00:00Hello, heavy rain, sunshine, frost and snow. We've got a bit of everything to come in this week's weather, but
00:07it has been quite a cold start to the week and we'll see more of those frosty starts through the
00:12rest of this week, Tuesday being no exception. A ridge of high pressure builds in overnight on Monday night to
00:18kill away any of those showers that you may have seen through Monday.
00:21And we'll make for a chilly and icy start for some of us. Some ice warnings in force for many
00:26northern areas of the UK, but it's going to be a pretty dry day actually on Tuesday. A sunny one
00:31too, particularly for more northern areas. A few showers affecting eastern coasts of England and across the south and west,
00:37the sunshine will turn milkier and hazier into the afternoon as this band of rain approaches, moving into parts of
00:44Cornwall to end the day.
00:46But ahead of that, as I said, a fairly bright day. It's going to be a chilly one though. A
00:50cold northerly wind will make it feel colder than it actually is, particularly across eastern coasts as well.
00:57Now Tuesday into Wednesday, we see an area of low pressure approach from the Atlantic. It doesn't move actually that
01:03close to the UK, but it does extend this weather front into more southwestern areas and they don't make much
01:09progress actually through Wednesday.
01:11Actually, we've still got a ridge of high pressure across more northern areas and an onshore wind. So a lot
01:16of cloud around actually through Wednesday, much cloudier day than Tuesday and rain moving into the south and west slowly,
01:23but surely it's not going to be that heavy at first.
01:25Many northern areas actually getting away with a pretty dry day, more sunshine into the afternoon for parts of the
01:31north and east. Still a chilly wind though.
01:33The wind's starting to strengthen as well down into the southwest. That's as this area of low pressure starts to
01:39arrive into the south of the UK.
01:42Now there's some uncertainty in the details of this area of low pressure and its development, but those do have
01:48knock-on effects as to whether we've got a risk of heavy rain or snowfall across southern areas of the
01:54UK.
01:54So the most likely scenario is for an area of low pressure to split off from this larger area of
02:00low pressure out to the west of Ireland and then move across through the English Channel through Wednesday evening and
02:07into Thursday.
02:08And on the northern edge of this area of low pressure across some southern areas of Britain, as we get
02:13colder air mixing in with this area of low pressure, there is a risk of snow to above around 100
02:19metres across southern areas.
02:21Now as it's a couple of days away, there's still some uncertainty with exactly the shape of this area of
02:26low pressure and the position of it.
02:28It could be around 50 miles further north. Now that doesn't sound like much, but as we've got this cold
02:33undercut, those northeasterly winds, that does mean it will change where we see the risk of snowfall.
02:40So we've got a couple of scenarios. Now the most likely scenario, as I said, is this one here, is
02:45the area of low pressure moving through the English Channel or thereabouts.
02:48And that would bring a snow risk to parts of South Wales, southern areas of England, and heavy rain to
02:55parts of the southwest and the very far south coast elsewhere across England.
03:01Now snows most likely above 100 metres, the highest ground, seeing the heaviest snowfall, the highest accumulations, parts of the
03:09Brecon Beacons, the moors in the southwest.
03:11Most likely to see those high accumulations, but we could see some slushy accumulations to lower levels too.
03:16And it is going to be a cold night on Wednesday night, so there's likely to be quite a lot
03:20of ice around to start the day on Thursday.
03:24Now there's also a chance, it's a less likely chance, but there is a chance that this area of low
03:28pressure moves slightly further north, as I said, 50 miles or so.
03:31And that would mean that snow risk actually moves further north into parts of North Wales, the Midlands, as well
03:37as Northern Ireland.
03:39And many southern areas of the UK would just see heavy rain, potentially some quite significant heavy rain.
03:45There's also a risk of some quite strong winds around this area of low pressure.
03:49So potentially some disruption to come Wednesday night into Thursday, but there's some uncertainty in the details.
03:56This is the most likely scenario for now, but we'll be keeping you up to date over the next 24
04:01hours or so.
04:02Once that low pressure system, though, does develop, it will push into parts of Europe into Thursday.
04:08And high pressure is actually dominating for many northern areas all the while.
04:11So plenty of dry weather to come on Thursday across the north and into the afternoon further south.
04:17So any snow that does fall will likely melt through Thursday afternoon once the sun comes out.
04:23But it is going to be still a relatively chilly day on Thursday.
04:27And in fact, daytime temperatures all week will be below average.
04:31These are the Thursday maximum temperatures compared to average for the time of year.
04:35We're moving towards the end of February as well.
04:38So you'd expect these temperatures to be starting to rise.
04:40So it's going to be a relatively chilly week.
04:42We're about three to five degrees below average.
04:45That will change, though, as we head into the weekend as low pressure systems are moving in from the Atlantic.
04:51We get more Atlantic air moving in for Friday and into the weekend.
04:57So that means it will turn milder.
04:58But it also means it's going to be wetter and windier more widely, particularly across western areas through Friday.
05:06Risk of some quite heavy rain, some strong southwesterly winds.
05:10The south and east seeing the best of the shelter from this weather, particularly through the morning.
05:14But temperatures up a couple of degrees on Friday, much closer to average 10 or 11 degrees to end the
05:20week.
05:21And that mild theme continues into the weekend.
05:24A markedly milder couple of days to come, actually, Saturday and into Sunday.
05:28But again, a risk of some further wet and windy weather as well.
05:33So quite a few changes throughout this week.
05:35As I said, a potential risk of snow across southern areas on Wednesday.
05:39Please stay tuned for the details on that over the next few days.
05:42And you can do that by subscribing to our YouTube channel.
05:45Have a good evening.
05:46Bye bye.
05:46Bye bye.
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