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The Johor state election is shaping up as a key test of voter sentiment towards both Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional, who are now partners in government but rivals on the campaign trail. In Johor, DAP faces questions not just about electoral performance, but about shifting political support and coalition dynamics. On this episode of #ConsiderThis Melisa Idris speaks with Liew Chin Tong, Deputy Minister of Finance and DAP Strategic Director as well as MP for Iskandar Puteri, Johor.
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00:19Hello and good evening. I'm Melissa Idris. Welcome to Consider This. This is the show
00:23where we want you to consider and reconsider what you know of the news of the day. I'm here in
00:27Skudai Johor where the Consider This team is following one of the most closely watched
00:33battlegrounds in Malaysian politics. This is one that has implications for the whole country. It
00:40extends further than the state of Johor itself. And for DAP specifically in Johor, it faces questions
00:48about shifting political support as well as evolving coalition dynamics. And helping us
00:55answer some of these questions, I have with me Liu Chin Tong, who is the Deputy Minister of Finance.
01:00He's also the DAP Strategic Director and the MP for Putri Iskandar in Johor. He's also the former
01:08Perling Assemblyperson, a seat he is not defending in these elections, but the seat will be contested
01:14by DAP candidate Alan T in this upcoming polls. So welcome to the show. Thank you so much.
01:20Welcome to Johor. Thank you. And taking time out of the very, very busy campaign trail this next week,
01:25I'm sure will be quite intense. So let's talk a little bit about why you're not defending the
01:29Perling Assembly seat. So Alan T was your political secretary. That's right. So was that your decision
01:38to pass the baton? Yes. I have always wanted to focus on federal politics. And in 2022, when the state
01:45election was called, I actually had no position. My senatorship ended at the time. So the party wanted
01:50me to lead the campaign. And at that time, it was a very difficult election. The MCO was not lifted
01:58then and Malaysians in Singapore couldn't come back. So it was a very tough fight. So I led the fight
02:04and I became the opposition leader for a while. And when federal election happened, I contested
02:10the parliamentary seat and became a deputy minister. So I handed over the opposition leader
02:16of the state assembly to a colleague of mine, Andrew Chen. And he's standing in Stulang. So
02:22at this time, I would like to see more DAP leaders being fielded. And I am happily ceding the seat
02:30to my colleague. Well, I'm looking at the line-up of the DAP candidates. Very youthful
02:35line-up this time around. And very interesting and very gender-balanced.
02:38Very, okay. So talk to me about the thinking around this candidate line-up and why you think
02:44that this is the candidates to field this time around. We've always wanted to have a mix
02:49of candidates at different age groups. Our youngest candidate is 28 years old. Not necessarily
02:56very young by DAP standards. One in contested at the age of 26. I contested at the age of
03:0131. And Anthony was a state assemblyman at the age of 27. But we also have three candidates
03:08who are in their early 50s. And most of them are in their 30s and 40s. So I think this
03:16is
03:16a good line-up. We give opportunity to leaders who are in their, I would call maybe, youth and
03:22middle age. Are they first-time candidates? Some of them are first-time candidates. Some
03:27of them are incumbents. We have four or five incumbents defending their seats. And we have
03:32two candidates who lost in the previous election and recontesting this round. And the rest are
03:41newcomers. Okay. All right. So what I'm very proud of is that this is actually for the first
03:45time in history that in any political party in Malaysia fielding almost half of their candidates
03:50from among women. Out of 17 candidates, eight of them are actually women.
03:55I'm very happy to hear that. Hopefully next electoral cycles we'll see more and more of
04:01this. We want to pave the way to show that Malaysia can be represented by those in their 30s, those
04:09in their 40s, and also represented by many women as well. Okay. Well, you brought up how different
04:14it was in 2022. And I wanted to talk about that. How do you see the differences between
04:21the time that was 2022, post-COVID, before AI and the likes, and 2026? And what, as DAP's
04:32strategic director, what do you see are the stakes for DAP in this election?
04:39Well, there are different parts of the question. Let's break it down, yes.
04:42So the first part of the question, actually between the March 2022 state election and the
04:48November federal election in 2022, it was actually, it was a huge difference. ABNO maintained
04:56almost the same number of votes in Johor, which was about 590,000 votes, plus minus 1,000 votes
05:06between the two elections. But Pakatan had about 400,000 votes in the March election. By
05:13the November 2022 election, Pakatan had about 830,000 votes. So if the state election had
05:22been held at the same time as GE15, Pakatan would have won the state. Yeah, Pakatan would
05:27have won the state. Pakatan would have won 31 state seats out of 56 state seats. And in
05:33fact, during the general election, out of 26 parliamentary seats in Johor, Pakatan won
05:4015, including Sadiq's, what do you call it?
05:43Muasid. Muasid. Muasid.
05:45Muasid. Muasid.
05:45Muasid. And Barista National won nine.
05:47Brekata National won two seats out of 26 seats. Now, Johor is interesting because Johor was
05:54the bastion of Barista National. And because of that, during the 1993 and 2003 redimination
06:00exercises, Johor was given the most number of seats in the peninsula, despite having less population
06:07compared to Selangor. So in Sarawak, there are 31 seats. In Sabah, there are 25 seats. And
06:13in Johor, there are actually 26 parliamentary seats. And what was very significant was in
06:20Johor, the opposition at that time, which was my party, won only one out of 26 seats in
06:262008. And in 2013, DAP plus PKR won five out of 26 seats. In 2018, which was very significant,
06:37perhaps most significant in Malaysian history, Pakatan Harapan at that time, inclusive of
06:44Prasadu then, Dr. Masli at that time, combined won 18 out of 26 parliamentary seats. And why
06:54it was so relevant nationally was because on the night of 9 of May 2018, Pakatan Harapan
07:03had only 113 seats. Just one seat more than the threshold. And 18 of them came from Johor.
07:11That's how significant Johor is.
07:12I remember 2018 as quite a watershed moment for the state of Johor. Do you think 2026 would
07:18be as watershed for pH? I would say that depending on the turnout. Turnout matters. Turnout matters
07:26because Johor is a state where many of its young people from central and northern Johor are either
07:35in Kuala Lumpur or in Singapore. And many of the Johorians in southern Johor, most likely
07:42they are working in Singapore. So high turnout would benefit pH? Yes. High turnout would generally
07:47benefit pH. Not necessarily. Not necessarily, but generally benefit pH because most of Malaysians
07:56who are not attached to the working of their own community in the kampung would have a different
08:04view about the nation compared to, say, those who are attached to their hometown and those
08:10who are attached to a Baharistan National, what they call patronage system and also their
08:16community structure. So Baharistan National was a very strong party in Johor because it was
08:22indeed a very strong and capable government up until probably maybe 20 years ago. So in Johor,
08:30Baharistan National had their best talent from Johor for national politics. You have the likes of
08:37Husein On, you have the likes of Musa Hitam coming from Johor. And they was, Baharistan National
08:44in Johor was very strong. But I think over time it has frayed and it was able to maintain the
08:51grassroots machine, but it was not able to convince the rest of the state that it is serving their
08:57interests because young people have to leave the place and work elsewhere. And this is an
09:04anecdotal story. I was the Member of Parliament for Kuang. During Hariraya, the Water Authority
09:13will come to brief me as Member of Parliament on their preparations to prevent
09:20water disruption in Felda area. Whereas Chinese New Year, they will come to brief me on
09:27preventing water disruption in urban areas. Because both Malay and Chinese have their
09:32youngster living in KL or Singapore. And that's Johor.
09:37Okay. Coming back to the double-barrel question that I asked in the beginning about what are the stakes for
09:43DAP in this election?
09:44I think the stakes for Pakatan Harapan as a whole is whether we can convince Malaysians that we should move
09:53forward.
09:54We should not look back to the nostalgia for Najib. The idea that the old order was better. And whether
10:05we can convince Johorians that it is not just about Johor.
10:11It's about Johor. But it's also about the future of Malaysia. That we want to look forward. We want to
10:16move forward. We want a democracy. We don't want a system where we move back to the past where it
10:26is authoritarian. It is patronage. It is cronism.
10:31So it's difficult. It is a difficult moment for Pakatan as a whole. Because to convince Malaysians that moving forward,
10:41we need to do more together. We need to do more together because we need to convince everyone.
10:48It's not just convincing a small group of people or convincing one ethnic group. We have to convince everyone that
10:53Malaysia needs to move forward together.
10:56So do you think the Johor elections, is that really about Johor state issues? Or is it more a referendum
11:04of the Madani administration?
11:06I would say it's a referendum for whether you support the old order or the new order.
11:13Okay.
11:15Because this election was triggered by Parisian National with a certain idea in mind. The idea, and among some of
11:23them, not everyone, but among some of them who triggered this election,
11:26they think that they could win Johor hands down. And once they win Johor hands down, they want to move
11:32to Melaka. And beyond that, they want to carry the momentum to the federal election.
11:37So in many ways, this is the whole plan to reassert Parisian National one-party rule to bring Malaysia back
11:48to pre-2018 order.
11:49So if you watch the speeches by the Menteri Bazaar, everything after 2018 was bad. It was before 2018 that
12:01was the ideal state. I mean, we all know it's not true.
12:04The nostalgia you were talking about, right?
12:06But they are trying to present that the Najib era was a better era. Malaysia should move back to pre
12:14-2018. And that's exactly what we do not want. But we are now stuck with this choice.
12:20We are now stuck with this choice. Either we support Parisian National so that they could reassert the old order,
12:28pre-2018 old order, or we move forward together to build a larger support base and coalition for a Malaysia
12:37that is more multiracial, a Malaysia that is more, there's clean and less corruption.
12:46So I've been attending some of the ceramah since last night. I was at the PH mega ceramah in Tebrau.
12:52So talk to me a little bit about that.
12:53Because what I heard, the narratives have been quite confusing. And I wonder whether voters have been able to internalise
13:00that.
13:00You're working with Parisian National at the federal level. But at the state level, you're fighting your opponents in this
13:08electoral campaign.
13:10Now, for many of the candidates who are both MPs and ADUNs, this can be quite conflicting, right? Your friends
13:16at the federal, enemies at the state.
13:19So like Matt Sabu say, kawan boleh, lawan pun boleh.
13:24Kawan dan lawan. But then, does that complicate the narrative? When you have the calls for the Najib Royal Pardon
13:31now entering the conversation, does that complicate the narrative specifically for DAP?
13:37When you are talking to your voter base, how do you make sense of that? What are they telling you
13:43and what are you telling them?
13:44I think we are very clear that we are part of Pakatan Harapan, number one. Number two, we know that
13:53it was by the King's decree and also because we just didn't have the number, we had to form a
14:00government.
14:00Number three, there was an opportunity. And the choice was not in our hand. The choice was more of in
14:07UMNO's hand.
14:08That UMNO could choose either to move forward and to contest the next general election within the unity format or
14:19they could choose to partner with PAS.
14:22And this choice is not in our hand. This choice is not in the hands of the DAP. This choice
14:26is not in the hands of Pakatan Harapan. This choice is basically made by UMNO.
14:30And within UMNO, there are people who believe that it's good to contest under unity framework.
14:38And if it is under unity framework, that will mean that Pakatan Harapan and Pakistan National will have to negotiate
14:45seats.
14:45And once we negotiate seats, Pakatan Harapan will contest less than 165 in the peninsula.
14:52And Pakistan National will contest perhaps half or less than half of 165 seats in the peninsula.
14:59So that's one choice that UMNO would have to make. And UMNO is clear that they have to choose either
15:06one.
15:06They either work with Pakatan Harapan or they work with PAS because UMNO also understand that they can't just contest
15:16165 seats and hope to win 165 seats or hope to win a majority out of 165 seats.
15:22And I think UMNO has chosen, at least in this Chohok state election, UMNO has made the decision that they
15:31wanted to work with PAS or at least they want to use this state election to experiment working with PAS
15:37and standing against Pakatan Harapan.
15:39In some of their minds, they think that it is better off for them to contest against Pakatan Harapan, thinking
15:48that this is a way for them to maximize their gain.
15:52And perhaps that argument was particularly prevalent within the Chohok circle, but not necessarily good for the nation.
15:59Okay, so you said some things are out of your control, out of Pakatan Harapan's control. But what is within
16:08Pakatan Harapan's control, what is within DAP's control is trying as best as possible to regain some of the support.
16:16So let's take a look at the Sabah elections, lessons from the Sabah elections where there was quite a wipe
16:24out if I may use that term.
16:27Have there been conversations or reflections in terms of what can be done better in Johor based on that electoral
16:35cycle?
16:35I think Sabah has its unique condition and that unique condition includes there was an attractive alternative in the form
16:45of Warisan to those who have voted for us before that particular state election.
16:51And there were also prevalent conditions in Sabah which I would not want to go into.
16:55So you think it's two separate conditions? Sabah is separate?
17:01Even although some of the conditions are very similar and we have been trying to deal with some of the
17:07conditions and of course we also have to deal with disinformation and of course genuine unhappiness and disaffection as well.
17:17So some of these elements are present in the Johor election.
17:20But I think the Johor election is interesting that it is very transparent to the voters that UMNO is making
17:30move or Parisian National is making move to reshape the political scene not just for Johor but nationally.
17:37And that I think is transparently clear for many voters and it is quite interesting that perhaps our opponent at
17:47the state level which is Parisian National were probably a bit overconfident when they dissolved the state assembly on 1st
17:54of June.
17:54So from on 1st of June when the state assembly was dissolved, I think at the time they thought they
18:02would win a hands down majority.
18:05They thought they would win with a huge majority and there are people who say 45, 48, 53 out of
18:1356.
18:14But the ground reality is not necessarily so.
18:18So was it that they misread the situation on the 1st of June or has the situation changed in the
18:24last month?
18:25I would say that they have misread their successes in 2022.
18:32I think they thought they're 40, they have won 40 legitimately, they have won 40 by the weight or by
18:44their own strength, which of course not necessarily true because the federal election in November 2022 has already shown that
18:51March 2022 was not necessarily a normalcy.
18:58So I think they have misread 2022, therefore they thought they are very strong.
19:04And they have also probably misread their strength as a government because most of what has been achieved in Johor,
19:14which is very impressive, I must say what Johor has achieved over the last few years are very impressive.
19:21But most of the so-called achievement were actually collaboration and fruits of collaboration between federal and the state government.
19:31For instance, the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone is clearly a joint effort and it was very much because Prime
19:40Minister Anwar thinks that Malaysia and Singapore should cooperate more with positive response from Singapore.
19:49Because both sides learned the lesson of COVID and realized that there is a need to work closer, especially to
19:57get the two supply chains to be more connected.
20:01So the point is, I think, number one, they misread 2022.
20:05Number two, they misread their successes or achievements in Johor.
20:11And this is actually understood by the public. The public understood that it is not just your state government's achievement,
20:19it's actually joint effort.
20:21Okay. Well, so it's not just about how UMNO may or may not have misread the situation.
20:27What about the current support for PH, the current support for DAP?
20:31We had Ong Kian Ming, former DAP MP Ong Kian Ming, he projected that PH could see a significant decline
20:39in support among Chinese and Indian voters in Johor.
20:42Do you agree with that reading of the political landscape?
20:44Yeah, I would encourage him to say more so that more voters come back to work.
20:50What is your current reading of the support that PH has? I would also say there are new entrants in
20:56the Johor game competing in the same seats that DAP and PH are competing in.
21:01My reading is that Parisian National started with 40 seats and they are likely to lose some seats, although at
21:12this moment they probably still have a chance to form the government.
21:15But they are probably in for surprises where they may lose some seats.
21:21What do you make of Bersama's entry into the political scene? Are you concerned about votes?
21:26Yes, I am.
21:27Or even migration of votes?
21:29Yes, yes I am.
21:31And number one, we are very clear that we know Bersama would not win any seats.
21:37And this was admitted by Rafizi himself.
21:39Rafizi admitted that Bersama is not going to win any seats.
21:43But Rafizi also wanted to win at least to save the deposit.
21:48Yeah, to save the deposit.
21:49Yeah, to save the deposit.
21:49Yeah, one-third of the vote.
21:51And of course this is a very appealing message for people who are not happy with PH and they will
21:55say,
21:55okay, let's help Bersama to keep their deposit.
22:01But this will probably harm Pakatan Harapan in marginal seats.
22:05In seats where we may be winning just five to seven or eight or ten percent.
22:12And it will have an impact.
22:14It will have an impact if turnout is not high enough and if Bersama is able to snatch away five
22:21to eight or ten percent.
22:23See, their argument is that, oh, after all, Pakatan is not going to win power.
22:28Might as well you let Pakatan lose.
22:30Okay, Jintong, here's what I need to understand.
22:32What do you think is the space that Bersama believes there is in the political landscape for another reform-focused
22:44party?
22:45I think Bersama is on this game.
22:48They know that they won't win a seat, but they want to cause defeat to a few Pakatan seats.
22:54Because if they could cause Pakatan to lose a couple of seats, then they will be at the negotiating table.
23:01So they thought.
23:03They will be at the negotiating table for general election.
23:06And their purpose is to be a spoiler and their purpose is to harm Pakatan Harapan.
23:13To cause Pakatan Harapan to lose a couple of seats so that they will have leverage to negotiate with Pakatan
23:18Harapan in the upcoming elections.
23:21And what do you make of that?
23:23I mean, we cannot rule that.
23:25In terms of it being a democracy, in terms of the voters' expectations, what do you make of that?
23:30What conversations has Pakatan Harapan had to have about the presence of Bersama in the landscape?
23:38I think we have to acknowledge that they are concerned, they are unhappiness, and they are dissatisfaction among our voters
23:48who think that the speed of reform has to be faster.
23:52And I think we have to acknowledge that the unity government is constrained by many other factors when some of
24:02these reforms are not fast enough.
24:03And I think we have to take the bull by the horn and admit that these are the challenges.
24:09But many of our voters also understand that this is a coalition government.
24:13This is a set-up in which we will be constrained.
24:19And the questions that we would like to ask and the message that we would like to convey is whether
24:26we are on the right track.
24:27And I think broadly this government, the government led by Prime Minister Anwar, is on the right track.
24:34And that is what we are trying to convince the voters. We need time, we need more support, and we
24:40need one more term for Anwar.
24:43And that one more term of Anwar would also require that at least in this Johor State election,
24:49Barisan National is not going to continue their momentum nationally.
24:55Whether we can cut a few seats from them from 40 seats, or whether there can be even more surprises
25:02in Johor.
25:03And that will help us to strengthen our case into the federal election.
25:07So I said in my introduction that the Johor State election is not just about Johorians and them voting, but
25:14the rest of Malaysia is watching.
25:15I want to get a sense from you, how closely is Singapore watching these elections?
25:20That I am not sure, but of course Singapore is very close to Johor, and of course Singapore will be
25:25very keenly trying to understand what's going on.
25:29Okay, so they might be interested in how the state votes come 11 July.
25:35I guess foreign observers will be interested to know what is happening in Malaysia in the months to come.
25:43Because the two state elections, and potentially later on, the Malacca state election, the Sarawas state election, and the upcoming
25:52federal election.
25:53We are now within a year and a half from the deadline of automatic dissolution.
26:02And I guess particularly the investment community, foreign neighbours, of course I think they are keenly trying to understand what's
26:10going on.
26:11And can you give them any kind of clarity? Uncertainty is the enemy of business.
26:15I think from my engagement with investors, especially in a rather chaotic global geopolitical situation, and also with some of
26:26neighbours having internal situation.
26:29Malaysia fare quite well during the Strait of Hormones crisis.
26:34Malaysia and Singapore are seen as safe havens to many investors, and I thought that was quite an interesting moment,
26:42because for the longest of time, Malaysia got into international news for the wrong reason.
26:48But lately, especially in the last two years, we find very warm receptions from investors, from the investing community.
27:00And it is clear that they understand that within this chaotic global situation, Malaysia has an interesting role to play,
27:10especially in the diversification away from the Chinese supply chain.
27:15So, yeah, they are concerned, and my message is Malaysia has actually turned the page.
27:24Malaysia has actually turned the page. We have moved on. We have institutionalised quite a lot of reform.
27:31And interestingly, Malaysia is now a democracy.
27:37Malaysia is no longer a one-party state.
27:40And Malaysia, after surviving five prime ministers in six years, policy consistency is quite assuring.
27:53And institutions like Kazana, institutions like Bank de Gara, PNB, and the Security Commission,
28:02they are quite consistent in playing their institutional role.
28:07And Malaysia, I would say, is quite distinctively different from some other neighbours,
28:15in the sense that we do have strong institutions.
28:18It's not too disruptive, is it?
28:20Yeah, and these institutions actually play their role beyond political cycles.
28:25And one, the best way to recap this is, think about this, why Najib had to set up one MDP.
28:34It was really because he couldn't get any way, his way with EPF, with Kazana, and with Bank de Gara.
28:46Because this institution, even at the height of a one-party state, at the height of a very strong, dominant
28:53prime minister,
28:55they were able to withstand the pressure from unscrupulous activities by the prime minister.
29:02And we are now in a democracy, we are trying to put in a two-term limit to the prime
29:06minister's position, safeguards.
29:08And I think Malaysia is an interesting story of transformation, where we now show that institutions actually outlast political cycle,
29:20institutions outlast political possibilities.
29:23Chitong, thank you so much for speaking with me on Consider This today.
29:26That's all the time we have for you on this episode of Consider This.
29:29I'm Melissa Idris, signing off for the evening.
29:32Thank you so much for watching, and good night.
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