00:09Good evening, warm welcome. You are watching our rolling coverage on all the numbers that
00:13are coming in where exit polls are concerned. Mariami and Akshita together will be number
00:19crunching just a short while back before we've gotten into that break. Today's Chanakya came
00:24up with the numbers of Kerala and the numbers of Kerala, as per today's Chanakya, seem to
00:30quare the pitch in Kerala and suddenly making that election so much more interesting. Dead
00:34heat predicted by today's Chanakya between the LDF and the UDF, Maria. And it's a very
00:41close contest. I would actually believe it because Pinaray Vijayan, who created history
00:46just five years ago, will not be letting go of power so easily. UDF has made the effort
00:54but LDF certainly is very much on the ticket because, you know, 81-year-old has that recall
01:01value 40 years after that, you know, alternating of power which has happened in Kerala. This
01:08is the man who actually said history. No, but can I just bring the focus to Tamil Nadu
01:13briefly? Please, go ahead. Because today's Chanakya, and I think there's so much curiosity
01:16after Access My India numbers. Let's just quickly put out the numbers of today's Chanakya on
01:21Tamil Nadu. Do they have a surprise in store? What's their prediction for TV?
01:24Here are the numbers on your screens. The DMK is the single largest party according to
01:29the exit poll prediction of today's Chanakya at 125. Give or take 11 seats is essentially
01:36the margin that they are building. Now, the second party is TVK. TVK at 63 and then the
01:43AIA-DMK Plus at 45. So another exit poll, Preeti and Maria, that's predicting that the AIA-DMK
01:50is down to the number three position that essentially this is a DMK versus TVK battle.
01:56While Access gave 98 to 120, they're saying 63, 11 give or take.
02:01Right. And the gap between the TVK and the DMK is 9% of vote. AIA-DMK at 27, DMK
02:11at 39% and
02:12TVK at 30%. So what you are sensing… We're going to just correct, Maria. We're going to
02:17correct the numbers that are right now on our television screen. I think we're going to…
02:2163 and 45 with us today. So that's actually 30%. 30%. That's not seat share, that's vote share.
02:26I think we've got the wrong number there. So we've mixed the two up. So we apologize. We're
02:28going to fix that. We're going to fix that. We're going to fix that. We're going to fix that right
02:31away.
02:31But overall… Let's give… The overall, Preeti, the gap between the DMK and the TVK is 9%. Yeah.
02:38Which is not the same as Access My India, which is saying 35% to both the parties. Once again,
02:43before we get into more numbers, I want to go back to Akshita. Akshita, would you want to quickly
02:47take our viewers through what is exactly predicted by today's Chanakya. Vote share, seat share,
02:52Tamil Nadu. Okay. So vote share first. The DMK is at 39%. DMK plus. This is with their allies. 39%.
03:00The TVK at 30%. Access My India said 35% for both. So mark the difference there. Today's Chanakya says
03:0639% for DMK plus. TVK at 30%. The AIA DMK is 3% behind the TVK at 27%. So
03:15you've got today's Chanakya
03:16predicting a slightly better tally for, in fact, the AIA DMK plus of 27%. What does that look like
03:23in numbers? DMK plus is the single largest party. DMK is the single largest party. Even the alliance
03:29at 125. So they've crossed the majority mark of 118. TVK at 63. So they're in the 60s range,
03:36according to today's Chanakya. About 30 less than what Pradeep Gupta has predicted in his exit poll.
03:42The AIA DMK down to number 3 position at 45, Preeti. So those are the numbers. 125, 63, 45.
03:50So you have the DMK as per today's Chanakya, Maria, where it's forming the government. Even if the AIA DMK
03:58and the TVK come together, as per this number, they will not be able to challenge DMK as per these
04:03numbers.
04:04So everyone in Tamil Nadu and the DMK, there is Mr. Sarwana when you need him. If you are looking
04:09at these numbers, there you have it. This is another set of numbers completely different from what
04:14Pradeep Gupta projected yesterday. Once again, I would hope you will take these numbers as well with,
04:20if not a pinch, but a fistful of salt, Maria. And I am looking at the margin of error as
04:26far as
04:26this pollster is concerned is plus minus 3. So TVK and AIA DMK are plus minus 3, are at 30%,
04:3527%. That's the number.
04:36But most of the pollsters seem to be in agreement that it is AIA DMK, which is party number 3
04:42in Tamil Nadu.
04:44And TVK, which is making a debut here, a party which started only in February of 2024, is actually, has
04:52reached as the primary challenger, or should be seen as the prime opponent to MK, MK Stalin.
04:59This is how TVK pitched the battle also, Maria. They said this is a battle between DMK and TVK, that
05:04this is just between these two parties.
05:07The AIA DMK constantly said, not the case. This is always about the two Dravidian majors. There's no other party
05:13that can come in and create an impact right on debut.
05:16Vijay, at least based on the exit poll numbers of Access My India and today's Chanakya, seems to be changing
05:22that particular narrative in Tamil Nadu.
05:24Look for Access My India, now there's that backing of one more exit poll, at least headed in their direction.
05:28But the punt of Access My India, he's hit it out of the park in terms of that projection.
05:32Because you still see a market difference there.
05:34It's a huge difference to project 63 and to project a baseline of 98 to then...
05:40But Pradeep did say that, you know, you can give a margin of error of about 20. So he said,
05:44bring it down to 70 and that makes it closer.
05:46But then there would be a margin of error in this as well.
05:48Which is 11, which is 11 plus 11 minus. So they take it up to 74 in some circumstances.
05:53Some are saying that this could possibly be a realistic number than what, you know, looks like on ground.
05:58But one thing is very clear, that what is unfolding in Tamil Nadu is nothing short of a phenomenon right
06:05now, Akshita.
06:06It's unbelievable, nothing short of a phenomenon where the rise of Vijay and TVK is concerned.
06:11And I still remember, and I'll bring in Subhansi Raman.
06:14Subhansi Raman, I know you're going to say, let's wait for D-Day, 4th May, but I've had you so
06:18many times in my show earlier, sir.
06:20And most of the political analysts did not anticipate it. The conversations came down to there is no carder, there
06:27is no booth level penetration, how can you have fan clubs running, you know, your party?
06:32It just will not work. Clearly, none of that matters when a state has decided it wants change.
06:38Directionally, one thing is clear, Sumansi Raman, two big pollsters, directionally are bang on with placing TVK A ahead of
06:48AIDMK and over 60.
06:52Preeti, good luck, good luck to them. And this is good entertainment for the next three, four days.
06:57We can go on and discuss and say that, you know, Vijay is going to become chief minister, prime minister
07:02or whatever.
07:03But none of this seems to be found in any kind of logic. Look, let me ask you a simple
07:11question.
07:12The urban vote is where Vijay is stronger. Do we agree? All the pollsters agree that the urban vote is
07:19what Vijay is getting more of, right?
07:21But Subhansi Raman, when there is a wave, when there is emotions attached to your vote, then Arthamati falls by
07:28the wayside, sir. You know that better than I.
07:30One, one second, one second. If he is getting more of the urban vote.
07:37I think we've lost that connection with, it's Desimacy Raman.
07:41Sir, can you hear us? Can you repeat that point, please?
07:46No, no, I'm saying yesterday, when I asked Pradeep Gupta that question, he said it's 35% vote in urban
07:53areas and 33% in rural areas is what Vijay is getting, according to his poll.
07:58Hmm. Now, the DMK is getting a higher share in the rural areas.
08:02Now, what makes no sense is the DMK holds the bulk of the seats in the urban areas.
08:08If Vijay is doing fabulously well in the urban areas, the DMK is gaining seats.
08:12I mean, none of this makes sense.
08:14No, that's because I'll tell you why, Mr. Subhansi Raman.
08:16If you look at the region-wise breakdown that Pradeep has given us, at least based on his data, he
08:21suggests that the DMK is doing very well in Delta.
08:24He's suggesting they're doing well in Delta.
08:26And I think the reason you're saying such a big dent on AIA-DMK is also because of West Tamil
08:31Nadu where he says TVK, DMK and AIA-DMK, all three are suddenly players in the Congo belt.
08:37Okay, let me ask, can anybody list not 60 seats, list 10 seats that the TVK is winning?
08:46No, no, I know, this is the same question.
08:49The arithmetic doesn't work, Mr. Raman.
08:52But I think very clearly, Mr. Subhansi Raman, if you ask the people of Tamil Nadu also to name 10
08:57candidates of the TVK, they won't be able to.
08:59It's on one man's face, it's on one man's face.
09:03No, no, but...
09:04No, no, Mr. Subhansi Raman, I'll tell you what, okay, I haven't, I didn't even go to Tamil Nadu.
09:08You know, if you cut across and I'll tell you one thing, I was in West Bengal and I was
09:11questioned whether TVK is winning or Vijay is winning in West Bengal.
09:14Also, clearly, people are talking about Vijay.
09:17But whoever has gone on ground, Mr. Subhansi Raman, it's not about seats.
09:22There seems to be a solid support and sentiment in favor of Vijay.
09:29And Mr. Subhansi Raman, you acknowledged that.
09:31You know, I remember a month ago when you had said that not really, you know, I don't think Vijay
09:35will have an impact.
09:36Versus a week ago, you did say, look, there is a sizable impact of Vijay in Tamil Nadu.
09:45I think we're having a bit of a problem with his connection because he's on the road.
09:49But, you know, okay, you know...
09:51I was wearing areas, particularly in a...
09:53Does not have much of a presence outside the Chennai area and in the rural belt.
09:58I have never changed from this.
10:00It's not that I have said something else last time and now I'm changing or going back on it.
10:05I have said Vijay has a presence in and around Chennai, partly in and around Trichy,
10:10in and around Coimbatore, but certainly not in rural Tamil Nadu.
10:14And if he gets 30%, as this poll say, in rural Tamil Nadu, forget Pradeep Gupta's 35%,
10:22then a whole lot of us are going to be eating crow.
10:25So, let me tell you this, nobody in Tamil Nadu, nobody that I know of,
10:30actually expects 35% vote share for the TVK in rural Tamil Nadu.
10:35But it is difficult, and I understand Subhansi Raman, it is difficult for anyone.
10:39There is a distinction which has been made between Chanakya and Access My India,
10:43their sheer approach to this entire, you know, calculation.
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