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The candidates for the Johor state elections are now set, and campaigning has officially begun. Johor voters now face a contest that pits allies in Putrajaya against one another, with implications that extend well beyond the state itself. So what will determine the outcome of the Johor states elections, and what will it reveal about the balance of power within Malaysian politics? On this episode of #ConsiderThis Melisa Idris speaks with Shazwan Mustafa Kamal, Director of the government affairs consultancy, Vriens & Partners.
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00:10Hi, welcome back to Consider This. I'm Melissa Idris. Let's continue our discussion about the
00:15Johor State elections. As campaigning unfolds, what are the factors likely to shape the final
00:22result and what could it mean for Malaysian politics? Joining me on the line to help us
00:27answer these questions, I have Shazwan Mustafa Kamal, who is the Director of the Government
00:32Affairs Consultancy, RINs & Partners. Shazwan, welcome to the show. We had nomination day over
00:39the weekend, so when you look at the final candidate lineup, I'm just wondering how you
00:43are interpreting who has been fielded where? What does the final candidate lineup tell you
00:50about some of the themes or the trends that's shaping this election?
00:57Hi, Melissa. Thanks for having me on the show. I think it is a state election with
01:04big stakes for all sides. People say that politics makes strange bedfellows, but people also say
01:11that bedfellow politics are never strange. It's only that way because the people who think
01:16they're strange have not watched the courtship that happens behind the scenes. So I think
01:21for Johor especially, we are seeing that on paper, it aims to test the foundations of the country's
01:29first genuine multi-coalition government on a federal level in recent times. But everyone
01:34knows that coalition has been one built out of compromise and opportunity. On one hand, you
01:41have Pakatan Harapan fighting against hope, the pun intended to restore the confidence of their support
01:48base, and in doing so, getting them to come out and support them in droves. On the other hand,
01:54you also have Barisan National UMNO using this state election as a bellwether to go it solo, reposition
02:02it as a dominant force that it once was. And I think ultimately pressure for the calling for GE on
02:08a federal
02:08level. You also have the opposition, Prakatan National, finding itself a bit of a weird situation, right? You know,
02:15they're contesting, I think, slightly over half of the seats. On paper, more than enough to govern, I guess,
02:22Johor on their own were they to win every seat. But I don't think that will happen. It's also Brasatu
02:28that's
02:28contesting, right? And I think the dynamic everyone's asking about is PAS actually making a
02:34proclamation that they're not supporting Brasatu, right? And they're actually backing Barisan
02:38National. Obviously, there have been rumors and whispers of, you know, negotiations happening,
02:44you know, to no one's surprise. So, we find ourselves in a state election whereby you have
02:50most of the major players, you know, haven't been partners one way or another for the past five years,
02:56right? So, whatever configurations that you have on a coalition level, it's not going to be something
02:59that you haven't seen before. I think what makes it more interesting is the inclusion of
03:04Bersama, right? Really hoping to test the disenchantment voters may have with both
03:10Pakatan Harapan and Barisan National. It will be interesting for Bersama to see how, just how much
03:18votes or kind of how much of the vote base that they claw away from these two coalitions.
03:23It remains to be seen whether they actually win any seats, but I think the data alone on that
03:29will be interesting to note as we prepare for general elections.
03:33Okay. Well, let's break down some of the themes that you've talked about. I'll start with the
03:38frenemies in Putrajaya. So, we have Pakatan Harapan Barisan National. Can they realistically compete in
03:46Johor while continuing to govern together in Putrajaya? Is this election essentially a referendum
03:54on which coalition will be the dominant force inside the Madani government?
03:59That's a very good question. I think Zahid Hamindi would like us to believe that you can have the
04:06cake and eat it too, right? They are fiercely going solo in Johor and Negeri, but I think he stated
04:14publicly several times that they will be steadfast and trustworthy partners to Pakatan on a federal
04:20level. They can, I think, but it will depend, I guess, on the results of the Johor State election.
04:27It will likely serve as a pressure point to either stay the course via the federal arrangement they have,
04:33or for Anwar to, you know, bite the bullet and call for elections.
04:39The configurations, dynamics impacting the Johor State elections will, I think, give some direction
04:48for all the parties involved as to whether it will, whether the federal agreement, right, will stand.
04:55But what's clear is that even if it does stand, right, it is on tether hooks, right, it's on a
05:02lifeline
05:02of its own. Ultimately, all good things come to an end and a general election must happen, right,
05:07so it's just a matter of when. Okay, so layer that on top of Perikatan National's decision to contest
05:15fewer seats and passes explicit support for UMNO. Is Muafakat National in the works again?
05:27I think there are many, I think there are many names to what essentially is a strategic alliance
05:34between PAS and UMNO. I think it's a tactical and strategic one. For Perikatan National, Johor
05:42for a large part is always considered a Bersatu stronghold given the fact of its roots there.
05:47And I think given the dynamics surrounding Bersatu's relationships with Parti Bawasan
05:52Negara and by extension PAS, it's telling that PAS is telling its members to not support,
05:58you know, Bersatu in these seats, right. So it's a situation whereby Perikatan National,
06:04you know, does contest in Johor, but ultimately it is Bersatu contesting on its own, right.
06:12Perikatan National or PAS, you know, telling its machinery to support Barisan National essentially makes it
06:19a much more straightforward fight in several seats. And I think the idea is this will allow UMNO to
06:27regain the Malay vote, I think more convincingly. Whether or not that will, you know, work out in
06:34UMNO's favour remains to be seen. But obviously there are, I think, different thinking or, you know,
06:40different thought processes with regards to the election. I think there have been many analysis over
06:46the past few weeks drawing to the fact that, you know, the results of the November, the results of
06:52the 2022 state election, which favoured UMNO massively, happened with some caveats, right. And I think
06:58there were comparisons made to general elections, right, and the kind of vote swings that happened
07:05there. I think voter turnout will be crucial, right. The need on Pakatan Harapan, especially,
07:14to address voter apathy will be key in the coming weeks, right. So if I were, if I were a
07:20betting
07:20person and betting man, I would, you know, pay close attention to kind of the campaign speeches.
07:26What exactly are the changes that you are, you know, proposing just because at the end of the day,
07:31on a federal level, you both, you know, either Pakatan or Barisan National, you both agreed on the same
07:37things, right. So it's a bit of a weird situation, I think. But it will be interesting to see how
07:42they, I think,
07:45attempt to separate, right, state versus federal.
07:50Okay. What about Bersama? You mentioned it a bit earlier, the newest variable in this election.
07:55How do you see the significance of Bersama's participation? Could they influence outcomes of
08:04this election without actually winning many seats themselves and votes splitting and the like? And
08:14they're all competing for similar Pakatan leaning seats.
08:19Yeah, I mean, I think definitely very interesting variable and one to look out for.
08:25On paper, the idea is that Bersama could eat into Pakatan Harapan support base, right. And I think,
08:33especially with the targeted demographic, I think you're looking at, I think they're targeting more,
08:38you know, youth voters, working adults, right, particularly probably those that will have to
08:44travel from Singapore back to Johor to vote. And the idea is, you've seen various configurations of
08:50both coalitions and it hasn't worked out for you in the way you expected. Why not give Bersama a chance?
08:55I don't think winning is success for them, right. Data from the electoral debut in terms of voting
09:03patterns, right, will be interesting to see because it is an indication of the demographic that perhaps
09:11they need to focus on in, you know, the other state elections or even the federal elections, right.
09:17So I think planting their flag, establishing a baseline of who they are as an identity for the
09:23party is key in this state election, right. And I think they're well aware of this, which is why
09:28even the seats that they're targeting are very specific, right. But I think, you know, in the event that
09:35they do win a few seats, that will also bring about another interesting dynamic. If we do have a
09:41situation whereby you need a kingmaker to decide on what that government looks like. Right. And we have
09:46Negeri Semilan voting soon after Johor. How much do you think the results of the Johor elections could
09:54shape the narratives and the campaigning that we will see there? I mean, it depends. I think whoever wins
10:01Johor will get a moral boost needed and that will be injected in Negeri Semilan, right. And that will,
10:09I think, perhaps to some extent, shape some narratives. If UMNO were to win, obviously, convincingly,
10:17they use that as an argument to say that, you know, we're back in the driver's seat. UMNO has never
10:23been
10:23comfortable with playing, you know, second fiddle or being the B player in an A team, right. And we're back,
10:30right. And I think that's what they've been trying to say, right. Judging by their moves. But Negeri Semilan
10:35is also different because Negeri Semilan was jointly run by two separate political corporations, right.
10:42PH and BN. And that's an arrangement mirrored at the federal level. It's not so much as Johor. Johor has
10:47been
10:48largely UMNO dominant, right. Bit weird, right. You don't really have, technically on paper, you don't
10:55have an opposition in Johor, just because, I mean, you do, but technically the opposition lawmakers are also
11:00part of your parties in the federal government. So different model, right. I think the stakes are going to be
11:06slightly more different. I believe, should there be tensions and fissures that, you know, make its way in Johor,
11:13right. That, you know, for instance, the attacks against both coalitions to become more prominent,
11:20I expect they will, that will give, I think, the further parties need to kind of, you know, speak more
11:26freely. And I suspect they will do in Negeri, right. But again, stakes are different. I think demographic,
11:34maybe some similarities, but I think different in terms of, I think there are questions on Negeri Semilan as a
11:40state as opposed to Johor with regards to the importance it plays in terms of the economy,
11:45right. And I think that's something that should be focused on. Okay. Well, okay. Final few minutes
11:50that we have left. Tell us what you're watching out for most closely in the next two weeks. We've just
11:57kicked off the campaign period, but what are you going to be watching out for, Shazwan? I think
12:03there are definitely a few things that are interesting. I, you know, I would be watching out for kind of
12:09the campaigns, the issues and themes that are sort of brought about by the different candidates,
12:16whether there are any like specific state level themes versus national, right. I'm particularly
12:20interested to see how they unpack or they help they separate the dynamics between the federal and the
12:25state, um, or whether the issues are merely localized, right. Then, and how then the candidate choices would
12:33make more sense, right. Because you take a candidate that's, you know, well-versed with local issues.
12:37I look at the trauma numbers as well, the turnouts, especially amongst the youth or those that are
12:43undecided to, to, to kind of see where it swings. It's going to be, I think a bit difficult to
12:49call.
12:50And I, I suspect, um, in terms of numbers, you might see that I think happen, uh, you know,
12:56people will come in in a slightly higher numbers closer to the date, but definitely going to be a
13:00closely watch election. Um, yeah, I mean, and I think also kind of how Harapan positions itself,
13:09uh, I think particularly important to me as well, just because, you know, you're basically going to
13:18campaign on reforms, reforms you once promised reforms that you had an opportunity to kind of
13:25expand on. Some people might say they succeeded given, given their limitations. Some people say
13:31they failed, but it will be good to see how they position themselves.
13:35All right. Shazan, thank you so much for speaking to me. Shazan and Mustafa Kamal, they're from RINs and
13:39Partners, wrapping up this episode of Consider This. I'm Melissa Adres, signing off for the evening.
13:44Thank you so much for watching and good night.
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