- 3 months ago
Political developments intensify ahead of election counting day as parties respond to exit poll projections across West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00All right, let's begin with the latest news break that is coming in from West Bengal.
00:03Yesterday, you saw Mamata Banerjee, the incumbent chief minister, after the second phase ended, give multiple statements.
00:09Today, she has released a statement through a social media post from her party's handle, TMC,
00:16in which she practically states that TMC is forming the government in West Bengal and she signs off with Joy
00:22Bangla.
00:22Let's listen in to Mamata Banerjee, the incumbent chief minister.
00:26After all of this, also a game of optics, viewers, because the carder needs to be enthused.
00:31They need to keep energised, especially counting nearing on the 4th of May and where both level carder is concerned.
00:39You have to keep them on their toes and energised.
00:42And with the exit poll prediction, some of them giving BJP an edge, some putting BJP and the TMC neck
00:50-in-neck
00:50and only one or two giving the TMC numbers, which are ahead of the BJP.
00:56Obviously, optics important, Mamata Banerjee coming out in a message not just to the people of Bengal,
01:01but mostly directed to the carder of the TMC.
01:05Mamata, they're saying that the TMC will cross 226 seats.
01:09But here's what's interesting.
01:10All the exit poll numbers that are coming out, Mamata says it's a BJP conspiracy.
01:14That the BJP is dictating the numbers to pollsters and those are the numbers being released.
01:19But listen in to what Mamata said.
01:29Now, that BJP is a BSK.
01:31The BJP is a struggle with the people of Michigan and the people of Nebraska are about to stop the
01:35work of women.
01:36This is a BJP relationship with the people of Arizona.
01:39They have a process of getting more of the people of Oklahoma.
01:40Look who says, I am going to bring them to a group of people.
01:45So, who am I going to bring them to a group of them?
01:46They are going to bring them to a group of people.
01:46Mrs. Shaddon Shiar Market
01:50के શांतोरा दितै અખीए તાमागार મરઆ શ્પએશिमिक
02:18Okay, let me bring in Tapas and Gupta for more details on this
02:22Tapas, you've got Mamata Banerjee dismissing all the exit poll numbers
02:26particularly those that are projecting a win for the BJP
02:30She's also, in fact, made it very clear that the TMC is 100% confident to offer a win
02:36You're seeing all this rhetoric, of course, by all political parties right now in Bengal
02:44Well, yes, absolutely
02:45See, Mamata Banerjee's speech today was imperative
02:48because given the present scenario that exists in Bengal
02:52and after the exit poll results had come in
02:55there were a lot of apprehensions on the Trinamul Congress camp
02:59that what exactly is happening
03:00and henceforth it was imperative that Mamata Banerjee comes out
03:04and delivers a message and that's exactly what she has done
03:07She has also set the benchmark that they would be crossing 226 for sure
03:12They could also reach 230, means she is indicating that Trinamul Congress is all set
03:17for a landslide victory
03:18She has also accused the BJP of trying to manipulate the numbers in the exit poll
03:24and not stopping there
03:25She even cautioned the Trinamul carders not to be at their ease
03:33because as far as the strong rooms are concerned, she have expressed her apprehension that there could be a possibility
03:40that the EVM machines can be changed by the BJP leadership
03:44Henceforth they should be absolutely on standby mode all through 24 hours
03:50Even the respective MLA candidates have been asked to be outside the strong room till the counting day
03:59and there should be a rotational duty of all the Trinamul Congress leaders and workers outside the strong room
04:05and she also made it very clear that on the day of poll counting
04:09she will be visiting her counting center
04:13that's here in Kolkata's Shakhawat Memorial School
04:15She will be present there
04:17So that is also something that we have never seen before
04:19Mamata Banerjee doesn't usually go to any counting center on the day of the election counting
04:25but this time around she have directed that she will be visiting the counting center
04:29it's very clear that she's sending across a message to the people at large of her party
04:35that as far as counting center is concerned
04:37it would be Shubhendu Dikari and Mamata Banerjee
04:40We'll track that very closely
04:41You know, while we're getting all the updates coming in from Bengal
04:44the other state we're closely tracking is that of Tamil Nadu
04:47where the Access My India exit poll has predicted
04:51that Vijay's party, TVK, will be the single largest party
04:55Let's put out a news break now coming in from Tamil Nadu
04:58All right, let's quickly cut across
04:59while we're keeping our eyes on the developments that are taking place
05:03in the state of West Bengal
05:04Let's quickly move on to the other set of news break
05:07that is filtering in from Tamil Nadu
05:10The focus now will shift
05:12because the campaigning is done
05:14the ballot boxes are sealed
05:15the focus now will be strongly on EVM and strong rooms there
05:19and there will be the focus of all political parties
05:24and to make sure that they have enough bench strength
05:27right outside the counting stations
05:30and that is why it seems Vijay has shared a key TVK huddle
05:34right ahead of counting day
05:36Vijay has instructed candidates to be at the counting center
05:39by 6am and be vigilant
05:41this Akshuta somewhere down the line
05:44you know, becomes all the more important
05:46if once again
05:48one is to take certain exit polls seriously
05:51especially Access My India
05:52which has projected Vijay
05:53if not kingmaker then king itself
05:56Absolutely
05:57you know, at this point
05:59Vijay, we're hearing from our sources at TVK
06:01extremely confident
06:02the numbers we're putting out
06:04as part of Access My India's exit poll
06:06Vijay reportedly believes
06:08that these are the numbers to stick by
06:09this is what the TVK will do
06:12and so he believes that
06:13the last phase
06:14which is when the counting happens
06:16ensuring that all of the TVK carder
06:19are in fact fully vigil
06:21that candidates are prepared
06:22that's part of the last stage of preps
06:25for what he believes
06:26is going to be a record-breaking win
06:28Pramod Madhav is joining us
06:30with more details on this as well
06:32Pramod, give us a sense of what's the mood really
06:35in the TVK camp currently
06:37you were at that meeting
06:38where Vijay was
06:39where he met with all the 233 candidates
06:41what was his message?
06:43The one thing is very certain
06:44until yesterday
06:46since Access My Paul
06:47and the discussion over Tamil Nadu
06:49was being done
06:50the entire mood of the state
06:51was completely different
06:52but right now
06:53with the numbers out
06:54and Access My Paul
06:55giving close to 120
06:56for TVK
06:58the mood has completely changed right now
06:59and that's what we could see
07:00on the ground there as well
07:01because there
07:02there was complete excitement
07:03and enthusiasm
07:04believing that
07:05you know
07:06that is a kind of number
07:07TVK has done very well
07:08in the state of Tamil Nadu
07:09as per Access My Paul
07:10and even Vijay
07:11who had called in
07:12all the candidates
07:13who had protested
07:14in 2026 elections
07:15he very clearly
07:16has instructed them
07:16to be on the counting centres
07:18by 6am in the morning
07:19as well
07:20because very clearly
07:20this time
07:21it's going to be
07:22a complete close call
07:23because it's going to be
07:24three kind of like
07:25three-way election
07:25which means
07:26the difference
07:27between a winner
07:28and a person
07:29who is not going to win
07:30in this particular election
07:31could be very very
07:32a thin margin
07:33so in this area
07:34he wants to be
07:34make sure
07:35very careful
07:36that the candidates
07:37are over there
07:37and in fact
07:38Nirmal Kumar
07:38who also went and met
07:39the chief election officer
07:41over there
07:41also requested
07:42that extra protection
07:43should be given
07:44for all the counting centres
07:45and that the postal ballots
07:46should be counted
07:47earlier itself
07:48and not be kept
07:49for the last
07:50so that way
07:50TVK wants to be prepared
07:52for all kind of
07:52events on 4th May
07:54Akshita
07:55All right
07:56Pramod
07:57continue to stay on
07:58with us
07:58let's shift
07:58from one set of news
07:59break to the other
08:00because whatever
08:00one might say
08:01you know
08:02exit polls
08:03have caused
08:04a bit of a flutter
08:05in political parties
08:06in Tamil Nadu
08:07you've had the TVK
08:08clearly enthused
08:09by a certain set
08:10of numbers
08:11by Access My India
08:12while most
08:13are projecting
08:14DMK
08:15as the front runner
08:16you also
08:16have now
08:17the chief minister
08:18of Tamil Nadu
08:20now holding
08:21a key meet
08:22with his
08:23close aides
08:24which is
08:25to discuss
08:26the various
08:26options
08:27that could be
08:28made available
08:29on the outcomes
08:30of 4th May
08:31So Chief Minister
08:33Stalin
08:33held a meeting
08:34with the senior
08:35most DMK
08:36leadership
08:37essentially
08:37what you're seeing
08:38in Tamil Nadu
08:39right now
08:39Priti
08:40is most of
08:40these parties
08:41seem to be
08:41coming together
08:42figuring out
08:43a plan B
08:43based on the
08:44exit poll numbers
08:45you're right
08:45that most of
08:46the exit polls
08:47have given
08:48DMK
08:48an edge
08:49but is that
08:50edge good enough
08:51they will
08:51most definitely
08:52looking at the
08:53exit poll numbers
08:54be the single
08:55largest party
08:55but is that
08:56good enough
08:56in a situation
08:57where you have
08:58a new element
09:00whose impact
09:01you've got
09:02varying numbers
09:03on
09:03Pramod Madhav
09:04is joining us
09:05with more details
09:05on this
09:06Pramod
09:07what's the mood
09:08of the DMK
09:08camp currently
09:09are they still
09:10as confident
09:10as they were
09:1124 hours ago
09:13well to put it
09:15very clearly
09:15just like I
09:16mentioned
09:17yes
09:17until yesterday
09:17the mood
09:18was completely
09:18different
09:19and every other
09:20survey
09:20just like you
09:20mentioned
09:21were actually
09:21favouring for
09:22DMK
09:22giving at least
09:23120 to 140
09:24that was a number
09:25that was predicted
09:26as a kind of a safe
09:27number
09:27because in Tamil Nadu
09:28you need
09:30118 to have
09:31the majority
09:31but post
09:32access my poll
09:33and post the
09:34kind of discussion
09:34we had
09:35things have
09:35become a little
09:37troublesome
09:37for everybody
09:38across the state
09:38of Tamil Nadu
09:39because it was
09:39a completely
09:40shocking number
09:41Vijay was actually
09:42given a kind of
09:42percentage between
09:4315 to 20
09:45percentage
09:45and also a number
09:46probably maximum
09:48between 25 to 45
09:49but imagine
09:49increasing it to
09:50120 and giving
09:51DMK a number
09:52up to 112
09:53as the maximum
09:54that has surely
09:55caused the kind
09:55of like ripples
09:56over there
09:56however DMK
09:57wants to make
09:57it very clear
09:58that other
09:59surveys are giving
09:59a different number
10:00and it's going
10:01to have a
10:01thumping majority
10:02but even after
10:02all this
10:03the chief minister
10:04has called in
10:05all this
10:05like you know
10:06senior leaders
10:06and such
10:07they had a meeting
10:07DMK calls it
10:08as a routine
10:09meeting
10:09but very clearly
10:10all sort of
10:11discussions
10:11has been done
10:11because we have
10:12another three days
10:13for counting
10:13to go ahead
10:14and DMK
10:15also wants
10:16to be prepared
10:16the important
10:17aspect is that
10:18like I said
10:18earlier
10:19the margin
10:20of victory
10:20could be
10:21very very
10:21less
10:21this time
10:22Preeti and
10:23Nakshita
10:23so everybody
10:24are concentrating
10:25to make sure
10:26that there is
10:27no any kind
10:27of margin
10:27of error
10:28and victories
10:29achieved in
10:30one way
10:30alright
10:31thanks very much
10:31Pramod for
10:32joining us
10:32with those
10:33details
10:33so with three
10:34days to go
10:34for the results
10:35you can see
10:36all of the
10:36parties kind
10:37of figuring out
10:38what they need
10:39to do
10:39in Tamil Nadu
10:40the exit poll
10:41numbers are all
10:41out
10:41and Preeti
10:42you know
10:42we were
10:43highlighting
10:43that while
10:45AccessMyIndia
10:45is giving out
10:46numbers
10:46very very
10:47different from
10:47the rest
10:48let's be fair
10:49and put it
10:49out as a
10:49poll of
10:50polls
10:50and get a
10:51sense
10:51of really
10:52what each
10:53pollster
10:53right now
10:54is predicting
10:55as far as
10:55Tamil Nadu
10:56goes
10:56so let's
10:57put that
10:57out
10:58on our
10:58screens
10:59we begin
10:59of course
10:59with AccessMyIndia
11:01which has
11:01actually said
11:02the TVK
11:03will be the
11:03single largest
11:04party
11:04at 98
11:04to 120
11:05the DMK
11:06at 92
11:07to 110
11:08and then the
11:08AI DMK
11:09in third
11:09place
11:1022 to 32
11:11and then you
11:11see there
11:12were varied
11:12differences in
11:13the other
11:13exit polls
11:14Preeti
11:14you know
11:14this is quite
11:15bizarre
11:15because this
11:16rarely happens
11:17because usually
11:18you will have
11:19you know
11:20agencies that
11:20at least get
11:21the direction
11:22right
11:22and this
11:22time
11:23it seems
11:24that each
11:25and every
11:25agency
11:26seems to be
11:26projecting
11:27Akshita
11:27completely
11:28different
11:28direction
11:29and you
11:30have at
11:30one end
11:31an AccessMyIndia
11:32who is
11:33practically saying
11:34that the
11:34single largest
11:34party in
11:35this election
11:36will be
11:36TVK
11:37and Vijay
11:38could be
11:38king
11:39if not
11:39kingmaker
11:40that's one
11:41part
11:41and then
11:41you have
11:42I'll just
11:42come to
11:43Preeti
11:43we've got
11:43Pradeep Gupta
11:44with us
11:44of AccessMyIndia
11:46Pradeep
11:47good evening
11:47Preeti
11:48do you want
11:48to first
11:48address the
11:49elephant in
11:49the room
11:50Bengal
11:50and what's
11:51happening
11:51on that
11:51front
11:52well
11:52Pradeep
11:53the elephant
11:53that is
11:53not in
11:54the room
11:54but yesterday
11:55you know
11:55let's speak
11:56about that
11:56because yesterday
11:57you did
11:57confirm to
11:58us
11:58Pradeep
11:59that there
11:59will be
12:00a huge
12:00possibility
12:01that you
12:01might not
12:02be giving
12:02numbers
12:03so why
12:04is it
12:05that AccessMyIndia
12:06Pradeep Gupta
12:07has chosen
12:08this time
12:09not to
12:09give numbers
12:12so
12:12so
12:13Pradeep Gupta
12:13at AccessMyIndia
12:15our methodology
12:15is very
12:16simple
12:17conduct
12:18face-to-face
12:19interview
12:19with representative
12:20sampling
12:21and in
12:22Bengal
12:23particularly
12:23we tried
12:25that
12:25last six
12:26days
12:27after the
12:28first phase
12:29of polling
12:29and we
12:31tried
12:31even
12:31today
12:32after the
12:33yesterday's
12:34polling for
12:34the second
12:35phase
12:35and we
12:36found that
12:3770 to
12:3880 percent
12:39people
12:40are not
12:40ready
12:41or not
12:42willing
12:42to talk
12:42to us
12:43under
12:43these
12:44circumstances
12:45our
12:47representativeness
12:47in sample
12:48is in a
12:49decade
12:49and hence
12:51we decided
12:52not to
12:53present
12:54any of
12:55the projections
12:56for the
12:56West Bengal
12:57election
12:58this time
12:58because we
12:59do not
13:00have that
13:00conviction
13:01in our
13:01findings
13:02whatever
13:03people we
13:03are able
13:04to speak
13:05to
13:05they do
13:06not
13:06represent
13:07the
13:07sample
13:08what we
13:08are aiming
13:09for
13:09but
13:11Pradeep
13:11many will
13:12say
13:12Pradeep
13:13Gupta
13:13Dargai
13:1421
13:14he was
13:16wrong
13:162024
13:17he was
13:18wrong
13:19this time
13:19he doesn't
13:20want to
13:20take a
13:20chance
13:21I'm
13:22giving you
13:22various
13:22scenarios
13:23Pradeep
13:23what's
13:23going on
13:24scenario
13:24number
13:24one
13:25Pradeep
13:25Gupta
13:25Dargai
13:26scenario
13:26number
13:27two
13:27TMC
13:27saying
13:28it was
13:29Pradeep
13:29Gupta's
13:30numbers
13:30were showing
13:31that TMC
13:32was ahead
13:33therefore now
13:34he's running
13:34scared
13:35because he
13:35feels
13:35if BJP
13:36won
13:36we'll
13:37again
13:37which one
13:38is it
13:39or the
13:39excuse
13:40that you're
13:41giving
13:41people are
13:42not talking
13:42this time
13:44there is
13:45no question
13:46of excuse
13:47Priti
13:48this is
13:48our
13:48professional
13:49work
13:50and
13:52excuses
13:53I mean
13:53mostly I
13:55say
13:55excuses
13:56are
13:56evidence
13:56of
13:57non
13:57performance
13:58which is
13:59definitely
13:59not the
14:00case
14:00here
14:00we are
14:01known
14:02for our
14:02bold
14:03predictions
14:04in the
14:04past
14:04and you
14:05know
14:05better
14:05than
14:06anybody
14:06else
14:07that
14:07there is
14:08no
14:08question
14:09of
14:09fear
14:09factor
14:10there is
14:12no
14:12question
14:13pole
14:13kubhih
14:14gullet
14:14ho
14:14saktay
14:14kubhih
14:15sahih
14:15ho
14:15saktay
14:29us
14:30tuk
14:30woh
14:31conviction
14:31nahi
14:32a
14:32jab
14:32lo
14:32paati
14:33na
14:33kare
14:33to
14:34phir
14:34hum
14:34kya
14:35kare
14:35jab
14:35log
14:35hi
14:36just
14:37one
14:38pradeep
14:39ji
14:39isi
14:39pere
14:40let me
14:40ask
14:40you
14:40one
14:41question
14:41you're
14:41saying
14:41koi
14:42question
14:42hi
14:42nai
14:42ho
14:43ta
14:43ke
14:43dhar
14:43gaya
14:43your
14:44team
14:44has
14:45been
14:45there
14:45for
14:45now
14:45on
14:46and
14:46off
14:46over
14:46a
14:47year
14:47what
14:49is
14:49the
14:49ground
14:50field
14:50ground
14:50sense
14:51kya
14:51hai
14:51pori
14:52bortan
14:52or
14:53continuity
15:00nombar
15:00dine
15:00me
15:01sani
15:01ho
15:01jay
15:01g
15:01you
15:03know
15:04prithi
15:04we
15:04never
15:05do
15:05the
15:05guessing
15:05work
15:06we
15:06purely
15:07go
15:08by
15:08our
15:08methodology
15:09our
15:11sands
15:11everybody
15:12else
15:12is
15:14punting
15:15sab
15:15or
15:16ka
15:16guess
15:16work
15:16tukka
15:17chal
15:17raha
15:17hai
15:19nai
15:19nai
15:20nai
15:20nai
15:20nai
15:20nai
15:21nai
15:21nai
15:21nai
15:21nai
15:21nai
15:21nai
15:21nai
15:21nai
15:27nai
15:27log
15:28better
15:28mucz
15:29she
15:29kama
15:29kert
15:29hong
15:30g
15:30us
15:30me
15:31koji
15:31sakt
15:31nai
15:31hai
15:31sas
15:32yad
15:32unko
15:32a
15:32chse
15:32se
15:32baat
15:33ki
15:33ho
15:33nai
15:33nai
15:33nai
15:34kuch
15:35nai
15:35comment
15:35kata
15:35lak
15:36me
15:36a
15:36a
15:36a
15:37a
15:37x
15:37sas
15:38mind
15:38yam
15:38a
15:38m
15:38that we have seen purely numbers and our sample size.
15:45We are known for that and that is precisely the reason why we are able to predict many
15:53elections, 74 out of 81 elections.
15:56You know, Akshita wants a question, but before I'll just ask you, Pradeep Ji, does this mean
15:59you are not predicting Bengal at all now, there's zero prediction.
16:04You have decided you are not giving any numbers at all, leave alone today, tomorrow, day
16:09after, no numbers.
16:10You have pulled back your resources from Bengal.
16:14Absolutely.
16:15Till today, they were working, but today we decided let's hold on to this and do not predict
16:21this time Bengal election.
16:23No, but I want to understand, Pradeep, from you, what's different, what's changed, that
16:27in 2021 you could go ahead and do an example and this time you couldn't.
16:32That's what, last time about 20 to 30 on air, your channel only, India Today only, I have
16:38said that on Rajdeep's show, about 20 to 30% people are not willing to talk to, but still
16:44we could talk to about 70% people and Rajdeep has pointed out that Pradeep, 20% is a huge
16:50number.
16:51How can you assure about this?
16:53I said, at least majority of people we could speak to, so let's do this.
16:59That's not the case this time, 70 to 80%, which is a very big sizable number.
17:05I mean, about two-thirds of the universe, more than two-thirds of the universe, if it's
17:10not talking, then no question, when I say guesswork, I am referring to based on this limited sample
17:17size we could speak to, there I don't want to speculate or do any kind of a guesswork.
17:23Pradeep, it's a huge claim that 80%, that means you are saying, you are speaking to 10 people,
17:30only two are telling you where they will be voting this time.
17:34You are saying eight are not saying anything at all.
17:36That's huge, Pradeep.
17:45In urban area, metro areas, city like Kolkata, only two, in rural area, three.
17:55So 70 to 80% people are not speaking out at all.
17:59I myself have visited Bengal, I myself have witnessed the situation, the moment I came
18:05to know that this is the situation, I said, let me come and try and do the need for it.
18:10Has the situation changed, Pradeep?
18:12I try and friend the people.
18:13Right.
18:13How has the situation changed?
18:15Because you've been there, your teams have been there off and on for over now a year.
18:20You've had arrests as well.
18:22Is it here?
18:22What is it?
18:23That people are all willing to speak.
18:25What are the reasons is what Rakshita is asking you.
18:27But your team has been there over a year.
18:29So what has changed?
18:30My question was, what has changed in the last two weeks that seemingly was different
18:37after the announcement of election, we have seen so much of a violence over there.
18:43Even the MP and minister and MLS has been manhandled.
18:47At times people have thrown stones to their car and it is very evident and quite evident
18:54both the party's workers are fighting to each other, going to the jail.
18:59In fact, as I told you, my five surveyors has been sent to jail a few months back in Damdam
19:06jail.
19:07And they spent about 21 days over there.
19:09And we have raised this to the Kolkata High Court.
19:14And Kolkata High Court has given verdict in our favor.
19:16However, you continue doing your work.
19:19You need not to worry.
19:20Despite of that, when we go there and try to do this, there are people in spectacle.
19:25And we, at that time, not now, at that time, the karkatas of different political party used
19:33to target our people.
19:35Okay, but Pradeep Ji, you are saying that three in the rural, two in the urban is speaking.
19:40Eight are not in the urban and about seven out of ten are not in the rural.
19:45What is the ground sense?
19:47There has to be, after being there, for now over a year with your teams there, there is
19:52a certain ground sense that you get, Pradeep Ji, which is different from 2021.
19:57No, no, Priti, I don't want to speculate again, I am telling you, but all one thing is sure,
20:04this time, the change, whatever I can see that is that, BJP is doing better than last
20:12time, but how better or how far it is going to be as far as the number of tele and
20:18the seats,
20:19that I do not have the answer for.
20:21Will they reach the halfway mark, Pradeep Ji?
20:22Do you see the BJP reaching the halfway mark?
20:26No, I can't comment on that.
20:29I have no idea about it.
20:31Okay.
20:32Pradeep, since you are making that distinction that you have been on ground for so long and
20:37still there is a great degree of caution right now, and you have said that, you know, your
20:41team members have been targeted and attacked, but you are also someone who is used to, or
20:47perhaps has understood that these are the challenges in a number of states.
20:51So, that's my next question, that when you approach them, was it a clear no or was it
20:58like, I do not want to say?
21:03Clear no as far as the election goes.
21:14But Pradeep Ji, you are people and your team.
21:16You know, this is journalistic inquisition and I think Maria and I and Akshita would want
21:20to ask you that.
21:21You know, your team is trained to take out which side a person is leaning on without asking
21:27a direct question on the election, on what issues are important to them.
21:31Like, for example, you know, when we were on ground, we faced the same issue.
21:35We asked and you are better at it.
21:37If they say, Mahila security issue hai, if they say hai, then you know that this time BJP
21:41is resonating more with that, you know, voter.
21:45And if you ask, Bengali, Asmita, kitana bada hai, bohot bada hai, and they speak in Bengali,
21:50you know, this one is with the TMC.
21:53Even that was not possible?
21:56Yes, that's what I am saying precisely, Priti.
21:59That they are not speaking.
22:00They are not opening their mouth.
22:02They are simply saying, swari, swari, swari.
22:06Okay.
22:06So that's a clear sorry?
22:08They are able to speak.
22:09Yeah, clear sorry card.
22:11So provided, as you are saying, our people are trained like this.
22:15We never go and ask straight back.
22:16No, we never do that.
22:19There are tactics to ask these questions.
22:22But provided a subject they speak.
22:26And on your long career, you have seen several elections.
22:31You have predicted multiple elections.
22:33Would you say that this is unprecedented in the sense that this has never happened?
22:38And that's why you have, because I look at your statement,
22:42you're saying that you have talked about how many months you have spent,
22:46how many of your, you know, observers and researchers were on the ground.
22:51And despite that, you have gone ahead and not released the data.
22:56That's right, Maria.
22:58Because this is not the first time, even I am telling you, in 2017,
23:02also my people were sent to jail in Jalpaigudi jail.
23:06There they spent about 17 days, 17 days.
23:09So this is something used to us.
23:11And across the country, even after every two to three days during the Lok Sabha election,
23:18people face this kind of manhandling and problem at the ground.
23:21But that is all manageable.
23:23There are some elements, some elements, but this is across the state.
23:27This is the situation.
23:28And this has arisen particularly.
23:31There was a clear message sent out throughout the West Bengal, the state of West Bengal,
23:38saying that anybody comes, don't say anything.
23:42Otherwise, your vote or name will be...
23:46Who sent this message?
23:49I mean, I don't know who has sent.
23:50The political party has spread this message.
23:53Don't reveal or say any political this thing.
23:56Otherwise, your vote will be strike out.
23:58Because SIR was also happening at the same time.
24:01So there was a sense.
24:02You are right there, Pradeep.
24:02That's what, that's what, that's what.
24:04No, but Pradeep, the question.
24:05This SIR has spread this more, this thing, serious.
24:07Pradeep, can I, can I, you know, I'll, I have a message from a syphologist.
24:11I won't name the syphologist.
24:13And basically he's saying, Pradeep ne itna bada punt kiya hai ek state mein.
24:17He's risking it all in one state.
24:19Doosre mein kehra hai ki mein toh, I will not even risk it.
24:21I'm going to bar out of it.
24:23Ek pa hi bhot khail liya hai, doosre pe nahi kareenge kuch.
24:51It can never be done on over a phone or online.
24:54I always, even in US election, we have done the same thing.
24:58You can imagine the kind of difficulty we must have faced over there.
25:02And we predicted the Trump victory very accurately.
25:06Can I talk about Tamil Nadu?
25:08Yes, please.
25:09Pradeep, I want to know, 24 hours after you put out those numbers, what's the reaction been like?
25:14You know, my phone was ringing off the hook.
25:15I'm sure it was 20 times worse for you.
25:18Yes, I have continuously.
25:20In fact, if I'm not able to receive the phone, my office landlines are buzzing and people are saying,
25:26how can you do this?
25:28How can you do that?
25:29Tell me this.
25:30Tell me that.
25:31So much noise is already on.
25:34So tell me, what are the chances that TVK, because at 35%, they have a higher seat conversion, that it
25:44could go upwards of 120?
25:48Upward of 20, meaning in that case, in that scenario, in that possibility, DMK vote share will reduce drastically.
25:59Meaning when I say predict 35%, meaning it is always plus minus 2%.
26:03We mentioned that.
26:05It means one party can go up to 33%.
26:08In that scenario, one party will score about 37%.
26:12So 4% is a good sizable number.
26:15If that is going to happen, if it is TVK who is 37%, then the number will go beyond 120.
26:26Okay.
26:27Pradeep, you know, there's been a bit of chatter on social media about your numbers.
26:32I'm, you know, saying a bit, but technically it's a lot more.
26:34Rakshita is getting trolled, Pradeep, for your numbers.
26:37No, no, no, no, not at all.
26:38We ignore all of that.
26:39But Pradeep, there's a couple of questions here on the data you've put out, and that's particularly on the caste
26:45details.
26:46I don't know if you've seen this, but a lot of people have been questioning the data that's been put
26:50out by Access My India
26:51about the percentage of Brahmins, about the percentage of Gaunders, the percentage of Tevars that you've mentioned,
26:57and where those figures came from.
27:01Yes.
27:01So these are the figures we could talk to people.
27:04That is the sample percentage which is mentioned over there.
27:07And we, none of us knows because caste census is not yet out.
27:13This is the number and I'll tell you what is the methodology and what is the process in the market
27:18research.
27:19There are demography.
27:21So there are two kinds of demography.
27:24One is the unique and second is the common.
27:26What is the unique demography?
27:28The geography, rural, urban, gender, and age group.
27:32These are the three which is the unique.
27:34What is the common one?
27:36Education, income, and occupation.
27:38That can be common.
27:39And caste group.
27:40That can be common.
27:41So in this scenario, what is important to maintain in a research?
27:46The unique demography.
27:48And this time all age group wise, even election commission has released the data.
27:54Whatever the number of electors are there.
27:56What is their construct?
27:58The weights of each and every age group.
28:00And accordingly, we have maintained that and also the male and female which is the gender.
28:06And that is where in the end of, in someone's face, what is your caste group, right?
28:12So whoever comes in the process, we talk to them.
28:16And we try and make it sensible.
28:18Before we let you go, just two questions.
28:21One I'll ask and then I think Akshita you also want one.
28:23But I'll come back to Bengal.
28:25Because you said what is seemingly on the ground, Pradeep.
28:28You said BJP is doing better than the last time.
28:31Now, a lot of people are hanging on to BJP.
28:34Pradeep Gupta is saying BJP is doing better.
28:36How much better?
28:37You're not commenting.
28:38Can you tell us in terms of regions, where is BJP doing better as per you than the last time?
28:46Priti, I do not have that.
28:47Just the sense you asked me because I also visited there.
28:52This much I can say.
28:53You asked me.
28:54You visited what you found.
28:55What is your sense?
28:56This much I tell.
28:57Don't.
28:57What did your people find on ground?
28:59Which region?
29:00Is the BJP actually doing better this time?
29:03Nothing.
29:04Nothing of that sort, Priti.
29:05I'm not going to say anything.
29:07Because that is not adequate enough.
29:09Those people are not representative enough as I just now explained the Aksitadi sampling process.
29:18Because it is called a cell.
29:19I'll tell you.
29:20You also must understand this.
29:22What is cell?
29:23Cell size.
29:23It is called cell size.
29:24So, if there are six age groups.
29:28To report one particular age group, let's say 20 to 29.
29:32There has to be adequate number in this cell to report this cell.
29:36Okay.
29:36Tell me one thing then.
29:38I hear you Prati.
29:40Which is the set which is not speaking maximum?
29:43Is the woman not speaking maximum?
29:45Is it the youth?
29:46Women.
29:46Of course women.
29:47So, you're saying maximum no's are coming from women.
29:51Youth is always outspoken.
29:52Youth is speaking.
29:54Women is not speaking.
29:55Women is not speaking.
29:56So, you're saying mostly the chunk is women and women possibly will define this election.
30:00And the women are not speaking.
30:02Correct?
30:03Yes.
30:04Okay.
30:04I'm handing it back to you.
30:06I'm so sorry but I know you have to go but I just have one quick question for you.
30:09Only the women mostly.
30:10Mostly.
30:11Not only women.
30:12Most women.
30:13Okay.
30:14Okay.
30:14Just quickly on Tamil Nadu Pradeep.
30:16One of the issues that I saw on the ground is that there's a lot of Vijay euphoria.
30:20And one of the questions constantly being asked is whether Access My India was swept up by that Vijay euphoria.
30:24And that's what's led to these numbers.
30:29This morning, I try and revalidate my poll by speaking to two ladies at Chennai.
30:39I asked what is their age?
30:4145 years.
30:42What is their occupation?
30:43She's a domestic help at one of my friends.
30:46And I asked her whom you have voted.
30:49She said, TVK Vijay.
30:50I said, do you know what is the symbol?
30:53She said, yes.
30:54Visil is the symbol.
30:55Then I said, how do you know that Visil is the symbol?
30:58She said, my daughter, she's in Tanjavur.
31:01She's 28 years of age.
31:02And she called me and explained me the symbol and where in the order symbol is there on the machine.
31:10And she made me, you know, understand the whom to vote and how to vote.
31:17This is one.
31:17Okay.
31:18Second, I spoke to one of my friend colleagues, seven year daughter, seven year daughter, asking her father, this time
31:26you must vote to the Vijay.
31:28Otherwise, I will not speak to you.
31:30This is the kind of phenomenon and stardom on the ground.
31:34And it's not limited to.
31:36So it is the youth which is driving the rest of the family.
31:39That is becoming evident.
31:41I saw this too.
31:42Yeah, I agree with that.
31:43Pradeep, just one more, which is when yesterday Preeti had asked you about the margin of error.
31:47You said from 98 to 120, maybe to 70.
31:50Can you give us an exact margin of error here?
31:53Because there is many questions about whether Vijay would settle at a 60 and not a 98 to 120.
32:00I am telling you about 20 seats can go here and there either side.
32:04I mean, this is what I can say from my range.
32:06The mean would be 100 according to that.
32:07Okay.
32:08So, yeah.
32:08So, it could be 70 also is essentially the suggestion also from Pradeep.
32:12Yeah.
32:12Okay, Pradeep, we are going to let you go.
32:14Thank you so much.
32:15Pradeep, thank you.
32:16You've basically, like I said, a big punt in Tamil Nadu.
32:19You've decided not to, you know, put your hat in in West Bengal.
32:24But you've been burnt before.
32:25We leave it at that.
32:26But all eyes will be on you, Pradeep, where Tamil Nadu is concerned and how Tamil Nadu really goes.
32:32Because you're the only outlier there, isn't he, Maria?
32:34Absolutely.
32:34I think that's going to be the big takeaway then.
32:37No, as you look at the difference.
32:38I think when we were doing poll of polls, we were looking at all of those numbers and seeing the
32:43very difference.
32:44Clearly, the way TVK in one side is 98 to 120, the other goes up to 3 to 6.
32:50But then if it is about change, then change is always decisive.
32:54I agree.
32:55You can never quantify it.
32:57You can never quantify it.
32:59And that's why, Preeti, what Kashi Ram said doesn't apply in the context of South India.
33:04My point is not that.
33:05My point is I understand if there's change.
33:06How is it that Pradeep is picking up such a massive change and somebody is picking up…
33:10Because it's very difficult.
33:11You know, no change at all.
33:12And somebody is picking up AIDMK.
33:13I'll tell you what.
33:14That's because they have sample size.
33:16We as journalists go and speak to at best 50 to 100 people.
33:20No, I'm just saying there are 10.
33:21There are 10 right now.
33:22There are about 10 exit polls and all of them have very different predictions.
33:27Methodology.
33:27Exactly.
33:28Methodology.
33:29I think it's also because any data you had before doesn't count.
33:32Any support base that you had before doesn't count.
33:34Any vote bank that you had before doesn't count.
33:36But you at least get the direction right.
33:37Mostly you have seen in the past, even when there is a new player, you get the direction right.
33:41I think the problem with Tamil Nadu is it's also so vast and so varied region-wise.
33:46We have a Vijay supporter joining us.
33:48We've got Muralidar and Shivalingam with us.
33:50Yes, perhaps we can take that question to him.
33:53Pradeep Gupta today, after 24 hours almost after making that prediction, which has completely,
34:01which is being seen and debated and discussed everywhere, not just Tamil Nadu, across the country,
34:07is reiterating that he's sticking by it and he is convinced that that is going to be the number.
34:13What is the mood in TVK right now?
34:17How confident are you that it's going to be upwards of 120?
34:20Yeah, that's for you, Muralidar.
34:22Yes.
34:23Okay.
34:24The only fear I think the party has is that MLA should not get pushed.
34:29So, there will be…
34:31You suspect that's going to happen then?
34:34It might happen because the numbers which are given by Mr. Gupta is like, you know, a couple of people
34:40have not slept last night, you know, including Mr. Stalin.
34:44And so, seeing those figures, there is always a threat.
34:48And we know how much muzzle power when it comes to money these parties have.
34:56So, I think that's a different fear.
34:57No, but that's a test too for Vijay.
35:01Mr. Ramakrishnan Rajagopal, retired IAS officer, spokesperson of the Tamil Nadu BJP is also with us.
35:06Mr. Rajagopal, the worst possible news of the Access My India exit poll is for the NDA, for the AIADMK
35:13plus their allies in Tamil Nadu.
35:15Mr. Rajagopal, you've been pushed to number three position, sir.
35:18At distant numbers.
35:19Mr. Rajagopal, a poor number three.
35:24Well, I don't think it's the right forecast because A, I don't think they have covered Tamil Nadu extensively and
35:36I was just listening to Mr. Gupta
35:39and he talked about two ladies in Chennai responding to his call and telling him as to why they voted
35:46for the TBK.
35:48It looks like it's quite superficial in the sense, you know, somebody says, my daughter asked me to vote.
35:54And in any case, Chennai doesn't represent Tamil Nadu.
35:57In Chennai, I do agree that Vijay has a much better following, a much bigger following than the rest of
36:02the state.
36:03So, it's quite possible that Vijay will score quite a few seats in Chennai.
36:08But it's doubtful that Vijay will be able to repeat that performance in the rest of the state, particularly in
36:15the rural areas,
36:16where the hold of the ADMK and also the DMK is reasonably strong.
36:21You know, what seems to be working here is…
36:23My understanding is that…
36:24That the collapse of AIA DMK is coming at the cost of…
36:32You know, his growth is at the cost of your collapse.
36:35But the entire anti-incumbency is also moving away from AIA DMK towards a new player.
36:43And the people of Tamil Nadu are looking at this Vijay magic.
36:47Would you then accept that the leadership is an issue here?
36:53The AIA DMK leadership is an issue which doesn't really inspire the youth or even the women to give them
37:01a chance.
37:03Well, if you ask me as to whether the ADMK could have done it better, I would definitely say yes.
37:10The ADMK could have thought of a much better strategy.
37:13They could have invoked the names of MGR and Jayalalitha a little more.
37:18They could have asked for votes in the name of these two leaders rather than, you know, asking for votes
37:25in the name of the current leaders alone.
37:28But the…
37:29Mr. Shivalanda, from being an ally to say this…
37:32From being an ally to say this…
37:32Right before…
37:33You know, you do understand the optics of it…
37:35Of what you are saying.
37:36Because you are practically suggesting that the AIA DMK could have fought the election better.
37:40I am not saying…
37:40No, the elections are over…
37:42No, the elections are over.
37:44But I mean, I am not saying that things are perfect.
37:47See, the elections are over.
37:48People are voted.
37:49But I think I would still give the ADMK a very good chance of winning the election…
37:54Mr. Ramakrishna, would you…
37:55Would you weigh in on the possibility tomorrow if there is, you know, a number that Vijay and
38:02TVK actually reach and they require the support of the AIDMK and the AIDMK actually dumping you
38:07and going with Vijay?
38:08Do you see that as a possibility?
38:12No, not at all.
38:13I don't think that is going to happen at all.
38:17If at all…
38:17I mean, what you are saying is going to come true.
38:19I don't think it is going to come true at all.
38:22But, I mean, it is quite superficial the way Mr. Gupta has done it.
38:25I don't believe that the TVK is anywhere close to, you know, winning the elections.
38:31Nowhere close to even 50.
38:34So, if at all, TVK is in a position to form the government, which is just hypothetical.
38:39And if they do make a request, well, I think it can be considered at that state.
38:43But there is no question of any break in the ADMK-BJP alliance.
38:47That's going to stay till the 2029 elections and there is no doubt about that.
38:50Okay.
38:51Mr. Murali, I'll bring you in also on this.
38:54I think what people are finding very hard to believe when we look at the numbers is that
38:58a 35% vote share converts to about 98 to 120 seats for Vijay, for TVK.
39:04From the get-go, the biggest challenge always for Vijay that everyone spoke about was seats conversion.
39:09What has you convinced that not just these numbers, beyond this also, according to the TVK, could hold?
39:16See, the people of Tamil Nadu are definitely looking for a change.
39:20And they were, as Mr. Gupta said when he spoke to that lady in Tamil Nadu, who was influenced by
39:27her daughter.
39:28There are many cases like that, thousands of cases like that, where the grandmother says,
39:32my granddaughter asked me to vote for Vijay, so I voted.
39:35So it may not be the, I mean, the most important thing, but these are important.
39:41So that's how, I think you talk to 10 people and six of them telling you, yes, we voted for
39:46TVK.
39:47And how can you, you know, brush that aside?
39:50I think Mr. Gupta's gone based on his gut feel.
39:53Even though the sample sizes are small, I think he's gone on gut feel by talking to these people.
39:58Okay, A Sarvanan of the DMK also joins us.
40:01Mr. Sarvanan, are you, is the DMK more confident today after the pollsters?
40:10He's beaming.
40:11Are you feeling better today?
40:13After trolling us all of last evening.
40:15Yes, are you feeling better today?
40:16He's laughing again.
40:18I'm watching all of you and enjoying the fun.
40:20Okay.
40:21Because you are discussing a very hypothetical situation, which isn't going to happen.
40:26Humor us.
40:27What?
40:28Yeah, yeah.
40:29Humor us, Mr. Sarvanan, if that is what you're thinking it is.
40:32Yeah, yeah.
40:33See, yesterday, Mr. I think I wasn't watching that, but it was there all on Twitter that he said it
40:42will go to 70 seats.
40:43It may go to 70 seats.
40:45No, no.
40:46I'll tell you what, Mr. Sarvanan, since you're mentioning that, I know there's been a whole discourse of it on
40:51social media.
40:51Yes, yes, yes.
40:52I will, you know, tell you that about 10 minutes ago, Mr. Pradeep Gupta was with us.
40:56I asked that question to him.
40:57I was watching it.
40:58So you heard it.
40:59You heard his answer then.
41:00I'll come to it.
41:00I'll come to it.
41:01See, that's what.
41:02When a pollster on questioning by Preeti, Preeti just used her aggressive tone.
41:06And Mr. Pradeep Gupta dropped by 30 seats.
41:09If Preeti had still more aggressive, then he would have gone to 50.
41:13No, no.
41:14Come on, sir.
41:14He said the same thing yesterday.
41:16He said this today.
41:17Just a moment, Akshita.
41:17Just a moment.
41:18If Marietu had joined, he would have gone to 30.
41:21Now you're…
41:22Now again…
41:23And Akshita, you could have changed tack.
41:24And Akshita, you could have…
41:25Mr. Sarvanan.
41:26You have changed tack.
41:31That's done.
41:32Okay, no.
41:33So tell me, sir.
41:34What explains M.K.
41:35Stalin's warning or caution to the party carders that they should not be complacent,
41:42that over the next few hours they should be particularly careful about monitoring the
41:47control rooms?
41:48Yeah, that is because what has happened elsewhere.
41:51Because there were unverified rumors and allegations in all the other poll-bound states
41:56of the BJP did whatever it did.
41:59It's a usual caution.
42:00It has got nothing to do with the…
42:02See, we are confident that in the boxes…
42:06But Mr. Sarvanan, your party has accused…
42:08Just a moment.
42:09Just a moment.
42:10In the boxes, the votes are there which will propel us to our stupendous victory.
42:15That is why we are saying, please have a watch.
42:18It's…
42:18So you're saying…
42:19Mr. Sarvanan, you're saying if TVK actually gets the numbers that have been predicted
42:24by Pradeep Gupta, then it's the BJP who has helped TVK do it.
42:29Is that what the allegation is?
42:31No, I'm not saying that.
42:31No, no, no.
42:32Don't put words into my mouth.
42:33I am saying…
42:34You asked me why the CM has said, please watch the control room.
42:38I said that is because the usual thing.
42:40Because it has got our precious words that will make us come to power the next time.
42:45It's a usual routine thing.
42:46We have just enough time for Pula Rao who is a political analyst and a close watcher of politics in
42:53Tamil Nadu.
42:54Mr. Pula Rao, Pradeep Gupta believes is convinced that these numbers will hold.
42:59And he also says that because the margin of victory is, you know, number is plus minus 2%.
43:05So it could go up to even 37% of votes for actor Vijay, which would mean that the numbers
43:13will go down from the DMK.
43:14And in that case, his number seats could go upwards of 120.
43:22Well, you see, Pradeep Gupta is now the most famous man in Tamil Nadu.
43:26Can I show you?
43:27We are in the south also.
43:29I agree.
43:29And what three of you can't say…
43:32Along with Akshita.
43:34Oh, please.
43:34Mr. Pula Rao, please.
43:35They are competing.
43:37They are competing with Akshita.
43:39No, no.
43:40Mr. Pula Rao, go ahead.
43:42Mr. Pula Rao, go ahead.
43:42Mr. Pula Rao, keep pulling my leg.
43:43Mr. Pula Rao, go ahead.
43:45Okay.
43:46If…
43:46You know, what three of you can't say, I'll say.
43:48Either he's going to be very famous or he's going to be infamous.
43:52Because now it's all about his prediction, which is, you know, taken…
43:55My friends will agree.
43:56Okay.
43:57This is a major point of discussion.
43:58Okay.
43:58He has a serious reputation.
44:01And definitely that reputation, you know, he has to stand by it.
44:05And we cannot…
44:06My friend, you know, any survey, a very non-personality makes, we have to take it seriously.
44:12Whether it's going to pan out, whether it's not going to be there, we know that.
44:15No, I agree.
44:16Yeah.
44:16And my apologies, Mr. Pula Rao for stepping in, but there's big breaking news coming in.
44:19Today's Chanakya has released their numbers.
44:22And I want to first focus on Kerala, where interestingly, today's Chanakya is suggesting
44:27it's going to be a tight fight.
44:29Yes.
44:29Here's what the numbers look like.
44:30According to today's Chanakya, UDF could be at 69.
44:33The LDF at 64, just imagine that.
44:36And they've given a margin of about 9 plus minus, give or take, for both UDF and LDF.
44:42And…
44:42The NDH seven seats, I mean, this is…
44:44This is going to get close according to today's Chanakya.
44:46Is around 40% for the UDF and LDF at 38%.
44:50That's what today's Chanakya is projecting.
44:54And others at 2%, BJP plus is at 20%.
44:5920%?
44:59Yes.
45:00Wow.
45:00So, UDF at 40%, LDF at 38%, then that's where I think…
45:06So, there's a 2% gap between the two.
45:08And if you actually look…
45:09And plus, LDF was the margin of victory plus minus 3%.
45:11Yeah.
45:11If you actually look at an Axis Mayinder, it was 44% versus 39%.
45:15Yes.
45:16So, most of the pollsters have given a decisive victory for UDF, barring today's Chanakya,
45:21which is saying 69-64.
45:22Okay.
45:23Just a gap of three seats.
45:24Okay.
45:25So, we're going to discuss those numbers.
45:26We're going to quickly get into the numbers, deep dive into the numbers that have been put forth by yet
45:31another pollster,
45:32which only queers the pitch of the numbers that are coming in from Kerenam.
45:37Now, suddenly, Kerenam is looking tight.
45:39Not good news, at least with this particular number coming in for the Congress.
45:44Not good news.
45:45But a quick break.
45:46We're back with the latest, all the numbers filtering in.
45:49We leave you with the latest numbers that have come in from Chanakya.
45:53And the numbers seem to suggest that it is a much tighter fight as been projected by other pollsters.
46:00Leave you with these numbers.
46:01Stay with us.
46:02Maria, Akshita and I are back shortly.
46:05Bye.
Comments