Tropics active as more waves emerge from Africa

AccuWeather

AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva was live on the AccuWeather Network on Aug. 21 to discuss Hurricane Erin, as well as the latest around the Atlantic Basin.

Transcript

00:00All right, outside we go to Nassau, Bahamas. Let's take you into what's been a pretty view this morning.

00:05Beautiful view this morning. Of course, this looked a lot different a couple of days ago here.

00:10All right, I want to bring in AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DeSilva.

00:15And Alex, you know, we talked about this over the last few days.

00:21Aaron, certainly an intense hurricane, but the big story with Aaron, I think the number one part of Aaron

00:29that's been so impressive has been the size as it's pulled northward off the east coast over the last couple of days.

00:36Yeah, it certainly has. It underwent at least two eyewall replacement cycles during its lifetime,

00:41which really helped to expand that wind field. That's what typically happens.

00:45And, you know, just as a comparison for, you know, a lot of people remember Hurricane Sandy.

00:51This storm has a wind field diameter of about 600 miles.

00:55And it's about 80 percent or 80 percent of the storms are actually smaller than this one.

01:00So it's in the 80th percentile, but it's nothing compared to Superstorm Sandy,

01:04which had a wind field of over 1,100 miles.

01:07So Sandy was about double the size of this storm.

01:10So while this storm is big, it pales into comparison with Superstorm Sandy.

01:16All right. Well, we're in the heart of the hurricane season,

01:18and we are tracking a few tropical waves in the Atlantic here this morning, Alex.

01:24Yeah, three tropical waves, one approaching the Lesser Antilles.

01:27We'll get there sometime later on this evening, bringing some rain and wind.

01:30Another tropical wave in the middle of the Atlantic.

01:33It's got about 24 hours to organize.

01:35Otherwise, it's going to get into a harsh environment.

01:37And then that tropical wave coming off of Africa,

01:39we don't really think right now it's got a real good chance of developing.

01:42The tropical wave east of the islands has gotten better organized,

01:47no doubt about that, in the last 24 hours.

01:49Yeah, it certainly has.

01:50A lot more convection firing around where the center of circulation is trying to form.

01:54Overall moving northwest right now.

01:56Should clip the islands sometime later tonight.

01:58But you can see here, you can see a little bit of a blowup of green on the water vapor here,

02:03indicating that the storm is trying to form a little bit of a pocket.

02:05But notice that little feature just northwest of the circled area there.

02:10That upper low is moving out of the way right now.

02:13It's giving it some shear right now.

02:14But I think it's going to be getting into an area where potentially that shear could potentially decrease here.

02:20And so I think it will have a chance to develop once it gets past the islands here.

02:24But it's moving through Erin's wake.

02:26So Erin created a wake behind it where the water temperatures were a little bit cooler.

02:31So it might struggle in the short term.

02:32But as it moves north, I think it has a pretty good potential to develop.

02:36Once again, we're tracking what?

02:38A big dip in the jet stream coming in across the upper Midwest this weekend.

02:43And then by Sunday into Monday, it sets up shop along the east coast.

02:46Yeah, and that's what's going to prevent this from getting to the east coast, we think.

02:49So good news there.

02:50It looks like it's going to be steered out to sea.

02:52All right.

02:53This other wave, it's got, what, about 24 hours or so before it can develop.

02:59Yeah, and then it's going to move into an environment with more dry air.

03:02So we don't think this is going to be a threat to the United States.

03:05How about the end of August, Alex?

03:07It looks like it could quiet down.

03:09So we're tracking these two tropical waves.

03:11But after that, it looks like things could calm down for a week as we head towards the end of August.

03:15But we still need to watch September.

03:18AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex De Silva.

03:20Thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.

03:23Stay with us.

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