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- #considerthis
Negeri Sembilan will soon go to the polls in a contest that could reveal the strength, and the limits, of new political partnerships. Will this state election test the relationship between Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan, who are allies in Putrajaya but rivals on the ground? And what of the rekindled friendship now blooming between BN and Perikatan Nasional? On this episode of #ConsiderThis Melisa Idris speaks with Dr Syaza Shukri, Associate Professor of Political Science at IIUM.
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00:19Hello and good evening. I'm Melissa Idris. Welcome to Consider This. This is the show
00:23where we want you to consider and then reconsider what you know of the news of the day. Negeris
00:27Mila will soon go to the polls in a contest that could reveal the strengths and the limits
00:33of new political partnership. Will this state election test the relationship between Barisan
00:40National and Pakatan Harpan who are allies in Putrajaya but will be rivals on the ground?
00:45And what about the rekindled friendship that's now blooming between Perikatan National and
00:53Barisan National? So joining us on the show now to help us discuss all of this is Dr Shaza Shukri,
00:59who is an Associate Professor of Political Science at IIUM. Dr Shaza, good to have you back on the show
01:04with us. So post-nomination day this past weekend, what are your thoughts in terms of who's fielding
01:11whom where? And I'm wondering whether you think this election is primarily a contest between
01:17Barisan National and Pakatan Harpan? Or how do you see? Do you see if there's more to it?
01:25Well, firstly, thanks for having me. How do I see it? It's definitely a more straightforward fight if we
01:32compare to Johor where, you know, we were seeing when you're asking about nomination, right? When we compare
01:37with Johor, there were a few four, five corner seats. But in Negeri Seminar, it was mostly three corner where
01:47Bersatu is there. So there are about what, 24 seats where Bersatu is contesting in. So it's a bit more
01:53straightforward.
01:54So some people might say, well, there are three corner fights, then wouldn't Bersatu kind of be in the picture
02:01and affect the result.
02:02But I really don't think so. I really looking at the big names that were sent, especially by Barisan
02:09National, it does look more like a Pakatan Harpan versus Barisan National with the help of Perikatan
02:17National, right? So that's the more interesting part that Barisan National appears to realize, I guess,
02:25that in Negeri Seminar, it needs the, it needs the assistance of Perikatan National more openly.
02:32Because in Johor, they did get that as well. But in Negeri Seminar, it appears to not consolidate, but it's
02:39more open.
02:40So it's really between, in a way, Pakatan Harpan, the incumbent state government, and the contender Barisan
02:47National and Perikatan National.
02:48Well, I'm glad you brought up Johor. If we may just look back at Johor before we look forward to
02:53Negeri Seminar.
02:54After Johor, I think many observers had believed that Malays support had consolidated, if I may use the
03:01word that you use now, had consolidated behind Barisan National. Do you agree that that's the case?
03:06Do you think that that is the biggest question now as we head into Negeri Seminar?
03:12Okay, if we look back at Johor, I think that that is one of the factors for BN, meaning big
03:19in Johor, definitely.
03:21There is no doubt because from what I've heard from people on the ground that if you go on the
03:26East Coast,
03:27there's really a lot of this narrative, this sentiment about Malay unity, you know, umah unity.
03:34So definitely that plays into voters' decision on Johor Election Day, but I think that's just one of it.
03:42A lot of the factors were in hand in Johor, like the Menteri Besar and whatnot.
03:47So in Negeri Seminar, on the other hand, since it's going to be a bit more competitive than Johor,
03:54um, and they don't really have that poster boy, the way that Johor had, you know, the Tok Min in
04:02Negeri Seminar,
04:03might be the poster boy for, uh, Pakatan Harapan. But for Barisan National, we can see they're very
04:08reluctant to put up a name for an MB candidate. So I feel like this whole Malay narrative, the Malay
04:15unity sentiment is really going to be high up there, uh, during the campaign. And I think
04:25voters do take that into consideration, uh, uh, in Negeri Seminar. I'm just trying to think of how to,
04:30you know, with it. Um, but yeah, it's, it's, it's really a big factor. Uh, I would say,
04:36unfortunately, if, if we're going to play the race card, but yes, because it's very clear on one hand,
04:41we have this, um, Malay PAC, right? PAS and UMNO. On the other hand, we have Pakatan Harapan. Um,
04:48so yeah, that's definitely one of it. Yeah. Do you, you, so you would say that
04:53by PAS, um, PAS has described itself, if I may use that as a good friend, uh, to Barisan
04:59National during this campaign. Do you see that, uh, significantly tipping the odds in the favour
05:06of Barisan National, even though they may be fielding a non-Malay candidate in Malay majority seats?
05:14Yeah, I, I do think so. Because again, if you look at, at Johor, you know, people are talking about
05:19the seats that MCA won, MIC won, and looking at, some have done a deep dive into the analysis, and
05:26a lot of the votes actually came from Malay voters, uh, in the area, because we've seen how Chinese
05:33voters did not go out to vote, etc. Uh, so those who went vote for the AP, but the, the,
05:39the winning of, of
05:40MCA and MIC can be partly explained by, um, the shift of Malay voters supporting, uh, Barisan
05:47National, even if it's a non-Malay candidate. So in Negeri Milan, uh, I believe it's, it's going to be
05:54the same thing, um, even if they are non-Malay candidates of Barisan National, but even then,
06:01most of them are put in areas where, um, they're competing against DAP, uh, which I think would be
06:07very difficult for this, uh, MCA, MIC, um, what we call candidate, uh, from Barisan National. But
06:15in other parts, uh, of the states that are outside of PH or DAP stronghold, I would say,
06:20uh, yeah, uh, the, the, the, the, the unity of PAS, uh, or the support of PAS towards Barisan
06:27National is really going to help them because we compare a lot with, uh, PRN 2023, right? When
06:36BN was working with Pakatan Harapan and we saw that the vote transferability was quite low, meaning
06:41that, yeah, BN voters are unwilling to support PH and vice versa. People are asking whether it's going
06:47to be the same thing here, can PAS and UMNO voters and supporters vote for the other. I think it's,
06:55it's a higher likelihood than they would to vote for PH slash DAP. Right. Can I ask you then about
07:01Anthony Lok's Chenna seat? Because that's, um, attracted quite a fair bit of attention. The, the
07:07demographic, demographic arithmetic suggests that this seat could particularly be quite competitive.
07:13How vulnerable do you think Anthony Lok is in this Chenna contest?
07:20I would say that it's going to be tough, right? It's going to be difficult. It's not going to be
07:24an,
07:24an easy, smooth win for him. Yet, looking at what's going on, I feel that he has a good chance
07:33of
07:33retaining it, maybe with a, a, a small majority or a smaller majority. But yeah, we can see that, uh,
07:40it's, it's, it's going to be a tough seat and it's not just him, right? Tok Min's seat also,
07:44he's putting himself, uh, in Linggi, in a new constituency, BN stronghold. So,
07:49they are really putting themselves in these very difficult positions. Uh, but given their station,
07:55who they are, I think there's a chance for them to retain or, for Tok Min's case, to win the
08:01seat.
08:02Yeah. What, what do you make of the Linggi contest? This is quite an interesting one for him to be,
08:06to be contesting in this seat. Um, what, looking at the, the way Pakatan Harapan has mapped out where
08:16their candidates will be fielded, what does it speak to you about who Pakatan Harapan is placing
08:21their bets on? What is Pakatan Harapan trying to prove in fielding these candidates where they are?
08:28I think they're trying to show that their influence can go beyond their urban or semi-urban seats, right?
08:36I mean, that's the main idea to prove that, uh, Pakatan Harapan is not just an urban or I guess
08:43non-Malai,
08:44moderate Malay kind of coalition that we always speak about. And especially for the case of, of Tok Min,
08:50I think he's just following the precedent set by, uh, PMX himself, right? Putting himself in tambun,
08:56trying to prove, uh, that he can do it in a, in a, uh, Malay majority constituency. So again,
09:02I think that's what they're thinking is that he wants to show that if he wins, then he's definitely
09:08the best, uh, Menteri Besar for Negeri Semen at this point. But before we can even think of that,
09:13can he actually win that seat, right? So that is the biggest, uh, question mark right now. And a lot
09:18of
09:19people are saying is, is again, it's, it's a very tough, it's going to be 50, 50 for him. It's
09:23going
09:23to depend on himself as the Menteri Besar for two term, what he has done for the state. But again,
09:30it's a BN, uh, stronghold. So we'll see what happens. Okay. Dr. Shahza, can I ask you about the
09:37Negeri Semilan royal dispute that's become very much of the part of the campaign narrative? How much
09:45influence do you think that issue could have with voters, particularly with Malay voters?
09:51To be honest, I don't think it's, it's, it's gonna be very important for them in making the decision.
09:56I say this because if, if we look at, uh, the series of events that happen, it's very, um, you
10:03know,
10:03sort of at an elite level kind of situation, right? The, the party leadership's going at each other,
10:09uh, over this crisis. But if you look at the people, it's, it's, it's not what they are considering
10:16when they want to go out to vote. Because again, when we talk about state elections, people are
10:20talking about local issues, about, you know, development, cost of living, and for Negeri Semilan,
10:25people are talking about transportation going back and forth from Seremban to Klang Valley. Those are the
10:31things that they want. They want to see development outside of Seremban. So these are the things that are
10:36more important, I would say, but we should not downplay it. Of course, there would be a segment
10:41of the population that might think that this is important because it does in the end, um, lead
10:49to either stability or instability in the state, unfortunately, because these two things go hand
10:53in hand. Because this election is, in a way also is the result of the crisis, right? So to solve
11:00that,
11:00we had this election, um, hopefully it would resolve it one way or another. But for
11:06voters themselves, it's not that important. But for the politicians, uh, for the party leaders,
11:11yes, they have to figure this out. Okay. Um, I'm going to circle back to something we talked
11:16about at the beginning of our conversation. When we talked about Three Corner Fights, we brought in
11:19Bersatu. I'm curious to know, um, what your thoughts are. Bersatu contesting alone for the first time
11:25after being dropped by PN. Is this, the polls, Negerisman polls, essentially a referendum on Bersatu's own
11:34political relevance? Hmm. Uh, yeah, definitely. I would say so. I was thinking because seldom heard
11:41that term being used to, to, to, to, to referendum on Bersatu, right? Usually it's referendum on Bersatu's own
11:47PH and whatnot. Um, yeah, I would definitely say so. Because in Johor, there were a lot of talk about,
11:52okay, are they going to use Perikatan National? And yes, they did. But then that created a lot of confusion
11:58because how can your partners from Perikatan National not helping you? So I guess in Negerismanian,
12:03it's, it's a more clear cut divorce in a way that, okay, we're using our own logo. It's not
12:09Perikatan National. You're voting for us for Bersatu. So I think they're trying to test this,
12:15yeah, the relevance and also the strength of that, that brand. Is, is, is, is Bersatu still,
12:21yeah, relevant to, to voters? Can they move ahead? I think they're also thinking about, you know,
12:26creating the new coalition that they've talked about that will, I guess, will be led by them. So
12:30then in order for them to lead a potential new coalition, they need to prove that they're worthy
12:36of that position, right? To be a leader of a brand new coalition. So there's a lot, uh, there's a
12:43lot
12:43on this for, for, for, for Bersatu definitely in Negerismanian. Okay. And in the campaign period that will
12:49lead up to polling day, what are you going to be watching for Dr. Shaza? Are there specific
12:55constituencies that you consider bellwethers for these elections?
13:00I guess I'm going to sound like a broken record, but I, I'm really going to look at Linggi really,
13:06really closely just because to see again, how, how strong is Tok Min himself? Because
13:13Pakatan Harapan is really, you know, going to run this campaign based on that, the idea that we are
13:19two term, uh, government, look at what the things that we have done. And this is our, uh, Menteri
13:25Besar for, for two terms. And I want to see if that is still, do voters look at those kind
13:31of facts
13:32when they're making decisions, when they go out to vote, but it doesn't really matter. Or it's really
13:37about, about the party, about sentiment. So that's why I'm interested in Linggi to see actually how
13:43people would vote what is more important to them because it would tell us a lot, uh, for these parties,
13:50especially going into G16 on, does it matter on, on the state, uh, development and whatnot, or is it really
13:58going back to sentiment? Wow. Okay. Definitely. We're going to keep a very close eye on the Linggi seat.
14:03That's possibly the hottest seat in these elections. Dr. Shaza, thank you so much for being on the show with
14:08me today.
14:09I appreciate your time. Dr. Shaza Shukri there from IIUM. We're going to take a quick break here and
14:13consider this. We will be back with more. Stay tuned.
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