00:00 Hi there, welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend for the rest of 2023 and the first week
00:06 or so of 2024. First of all, let's set the scene. This is how it's looking as we begin
00:12 Thursday and what you'll notice is a marked temperature contrast across parts of Europe,
00:17 relatively mild air to the south, relatively cold air to the north, nothing unusual about
00:22 that. But the U.K. is on the boundary between that mild and cold air and it will continue
00:28 to be that way for the next 10 days or so. That's the prevailing theme through this
00:33 forecast. Of course, where that boundary exists, we've also got the jet stream. The jet stream
00:39 pushing Storm Gerrit away over the next few days. It's still nearby on Thursday but it's
00:44 weakening. And so still a blustery day but not as windy as Wednesday. That breeze coming
00:51 from the west or southwest across much of the U.K. but still a northerly influence into
00:55 Scotland. That's where the cold air is. That's where there will continue to be some hill
00:58 snow, rain at lower levels and really it's a showery picture for many of us on Thursday
01:04 afternoon. Some longer spells of rain where we've got some old occluded fronts moving
01:07 through northern Scotland and later in the day for parts of south and south-east England,
01:13 some heavy rain moving through here. Gusty winds, 50 mph wind gusts in places but as
01:18 I mentioned, not as windy as Wednesday. In between the rain and showers, some brighter
01:22 spells mild in the south, colder for Scotland. Then into Thursday night, the rain and showers
01:29 in the south tend to ease. They become restricted to western coast. We'll continue to see outbreaks
01:34 of rain and showers for northern England, northern Ireland and for much of Scotland,
01:39 again with some hill snow and a touch of frost where there is some shelter from the wind
01:43 in Scotland but enough of a breeze elsewhere so that we start off Friday frost free, albeit
01:50 still with some sunny spells for the Midlands, East Anglia, the south as well as north-east
01:55 England but we've got this occluded front moving through northern Ireland and northern
01:59 England through the day on Friday. That will bring some longer spells of rain, some large
02:03 rainfall accumulations building up across Scotland as well as northern England over
02:07 the hills primarily and as that system moves south, there will be some showers for Wales,
02:13 for the south and south-west of England as well as continued showers for northern Scotland.
02:18 Again, some hill snow associated with this with rain at lower levels. Feeling cold across
02:24 Scotland and actually for northern Ireland and northern England, temperatures of 6-8
02:28 Celsius, a bit colder than recent days. Still in the double figures in the south on Friday
02:33 but not quite as mild as it has been, not quite as windy either and a greater chance
02:38 of some sunshine coming through. So a fairer day compared with recent days but watch out
02:43 for those showers. Now, Storm Gerrit is moving away by this stage but another low is forming
02:49 out in the Atlantic, again picked up by a powerful jet stream and deepening rapidly
02:55 as it approaches Ireland and the UK during Friday night and into Saturday. You can see
03:02 increasing isobars into the centre of that low so a deepening feature. It finishes its
03:07 deepening phase before it reaches the UK and Ireland but nevertheless, it is going to be
03:13 a powerful system and it's likely to bring the strongest winds to Ireland. So these are
03:18 the wind gusts expected as we start off Saturday and as you can see, exceeding 70mph for Ireland
03:24 but exceeding 60mph across parts of western Scotland, Irish sea coast for example. So
03:30 blustery start to the weekend. Strong winds, gales in places especially in the west early
03:36 on and then increasingly across the south coast and then eventually northern Scotland
03:40 by the end of Saturday. So that will need watching and it will also bring some heavy
03:45 rain. Similar areas affected by the heavy rain on Saturday compared with Storm Gerrit.
03:51 Here it is running through again on Saturday 1am this starts off and what you can see is
03:56 that this system brings some milder air in but it bumps into colder air in place across
04:02 the UK. So the recipe there once again for some substantial snow over northern hills
04:08 predominantly. It will be over hills and it's going to be rain at lower levels but nevertheless
04:15 for the Pennines initially, perhaps first thing for the Welsh mountains as well before
04:19 the milder air arrives and then during the morning on Saturday for the Pennines before
04:24 again the milder air replaces the colder air and it turns to rain but across Scotland certainly
04:29 over the southern uplands and then into the Highlands and Grampians, some very significant
04:33 snow building up through Saturday 20cm plus over the tops of the mountains. So once again
04:40 some treacherous conditions with the wind, rain and hill snow to contend with on Saturday,
04:46 a tricky day for travelling in many places certainly. And it's going to be again marked
04:52 temperature contrasts across the UK. So double figures in the south albeit with that strong
04:57 wind and the rain it's not going to feel very mild and then further north we're in the mid
05:02 single figures, lower than that over upland parts where it's snowing through the day.
05:07 But into the rest of the weekend really that low pressure does gradually fill. It remains
05:13 close to the UK so that on New Year's Eve, well this is how it's looking, that low pressure
05:19 centred somewhere over northern parts of the UK and it's going to continue to bring unsettled
05:27 conditions. Now the more persistent spells of rain will be mostly affecting the northern
05:31 isles at this stage, that's where these weather fronts will be lingering. Elsewhere it's generally
05:36 showery stuff, still a blustery breeze but really if you've got plans on New Year's Eve
05:42 whether it's during the daytime or into the evening expect showers. The showers will predominantly
05:48 affect northern and western parts of the UK but there will be some clearer spells in between
05:53 and the showers will be carried through on a blustery wind as well but the wind won't
05:57 be quite as strong as Saturday. However, by this stage there are differences emerging
06:04 in the computer models. Now the differences relate to the position of this area of low
06:08 pressure, whether it's centred over northern parts of the UK as per this example or whether
06:14 it's pushed further east more quickly and if it does on New Year's Eve push further
06:19 east into the North Sea more quickly we get colder air arriving on the western flank of
06:24 that low and there's a greater chance that those showers will be falling as snow, mostly
06:29 over northern hills but the potential if we get enough colder air that we'll see some
06:33 of those snow showers coming down to lower levels. That's the less preferred solution,
06:37 this is the more likely scenario on New Year's Eve, the low pressure centred over northern
06:41 parts of the UK bringing clear spells and showers. But those differences amplify as
06:48 we start off 2024 and this is as the clock strikes midnight on New Year's Eve night going
06:55 into New Year's Day and we don't just run the computer model once, we run it many times.
07:00 This is the output from the Met Office Ensemble computer model runs and it shows 17 different
07:07 ideas for where that low pressure will be but broadly there are two camps, one camp
07:12 showing the low pressure centred over northern parts of the UK, so showery yes but not particularly
07:18 cold, another camp showing the low pressure in the North Sea with more of a northerly
07:22 feed and roughly those two camps are equal but one is slightly more likely than the other
07:31 and that is that as we begin 2024, so on Monday and Tuesday we'll see low pressure somewhere
07:37 over northern parts of the UK, a dip in the jet stream, 60% probability that it will be
07:42 showery. It dispersed by brighter spells yes but showery and most of those showers will
07:47 be falling as rain but of course there will be some hill snow over Scotland and perhaps
07:51 the Pennines as well. That's slightly more likely than the other scenario for Monday
07:57 and Tuesday which has the low pressure in the North Sea and more of a northerly airflow
08:02 and in this scenario we'd certainly see some hill snow falling with these showers especially
08:07 across northern and northeastern parts of the UK. We could even see some snow down to
08:11 lower levels in the northeast if we get enough cold air coming around the back of that low
08:16 pressure and an even smaller chance and this is showing up in a minority of computer model
08:22 output that another area of low pressure will move up from the southwest with that cold
08:27 air in place bringing outbreaks of rain but turning to snow across the south and southwest
08:34 during the first couple of days of 2024. But that really is a low probability, less than
08:41 40% say 10-20% chance. So the most likely is that it will be business as usual with
08:46 low pressure close to the north, rain showers for many dispersed by bright spells, slightly
08:52 lower chance that it will be colder with some hill snow or snow to lower levels in the north
08:56 and northeast and an even lower probability that there will be something wintry turning
08:59 up towards the south and southwest. These differences in the computer models are unlikely
09:04 to be resolved for a couple of days or so because they're to do with how amplified the
09:08 jet stream becomes later this week. Of course, we'll keep it dated right here at the Met
09:14 office. Beyond that, what happens? Well, similar weather patterns prevail for the rest of next
09:20 week. That is we'll continue to see the U.K. sitting on that mild cold boundary with the
09:26 jet stream somewhere in between and the jet stream continuing to bring us areas of low
09:31 pressure. Sometimes those low pressure systems will bring us wet and windy weather and milder
09:35 conditions to the south, for example, in this weather pattern here. And other times those
09:40 low pressure systems will move through and we'll get colder northerly winds with some
09:44 wintry showers mostly across northern parts of the U.K., especially over hills. So there'll
09:51 be this continued oscillation with the U.K. sitting on the mild cold boundary and low
09:55 pressure moving through. Will low pressure continue to dominate for the first few weeks
10:01 of 2024? That's the big question because, of course, it has been so dominant during
10:06 the last few weeks and months. Well, this would suggest not. Now, this shows the most
10:11 likely weather patterns, colour coded up for each day going out to the next couple of weeks
10:16 or so. Roughly speaking, the blues indicate weather patterns where low pressure is close
10:22 to the U.K. whereas the reds and oranges indicate higher pressure, more influential on the U.K.'s
10:28 weather. And this would suggest from the output from the Met Office model, the European model
10:33 and the American model, that higher pressure becomes more likely later next week and into
10:39 the second week of January. That would lead to a greater chance of drier and possibly
10:46 colder weather developing. But, of course, that's a long way off. And how cold it would
10:51 be, whether it would just be frost or snow and ice that we're talking about, would entirely
10:57 depend on the position of any high pressure that was influencing the U.K.'s weather at
11:01 the time. And we'll have more detail on that in the next few days and weeks. Make sure
11:06 you subscribe to YouTube, make it a New Year's resolution so that you never miss one of these
11:12 updates. Bye-bye.
11:13 [BLANK_AUDIO]
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