00:00All right, outside we go to Nassau, Bahamas. Let's take you into what's been a pretty view this morning.
00:05Beautiful view this morning. Of course, this looked a lot different a couple of days ago here.
00:10All right, I want to bring in AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DeSilva.
00:15And Alex, you know, we talked about this over the last few days.
00:21Aaron, certainly an intense hurricane, but the big story with Aaron, I think the number one part of Aaron
00:29that's been so impressive has been the size as it's pulled northward off the east coast over the last couple of days.
00:36Yeah, it certainly has. It underwent at least two eyewall replacement cycles during its lifetime,
00:41which really helped to expand that wind field. That's what typically happens.
00:45And, you know, just as a comparison for, you know, a lot of people remember Hurricane Sandy.
00:51This storm has a wind field diameter of about 600 miles.
00:55And it's about 80 percent or 80 percent of the storms are actually smaller than this one.
01:00So it's in the 80th percentile, but it's nothing compared to Superstorm Sandy,
01:04which had a wind field of over 1,100 miles.
01:07So Sandy was about double the size of this storm.
01:10So while this storm is big, it pales into comparison with Superstorm Sandy.
01:16All right. Well, we're in the heart of the hurricane season,
01:18and we are tracking a few tropical waves in the Atlantic here this morning, Alex.
01:24Yeah, three tropical waves, one approaching the Lesser Antilles.
01:27We'll get there sometime later on this evening, bringing some rain and wind.
01:30Another tropical wave in the middle of the Atlantic.
01:33It's got about 24 hours to organize.
01:35Otherwise, it's going to get into a harsh environment.
01:37And then that tropical wave coming off of Africa,
01:39we don't really think right now it's got a real good chance of developing.
01:42The tropical wave east of the islands has gotten better organized,
01:47no doubt about that, in the last 24 hours.
01:49Yeah, it certainly has.
01:50A lot more convection firing around where the center of circulation is trying to form.
01:54Overall moving northwest right now.
01:56Should clip the islands sometime later tonight.
01:58But you can see here, you can see a little bit of a blowup of green on the water vapor here,
02:03indicating that the storm is trying to form a little bit of a pocket.
02:05But notice that little feature just northwest of the circled area there.
02:10That upper low is moving out of the way right now.
02:13It's giving it some shear right now.
02:14But I think it's going to be getting into an area where potentially that shear could potentially decrease here.
02:20And so I think it will have a chance to develop once it gets past the islands here.
02:24But it's moving through Erin's wake.
02:26So Erin created a wake behind it where the water temperatures were a little bit cooler.
02:31So it might struggle in the short term.
02:32But as it moves north, I think it has a pretty good potential to develop.
02:36Once again, we're tracking what?
02:38A big dip in the jet stream coming in across the upper Midwest this weekend.
02:43And then by Sunday into Monday, it sets up shop along the east coast.
02:46Yeah, and that's what's going to prevent this from getting to the east coast, we think.
02:49So good news there.
02:50It looks like it's going to be steered out to sea.
02:52All right.
02:53This other wave, it's got, what, about 24 hours or so before it can develop.
02:59Yeah, and then it's going to move into an environment with more dry air.
03:02So we don't think this is going to be a threat to the United States.
03:05How about the end of August, Alex?
03:07It looks like it could quiet down.
03:09So we're tracking these two tropical waves.
03:11But after that, it looks like things could calm down for a week as we head towards the end of August.
03:15But we still need to watch September.
03:18AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex De Silva.
03:20Thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.
03:23Stay with us.
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