00:10Hello and good evening. I'm Melissa Idris. Welcome to Consider This. This is the show
00:14where we want you to consider and then we consider what you know of the news of the day.
00:18The Yuna Griswilan state election may be over but its political implications are only beginning
00:24to unfold. Barisan National and Berikata National emerged victorious in Negeri Smilan with a
00:31commanding two-thirds majority. Analysts say the results point to further consolidation of the
00:37Malay vote and raises fresh questions about the evolving political landscape heading into GE16.
00:44So what lessons should political leaders take from the outcome of Negeri Smilan? Well joining me now
00:50on the line is Dr. Azmil Muhammad Dayip who is an associate professor at USM's School of Social
00:55Sciences. Azmil, it's good to have you back on the show. Now for you were the results in Negeri Smilan
01:02expected? I'm curious to know if there was anything that surprised you not just during the results but
01:08also during the campaign and how it unfolded. Thanks for having me on again Melissa. I think
01:17the results of the Negeri Smilan election doesn't come as a surprise for people who's been watching
01:27how things have been unfolding in the weeks or even months leading up to the election.
01:35People already see the signs on the wall so to speak in Sabah and in Johor and realize that this
01:46is not
01:47merely a provincial or regional trend right so this is a trend that actually is a national trend if I
01:59may say so.
02:00So I think the and so what's happening in Negeri Smilan is perhaps you know it's a continuation of what
02:09we
02:10have seen in Sabah and in in in Johor and perhaps maybe later in in Melaka as well. So
02:18so it's I think it's what what what has happened is that it's not people been predicting it's gonna
02:28um PH is going to be taking a a loss but so it's not a matter of of how how
02:36much of a loss but
02:38um how big is the loss it's you know that we can see from the results that is quite substantial.
02:45Right what do you think explains it?
02:48Um I think there is um there's a lot of um uh dissatisfaction I think you know we're just talking
02:56um about the the the PH side right so uh we can see that in in Johor we can see
03:03that in Negeri Smilan
03:05um that people are unhappy PH supporters I think they're unhappy with what PH has accomplished in in the past
03:15uh three and a half years um there's a lot of unmet expectations um
03:22um especially when it comes to implementing reforms when it comes to um you know just uh reining in the
03:35um the excesses of UMNO maybe there's another I think there's another um issue because they feel that um you
03:44know the especially for non-Malays right they feel that their their their rights are not being protected
03:51um in particularly by DAP um that that holds the largest number of seats in the parliament but but does
04:00not reflect in the way that they act you know uh when uh when they're in the government right so
04:06so there's the this unmet expectation um and un unfulfilled promises
04:14right right as well so do you think the the federal story overpowered the state story because the Pakatan Harapan
04:22campaign in Negeri Smilan specifically focused a lot on the governance performance at the state level of the Menteri Bersa
04:30and I have to say that that narrative of the campaign received some uh lackluster reception by voters
04:38was this um was this um a mismatch of narratives uh or a lack of understanding on PH's side about
04:45what voters really want what voters resonate with
04:48it certainly is um because you can see this in Johor and you can see this in Negeri Smilan um
04:55when PH um has been campaigning on on national issues on his um accomplishment at the national level
05:03and even in Negeri Smilan as well the actually PH um changed tack and and actually um do campaign on
05:11the accomplishment of the state government right the chief minister um you know what what he has done and you
05:20know I mean I mean which is actually in in PH defense is actually he's actually um accomplished um quite
05:27a bit right so um but the problem I think is is just uh
05:33that the people are the people are so consumed by by the national issues by by you know what's going
05:39on at the national level uh that they they kind of lose sight on on what's going on at the
05:45state level or at least it matters less to them than what what what what what's happened than what is
05:51happening at the national level
05:52so I think that's what the national level so I think that's what we're seeing in Johor where the the
05:55national issues completely dominate the uh and not dominate but I say like the the strategy used by PH
06:03I think you know um focusing on national national issues um didn't didn't gain traction at all in Johor and
06:13and now they change that right
06:15so so but what what what is the alternative because the alternative is to play on identity politics which I
06:22maybe PH took the high road so how do we think about that about the balance what what resonates with
06:27voters versus what is a a populist narrative or one that is actually harmful to to unity
06:36ут yeah I think the the the identity Delhi's perception especially amongst the the non-Malays in the past uh
06:43three and a half years data uh the the PH
06:47government the PH especially uh and particularly the prime minister has been bending over backwards to appease the the conservative
06:57Malay voters
06:59to get their votes because that's the the weakness of ph right um the malay voters we can see in
07:06the
07:06in the last general election they get on like about like 15 of the the malay votes so 85 percent
07:13actually went to the other malay parties so so i think that there's this this this conscious effort
07:20to to get some of the malay votes you know to to ph so so you know and then of
07:27course this is done
07:27at the expense of the non-malays um you know we can see some of the um issues you know
07:34these um
07:36religious and you know uh ethnic driven issues you know like the the temples the hindu temples the
07:44uh a lot of things that there seems to to to flare up every other month um so this is
07:50seen and then
07:51it always comes at the expense of the the minorities um and they see that the government is not doing
07:57enough um in this case so i i think so this is definitely you know it it fits into the
08:05uh you
08:06know the the ethno-religious policies that we're seeing now you know the but i think it's also the
08:14you know people are not seeing the you know it the it doesn't really trickle down to the to the
08:22look to
08:22the to the everyday you know um live experience of people like um those economic accomplishment and
08:30things like that that the government has been touting um state level or the national level you know people
08:36don't see that much change in their daily lives i think or maybe the government is not doing uh good
08:42enough job to sell their accomplishments to to to the public so i think that there is a host of
08:49issues
08:50here you know but yeah okay what scenarios then do you see for the impact at the federal level i'm
08:57just
08:57wondering for prime minister anu ibrahim what would be the i guess the biggest political warning coming
09:04out from the negris milan results i think you know because we can see how how polarized it is right
09:10right right now um because you know the 11 seats won by ph they're all non non non malay majority
09:18seats
09:19right um and then the rest are even like um like non malay majority seat that's one i think like
09:25rapai if i'm not mistaken also went to bn right so so so i've uh so there's definitely um so
09:35the basically
09:36the the government the ph has its work cut out for them right um uh i think the what it
09:43needs to do
09:43is you know to to fire up the base i think that's the first thing they need to do because
09:49you know if uh if if the the vote the voters turnout is lower than usual then it will come
09:55at
09:56the detriment of ph you know ph can only um do well if there's a high voters turnout uh i
10:03think that
10:03there's there's a there's a there's a the voters water turnout especially among the non-malays is
10:08lower than than usual uh we can see that in johor we can see that in other by elections uh
10:14before
10:14that so i think they really need to to work on firing up their base to galvanize their their
10:21supporters uh to come out to vote in drove uh that means you know fulfilling or at least try to
10:28fulfill
10:28the the the promises you know in their manifesto um to go back on being the the reformers that they
10:37claim to be uh when they're in the opposition so to show um some spine i guess um political will
10:45uh
10:46which is which is um severely lacking in the past three and a half years um so they they've seen
10:53as
10:53timid as being being you know um second fiddle to um no um no it has disproportionate you know um
11:00power in the government you know as you know compared to number of seats they have in the parliament
11:05so so so these are what what are on people's mind especially the ph supporters right so i mean what's
11:11the point of gaining power when you're not you know you're not willing to use it right so it's not
11:17just
11:18power for power's sake right you need power to to actually do something and then but now you have power
11:22you're not doing anything so so what's the point then of of of of voting you into the office right
11:29so i think that's um that's probably you know what what goes on in people's mind right as well thank
11:36you so much for being on the show with me today dr asma mamad type there from usm school of
11:41social
11:41sciences we're going to take a quick break here on consider this we'll be back with more stay tuned
11:52you
