- 6 weeks ago
- #considerthis
Negeri Sembilan will soon go to the polls in a contest that could reveal the strength, and the limits, of new political partnerships. Will this state election test the relationship between Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan, who are allies in Putrajaya but rivals on the ground? And what of the rekindled friendship now blooming between BN and Perikatan Nasional? On this episode of #ConsiderThis Melisa Idris speaks with Dr Ong Kian Ming, Adjunct Professor at Taylor’s University and former Deputy Minister of MITI.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:19Hi, welcome back to Consider This. I'm Melissa Idris. Let's continue our discussion about the
00:23upcoming polls in Negris, Milan. Joining me on the line now, I have Dr. Onkian Ming,
00:28who is an adjunct professor at Taylor's University, also former Deputy Minister of MITI.
00:33Kerming, thank you so much for joining me today. Before we get into Negeri, Milan,
00:37do you mind if we take a look back at Johor? You've recently argued that Pakatan Harapan
00:43and DAP leaders specifically are in denial about some of the performance in Johor. Can we talk
00:52about that? What is it that you think are some of the biggest lessons that they have not yet absorbed?
00:59Yeah, I think when I read the statements of some of the DAP leaders straight after the polls,
01:05I found that there was a lack of acknowledgement that number one,
01:09you know, the Malay vote for Pakatan Harapan in Johor had basically collapsed
01:14to my best guess would be less than 10%. And then the other thing would be to blame other factors
01:23other than what Pakatan Harapan and DAP did and also failed to do. Other factors like, for example,
01:30the vote for Perikatan National going to Barisan National without actually explaining why some of
01:37that vote didn't flow to Pakatan Harapan. And then, of course, I think Tony Pua also in his Facebook post
01:44sort of blame Bersatu for spoiling some of the outcomes of certain seats. And I think that's just
01:52not really looking at the underlying causes that caused Pakatan Harapan the big damage and then big
02:00sort of like defeat that it faced in Johor. Okay, so when you look at Negeri Semilan then, what would
02:07be your
02:07baseline assessment of the race there today? I think Negeri would be much closer compared to Johor. I
02:27think it doesn't have a very strong record that it can boast about. And then also, I think you have
02:33a
02:33situation where the, you know, ex-co including those from UMNO in the past three years have not necessarily
02:42distinguished themselves in the same way as some of the ex-co in Johor had under Barisan National.
02:48So, and then on the flip side, I think PH does have some advantages. I think the Tuk Min who
02:55is the
02:55outgoing and, you know, presumably when you were a candidate in the state, somebody that is, I think,
03:03generally well liked, although not as charismatic as own Hafiz. And, you know, I think the challenge of,
03:10let's say, not being able to provide a manifesto or a development narrative on Negeri Sembilan that was
03:17absent in Johor on the part of Paket Harapan. That, I think, will be addressed because, you know,
03:23at the time of recording, I expect the Paket Harapan to reveal their manifesto for Negeri Sembilan tomorrow.
03:29And we're not quite sure whether Barisan National has a similar, you know, strategy for its vision of
03:35what it wants Negeri Sembilan to look like under whoever their Menteri Besar designate is.
03:40Okay, right. So, since you brought up Tuk Min, let's talk about the caretaker, Menteri Besar,
03:46Aminuddin Harun. When you see that he is contesting in Lingyi, which is an UMNO fortress,
03:55how are you reading this? This is clearly going to be an uphill battle for him. What's your read,
04:00Ken Ming, of why he's contesting in such a difficult seat?
04:05I think when Tuk Min announced he was changing seats from Sikamat to Lingyi, the narrative was that he
04:12is going to an UMNO seat, where UMNO is strong, so it will be an uphill task. But what many
04:18people
04:18don't realize is that Lingyi is a, sorry, Sikamat is a 70% Malay seat in the constituency of Seremban,
04:28versus Lingyi, which is in a, which is a 60% Malay seat in a constituency called Podiksen, where he
04:36is
04:36the member of parliament. So, you know, he's actually going to a seat that may be a bit easier
04:43for him to win compared to his former seat of Sikamat. But it's still going to be an uphill battle
04:49because of the fact that the Malay vote, I think, will likely consolidate behind Barisan National
04:55and Perikatan National. And I think this will be one of the biggest tests for Pakatan Harapan
05:00in Negeri Sembilan. Because if Tuk Min can't win his 60% Malay majority seat in a parliamentary
05:06constituency where he is the MP, you know, as well as being the former Menteri Besar, I think it is
05:13very, very bleak for Pakatan Harapan in terms of their chances of being able to retain the Negeri Sembilan
05:21state government. Do you see any parallels between this, the contest at Lingyi with the
05:28previous time that the Prime Minister contested in Tambut?
05:34I think it's a bit different because in a general election setting,
05:38you have a lot more sort of like attention being paid across the nation. Turnout differentials
05:45between the Malay and the non-Malay voters are generally less.
05:49And then you don't have the focus of the machinery fighting in very specific locations with a
05:55narrative that generally speaking has been in the past more favorable to Barisan National.
06:01You know, in a place where in Negeri Sembilan, even though PH has been in power for two terms,
06:08I think the machinery of Barisan National, specifically UMNO, is still very strong.
06:13And then you can see how, for example, UMNO has committed to send a lot of its support from
06:20other states to help campaign. So not only do you have the prospects of a blue wave, you also have
06:27the
06:27prospects of a blue plus a green wave coming in Negeri Sembilan. And my fear is, you know, my party,
06:36especially DAP would resort to very tried and tested, which may not work this time, methods of
06:42trying to appeal largely to the Chinese community. And I think we saw that backfiring in certain ways
06:49in Johor. And I think one of the challenges that Anthony Lok faces is to be able to control some
06:57of
06:57these urges among some of the DAP leaders, including those who will be going on to the
07:01drama circuit, especially in the second week of the campaign when things get hit up.
07:07Well, what can you elaborate, Kiamin? What do you mean? What concerns do you have about these
07:11tried and tested ways?
07:14Yeah. So when we saw, when, what happened in Johor in the second week of the campaign was that
07:20DAP felt a bit threatened because the first week of campaign, from what I heard from the ground,
07:26uh, you know, response among the non-Malay voters, especially the Chinese voters were very lukewarm.
07:31So they needed to sort of like, um, ramp up the rhetoric and to get the Chinese voters excited to
07:36come back to vote and to come out to vote. Uh, and that, uh, you know, the, they felt that
07:41they
07:41needed to have, uh, you know, very powerful speakers in the drama circuit. Uh, and, and, uh,
07:47I think the two people that featured prominently were Nga Koming, the, uh, you know, housing, uh,
07:52minister, uh, who's well known for his fiery rhetoric, uh, and then the emergence of Superman,
07:57Hugh Kuan Yew, who, you know, has not really been in the public limelight, uh, for some time.
08:03He quit the DAP, uh, because of a backlash over what he said before in the past, uh, trauma circuits.
08:08But now, uh, you know, he feels, uh, you know, he's posting a lot more on Facebook.
08:12I monitor it quite closely. And I think he, he would feel, uh, it, as a burden to himself to
08:19want to
08:19campaign for DAP for the Chinese votes. Uh, and I think the question that DAP faces now is to what
08:25extent, uh, do you want to mobilize these two leaders that can also be very polarizing among the
08:32Malay electorate, right? Now, these days you can't just campaign in the Chinese electorate, uh, and then
08:37not expect your, uh, statements or your speech to be covered in, uh, the press. Uh, and some of these
08:46dramas are also live streamed, right? So a lot of people outside there, uh, you know, are watching
08:51and looking, and there may be a lot of BN and PN cyber troopers who are just waiting for somebody
08:55to say something wrong, which can be easily translated or subtitled into short video clips
09:00that can be viral among the Malay community. Okay. Uh, so, so talk to me about that.
09:05Who stands to gain with this? You mentioned the blue wave, um, and we saw that in Johor, but
09:11in Negeri Sembilan, how much of it is it about DAP losing ground with their traditional voter base
09:20versus a story of maybe MIC or MCA gaining ground, uh, regaining support and factoring all of this is the,
09:29uh, budding friendship between Perikatan National and Barisan National.
09:35Yeah. Uh, just for, for, you know, uh, disclaimer, uh, I'm wearing a KL standard chartered marathon
09:40that happens to be blue color. I'm not campaigning for, uh, you know, the blue wave or anything like
09:45that. Some, some people seem to think that I am going to join a political party in the blue corner.
09:51Uh, that that's, that's, that's not, not the case. Uh, but yeah, I think it's not just the blue wave,
09:57but also the green wave, uh, combining together the blue wave. And I think, uh, you know, one needs to
10:03question as question, why is it that the Malay unity narrative, uh, can be so powerful at this
10:09time? Uh, and also, uh, what has led to this conclusion and whether it could have been avoided
10:14on the part of Pakatan Haram, but, uh, probably no questions to be addressed now, maybe after the
10:19state elections or even after the next general election. Uh, but this is a phenomenon that, that is
10:24coming very, uh, you know, sure. Uh, it's, it's not even slow. It's, uh, coming, you know, uh, and, uh,
10:30it's, it's something powerful, not just for the state elections, but, uh, for the federal elections
10:35as well. And, uh, and I know my party leaders in the DAP and some of the, the machinery very
10:41well.
10:41Uh, once this blue and green wave comes, uh, you know, the, the politics of campaigning based on fear,
10:49meaning, uh, you know, saying that, uh, you know, past is going to come in to change the way that
10:55non-Muslims live, uh, you know, that kind of narrative of fear will be the instinct that many of
11:00my party, uh, some of my party leaders will have. And that may be something that they exhibit in the
11:05drama circuit as well. Uh, but the more this kind of politics of fear is played out on one side,
11:10the other side can play the same kind of politics as well. And because Negeri Sembilan, you know,
11:15and, and in fact, all the other, uh, states with the exception of Penang, all are Malay majority, uh, states,
11:22right. So you, you, you play that battle, you lose the, you lose the electoral battle. Uh, and, and I
11:27think that is something that maybe at this point in time, it may even be an inevitability. Right. And
11:33very quickly in just in the next couple of weeks, what are you going to be watching out closely for
11:37Ken Ming as the campaign unfolds? I'm watching to see, uh, firstly, to what extent Tok Min and, uh, PKR
11:45takes the lead in this campaign process. Uh, because again, uh, my concern is that if let's say
11:52the voters, especially the Malay voters sees Anthony Lok as the key spokesperson for Pakatan Harapan
11:57in Negeri Sembilan rather than Tok Min, uh, then the whole narrative about DAP controlling the state
12:02government, controlling Negeri Sembilan will be played out by the other side. Uh, that's one. Uh,
12:08second thing is, uh, to what extent BN is able to come up with their own narrative, uh, in a
12:13state where
12:13they are not the incumbent, uh, of how they want to govern, uh, and lead the state, uh, and link
12:18closely to this would be, uh, the issue of who is their Menteri Besar, uh, candidate. I think, uh,
12:23these would be the, the two things. And then on, uh, the, the final thing would be the trauma circuit
12:28next week. Uh, what kind of, uh, messages comes from those trauma circuits, uh, and whether or not
12:34Anthony would, uh, feel the need to, again, mobilize supporters, including those outstation supporters
12:40to come back to vote using, uh, people like, uh, you know, Nga Kao Ming or Hugh Kuan Yao as,
12:45uh,
12:45the key speakers. Right. Kian Ming, thank you so much for speaking with me today. That was
12:49Dr. On Kian Ming, adjunct professor at Taylor's University, former MITI deputy minister, wrapping
12:53up this episode of Consider This. I'm Melissa Idris, signing off for the evening. Thank you so much for
12:58watching. Good night.
Comments