- 6 weeks ago
- #considerthis
Sabah heads to the polls for its 17th state election, with Polling Day set for November 29th. The two-week campaign begins after Nomination Day on the 15th, and it’s shaping up to be a tight, unpredictable race. Major players like Gabungan Rakyat Sabah, Warisan, Pakatan Harapan, and Barisan Nasional are jostling for dominance, but no single coalition is expected to win an outright majority. So who might build the next government in Sabah? On this episode of #ConsiderThis Melisa Idris speaks with Ariff Adi Putera Anwar, Research Associate at the think tank Institute for Development Studies Sabah, based in Kota Kinabalu.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Hello and good evening. I'm Melissa Idris. Welcome to Consider This. This is the show where we want
00:15you to consider and then reconsider what you know of the news of the day. So Sabah heads to the
00:20polls for its 17th state election with polling day set for November 29th. The two-week campaign
00:29begins after nomination day tomorrow and it's shaping up to be a tight, unpredictable race.
00:36Now major players like Gabungan Rakyat Sabah, Warisan and Pakatan Harapan as well as Warisan National
00:41are all jostling for dominance but really no single coalition is expected to win an outright majority.
00:49So joining us to explore Sabah's fractured political landscape is Arif Adiputra Anwar who is a research
00:57associate at the think tank Institute for Development Studies Sabah based in Kota Kinabalu.
01:03Adi, welcome to the show. It's good of you to join me. Thank you for having me.
01:06For taking time out of such a busy period to come join us in the studio here in KL.
01:12I know that many people who are watching Sabah politics find it very confusing. I mean there
01:19are so many political parties, so many coalitions and not to mention the very hyper-local political
01:25parties and I think there are also scores of independent candidates. So taking all of that
01:31into account, I think it's maybe worthwhile that we start a conversation looking at maybe
01:36the lay of the land essentially. Talk to me a little bit about briefly where we are now in
01:43Sabah politics and how did we get here since the last state elections?
01:47I think the assumption going in is to understand Sabah politics is to know that no one can
01:53understand Sabah politics fully. There are just so many permutations, there are so many
01:57parties jostling for power. You have almost as many parties as you have seats to go attend
02:01for in the Sabah state elections. All going under their own variety of struggles, their own
02:07manifestos and some even have parties that are created just for one specific issue. One party
02:13that focuses just on the Zahra Karina case. So there are just as many issues and many individuals
02:17that want to put their name in the hat and say that perhaps it's my time to take up the potential
02:24reins of power. But conventionally you still have the Government and Rakyat Sabah, which
02:29is a coalition of more than at least seven parties at this point that are still contending to
02:34retain incumbency, to maintain that they still will enter the government, go for another term.
02:39We have Warisan, who even though some influence as Wayne, we've seen a resurgence in enthusiasm
02:44for Warisan this time around, especially on the east coast where their power base really
02:48resides. But they seem to be able to make inroads in particular seats that maybe challenge what
02:54would be considered an expected result, which is Pakatan Harapan seats now. Pakatan Harapan
03:00has chose to work together with GRS. However, with current sentiments with the Sabah for Sabahan slogan,
03:08we could see a shift with Pakatan Harapan seats, especially PKR contesting in about nine. We can see
03:15that maybe support for them has waned this time around with some measure of antagonism towards
03:20a Malaya-based, national-based parties. But you also have other factors. You have Parti Star,
03:26which exited GRS to right now talking to APCO, who has left Pakatan Harapan, and SAPP as well leaving GRS,
03:33somehow in conversations with one another to see that if they can form another potential gabungan
03:39itself. So in a way, these are the conventional layouts. But at the same time, it's so dynamic that
03:45in a way, everybody is talking to one another, one way or another.
03:49Is Perikatan national at all a major player at stake here? I've heard that do not underestimate
03:55because they still have machinery on the works. But however, it depends which aspect of Perikatan
03:59national will be contending. Will it be Brissatu, which is having its own internal issue right now,
04:04or will it be PAS, who has sort of respected their distance from Sabah. They understand that Sabah is
04:10a completely different animal compared to the home ground of the instrument. So yeah.
04:15Okay. So let's talk about, you laid out some of the kind of major players, and I want to maybe
04:20delve a little bit into some of the things that you said. So talk about GRS. When we talk about GRS
04:26and their confidence to retain power, their call for continuity, their Sabah Maju Jaya agenda,
04:33how much of that is resonating with the people that you're speaking to in terms of sentiment? Are
04:42Sabahans risk averse and wanting the continuity that GRS is saying that they will provide?
04:51It's very half and half because you have individuals and voters, in particular areas where GRS is strong,
04:56who has seen the progress that GRS has made under the Sabah Maju Jaya plan. And secondly,
05:01the stability that the GRS government has provided, even if we look at the, what happened with the
05:06Langka Kinabalu two, three years back, right? That became a sign that GRS is able to negotiate,
05:11able to maintain the stability of the coalition by making sure that all the coalition partners' interests
05:18are all managed properly, aligning with one another. Okay. So they can show that they can handle
05:24fragile coalitions. However, in particular areas, they would say that some of the implementation of the
05:29Sabah Maju Jaya plans hasn't really come into fruition. Oh, I see. Okay. So an uneven
05:38development under part of this plan. So you mentioned Sabah for Sabahans, and I think that is also quite a
05:45very strong feeling that's spreading ahead of the campaign period. Is this going to play into GRS's
05:58support base? Or are they going to find ways to distance themselves from Pakatan Harapan? Should
06:05federal-based political parties stay out of the race altogether? What do you think?
06:09Well, this is a very complicated topic because for Sabah for Sabahans resonate differently
06:14according to different areas. Now, if you see areas where STA, the KDM parties, like PBS,
06:20Sabah for Sabahans resonate strongly in a way that wants to challenge federal hegemony,
06:26where they want to see federal parties ousted from the race, where they don't have any say in
06:30chance of competing in this election. But then if you have GRS supporters, their understanding of
06:36Sabah for Sabahans means that we as Sabahans have to take the reins of responsibility and level up our
06:42negotiating skills with the federal government is understanding that yes, we must fight for our
06:48rights. But at the same time, we must maintain a healthy relationship with the federal government.
06:52And then you have Warisan, who also goes for its own brand of state nationalism.
06:59But we've seen that they have the doors open to collaborate as well with national-based parties.
07:05They move together with Barisan National for the Langkah Kinabalu and they're also part of the
07:09unity government. So one way or another, even though there's Sabah for Sabahans' sentiment strong,
07:14they will have to negotiate and work with a federal government for the next one or two years.
07:19Yeah, I do wonder about that because how much of that do you think is
07:26sentiment that's rooted in an organic need for more autonomy, more decentralisation,
07:33more recognition from the federal government? And how much of it is really about
07:40campaign theatre and posturing to voters?
07:44Because the Sabah for Sabahan issue rhetoric has conveniently found itself as an underpinning
07:50factor as to legacy issues in Sabah, where issues like infrastructure, lack of electricity,
07:57lack of water, lack of development is somehow framed under the rhetoric that a lot of Sabah's rights
08:03and development funds has been taken out and channeled very slowly in piecemeal by the federal
08:10government. So this is the rhetoric and the kind of perception that Sabah or Sabahan subscribers
08:15to the idea feel, especially those that feel strong. It's a situation of grievance. They feel that
08:22they've been neglected and that whatever that Sabah is rich in has been slowly stripped away and taken
08:27away to fuel central government itself. So it's a call for restoration of rights that have been eroded,
08:34but at the same time calls for more autonomy.
08:36How much of it is being framed under the 40% revenue entitlement? Is that part of mass
08:45conversation, public discourse, or is it still very at the elite level? Almost like MA63 happens
08:53around elite circles and not so much part of grassroots conversations. What do you think?
08:57In the past two years, it has really went into mainstream conversation. Everybody seems to be
09:02talking about the 40%, especially now with the high court ruling. And I'd say that it has amplified
09:09even further given Dr. Sri Anwar Ibrahim's gaffe, I would say, at Kota Kinabalu Gaya Street the other
09:15day when he was questioned about the 40%. So a lot of people in Sabah are becoming more aware that, wow,
09:21great sums of money is being taken out of Sabah and not being given back as is enshrined within the federal
09:28constitution. That the constitution, the supreme law of land has been completely neglected and that the
09:33federal government is in breach and irresponsible for not upholding what the reason Sabah and Sarawak
09:39formed the federation together Malaya for.
09:41How much of this election do you think is really almost a referendum, if I may use that word, on Anwar Ibrahim's
09:51leadership and how he is perceived to be supportive of Sabah's rights? Or how much is it really about local
10:01issues, domestic issues, personality politics? Does Anwar Ibrahim feature heavily in this? Because if you looked at all the
10:10posters in Sabah at the moment, you would think that Anwar Ibrahim's running for a seat there.
10:15Somehow Anwar Ibrahim has resolved this issue, resolved that issue, but somehow it doesn't resonate with
10:19the people and I wouldn't be surprised to see if PKR itself not really win any seats at all this time
10:26around. Maybe one or two seats possibly, but those are probably exceptional cases. I think the element of
10:32Dr. Sri Anwar Ibrahim here, what he has shown, his interaction to Sabah, might be more of a
10:38potential detriment to his coalition partners in Sabah than it is a benefit. Unless he finds a way
10:45to channel the rhetoric of the 40% to become more clarity, I'd say, because we want to know what
10:51exactly is the 40% made up of? How is it calculated? What is involved in it? Because the constitution and
10:57the Intergovernmental Committee report says net revenue, but tax revenue is a federal purview.
11:05So these kinds of uncertainties needs to be aired out and clarified and I believe that they're doing
11:09that in parliament right now and we'll see where they come into on a consensus or negotiation basis.
11:14They don't have much time to get the message out. It's two weeks of campaigning and there will be a lot
11:19of noise during this period. While we're still talking about the political parties and the coalitions,
11:27I want to talk about the black wave movement, the movement of independence. For those of us who have
11:35never come across this term, maybe you can tell us more about the black wave. How do we think about it
11:40and what is it that they're aiming to achieve? So the black wave movement led by Dato Verdon Bahanda,
11:45he decided that independence could stand the chance to challenge conventional parties to provide
11:51alternative choices to the people that do not resonate with conventional parties or conventional
11:56alliances, but still feel that they need a local representative in. So he has created a collective
12:02of other potential independent candidates. They have 13 right now under this thing called the black wave
12:07movement that seeks to try and win as many seats as they can and see how they can pressure whichever
12:15incoming state government to listen to independence more, to be able to have more voice and representation
12:23in the Dewan Dangan Negeri so that it's not dominated by particular blocs. So it provides an alternative
12:30for people to look at and alternative representation. Is this a healthy development for democracy? I do wonder
12:36because there have been commentators who point out this is part of a spoiler strategy, this is part of a
12:42pre-election negotiation strategy, part of wanting to become kingmakers. How do you see it?
12:49I think people who comment that are afraid that their horse would be losing. That's why they're making
12:53those statements. But the fact that we have so many parties and so many individuals in the race here
12:58shows that in some arguments you could say that this is the most democratic Sabah has ever been.
13:03Democracy doesn't mean just freedom to choose your representative, it's the freedom of choice as well.
13:09So at the end of the day it's the people that really decide who they want to represent them.
13:15So you cannot take that away by saying that oh this person shouldn't or this party shouldn't contest.
13:21I think if you are confident you put yourself out there, if you're confident in your messaging,
13:25you let the people decide in the end and with more choice means that that means there's more
13:29things to listen to from the ground itself to show that okay people support this kind of messaging
13:34apparently. So how can we inculcate that in our campaign or how do we make sure that we listen to
13:39them as well? I think it's fascinating because it's so different from the federal level politics that we
13:46see played out here in Malaya right in Peninsula Malaysia and for many uh voters, Peninsula voters,
13:54I think comes as a shock to see so many different parties in play where we are used to,
13:59we were used to the two-party system for decades and then you know the third coalition came about
14:05and like look at this new party so it comes with a lot of unlearning. Sabahans are probably used to
14:11having a plethora of choice as well but you're right it does boil down to the voters so talk to me a little
14:17bit about the voters um Sabah has a huge young population I think this um this time almost a
14:25third of the voters are more than 50 percent are youth about 55 percent there you go so uh talk to
14:32me about the youth vote this year are young people keen are they excited for the elections what's
14:38resonating with them? I feel there is more enthusiasm from young voters compared to before back then voter
14:43turnout among youth was quite low and historically that's been the case however we've seen more
14:48organized groups especially youths especially in urban areas to advocate and campaign for other young
14:55people to cast their vote to come back to Sabah and say that make your decision known make your vote
15:00known so that's in the urban area they're trying to advocate and push for more democratic participation
15:05from young people however in the rural area we can see sentiments which tends to follow the same
15:11lines and patterns that the older generation does because this comes down to the need socioeconomic
15:17needs of people in the rural areas where they focus more on what kind of services that the
15:24incumbents or the candidates can provide for them what kind of presence that the potential YBs and
15:30politicians have in their lives politicians and YBs in the rural areas play a very intimate part of
15:36uh cool life relationship yes they have a very close relationship and that is what you still young
15:41people want to see that does this uh politician come down to the ground a lot services community talk
15:47to the people that people still in the rural areas see that even though in the rural area in the urban
15:51areas they start to think of more loftier things they think of reform they think of the alleged videos
15:57that have been coming out yeah so there's a difference that it's urban rule divide which i think is also quite
16:03quite similar here in malaya and i think uh it's also reflective of that in sabah it's still the same
16:09but there is a growing uh emergence of more youth voices coming out that you don't see five years ago
16:17well that's encouraging but are they seeing themselves being represented and the issues that
16:21they care about being represented there's a lot of um kind of incumbent and older political players in sabah
16:28um where that's kind of juxtaposed against this message of change so we have the same kind of faces
16:36the same older voices or older uh incumbent older players and then there's the you know let's change
16:43let's move let's be different how how do you see that playing out and do young people feel like they
16:48have a choice they have a a stake in the game so to speak i think the feeling is that just vote anyway and
16:56will resolve the situation later however this is so it's emblematic of another big issue we have
17:04when it comes to how youths are engaged in politics in sabah is that the avenues and channels for youth
17:09to participate in politics is very very narrow because there's so many older politicians here that
17:14were trying to maintain power trying to feel like it's their time already to be a candidate so you're
17:21competing in a very saturated political arena there's not much avenue for young people to enter
17:26unless you've been in the party for a very long time since probably after school then probably yeah
17:31so this is emblematic that the fact that we do not have much opportunities for youth to participate
17:38in politics itself so hence why with ideas we've been talking to some of our CSO friends to think about
17:45what can we do to expand and open up opportunities for youth to join politics and that is through what we
17:51propose restoration of local government elections we should have a say in who we can choose our
17:57councillors our mayors all these uh these these kinds of local government positions and why not you have
18:03youths test their mettle in that arena first to show that can they be a service provider uh service the
18:09community at the really closest level to said community why don't we open that conversation for them to enter
18:15because that way we can also show that youths does have a role to play in governance that they can
18:20play that role they can service the community and over time show that hey maybe they can be legislative
18:25assembly people yeah that would be a great pathway into politics if you get kind of the older folks
18:31maybe to give the younger ones a chance um Adi talk to me a little bit about where we're at in terms of
18:37post-pol scenario so uh we talked about what where the lay of the land is but we know that given there's
18:45so many players no coalition no party no single party is expected to win a majority how do you see
18:52the post-pol scenario most likely end up with a hung assembly is that where most commentators are leaning
18:59towards if we look historically that seems to be a very likely scenario if we've seen with 2018 there was
19:05a few like huge uh jostling for who stays in what where which coalition who forms the government
19:11people being held against their will in particular houses to make sure you don't leave and then you
19:15see in uh 2020 you see that there was also a lot of jostling here and there people moving here and
19:20there then you saw in 2022 we had a hung parliament didn't we have government so i wouldn't be surprised
19:25to see if that's going to repeat itself this time because i think even the political parties and leaders
19:31they also don't know who do they really want to work with at the end of the day because at the end
19:35of the day the real politic and pragmatism and survival would be on the first and foremost concern
19:41of all the political leaders who can sway whoever to enter government together with so that's going to
19:48be i don't know if it's going to take five days before you decide on who is the government probably so
19:53i can imagine some vip houses some hotels they're going to be full of press relief the press will be
20:00all gathered over there you'll see all the fancy cars all lined up so is this is this good for
20:05democracy because it does for me feel like the so this time around there has been a lot of pre-seat
20:13coalition deal making you know that's behind the scenes and that's that the seat distribution has been
20:18discussed and maybe that feels like a lot of um backroom dealing happening and that maybe alludes to the
20:27fact that after elections there could be a lot of post-election bargaining from a democratic
20:34perspective is this healthy is this something we should aspire to who and from a sabah context who
20:40might be the king makers at play here i think it depends on the expectations of the voter if the
20:47voter votes just on the candidate based on the candidate themselves and not the party then i believe they're quite
20:52insulated and not really you know they don't feel so much when it comes to who forms the government
20:58in the end but if you vote for the party and you vote for probably the candidate of chief minister
21:03you're going to feel agree with that this is not this doesn't work out because we voted along these
21:06lines and then suddenly things change for example let's say people voted for warisam because they
21:11believe shafi abdahl should be chief minister suddenly he probably in the last minute works together with grs
21:16and he gets a deputy chief minister position right people will feel like hey but you fought against
21:20these people agree suddenly you're working together so where does that why does my vote even matter
21:25that's for some people that depends on expectations here but i think when it comes to king makers i
21:30believe it's going to be the smaller parties like kdm star probably uh even the black wave themselves
21:36the independent candidates because we could see some of the votes shift over to them and two three
21:42seats is already enough to put you as a kingmaker position star had about five seats and that was
21:49already enough to consider them as uh kingmakers so in a way smaller parties are all kingmakers in
21:55their in their own right because the margin is just so so small when langkang kinabalu happened
22:01there was a razor thin margin that the chief minister that had a very razor thin margin of holding
22:07confidence in the dun my god it will come down to each individual seat every seat will matter every
22:15seat counts every seat will matter okay so between nomination day tomorrow and polling day at the end
22:20of the on the 29th um adi what are you observing most closely that would happen that may happen in the
22:28next two weeks that will give you an indication of what we can expect in terms of the direction of
22:34sabah's next government i think i'll be closely looking at the role of national parties as they
22:41campaign inside sabah so role of national parties yes like example pkr and dap barisan national because
22:48definitely they will all have significant interest in sabah this time around they'll be flying into
22:52sabah campaigning for their parties making the case so be interesting to see what kind of rhetoric they
22:58be using would they be a rhetoric of concessions of giving back to sabah or be rhetoric pushing for
23:04we need to stand united sabah you must consider that you are we also be part of malaysia because
23:09that seems to be the rhetoric that they're pushing for in parliament that a you cannot be too vocal
23:15about this because we still have to maintain stability somehow which is quite patronizing to some sabahans
23:19i want to see what kind of messaging they would go out about in this next two weeks whether they will
23:26learn to be more in touch with the sentiments on the ground or will they feel that since they are a national
23:30party and they're in the government do they feel they're going to have to teach sabahans how to vote
23:36in a way why they are the prime choice at a national level so what would that suggest to you if you
23:43based on the the different scenarios if they do take a rhetoric that is a narrative that is slightly more
23:51about hey let's all make some let's all you know compromise what would that suggest to you as an
23:58analyst it was just made that whatever pressure that local parties have done on the federal level
24:05for example upco's exit it shows that that has an effect and that gives the indication that local
24:11parties have more power than people assume that they do have the ability to assert themselves and pressure
24:17the federal government for more concessions acceleration of negotiating the 40 percent and who
24:21knows maybe in the future more autonomy outside of the framework of ma63 which is what i hope would be
24:29moving forward with whichever incoming government would take up federalism under the spirit of ma63
24:35but we look towards the future more beyond ma63 as well yeah well adi thank you it has been such an
24:41illuminating conversation with you things are so fluid and i'm sure um you know every hour bodes a new
24:48development in the sub-elections but thank you for um joining us today and sharing your insights with
24:53us i appreciate your time thank you that's all the time we have for you on this episode of consider this
24:58i'm melissa idris signing off for the evening thank you so much for watching and good night
Be the first to comment