- 2 days ago
- #considerthis
The candidates for the Johor state elections are now set, and campaigning has officially begun. Johor voters now face a contest that pits allies in Putrajaya against one another, with implications that extend well beyond the state itself. So what will determine the outcome of the Johor states elections, and what will it reveal about the balance of power within Malaysian politics? On this episode of #ConsiderThis Melisa Idris speaks with political analyst Dr Bridget Welsh, Honorary Research Associate with the Asia Research Institute at University of Nottingham Malaysia.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:10Hello and good evening. I'm Melissa Idris. Welcome to Consider This. This is the show
00:14where we want you to consider and then we consider what you know of the news of the day.
00:18The candidates for the Johor state elections are now set and campaigning proper has begun.
00:24Johor voters now face a contest between that pits allies in Putrajaya against one another
00:31and the implications for these elections will extend well beyond the state itself. So what
00:38will determine the outcome of the Johor state elections and what will it reveal about power
00:43dynamics within Malaysian politics? Joining me on the show to help us think this through,
00:49I have political analyst Dr Bridget Welsh with me. She's an honorary research associate with the
00:55Asia Research Institute at University of Nottingham, Malaysia. Bridget, welcome back to the show. It's
01:00good to have you on. Let's take a look at the nominations that were announced over the weekend.
01:04There seems to be quite a number of three and four cornered fights and I'm quite curious about
01:09the vote splitting that could inevitably happen. Would that change electoral dynamics? I'm curious
01:17to know who you think will benefit the most from this crowded field.
01:23Great question. 172 candidates. You know, I have a piece that looks at these issues in terms of
01:28rejuvenation of parties, the issues of inclusion, gender inclusion in the candidates. Not so great,
01:34Melissa. Also issues associated with the kind of the dynamics of local can of who was rewarded by
01:41getting the seat back and who wasn't in terms of incumbency. But the split voting will be very
01:45important. And I think it's going to be important in particular for smaller parties that like Muda and
01:52Persama in the urban seats. So one of the hot seats that I look at is Putriwangsa. And Putriwangsa,
01:58of course, when you have a splitting of the vote, you're really going to see a dynamic that it's play.
02:04And that's because it's a multi-corner fight. You know, we see also a multi-corner fight in places
02:11that are like Tiram, which is also another hot seat in the in the JB area. And I think that
02:18those are
02:18things to watch because what it does is it tests how the parties are able to manage their core and
02:23then how the new parties that are coming in manage the swing vote in that circumstances. And, you know,
02:29the irony about the splits is that they're a product of party splits, right? So I think it's these two
02:34things that are coming together.
02:36Okay, so we'll talk about some of the new parties in a bit. But I'm curious to know,
02:40turnout, what was your sense about how much turnout is going to shape the results of these elections and
02:48the sentiments of voters at the moment? Are they keen to go out there and cast their ballots?
02:54Ah, good questions. First of all, turnout is going to be critical in deciding this election.
03:00For Pakatan Harapan, they want their traditional voters to come back, especially those that are
03:04outside of Johor. Most people talk about them being in Singapore, but many, many Johorians live across
03:09Malaysia. And that determines whether or not they'll come back. They didn't do that during COVID.
03:15That led to a BN landslide. Now we see a situation where they're hoping that their voters will,
03:20the traditional core voters will come back. But what we're seeing on the ground is that the PH's
03:25traditional core voters are really, there's a degree of unhappiness. And that has an impact in
03:32whether or not they want to vote at all. And I think we see this particularly among Chinese voters,
03:37but not only that, right? And so there's a, but it's not the sense of what I call the sama
03:43phenomenon,
03:43that they're all the same, you know, so that as a consequence that they don't really feel that by voting,
03:49they make that much of a difference. And then this is coupled with the fact that the landscape
03:54in Malaysia has changed, you know, so who you vote for may not be the government that you get.
03:59But in the case of Johor, and I think this is important, is that because the parties are running
04:04solo and what we see is a situation where you're really going to have more direct impact between
04:10what your vote is and what your outcome is. So it will matter because there isn't the sense that
04:15these alliances will have to happen like in places like Negrisimbulon by comparison.
04:19So I think these factors are on the ground. And then the voters are a bit fatigued with politics.
04:25You know, there's a sense of just kind of, they're tired of, of the fact that there's a lot of
04:30promises
04:31and the conditions on the ground are really challenging for everybody for survival, for prices and others.
04:37So we'll see what that number is going to be. And so turnout matters for whom?
04:43So for PN, it matters of who they bring in their, their mobilize their base. PH also wants to mobilize
04:49their base. And so it's not just the overall number, it's about which of the coalitions is able to bring
04:54back their voters. And I think what we're going to see is less turnout at this point. But as the
05:00campaign
05:00is heating up, we may see that change. But for now, I think the turnout advantage still works slightly
05:08with BN. Okay. And the new parties, let's talk about Bersama, which is making its debut in the
05:13Johor elections, contesting largely in PH-leaning urban constituencies. Do you think they could
05:21materially affect results? And Muda now, no longer a harapan ally, could that also, could they, could
05:29both parties appeal to Harapan's traditional supporters?
05:33So I think, you know, Bersama, I, I, I joke and say it's perpetua. You know, I think what we
05:39see is
05:39a situation where they're, they're, they're dividing the, the, the base, right. And I think they're
05:45by going after the seats that are actually where they're traditionally have a PH support, it's definitely
05:53a strategy of trying to appeal. And that is what Bersama is doing in the sense that there is a
05:58sense of division. But it's also Bersama is branding itself as a reform party. So it knows
06:03that that's the constituency that it has to win over. And so Johor is a test of that. And their
06:10campaign is a bit fundamentally different. It's much more about a new type of branding, positioning
06:16themselves, as well as using the social media to a higher degree than we see than the dependence of
06:26that on other parties, because they don't have machinery to the same degree. Now, where will it
06:31make a difference? And some of those close contests I talked about before, where, where turnout
06:35matters, where you have educated older voters that were traditionally PH voters saying, okay, it's time for
06:43something new, embracing that. For Muda, I think Muda is also, they're contesting in four seats.
06:49They're going in seats that are highly competitive, they're also having split contests. I think that
06:55they will struggle to try to, to bring in their core supporters and bring in younger voters because the
07:02younger voters are highly undecided overall, right. You know, many people aren't engaged with politics,
07:08and that's part of also what's shaping turnout. But Muda gives more of a chance in the split contests.
07:13And of course, they've also branded themselves as being more reform oriented, and they've been very
07:18critical of the lack of reforms. In some ways, Muda has done that even more so because they haven't
07:24been out of government, as opposed to Brasama's leadership were part of the government up until
07:29recently. So it, they'll be interesting to watch. And I think this is an evolution, right. So what's
07:36interesting about both Brasama and Muda, Muda is focused a bit more on kind of deliverables and
07:41seats. Brasama and service. Brasama is more about trying to shift the terrain to focus on policy and,
07:49and more technocratic expertise. So these are really important and interesting developments for the
07:55system, but it is also adding to the fragmentation. And that fragmentation really has, gives a lot of
08:01choice. There's a positive thing that for voters, but at the same juncture, it does also add to a
08:06little bit of the confusion. So there's a lack of clarity about what the situation is going to be on
08:10the outcome. Right. Well, speaking about the evolution of democracy in Malaysia, do you think that
08:15in the Johor scenario that it's becoming a much more candidate-centered election? I'm just wondering about
08:23many of the, particularly with the new parties, first time candidates, the first time are contesting in
08:29elections. Do you think candidate quality will matter more than partisan affiliation at this point?
08:36I'm smiling because I just wrote this this morning in my piece that I hope to have out either today
08:41or tomorrow. But the fact is, is that the candidate factor is much more important because it's a
08:46question of who you trust, right? So before you trusted the parties, now you trust the candidate
08:51because that's somebody you know, somebody who's in your community, someone you actually can see and
08:57assess their performance or assess their character. And so the candidate does matter. It mattered a lot
09:02more. It mattered a lot in a place like Saba because it's highly personalized. The cabinet, the candidate
09:07is very much about making a connection between that and government. But in the case of Johor, the candidate
09:13has become important because they're looking to say, hey, is this the person the best person for the job?
09:18And I think what we see in Johor is a sense of looking at competence, looking at the sense of
09:26character and the caliber of the candidates that are being chosen. So what we see is where some parties
09:31have put in parachute candidates, this is going to really not help them very well. But where we see
09:36candidates that are actually, you know, very strongly rooted, we can, that gives them an advantage because
09:44they know who they are. And we can see, you know, for example, let's take BN's 56 candidates they've
09:50chosen. A large number of the incumbents, and they had, I think there are 30 of them have incumbency
09:58in BN. What they've done is that I've noticed that many of the candidates are people who are candidates
10:03that have seemed to perform well in their respective kawasan. So for example, in a place like Bulukase,
10:09for example, we see a situation where this is a dynamic of a candidate that's popular,
10:17works the ground in Tanjung Surat, the same thing, very popular, especially among young people.
10:23And so this has this particular dynamic. And we can also see that for the other parties, such as
10:34Pakatan Harpan, you know, they've been able to put in a lot of new candidates, because they are now,
10:40you know, it's not, it's a solo situation. But they've moved some people around, and they're hoping
10:45that, for example, by putting a member of parliament, that that will have the character and the bill to
10:50pull up, you know, as we see in Bhattapahat area, right? And so this is a, these contests are very
10:56interesting to watch, to see how the candidate dynamic works. And sometimes they'll be, you know,
11:02it'll be harder, right? Well, if that person is relatively new, and I think that is the case
11:06also for many of the Brasato candidates, the candidate that they are actually, they might be
11:10from there, but perhaps they see expected, the difference of Bukit Kepong in the north,
11:16we're going to see a situation where the candidate issues start to
11:23be less important for places for Brasato and PAS. Although rights, what's happening with that
11:30particular dynamic is we definitely see a split in that particular coalition, and how that's
11:37happening on the ground. Well, I would be remiss if I didn't bring up Brasato National and that
11:42split. So what do you make of PN's decision to contest fewer seats than they did in the last
11:47elections? And what do you make of this pass, which controls PN, of course, is asking its voters to vote
11:54for UMNO in the seats that are not contesting? Well, you know, it's a campaign, so it's politics.
12:00I think what, you know, so there are three things to highlight. Number one, I think for PAS voters,
12:09and for PN national voters, there's a lot of confusion along the base. I mean, you know,
12:14do you support the Brasato candidate? Do you not, right? I think, you know, it would seem that almost
12:18PAS doesn't want Brasato to win. We also see a situation where, you know, there is a sense of
12:29a dynamic where they seem to be playing a national game at the local level, all right? And that, I
12:35think, you know, raises questions. And we can ask whether or not the intent is to actually hurt
12:42BN in Johor by actually putting that out, or is it seem to help it, okay? Because it is kind
12:49of
12:49appealing and trying to support on their Malay electorate. You know, I think that the second
12:55big issue is whether or not this is a kind of overture. You know, people say that this is a
13:00gift
13:00to BN. I think this is a gift to PH, because what it does is it actually really increases the
13:07the salience of this issue for non-Malay voters. And so I think, you know, sometimes gifts can
13:14backfire electorally. Brilliant. Bridget, thank you so much for being on the show with me today. I
13:19really appreciate you taking time to speak to us. And I'm looking forward to more of your,
13:23reading more of your analysis on the Johor State elections as the campaigning progresses.
13:27That's political analyst, Dr. Bridget Welsh, and I'm going to take a quick break,
13:31and we'll be back with more on this in just a few minutes. Stay tuned to consider this.
13:37I'll see you next time.
Comments