Tropical trouble may develop along the Southeast coast

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Alex DaSilva was live on the AccuWeather Network on July 2 with an update on the potential for tropical development along the Southeast coast.

Transcript

00:00Our hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva, joining us live here this morning.

00:04You know, Alex, one of your main talking points for the hurricane season,

00:10which you guys issued back, I think, in February,

00:14is that we would have early season development.

00:18Not much happened for a while, then all of a sudden, last week, boom.

00:23We got Andrea and we had Barry.

00:26Yeah, this is something that we've been concerned about

00:28all the way back into the winter months

00:30when we were starting to look at the outlook for the hurricane season.

00:33And we were concerned that the water temperatures,

00:35especially a little bit closer to home, Western Caribbean and into the Gulf,

00:38were warmer than expected, warmer than average.

00:41And so we've already seen two storms pop off right away.

00:44And the average third-name storm is not until August 3rd.

00:48So if we see something developing off the Atlantic,

00:50we are going to be well, well ahead of schedule.

00:53Yeah, let's take a look at that, Alex.

00:54It's always difficult this time of the year

00:56because you get the development of what we call homegrown development.

01:00Now, this is an area that you and the Long Range team highlighted

01:04way back last week to watch this area.

01:08And you could see some clusters of storms,

01:10although right now it looks like if there's any organization going on,

01:14it's off the east coast of Florida.

01:16Yeah, this is very typical for this time of the year.

01:18A lot of times we get stalling cold fronts

01:20that come all the way down across the Gulf and off the southeast coast.

01:23They stall, you get a little bit of piece of spin off the end of it,

01:26and then that's how you can get a lot of early season development.

01:29So a lot of times we talk about homegrown development.

01:31This could be a very classic example of what homegrown development is.

01:35And even though we're early in the hurricane season,

01:38water temperatures, you know, certainly, Alex,

01:40in the Gulf of America and the southwest Atlantic,

01:43they're plenty warm enough.

01:45Plenty warm enough.

01:45We look for about 80 degrees Fahrenheit,

01:47so we're several degrees above that.

01:49So no issue there in terms of the water temperatures.

01:51And, you know, why oftentimes we don't have to worry about the tropical Atlantic

01:55is that we have so much Saharan dust.

01:58And you guys have been talking about the Saharan dust,

02:01and it's made its way pretty far to the west,

02:05even into the Gulf of Mexico right now.

02:07Yeah, the Saharan dust is typically the highest during the months of June and July,

02:11and we're seeing it really come across the Atlantic here.

02:13But it is coming across the southern portion of the Gulf and into Texas right now.

02:18So you can see that little pocket there across the northeastern Gulf and off the southeast coast

02:22where there's little to no dust.

02:25And so that can allow – this is the area that we're concerned about for development.

02:28And so that area could be pretty moist and could allow for some development.

02:32All right.

02:32And you can see how that dust just continues to meander along the western Gulf of America.

02:38All right.

02:39We have this a little separated, Alex.

02:41We decided to do this yesterday that, you know, we've been talking about this elongated area

02:46from the northeast Gulf into the southeast Atlantic.

02:49You guys made the decision yesterday to, well, let's not change the area

02:53but increase the probability for development more so in the southwest Atlantic.

03:00Yeah.

03:00A lot of times the question with these stalling fronts is which side of the peninsula of Florida

03:04is the development going to occur on?

03:06Is it going to occur on the Gulf side or is it going to occur on the Atlantic side?

03:08So right now it looks like it's more favorable for development on the Atlantic side.

03:13So that's why we upped the chances to orange on the Atlantic side.

03:17Nevertheless, though, it looks like it's going to be a rainy pattern across basically all of Florida

03:21and a good portion of the southeast coast.

03:24And as we typically see this time of the year, Alex,

03:26and why it's difficult for tropical development in the tropical Atlantic,

03:32much of the Atlantic is just closed for business.

03:35Yeah, closed for business.

03:36We're looking close to home.

03:37Again, nothing really unusual about this.

03:40A lot of times early in the season we're looking for homegrown development.

03:43You're looking in the Caribbean.

03:44You're looking in the Gulf.

03:45You're looking off the southeast coast.

03:46But I can tell you for certain the rest of the Atlantic,

03:50at least for the next week or so, is closed for business.

03:53All right.

03:53Accu with a lead hurricane expert.

03:55Alex Da Silva breaking it down.

03:57Remember, they issued that area off the southeast coast of the United States

04:02in the northern Gulf last week.

04:04We know what we're doing here.

04:06All right.

04:07Thanks, Alex.

04:08Thanks, Alex.

04:08Let's see.

04:08All right.

04:08Thanks, Alex.

04:09Thanks.

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