- 2 days ago
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 15/07/2026. The dry and hot weather for much of the UK has lasted for a long time. Subtle shifts will lead to tweaks to how warm it is, the dry weather looks set to last for quite a while longer. Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Alex Burkill, trying to hunt out any rain.
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00:00It's been so incredibly dry and hot recently and so in this 10-day trend I'm on the hunt for
00:06some
00:07rain. When is it going to return? Well let's start off looking at this probability plot in case you've
00:12not seen it before. We're looking at the next two weeks and the different colours indicate the most
00:17likely pressure setup that we'll have around the UK. The deep reds going with this high pressure
00:22sitting just to the north of us and you can see for the next well week if not more that
00:28looks set
00:29to be the most dominant pattern and with high pressure sitting just to the north well we'd
00:33stick with the largely dry weather. Then through towards the very end of this 10-day period there
00:40are signs of something more changeable some more blues indicating that we could have lower pressure
00:47nearby but really it's not a case that that's a guarantee not at all it's really just that
00:52confidence decreases as you would expect the further we look ahead so it just means there's a greater
00:57chance that we see something more changeable and just less likely for the high pressure to dominate
01:04as it is going to through much of the next week. We can look at that in a slightly different
01:08way
01:09on this chart here it's a Hofmoller. If you've not seen it before I'll try and explain what it shows
01:14and we're going through time from top to bottom. This is the past, this is the future below this black
01:21horizontal line and the UK is here on this cross really that's because we're looking from west to
01:27east and the different colors indicating the pressure pattern the orange is showing where we've
01:32had high pressure and where we're forecasting high pressure so we can see looking back in time the high
01:37pressure that brought the exceptional heat during late June for the UK here and then higher pressure
01:43through large chunks of July so far which have brought heatwave conditions temperatures in excess of 30 Celsius
01:48through most days. Then looking ahead and whilst we are likely to see the high pressure currently around us
01:55waning and drifting a bit away towards the west for a little while for a couple of days
02:00as we go through, well I'm hiding the axis, but as we go through later into next week
02:07signs that it could return and push back in from the west but towards the very end of the week
02:13Friday, Saturday next week, the 25th, that's when we could start to see it waning away and that's when
02:20we could see something more changeable. So there are signs that we could see the high pressure clearing
02:25and some wetter weather but it's not a guarantee and it's going to take quite a while to do so.
02:31But let's look at what we have currently over us and well the jet stream is way to the north
02:37of us.
02:37We have high pressure sitting just to the north of the UK and this is important, the position of the
02:43high
02:43because yes it's bringing lots of settled weather but it is also bringing a bit of an easterly flow
02:48so that's dragged in some low cloud from the North Sea through many days but it's also brought some
02:53very warm air or hot air at times. Now that high pressure is going to wane and ease but then
02:59we end up
03:00with high pressure sitting to the northwest of us as we go into this weekend and what that will then
03:05allow
03:05is for that jet stream to push down from the north and so we'll see a slight shift in our
03:10wind direction
03:11we'll get a bit more of a northerly flow coming through and that's going to lead to most places
03:15not everywhere but most places seeing a drop in their temperatures. We can look at that in a slightly
03:21different way if we look at our trajectory so what I have here we're looking at where the air in
03:26the
03:261000 meters closest to the surface where it's come from in the preceding few days and for this one I've
03:33picked London and this is where the air for today has been coming from so this Wednesday and what we
03:39can see if we follow the tracks and the different colors are indicating different heights where the
03:44air ends up and so the purples are near the surface and the yellows are 1000 meters up and what
03:49we can
03:50see is the air currently coming towards London is wrapping around from the Atlantic going to the north of
03:55the UK over Scandinavia and then coming back from an easterly direction picking up some of the heat
04:01across the near continent it has been very hot here heat wave conditions over parts of France for
04:07example and then coming towards the UK and so it is relatively warm air going through a slightly
04:13colder period but then hitting into some of this hotter air before coming towards the UK and also worth
04:19highlighting we can see it in this chart here the air is actually sinking a little bit as it comes
04:24towards us and it's that process of sinking that leads to the air being compressed and leads to the
04:28temperature of the air also rising and that's why temperatures at the moment are on the hot side but
04:34if we look at the same chart but this time looking at the air that's coming towards London for this
04:39Sunday and well it paints a very different picture with that jet stream piling down from the north
04:44we're instead going to be getting our air from a much cooler colder direction and then it's coming
04:48just directly down on that northerly so it doesn't really have the chance to heat up the same
04:52and the air isn't sinking as much as it comes towards us as well so it's not warming up for
04:58that reason now the change isn't going to be that drastic because there's still going to be plenty
05:02of sunny weather around but nonetheless for many it is going to feel a little bit fresher another
05:08reason why it's going to feel a little bit fresher is because well I mentioned that at the moment
05:12we're tapping into some of that hot air across parts of Europe but the heat wave the exceptional heat
05:18over parts of western Europe at the moment that's edging its way further southwards so instead of
05:23affecting mainly France it's pushing into eastern parts of Spain more into northern parts of Africa
05:28through the weekends so we're going to feel less of the influence of this hot air as well because
05:33that's edging further away but let's look at the details for each day I'll run through this this is
05:38the 10-day trend don't want to go into too much detail but let's try and find where there will
05:42be a bit
05:43of rain Thursday well it's a sort of rinse and repeat day compared to today really there could be some
05:48low
05:48cloud first of all but a lot of that will burn away into the afternoon so largely sunny for many
05:54of us
05:54and again temperatures are just about getting into the low 30s it could quite easily be the 12th day
06:01where we see somewhere in the UK having temperatures in excess of 30 Celsius depends on if we actually do
06:06that today we haven't at the time of recording but temperatures are still rising still down the eastern
06:11side a little bit fresher temperatures high teens low 20s that kind of thing later on Thursday there is
06:17the potential that we could see one or two showers developing in the southwest whether or not they
06:22develop bit uncertain but just worth highlighting that and then we start to see some low cloud drifting
06:28in from the North Sea like we have done through some recent nights looking ahead to Friday and the
06:33potential as we get a bit more of a northerly potential for a few outbreaks of rain affecting mainly
06:38eastern parts of Scotland but rain really is very limited through this 10-day period otherwise it's
06:44looking largely dry for many of us lots of sunshine again with that northerly and that slight shift in
06:50our wind direction temperatures down ever so slightly I still think we'll get to 28 or 29 30 is not
06:57out of
06:57the question but it could well be depending what's happened on Wednesday and Thursday it could well be
07:01the first day for quite a while when nowhere in the UK has exceeded 30 Celsius notice actually with
07:08that slight shift in wind direction Edinburgh is starting to see temperatures creeping up it's been a little
07:12cool here because of that easterly that's coming in and has been dragging in some low cloud and that
07:18breeze from the North Sea so actually some eastern northeastern areas will start to see temperatures
07:22rising through this weekend more on that in a second later on Friday we do need to watch out for
07:28the
07:28potential for a few showers to develop across some southern southeastern parts and if they do well there
07:34could be a rumble of thunder mixed in with them as well but with showers with any downpours that we
07:40see
07:40with those that's not the sort of rain that we need to help alleviate the ongoing issues from how dry
07:46it's been short bursts of intense rain well they don't bring a huge amount of relief into Saturday
07:52and we have more of that northerly coming in now so a few outbreaks of rain that quite likely across
07:57parts of Scotland further south dry largely sunny and temperatures yes down compared to Thursday Friday
08:03for many places in the south but still very warm in the sunshine if not hot really in many people's
08:10mind still technically heat wave conditions for some places particularly towards the southwest and
08:15notice I highlighted Edinburgh earlier but yes temperatures here creeping up a little bit higher
08:19as well so 22 possibly 23 Celsius a few outbreaks of rain may just about clip some northy coastal parts
08:26through the day and into the evening on Saturday but yes most places stay dry then on Sunday outbreaks
08:32of rain coming in from the north they don't look especially heavy but it could be a bit damp at
08:37times across
08:38northern parts of Scotland in particular they will arrive through the morning and continue into
08:43the afternoon elsewhere it's largely dry one or two showers maybe in the southwest but yes largely dry
08:48again lots of sunshine temperatures again creeping down for most places mid-20s in the south really at
08:54highest but again in the north of parts of Edinburgh for example just highlighting it again
08:59temperatures could get into the low to mid-20s here so a little bit higher than they have been
09:05recently more showery rain coming down from the north through Sunday evening elsewhere most places
09:11staying largely dry now I did say we're on the hunt for some rain so really we need to look
09:18at how that
09:19high pressure that we have dominating our weather is going to break down and in order to get an idea
09:24of
09:25that let's look the other side of the Atlantic over eastern parts of the US at the moment we have
09:30some
09:30hot conditions and with that then we're likely to see some severe convection some intense thundery
09:35downpours developing and when that happens well that has the potential to develop an area of low
09:41pressure so through this weekend early part of next week we could see this area of low pressure
09:45developing coming off the eastern side of the US and then making its way over the Atlantic and that
09:51could then influence the high pressure that's to the west of the UK it's this high pressure that's going
09:56to dominate really through much of next week but this area of low pressure is likely to come it's come
10:02across and start to weaken this high pressure a little bit but because this high is so well established
10:09it's not going to uh well it's unlikely to make a huge dent in it if anything it will probably
10:14just nudge
10:15it a bit further south allowing for a system to come over the north to topple in and then that
10:20could bring
10:21something more changeable more unsettled into at least northern parts through the latter stages of
10:26next week the weekend so the 25th 26th of July that kind of time frame so it's still a way
10:32off and
10:32confidence that far ahead well not especially high but that's one possibility that's the most likely
10:37scenario really let's look at next week then in a bit more detail and high pressure is still most likely
10:44to be firmly in control most days here's the most likely setup for Monday and I've put the rainfall
10:50anomaly the orange is showing it's likely to be significantly drier than average for much of the
10:55UK this coming Monday high pressure likely to sit to the west of us I've got the second and third
11:00most
11:00likely setups here they're fairly similar still high pressure nearby and the percentage chance of those
11:04much lower 86 cents so that's pretty high confidence for this high pressure sitting just to the west of
11:10us similar picture for this Tuesday the percentage chances drop down as you would expect it's a day
11:15further ahead but worth highlighting the second and third most likely setup still going with the idea
11:20of generally dry and also high pressure firmly in control just where it's sitting that's the detail
11:26slightly changes by Wednesday perhaps it's in the high waning a little bit towards the southwest and
11:31clearing a little bit but still generally dry and worth mentioning that the second most likely setup
11:37still has that high pressure well and truly across the UK so not overly confident that that high is going
11:44to
11:44clear a little bit Thursday is quite similar still high pressure nearby but perhaps a greater chance
11:49it will start to be clearing away and by Friday well the most likely setup has a sort of in
11:54between
11:54high and low pressure of sorts and so then that could start to allow for something more changeable
12:00to come through but we're only going with around a 15% chance of that so not particularly high at
12:04all
12:04and still the second most likely chance still only 12% so that's not particularly high but that does have
12:09high pressure coming in from the southwest extending from the azores so then we could stay mostly dry
12:15now let's look at similar charts but this time highlighting temperature changes and sticking with
12:21this high pressure idea for Monday good idea that we're going to stick with warmer air at least across
12:26western parts could be a bit fresher than average across the east kind of similar to what we've had
12:31through much of this week really similar story for Tuesday but by Wednesday that's when we start to
12:37see some differences warmer than average most likely but not a guaranteed potential that we could see
12:42if that high pressure drifts away towards the southwest could allow a bit of a fresher air to come in
12:47from the the north northwest and then by Thursday similar story but perhaps a greater chance
12:52of seeing that slightly fresher air coming in from the northwest and by Friday well again highlighting
12:57it's only a 15% chance but this does indicate that we could start to see something a little bit
13:02cooler
13:03not a guarantee by any means another way that we can look at our temperature trends let's take
13:09London for example and this is our plot looking at our temperatures for the next where are we at 10
13:15days
13:15and what you can see is temperatures are likely to dip down as I mentioned a little bit for this
13:20weekend with that bit more of a northerly flow coming in so temperatures dropping a little bit but then
13:24creeping back up through next week and by the end of the week that's a relatively large spread so not
13:30huge confidence but still potentially I mean it could get a bit hotter again or it could be a little
13:35bit cooler by the end of the week let's look at Edinburgh though I've highlighted it a couple of times
13:40because the plot is very different to London's really temperatures don't drop down here through the
13:46weekend they actually creep up a little bit and then they're likely to continue to creep it up
13:50through next week not really dropping down until the back end of next week so I just thought I'd
13:55bring that to your attention and then in the interest of impartiality here's Belfast Leeds and
14:01Cardiff their plots are relatively similar to London really temperatures quite high at the moment dropping
14:07down a little bit for the weekend and then a gradual rise a bit through next week so yeah temperatures
14:13staying around or probably above average for many places and as I said rainfall there's not really a
14:21huge amount of it to come I've tried to highlight when there will be some and try to pick out
14:27when
14:27we likely see a bit more of a change but really if you're hoping for some significant rain then
14:32unfortunately it's not great news I'll see you again soon bye bye