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The Negeri Sembilan state election may be over but its political implications are only beginning to unfold. Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional emerged victorious in the polls, with a commanding two-thirds majority. Analysts say the results point to a further consolidation of the Malay vote and raise fresh questions about the evolving political landscape heading into GE16. What lessons should political leaders take from this outcome? On this episode of #ConsiderThis Melisa Idris speaks with Dr Tricia Yeoh, Associate Professor of Practice, School of Politics, International Relations & Economics at University of Nottingham Malaysia, where she is also Director of its Asian Institute for Policy and Engagement.
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00:10Hi, welcome back to Consider This. I'm Melissa Idris. Let's continue our discussion about the
00:14results of the Negeri's Milan elections. This is Farisa National and Perikatan National were
00:19able to bag 25 seats for a commanding two-thirds majority. Is this an early indication of where
00:26Malaysian politics is headed next? Well, let's ask Dr Tricia Yeo, who's the Associate Professor
00:31of Practice at the School of Politics, International Relations and Economics at University of Nottingham
00:36Malaysia, where she's also the Director of its Asian Institute for Policy and Engagement.
00:42Tricia, it's good to have you back on the show with me. So I want to know whether you are
00:47seeing
00:47the Negeri's Milan elections. Do you think it's better understood as a vote for BNNPN or is it
00:56a vote against Harapan? What was the kind of biggest political story emerging from the
01:03Negeri's Milan elections for you? All right. Thanks, Melissa, for having me back. It's good
01:07to be here. I believe, specifically to your question, this time the election was more an election
01:15against the Harapan government for many reasons. Number one, I believe that because of the way
01:24the istana and the undang issue was handled and managed, what BNNPN did was to position themselves
01:33as the only coalition that would have been able to resolve the crisis. Whether that's true necessarily
01:40or not, we know that regardless, right? Meaning that there was already sort of a groundswell of unhappiness
01:48towards Pakatan Harapan, despite its very many financial management achievements, increased
01:56investments and so on. And of course, apart from that, the national issues that were affecting voters
02:02too, so national disgruntlement towards the Harapan federal government led by Anwar Ibrahim, whether
02:11it was for different reasons, right? So different ethnic communities would have voted on that national
02:16groundswell of frustration for different reasons and in different ways. But why I don't think this was
02:24directly vote for BNPN, although that Malay unity story is a compelling one, was because they didn't
02:33really have very much time to coalesce around that story. I mean, it actually was only a very loose
02:39arrangement in Johor before that. And then in Negeri Sembilan, that came very late in the day, right?
02:46So it's not as if it was a very long, compelling narrative and overarching story that they had time to
02:53really sell. And apart from that, there were also indications of friction on the ground where,
03:01you know, I think as many as 19 of the operation centers in the constituency of Klawang actually shut
03:08down in protest because they were not happy that the BN candidate was not given the candidacy and
03:14instead this went to the PN candidate, which they saw as just a newcomer. So yeah, I think the BNPN
03:20thing,
03:20it has legs to grow and expand upon. But I think it's still too early to tell whether that BNPN
03:29makes
03:30that method, that formula is actually what's going to allow both coalitions to ride into the federal
03:37election on a victory wave. Right. So talk to me about that. If Johor was too soon, Negeri Sembilan was
03:45also
03:45quite a kind of a litmus test or a testing ground. Then what about the upcoming elections?
03:53Melaka is on the table. If GE 16 is pushed to the end of term, would that give Barisan National
04:01and Perikatan National more time to solidify this partnership? Would it strengthen the case for
04:08making this partnership permanent? Yeah. So for Melaka state election, they will go into the election
04:15with this coalition intact and with the partnership intact. But unfortunately, that doesn't really tell
04:21much of a story because in Melaka, BN is the incumbent anyway. And there was never a doubt that BN
04:28was not
04:28going to lead the state government, you know, just like Johor. Right. So in that sense, I think Johor and
04:34Melaka aren't really like Bellwether state elections. Negeri Sembilan, yes. Okay. So the question is whether
04:40between now and the federal election, so depending on when that is held as well, whether the BN-PN relationship
04:47can be held intact. And the reason for this is because they ultimately vie for the same types of seats.
04:55So in any political coalition, the strength of that unity is all about dependency, right? Like, do you need me
05:01as much as I need you?
05:02So, you know, can you contest in seats where I won't do well in and vice versa, which is why
05:08the original
05:09Barisan national equation works very well for BN for such a very long time, because you could break up
05:15the different ethnic seats according to where they would contest best. The question really is, will
05:20pass be willing to give up seats in states that they are extremely secure in, in Kelantan,
05:29Shrenganu, Perlis and Kedah, in order to gain what they would see as a seat in the federal government.
05:37So it is like, how much do you want to be in federal government in order to give up some
05:42seats to,
05:42by the way, your arch old rival? UMNO and PAS have been rivals for a very, very long time.
05:48There was even, you know, like a sort of religious statement made that if you would vote against
05:55PAS and for UMNO, that would be against what Islam expects of you. I mean, these are historical
06:01things that we cannot forget, right? That some of these things may still run in the blood of PAS.
06:06As for UMNO, I think UMNO is there to gain from this relationship. But again, remember that UMNO and PAS
06:12have had a relationship in the past. After UMNO fell from federal government in 2018, they had the
06:18Mofakat National Coalition, right? And that didn't last very long for other reasons. I mean, now that
06:24you have actual stakes in the game, which is a seat in government, then of course the stakes are higher.
06:30You'd be bargaining harder for it and you'd probably want to stick around as long as possible because
06:37victory, the smell of victory is very sweet, right? So I think for those reasons, I wouldn't say that the
06:43BNPN Coalition is something that will last forever. It will last for some time, yes. And I think it really
06:55is dependent on when the actual federal election is called for. As you indicated, if the federal
07:02election, or rather, if parliament goes the full term, then perhaps PH will have some more time to
07:10think of a new strategy. I mean, I'm not quite sure exactly what the strategy is, but it's certainly
07:15not what it's pursuing right now. And then, you know, time will tell whether BNPN can last.
07:23Okay, well, let's talk about that strategy, Tricia. Let's break it down. Pakatan Harapan's performance.
07:28Let's look at DAP. DAP has really struggled in the last three electoral cycle, last three elections.
07:38How do you think they could adjust? And are they able, is the onus on them to adjust? And how
07:46do we
07:46think about Pakatan Harapan and its trajectory or future trajectory after Johor and Negeri Semelan?
07:54So DAP, of course, is facing what I think is its biggest existential crisis for the longest time.
08:04And it really will have to reflect deeply on its own role within the coalition, particularly
08:14its relationship with PKR, of course.
08:18They were supposedly going to make a decision on the 16th of August whether or not to stay in cabinet.
08:25That's still about two weeks away. I'm not sure if they can wait so long to make that decision.
08:31There will be expectations, I think, even in the next week alone as to what decisions they will make
08:38at this moment. However, if they continue to wait until the 16th of August and if they do decide to
08:44eventually pull out of cabinet while supporting ANWAR, I mean, that's a different question of PH and its
08:53own stability, right? Whether or not then BN pulls out support, whether GPS and GRS also decide to pull support.
09:02And then that's where you have that house of cards falling and ANWAR being pressured to call
09:08for an election given the instability of the government.
09:11But let's say ANWAR still is able to make the coalition government still stand.
09:19So arguing, for instance, for different and differing coalition makeup at the federal and state levels,
09:28which is also very possible. But back to your question about the viability of PH.
09:35So this is actually, I think a lot of attention has been put on DAP. And I think that's always
09:42going to be the case.
09:43DAP, as the SecGen himself has said, has become a bogeyman in Malaysian politics of sorts.
09:50You know, many things are sort of put to DAP as to blame. I do think there are some members
09:59of that
09:59particular party that have to learn how to create a better story for themselves, right?
10:05So they do sometimes shoot themselves in the foot. But my biggest question actually would be as to what's
10:13the relevance and the strategy moving forward for PKR as a party. PKR is meant to be a multi-ethnic
10:20party.
10:21The only two seats that it managed to win in Negri Sembilan are both by representatives that are not Malay.
10:29The Malay support for PKR has plummeted. So, you know, can you actually really call yourself a
10:37multi-racial party in this sense moving forward? And not to mention the various fragmentation
10:43that the PKR party has undergone over the last few years. The fragmentation which has not helped its
10:53cause at all. So PH, yeah, I mean, I've used the word existential already. I really believe that it has
11:02to
11:04change itself. You know, one thing about, not just about the multi-racial issue, I think, you know,
11:09as a party and as a coalition that really stood for the reform question,
11:15even if it was not able to get the majority of the Malay ethnic support, even on the things that
11:21it
11:22tried to stand on, like that grounding itself has shifted. So whether or not it can call itself a
11:27reformist party, I think that, I think, has also been observed by voters to have fallen away.
11:36Right. Well, I mean, this is very concerning because it's the party of the Prime Minister,
11:39right? So what do you think is the political mood? So if Negri Smilan tells us anything,
11:46Trisha, what does it tell us about what the political mood is of the country? There was so
11:53much talk in the campaign or the period leading up to polling day for Negri Smilan about how, you know,
12:00the narrative of good governance just didn't land with voters, that it was identity politics was,
12:06at the end of the day, was what actually had any sway over voters. How do we make sense of
12:14that?
12:14Where are we as a country, would you say, in terms of the political mood?
12:19I know many analysts have painted this election and this trend that we're seeing for BNNPN as
12:29like 100% based on ethnic politics and identity politics alone. I actually beg to differ a little
12:37bit because I don't think it was, I mean, it could partially be identity politics, but I think it's
12:45because, you know, when the races feel insecure and unstable and they're not sure of their footing,
12:51that's what they land on, right? So that's what they land on because it is what the parties of
12:58stability are telling them. I still believe that if there was a party that could give them that kind
13:06of stability without using identity politics, so kind of you're disentangling the notion of stability
13:14with the notion of ethnic politics, then you would still see voters gravitating to that of stability.
13:20I think it's stability that voters are looking for and, unfortunately, PH has not represented that.
13:28So stability means many different things, right? It's stability over, I don't know, policy consistency.
13:34It's about whether they can expect to be able to run their business this way, the same way next month,
13:42next year and always. It's the ability to be certain over certain rules, right?
13:49Are we not going to be changing our rules about exports, about investments?
13:56That's, the details matter. So, like I said, I'm not sure, I'm a bit hesitant to just say, okay,
14:05it was all about identity politics alone and that's it. Because the large bulk of voters of Malaysia,
14:12I don't see them as clinging or adhering to a highly conservative sort of religious politics that
14:23some are arguing Malaysia is shifting towards. Yes, Malaysian electorate is moving to the right,
14:29but we cannot confuse that to mean that everyone who voted for BNNPN wants a religious state.
14:39Right. So we have to be careful, I think, about these nuances. What does the stability
14:47narrative mean? People want that. And like I said, PH has not been able to really sell themselves as
14:53that government. I mean, to be fair, it also didn't have that much of time, right? It's not even been
14:59one
15:00full term of this particular Madani government. And there have been many factors that have
15:07definitely contributed to the inability of Anwar Ibrahim as a PH, PKR prime minister to do that.
15:15It's been a coalition government. He still operates under the guise of a constitutional monarchy.
15:20There are pressures that come from that side as well. So I mean, let's try to break it down,
15:27right? There are more nuances here. But I think I want to say that to your listeners tonight, right?
15:33That let's unpack a little bit about what this stability story means. And if BNN represents stability,
15:40and if it just happens to be that, that is also the story they're selling about the Malay unity narrative,
15:46because that's the extra edge. That's the, you know, that's the, the, the, the icing on the cake
15:51that just gets everything, um, settled for them. Like this is, they know that this, this will be a
15:58selling equation. Definitely. There is more nuance. It's not as black and white as it is, um, as it's
16:05been painted out to be. Trisha, thank you so much for being on the show with me. I really appreciate
16:09your time. Dr. Trisha, you're there wrapping up this episode of Consider This. I'm Melissa Idris,
16:13signing off for the evening. Thank you so much for watching and good night.
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