AccuWeather's Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva appeared live on the AccuWeather Network on Sept. 24 to provide the latest updates on two tropical waves in the Atlantic and their potential impact on the United States.
00:00Joining us right now, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.
00:04And Alex, a pretty complicated setup in the Atlantic.
00:10Now, typically we wouldn't use complicated, but we have two systems within about, what, 700 miles of each other
00:18that can both develop, and you don't see a setup like this a lot in the Atlantic.
00:25Yeah, it's actually more common way out in the western Pacific where you can get two systems that end up
00:29really close to one another, and we'll talk about it in a minute, what can happen.
00:32It's actually called the Fujiwara effect.
00:34If we can get two storms that actually form within close proximity to one another,
00:38there's actually an impact on the track that will happen.
00:42Again, we'll get to that in a minute, but looking out here, you can see the two areas that we're highlighting.
00:46One on the eastern side, that one actually we have a track for right now, dealing with a little dry air right now
00:52and some shear, and then the other area is actually in the northeastern Caribbean right now,
00:56bringing very, very heavy rain to portions of Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands.
01:00Those areas are going to be dealing with very heavy rain throughout the day today.
01:04Well, as I say, let's take them one at a time.
01:06Now, this system, a bigger area, I would say it's a little better organized,
01:11but it's still disorganized as it's fighting wind shear.
01:15Yeah, it's not an ideal environment for intensification, which is certainly good news right now.
01:20But I think gradual intensification is likely here over the next couple of days.
01:24And we expect it to become a tropical storm maybe as early as this evening or tomorrow
01:29as it continues to push to the northwest.
01:31Then we're thinking it's going to eventually turn to the north and might pass between the Outer Banks
01:36and Bermuda sometime early next week.
01:40But again, a lot of this might actually depend on what happens with the other storm we're tracking.
01:45Let's remember, we decided to track this tropical wave.
01:48We have it highlighted. There it is across the islands.
01:50You know, a lot of sources just said it's no longer viable.
01:55We thought that it would.
01:57It would take, as you said, a little bit of a hiatus.
02:00It would go incognito.
02:02But then as it approached the Caribbean, we were worried that conditions would be more favorable.
02:08Certainly now, this is very disorganized.
02:11Yeah, right now, not really showing a lot right now.
02:13But it is bringing very, very heavy rain to portions of Puerto Rico right now.
02:17And, you know, anybody out there is going to have to be very careful.
02:20We're concerned about some mudslide potentials across that area as well.
02:24But overall, not going to develop, I think, over the next day or so.
02:27But as it moves into the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas, that wind shear, I think, backs off a little bit.
02:32And there's going to be a window in there with those really warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear that I think we're going to see tropical development.
02:38You know, so that would be a couple days from now, likely.
02:41But this is the area that we're concerned with for that development in the next few days.
02:46Now, as we get into Sunday and then Monday, this will be located.
02:51And again, until we get the exact center, there's a lot of debate on exactly where it is.
02:55But we do think it will be off the east coast of Florida.
02:57Now, when you look at the weather pattern, I'm going to be talking about this at the feed at 845.
03:02You would think that this might get drawn northward into the Carolinas early next week.
03:09But our system that we think is going to be a hurricane can kind of change the wind flow.
03:16And when you have two storms in the same proximity, we have a name for it.
03:20Yeah, it's called the Fujiwara effect.
03:22And if you have two storms that are within about 870 miles or so, they begin to interact with one another.
03:28If one storm is much stronger than the other, more likely it will just draw the other one in.
03:33So if that eastern one is much stronger than the one coming into the Bahamas, it'll likely just suck that storm in and absorb it.
03:39However, if the storms are within, you know, close intensity of one another, they'll actually start to rotate around each other.
03:46So that's the concern is that we could have some tracks here that, you know, it could take some weird turns.
03:52And so that one that we're expecting to turn out to see, we have to watch that one as well because if it starts to interact,
03:58maybe it gets a little closer to the United States.
04:00So a lot to figure out here over the next couple of days.
04:03And a lot of this will be determined on what happens with each of those two storms.
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