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Today’s Chanakya exit poll predicted a dramatic change in Bengal this time, projecting a clear lead for the BJP with 192+ seats and 100+ seats for the TMC.
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00:00Sayantan Ghosh, author of a recent good book, Battleground Bengal, joins me.
00:04Rahul Verma, fellow center for policy research, is with us.
00:08Neerja Chaudhary, senior journalist, with us.
00:10Ashutosh is also with us.
00:12Thank you all very much for joining us at this moment.
00:16Sayantan, you've been tracking Bengal in your book for quite a while now.
00:20You've given us a sense what we are seeing already playing out one day after the polling has ended.
00:25Another battle taking place in the heart of Kolkata.
00:28Meanwhile, our polls are showing a lot of voters, polar polls showing BJP perhaps having the edge.
00:37What's your sense?
00:38Is this a hyper-polarized election?
00:41Where is this now confrontation of the kind we are seeing playing out already, going to carry on?
00:50Hi, thank you.
00:51Thank you, Radhiv, for this opportunity.
00:54So, what is happening today?
00:56I think that's the politics of West Bengal.
00:59It's always fascinating.
01:01It's always on the ground.
01:03West Bengal's politics, everybody is trying to be a street fighter, wants to hit the street.
01:09Okay?
01:10You have seen Mr. Modi traveling on the grounds like this also.
01:16So, that is one part of the story.
01:18See, the other part of the story is what I think Mr. Gupta told you, that this time a very
01:25silent election is happening.
01:27On the ground, there is a silence within the voters.
01:31Okay?
01:31They are not sharing their opinion.
01:35Another thing is that I am not quite sure about the exit polls results because, see, I am not saying
01:46that BJP cannot win this election.
01:48Of course, anything can happen and BJP can win.
01:50But, the kind of result which the exit polls are showing, that means that the complete social engineering of West
02:00Bengal has completely shifted.
02:03Total Hindu consolidation.
02:04If these numbers are right of Chanakya and these other polls, there would be total Hindu consolidation.
02:09Am I correct or not?
02:11Yes.
02:12But, not only Hindu consolidation.
02:15When we are saying Hindu consolidation, we are including the women as well.
02:20In West Bengal, we have not seen any trend of, till now, that women are shifting their religions from the
02:29TMC led by Mamata Banerjee.
02:30So, that's why I am saying that it will change the social engineering.
02:36The Muslims, okay, if the BJP wins in this number, that means that consolidation of Muslims, which have been happening
02:462011 onwards,
02:49towards, they always vote in a block, that has also not happened.
02:53So, that means a matching split in the Muslim vote.
02:57We do not have that kind of sense on the ground as well.
03:01So, and also…
03:04So, you are saying this could be a tectonic shift, of course, if the BJP wins.
03:07All of this is a big if.
03:08I want to turn to you, Neerja Chaudhary, because the headline we put is,
03:12do or die battle for TMC.
03:13And we are already seeing it playing out at Netaji Stadium at the moment.
03:18TMC leaders have gone there, claiming that there are irregularities in the way ballot boxes are being stored.
03:24All of this suggests a nervousness.
03:26Mamata Banerjee also addressing nervousness, desperation.
03:30How do you see it?
03:31Yes, the body language of Mamata Banerjee since yesterday morning, the day of the second phase of polling.
03:37You know, normally she comes out in the afternoon, she came out in the morning, was supervising the poll arrangements
03:44in her constituency, Bhavanipur.
03:46So, that was a new element.
03:48And generally, you can see the tension, the tautness, the defensiveness in the TMC.
03:54And you're right, if the kind of turbulence we are seeing today, what happens on the day of counting?
04:01How does government formation take place?
04:04Will the results be accepted by either side, depending on whoever wins?
04:09It's a very, very highly polarized election, no doubt about it.
04:13Because the stakes, Rajdeep, as you know, are very, very high for both sides.
04:18Now, you know, Pradeep Gupta, we saw on the screen what he had to say.
04:24Pradeep Gupta is very cautious this time, vis-a-vis the Bengal exit polls.
04:30Valid that, you know, 70% of the people didn't talk to him.
04:34But he has taken the risk in Tamil Nadu.
04:37He's given a projection to Vijay, a newcomer, saying that he would lead by 100 seats.
04:44Now, that's taking high risk, which the other exit polls have not taken.
04:49But he's not prepared to take that risk in this Bengal, which shows that nobody really is confident of, you
04:56know, what Bengal is going to yield.
04:58And we've seen two parallel streams play out.
05:01One for Mamta, standing like a rock, between the BJP and what I call might have been the deluge to
05:08sweep away TNC.
05:09And on the other side, there is the aspirational Bengal that wants jobs, industry, a better life.
05:16And that's much more the middle class and in the urban centers.
05:21So, which is going to be, which will weigh heavier?
05:24That is the question.
05:26You know, that's a very good way to put it.
05:30Rahul Verma, as I said, Pradeep Gupta has now reached the stage where he says the voters are silent.
05:35Hence, I don't want to predict.
05:36Doesn't happen too often that pollsters, you know, throw their hands up and say we are not even putting out
05:41any numbers.
05:42Are you seeing this all as a product of a hyper-polarized society?
05:46It was left versus Mamta for years.
05:48Now it could be Mamta Banerjee versus BJP.
05:51And therefore, whatever happens on the 4th, that polarization still remains on the ground
05:57and could, unfortunately, lead to clashes of the kind that we are already seeing today.
06:03Absolutely.
06:03Rajdeep, three points.
06:05First, Bengal has always been difficult to poll.
06:09Anyone who does surveys and knows about surveys, Bengal has been a difficult state because of multiple reasons.
06:17Surveyors get arrested or sometimes picked by party people and then you have to call and get them out.
06:22So, this is not just Pradeep's story.
06:24I know different polling agencies.
06:26In fact, even academic surveys, which are done for writing journal papers and others, people do face problems.
06:32So, that's common in Bengal.
06:34Second point, which is to do with this hyper-polarization.
06:38And I think something is very different this time.
06:42And why I'm saying something is different?
06:44Because before this, the rules of elections were contested.
06:49This time, the rules of elections are being contested.
06:52Right?
06:52In some ways, Bengal resembles a state under a siege.
06:57You had 2,000 companies of police force, central paramilitary forces.
07:02500 are going to stay after even the counting has happened.
07:06Remember, and I said three days ago, 92% turnout worries me.
07:12Everyone thinks like at a certain level when there is too much turnout, that means that stake for every voter
07:20is so high that they want to participate.
07:22The reason they want to participate, not only because I will not be allowed to vote next time.
07:28But they think if other party, my opponent comes to power, I will be in severe trouble.
07:34Right?
07:35So, stakes have become so high that you've got this level of turnout.
07:39SIR happened everywhere.
07:41But the jump in turnout wasn't as much as you saw in Bengal.
07:46And so, you are absolutely right.
07:48I think what we are seeing today are worrying signs for what might happen on 4th or afterwards.
07:56You know, Ashutosh, taking off from what Rahul Verma says, there is a belief that either anti-incumbency has set
08:04in, as it did with the left in 2011.
08:07This could be 2011 redux with only the provisor that perhaps Mamata Banerjee has at least 60 to 70 seats
08:15where she is possibly difficult to beat.
08:18But otherwise, very similar, many would say, if the Chanakya poll holds or if some of the other polls hold,
08:24it shows that while the BJP is growing, it's still not completely been able to capture Bengal.
08:29Do you believe that that in itself, this uncertainty, is now playing out?
08:34Mamata Banerjee on the street, TMC Neta is on the street, Shuvendu Adhikari also on the street.
08:40That street politics is taking over once again in a very dangerous form.
08:45See, Rajiv, that's a traditional way of looking at Bengal election this time.
08:49In my opinion, Bengal is a new electoral, is a new laboratory in Indian electoral history.
08:57Something which is happening in Bengal has, I have never heard, never seen something like this.
09:03The issue is that 27 lakh people are denied their voting rights and Supreme Court has conquered with that decision
09:15of election commission.
09:16Despite Supreme Court itself saying that you have changed the rule, those whose name appeared in 2002 revision, they don't
09:26need to put any document.
09:29This is what comment has come from the Supreme Court itself.
09:32But 27 lakh people have been denied that right to exercise their right.
09:37The second issue is the IPAC, the election management team of TMC, director is arrested a few days before the
09:51election and he gets a bail on the very next day when the second round of the poll happens.
09:57And mind it, he was arrested by ED and anybody getting a bail under PMLA Act is the most difficult
10:06thing.
10:07But here, the ED lawyer is saying, no, no, I have no objection if you can give him a bail.
10:16No, you're suggesting, you're suggesting that the entire system in a sense, there has been no level playing field and
10:23the system has been gamed in a way, is your charge.
10:25That's a charge you're making.
10:27No, no, no, no.
10:28At the end of the day, the voters vote.
10:30At the end of the day, 93, 94% voters have voted.
10:34Rajdeep, how can we talk about the election when 27 lakh people are not allowed to vote?
10:41And then don't forget it, the proposer of, the proposer of Mamata Banerjee's house was raided by income tax.
10:50One of the police officers was with Mamata Banerjee has been raided.
10:55And if these are normal things, then I don't have to say anything.
11:00Now, and the elephant in the room is the SIR itself.
11:04Now, nobody exactly knows what happened in the different constituencies, how many people's names are deleted, and whether it is
11:10going to favor BJP, whether it is going to favor TMC.
11:14So, if we are applying our simple, normal, traditional, conventional tool, then certainly we can't reach to any conclusion.
11:22We can't say, as of now, I'm not in a position to say whether the BJP is winning or the
11:25TMC is winning.
11:27If we go by conventional wisdom, I can say that the TMC has an edge.
11:30But if you consider all these things which happen over there, I can say a vote.
11:35I take your point about 27 lakh voters.
11:38The fact that 27 lakh voters, many of whom seemingly are legitimate citizens, but have not been even able to
11:44approach the tribunal to vote, is a serious question.
11:47And the Supreme Court of this country will have to answer that.
11:49But, Shayanthan, what's your view?
11:51Is SIR still playing on the minds of people?
11:54The fact that so many people didn't get to vote, was that a cause of anxiety?
11:57Or was there a cause of people saying, no, we've got, finally, there are those who believe, particularly the middle
12:03classes, urban middle classes, who believe, no.
12:05We want, there were any number of people in Bengal who are not citizens of this country, were Ghuspetias.
12:12Has that Ghuspetia narrative worked or not on the ground?
12:18See, one thing which I would like to tell you, because Ashutosh was talking about it, if you check the
12:25tribunals, I'm not going into the exact records, but if the tribunal has attended 100 cases, then what has happened
12:35is 9 out of, sorry, 99 out of it have been cleared as being genuine voters.
12:43That's the trend right now, okay?
12:46And in the tribunal, which means that…
12:48So, you're saying a majority of the 27 lakh voters who were struck out were genuine?
12:52The tribunal cleared about 1,400 names, 99% those who are pro.
12:57Do you believe that's a factor?
12:58That that is one of the reasons?
13:00Because the way SIR has been conducted, it has further polarized society.
13:04Those who are left out and those who have been able to vote.
13:08Yes, exactly that's what I'm trying to say.
13:11I believe that the high turnout which we have seen is because of an emotional voting.
13:17Everybody in West Bengal, of course, the urban population and rural population, there are differences, but the emotion on the
13:28ground has warped.
13:30That, okay, I know a person whose genuine name has been deleted, okay?
13:36So, that emotional factor has worked.
13:40In solidarity, many people have voted.
13:43There is anxiety as well, okay?
13:45Everybody whose name is there in the voter list, they have worked hard to put their name.
13:52Because of the kind of legalities that made it so complex.
13:57I take your point, you make a good point.
14:00There's anxiety, you believe, among those who feel left out and including their relatives.
14:04But, Neerja Chaudhary, you've covered elections for many years.
14:07Have you therefore seen anything quite like this?
14:09The manner in which the West Bengal election has played out, Neerja, over the last couple of months.
14:16Mamata Banerjee went to the Supreme Court on the SIR issue.
14:20Now, today, you're seeing her leaders protesting outside an EVM strongroom.
14:25The BJP also has been out on the street.
14:29The Home Minister has spent much of the last month in West Bengal.
14:32You've got all these security forces out there.
14:34Have you seen anything quite like this?
14:37No, Rajdeep.
14:3891 lakh voters deleted, as they say.
14:43I don't remember that kind of a figure in any election, to be honest.
14:48And we don't know this 27 lakh that we are talking about.
14:52We don't know how it's going to pan out.
14:53But let me just tell you this, that the Muslims were more exercised by the SIR and the deletions than
15:03the Hindus.
15:03And Hindus were also exercised.
15:05Those whose families and loved ones and friends had been subjected to harassment, standing in the queues, at the end
15:13of it not getting justice.
15:14That is going to make a difference.
15:16But I found the Hindus considering it as one more inconvenience, you know, not that kind of a strong opposition
15:24to SIR as one might have seen.
15:27But on silence that, you know, you talked about earlier, I think silence of the voter, I found also women,
15:38those who were voting for change, starting off by saying, you know, it's in God's hands.
15:45Or we will know on May 4.
15:47And if you scratch further, they would say, we are voting for change.
15:52I didn't hear people say I'm voting for BJP.
15:55That to me was very interesting.
15:57And I think the fear, those who were voting for TMC talked about it much more openly, the women.
16:03Those who were voting for change did not talk about it openly.
16:06So there was obviously a fear of the TMC workers or CADR.
16:12And last election, we remember when, you know, those who had voted were targeted.
16:17But it's also true that with the forces, central forces coming in on the polling day, that there may have
16:25been a greater reluctance to talk because people did not want to get caught in the firing line.
16:31On the one hand, the TMC card, and on the other hand, the central forces.
16:37So they will, it's possible 70%, you know, said we don't want to.
16:42Of course, those of us who are journalists sat with them for a long, long time, chatted them up, didn't
16:47ask for their names, promised not to take photographs, and then people opened up.
16:52Yes.
16:52But I suppose those who do the surveys, the exit polls don't have that kind of time.
16:57So you've seen about, you saw signs of change.
17:01I mean, this is the question that when you get such high voter turnout, Rahul, and we've discussed this earlier,
17:07high voter turnout in recent elections, Rahul, doesn't always mean anti-incumbency.
17:12But West Bengal could be different, given the fact that if there are these other factors that have played out
17:1815 years in power,
17:19or do you believe that this is an election where one side was pushing for change and BJP represented change,
17:27and Mamata Banerjee was playing the trope of Bengali Asmita of center versus Kolkata in the manner that she has
17:35in the past?
17:38Two different points. First one is, I think…
17:41Meanwhile, I just want to stop you for a moment.
17:44The poll body in West Bengal has rejected the charges that there was any foul play.
17:49The EC has told all parties about the ballot segregation.
17:52The BJP claims that Mamata Banerjee is making excuses for an impending poll defeat.
17:57Mamata Banerjee is claiming this is yet another example, she says, of the center trying to influence the verdict there.
18:04Now, the BJP has also gone and staged a protest at the Netaji Stadium.
18:08But go ahead very quickly, Rahul.
18:11So, first thing, you know, if some of the projections about BJP coming to power in Bengal holds true,
18:18I think it's happening because what you can call as setting up of a perfect storm.
18:24I think the SIR process and then this heavy security created some kind of sort of like sense of relief
18:35among BJP workers and voters.
18:37Second, I think there is some level of anti-incumbency.
18:41Many reporters documented it.
18:43In fact, like welfare architecture might be also under crack.
18:46Your own reporter showed that women saying that we just don't want 1,500.
18:52We want more jobs.
18:53So, there is also aspiration.
18:55Third, I think BJP ran a much better campaign compared to 2021.
19:01They made lesser mistakes or less mistakes compared to.
19:05So, you can only get a number of like BJP touching or crossing majority mark.
19:10I don't believe 200 plus kind of a number can only happen when all of these things coming together.
19:16And we also need to remember that power in Bengal does not change peacefully.
19:24We don't have to be like, let's not forget history so easily that this is something happening first time.
19:32Just read from January to May 2011 pages and you will know the number of people who had died when
19:39the power changed from left to Trinamul Congress.
19:43And go back to 1972 election in Bengal.
19:48Hegemonic parties don't lose silently.
19:52Right.
19:52Right.
19:53So, let's not like create as if this is…
19:56Bengal is a unique state.
19:58The power in 50 years has changed only once.
20:01And many called it in recent times a party state because the Trinamul Congress had sort of dominated all parts
20:07of civil society.
20:08But Ashutosh, therefore, if this is if at all the BJP does win West Bengal on Monday,
20:18would it suggest to you that this is the ultimate citadel broken?
20:23All that remains there is Kerala possibly deep south.
20:26Otherwise, the BJP's imprint will truly, the Hindutva imprint will be all over the country.
20:31And this is barely two years after the party struggled and did not get a majority in the Lok Sabha.
20:36See, Rajdeep, I'll come to that conclusion and analysis of that only on the 4th.
20:41If the BJP wins, why I should not say that the TMC can win?
20:44See, the BJP can win in only one condition.
20:47That condition is if you take 2021 CSDS data as a benchmark, that data very clearly shows that almost 55
20:56% of the Hindus are mobilized in favor of the BJP.
21:00But the catch is this 55% is not enough for the BJP to win elections.
21:05BJP has to cross the mark of 60 to 63% votes, Hindu voters vote, and only then they can
21:12win.
21:12Because there are the two M, which is solidly with the TMC, that one is the Muslim.
21:17The last time they voted almost 75%.
21:19If we go by CSDS data, at this time that number 75 is going up.
21:24There's no doubt about it in my mind.
21:26The second is that the women voters.
21:29Last time the difference was 50% and 37%.
21:31Now, the issue is very simple.
21:35In 2021, Mamata Banerjee did not have any welfare scheme, especially for the women.
21:43She came out with the Lakshmi Bhandar Yojana.
21:45She came out with the Rupa Shri Yojana.
21:47She came out with the Kanya Shri Yojana.
21:48And all these welfare must have benefited more than 1.5 crore women.
21:58You know, the aspirations can keep rising.
22:00Aspirations can keep rising.
22:01You want jobs, you want much more.
22:03But if...
22:03But if...
22:04Rajdeep, Rajdeep, Rajdeep, Rajdeep, that's okay.
22:06That's okay.
22:07But if Mamata was getting 50% of the women's sort in 2021,
22:13when there was no welfare scheme targeting only the women,
22:16now there are the specific...
22:18The Lakshmi Bhandar Yojana, 1500, and for SCSD, 1700.
22:22And then for the Kanyashri, 25,000 for the marriage.
22:25And then the educational support that has benefited almost more than a crore.
22:32Now, the issue is, if the welfare scheme is any benchmark,
22:37if on the basis of welfare scheme, BBJP can win in Haryana, Madhya Pradesh,
22:41and Maharashtra, and in Jharkhand Hemisphere, why not Mamata Benerji?
22:47Well, because, you know, we'll wait and see.
22:49I'm not going to...
22:50You know, I have decided that exit polls cannot become the basis of knowing who's won and who's lost.
22:55I'm just trying to understand for our audiences also,
22:58why this election in West Bengal has become so critical.
23:01One of it, of course, is that if that citadel falls,
23:04it's a big blow to a major regional party.
23:07It's a big blow to the India Alliance.
23:09And it could further see a splintering of that alliance as well.
23:12And it makes the BJP more and more of a dominant party.
23:16I appreciate my guests joining us on this show and giving us your...
23:19How many times the obituary of the India Alliance has been written?
23:22No, I'm not writing anyone's obituary.
23:24The obituary of India Alliance is written.
23:26The time has come to...
23:27I think we have to rethink about it.
23:29Okay.
23:29We'll wait and see.
23:30We'll wait and see what happens on the 4th.
23:32But I just thank my guests.
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