coming week or so.
03:35Yeah, and then we have to watch.
03:36If it can make it into the Western Caribbean or even into the Gulf,
03:40we have to really watch out because those water temperatures are still exceptionally warm.
03:44We really haven't had any tropical systems go through that region this entire year.
03:48So the waters are basically untouched.
03:51All right.
03:51AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DeSilva,
03:54thanks for breaking it down here on AccuWeather Early.
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