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In West Bengal, Phase 2 of the assembly elections recorded a 92.10 percent voter turnout, driven by intense political mobilisation and high participation among women voters.
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00:00Good evening, hello and welcome. You're with the news today, your primetime destination news,
00:04newsmakers, talking points. It is exit poll day because boats have been cast in all the
00:10four battleground states. The final, of course, was here in West Bengal. What are the exit polls
00:18saying? What are the tectonic shifts that could be taking place in Indian politics? I can tell you
00:23plenty of shocking findings from the big exit poll of Axis by India. We'll focus on what's
00:31happened in those battleground states. Let's bring you the headlines first as we assess those exit
00:38polls. Another historic turnout in West Bengal. 92% voting recorded in the phase two polls. Now
00:47all eyes on the big verdict day on the 4th of May.
00:55AXIS My India projects a blockbuster debut for actor Vijay's TVK. TVK predicted to win 98 to
01:04120 seats in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly. EMK closed behind at 92 to 110 seats with its
01:13allies. AI, DMK and NDA may bite the dust at third place.
01:26Pollsters predict Vijayn's defeat in Kerala and the Congress-led UDF may return to power in God's own
01:33country after a decade. AXIS My India projects a simple majority for the Congress-led alliance in Kerala.
01:45In the T state of Assam, AXIS My India projects Hemantabhiswa Sarma set to
01:51get a big majority and stay in power with a complete sweep and score a hat-trick.
02:00India projected to hold on to power in Puducherry. AI, NRC, BJP, AI, DMK Alliance likely to win the
02:08Coastal Union Territory. Congress, DMK Alliance may lose again.
02:28But our big story that we are breaking at the moment, there's been another historic turnout in the
02:33state of West Bengal once again. A 92.10 percent turnout reported in Bengal in the Phase 2 elections.
02:42The Phase 2 polls, men polling 91.07 percent, women 92.28.
02:49Maximum voting taking place in Purva Vardaman district of 93.66 percent, Babanipur, where Mamata
02:57Balaji is taking on Shuvendu Adhikari reporting an 86.63 percent voter turnout.
03:03The CEC saying highest ever voter percentage of polling in West Bengal in both Phase 1 and 2 since
03:10independent. But remember, this is also to be taken, what is to be taken into account is that the SIR
03:17exercise meant that a substantial number of voters from the previous elections were not on the voter list,
03:24about 12 percent of the total. Joining me now is Indrajeet Kundu. And Indrajeet, it appears at the
03:31moment West Bengal recording a remarkably high turnout. Some see it as strong anti-incumbency,
03:39others see it as the SIR effect. What are you gathering at the moment in Bengal? Because exit polls
03:46also seem split. Some are saying BJP victory, one or two saying Mamata's victory. So presumably,
03:52a lot of nervous, anxious anxiety all across Bengal at the moment.
03:59Well, absolutely, Rajdeep. You know, you ask anybody in Calcutta and everybody is asking what's happening,
04:05what do you think, what is going to be the result? No one has the answer really.
04:08We'll have to wait till May 4th when the EVMs are opened. It's a very, very difficult election to
04:14predict. In any case, West Bengal elections are very difficult to predict because people don't
04:18generally open up. But a lot has been said about the polling percentage. 93% in the first phase until
04:25about 7.45 today, it is 92%. So it's almost close to what we have seen in Phase 1. There
04:33were more urban
04:34areas in this phase and there was an expectation. There's a general sense that urban voters don't
04:40turn out in large numbers as compared to rural voters, but that hasn't happened.
04:45people both rural and urban. But we're also seeing a large turnout of women voters. We're also seeing a
04:54large turnout in the city areas in Kolkata as well. We've seen a very high voter turnout. There are signs
05:01that
05:01this could indicate anti-incumbency. There are signs that this could indicate some voter consolidation with
05:06both groups bringing out their voters in full force. That's right.
05:10You've been speaking to all the leaders. What are their, how confident or underconfident do they appear?
05:17Well, both sides seem very confident. At least that's the posturing that they're, you know, showing in front of the
05:24media.
05:24But I can tell you, I can assure you in both camps, there are, there is a bit of nervousness.
05:29It is ultimately, you know,
05:31optics and also a battle of nerves in the last phase. But as far as this entire situation is concerned,
05:38there are two
05:38major factors that will remain the headline of this 2026 election. One, of course, is the SIR factor for which,
05:47due to
05:47the squeezing of the voters list, we see and arithmetically, there is a jump and spike in the voter percentage.
05:54That's, that's a given. But at the same time, there is high levels of anti-incumbency, especially in the urban
06:01areas, which is
06:02extremely palpable and vocal. So I think the spike in voting percentage in both these phases can be explained as
06:11a
06:11combination of these two factors. But how that plays out, which side benefits out of it, it's anybody's guess, to
06:18be frank.
06:19Okay, Indujit Kundu, let me leave it there. We'll wait to see. Remember, Pradeep Gupta of Axis, of Axis by
06:25India says,
06:25he's not giving the West Bengal numbers today. He wants to wait a day to try and get a sense
06:31of really if
06:32more voters will speak on camera. Remember, there's always been the fear factor also associated with
06:37elections in West Bengal. Joining me now, Sanjay Kumar, sophologist and election analyst, Professor
06:43Maidul Islam, political scientist, joins me from Kolkata, Sandeep Shastri, election analyst and vice
06:49president, Neeti University. Appreciate all three of you joining us to look at those West Bengal numbers
06:54very closely. Sanjay Kumar, high voter turnout. Could this be bad or good news for the incumbent?
07:05Rajdeep, very difficult to say whether it is a good news or a bad news for incumbent, because we have
07:10seen in the past,
07:11turnouts have gone up, government have got reelected, and governments have also got defeated. Just to cite the data,
07:17if you look at all the state assembly elections held since 1952 till date, I managed to collect the data
07:24for about,
07:24almost about 370-380 assembly elections. And we have figured out that when the turnout goes up, half of the
07:32time,
07:33the governments got reelected, and half of the times, nearly half of the time, government got defeated.
07:38What do you make out of it? Very difficult to say, what does this high turnout indicate?
07:45Very difficult to predict what this high voter turnout indicates. Rahul, Varma, are you willing to take the plunge and
07:52say
07:52that this could be signs of anti-incumbency in West Bengal? Or do you believe the SIR effect needs to
07:58be first gauged
07:59before we know what impact it's actually had? So, yes, I think largely it's an SIR effect, two kinds of
08:07SIR effect.
08:08One is cleaning up of electoral rolls, getting the denominator reduced, and so the numbers on the numerator side will
08:16give you a bigger sort of percentage.
08:18Second, I think, at least in Bengal, it is a SIR-induced fear as well, that if I do not
08:24go out and vote this time, my name is not going to be there.
08:29So there is much more people coming back and definitely voting. Third, I think Bengal, because it's a highly polarized
08:36society,
08:36and with every election, the level of polarization is going up, and so you cannot afford to have an opponent
08:44in power.
08:45And so you just want to make sure that for your own party, you have to be there.
08:50These three things are what basically is about high turnout. I don't think it is related to anti-incumbency or
08:59pro-incumbency sentiment.
09:01Maidul Islam, your first reactions, particularly in the backdrop of now more and more polls showing the BJP could be
09:08ahead in West Bengal.
09:09Do you believe that the polarization has now reached a saturation point, possibly, and perhaps is now turning marginal seats
09:19into victories?
09:19We will, of course, discuss that on polling day. But what explains this high voter turnout? Complete polarization?
09:27Well, I agree with Rahul before, and I also agree with Professor Jack Barr. I think there is no direct
09:33relationship between turnouts and polling outcomes.
09:39The most important thing regarding the turnout figures, what we have to concentrate is on the woman voter turnout.
09:45Now, in the first phase, there was a 2% difference between the woman voter turnout with the men voter
09:52turnout.
09:53So women are actually turning out more in the first phase. And that's the same thing is continuing up till
09:59now in the second phase.
10:01Still now the data is showing that it's 1% more in favor of women.
10:05Now, if that is happening, then, of course, there is an advantage, because women are the core voters, where the
10:13cash transfer schemes have been increased over the years, particularly in the last five years, the 500 to 1,000
10:18and 1,000 to 1,500.
10:20And then there's also new schemes for the new youth or the unemployed youth, I guess, those social and the
10:29delivery of different other social welfare schemes.
10:32And also the Bengal has a history of, you know, these long regimes. Since 1972, it has always been a
10:41two-third majority.
10:42Whoever wins, wins is big, right? And then another trend is that whoever wins the Lok Sabasi, Lok Sabai election,
10:48they win the next assembly election.
10:51Now, in the last two years, the BJP, of course, lost the Lok Sabasi elections in 2024.
10:58And there has been not very much anti-government movement, because in Bengal, generally, overnight, it doesn't change governments.
11:07You get a signal for, let's say, five years, ten years. It has happened before the transition phase from the
11:1267 to 77.
11:14And it has changed from 2008 to 11, if you will speak post-Singhundandigram.
11:20I think that, so we cannot completely ignore this entire state's history and long-term political trends and the long
11:27-term party systems, how it occurs.
11:29So, I guess, at the boot-level organization, what I find in my field work, of course, I've basically, you
11:36know, gone to different places in South Bengal,
11:38is the boot-level organization of the BJP is really, really weak.
11:42Whereas you have boot-level organizations of the Tridamul, and quite interestingly, the CPM still has certain boot-level organizations.
11:51Now, if the SIR is a factor and the migrant labor is also coming out, coming back, just to turn
11:57out because they fear that their voters' vote names will be deleted,
12:01then all parties are actually mobilizing their cadres or their supporters.
12:06So, the CPM is also mobilizing, Congress is mobilizing, the ISF is mobilizing, the BJP, Tridamul, everyone is mobilizing because
12:13they think that their voters, their supporters,
12:16even if they don't win, their supporters and their voters just get turned out so that their names should be
12:22there in the next summary division.
12:23Okay. So, SIR, of course, remains a major X factor. Sandeep Shastri, do you believe that this voter turnout suggests
12:32that Mamata Banerjee is in serious trouble
12:37and possibly after 15 years anti-incumbency has set in?
12:44Rajdeep, I would not move to making that conclusion just on this principle.
12:49I would go with my other three panelists, but I would make the three points in a different order.
12:57I think, firstly, increased voter turnout for me is a byproduct of an environment perceived to be more safe and
13:06more secure.
13:08I don't know if it has to do with the central forces around, but generally the perception that there is
13:14a better law and order
13:15and a better security and a better safety situation around the time of the elections has led to a greater
13:21voter turnout.
13:23Secondly, I think the hyperpolarization that this election has seen has got the committed voters of both the BJP and
13:33the TMC to come out in large numbers and vote.
13:36And I think a critical deciding factor is who has been between the two more successful in doing that.
13:45And third, of course, I would also see the SIR role, what Rahul just now said, the factor of the
13:52corrections in the voters list,
13:54and the fear factor that if I do not go and vote this time, next time my name may be
14:00out of the list.
14:00So I think it's a combination for me of all these three factors which account for a higher voter turnout.
14:07Is it going to lead to change or is it going to lead to continuity?
14:13For me, the main factor would be this hyperpolarization, who has been able to get their voters in larger numbers
14:23to the booth?
14:24Is it the TMC? Is it the BJP?
14:27So this hyperpolarization, if you can explain that to us, Sanjay Kumar, is there any state quite like Bengal which
14:34is as hyperpolarized?
14:36Remember, the BJP till 10 years ago was a marginal party.
14:40They seem to have succeeded in continuously growing in West Bengal.
14:44The TMC took a large chunk of the left vote which was dominant for 30 years.
14:50Hyperpolarization, is that the explanation for this remarkably high voter turnout or anger or fatigue?
14:56What is it?
15:01I would not prefer to use the word polarization, hyperpolarization.
15:07I would say intense mobilization.
15:09Instead of polarization, it is an intense mobilization by the cadres, party cadres of both the parties and also the
15:16two parties which may not be doing very well.
15:18I am referring to the Congress and the left parties.
15:22So, I missed out in the first instance that we should also not forget that better law and order situation,
15:29the presence of security forces.
15:31That has also contributed to a very high turnout because people came out to vote.
15:36They were not worried about, you know, violence taking place on the polling day.
15:40But I think intense mobilization, that's one certainly a big factor which has contributed to the increase in voter turnout.
15:50Is it a level playing field though, Rahul Verma, you believe?
15:53The TMC is claiming it's not a level playing field.
15:56The BJP is saying it's completely free and fair.
15:59Is that also creating these very, very competitive narratives in this hyperpolarized atmosphere?
16:05Well, West Bengal has never seen uniform contest.
16:10The reason why I'm saying this because, think of it, between 1977 and 2026, 50 years, power has changed hands
16:21in West Bengal only once.
16:23That was 2011.
16:25You don't have, so Bengal produces hegemonic parties, dominant parties.
16:30Once you have that kind of party, then you are never going to have, you know, uniform contest.
16:37There's something that you asked before this, which is that how is Bengal different?
16:43Bengal is also different because in no other state you see this kind of security mobilization
16:49and you also don't see this kind of election related violence, right?
16:53This is not happening just in 2026, even in the past, during left years, during like when TMC came to
17:01power.
17:02So power in Bengal has not changed in silent ways as it had happened, happens in other parts, right?
17:09That's what is so, the word that I think Sandeepji was using about hyperpolarization.
17:14It's not just that, you know, it's a Hindu-Muslim polarization or we are ideologically different.
17:19It's politics which is marked with violence.
17:22And because of that, it creates these kind of things in the society.
17:27And why it happens because long back, sorry, Razdeep, because in Bengal, parties have penetrated, first left, now TMC, has
17:36penetrated in society.
17:37They basically interfere in small matters of societal relations, what Dwaibayan Bhattacharya has called as party society.
17:47So because Bengal is peculiar, we are seeing peculiar phenomenas in there.
17:53Before you leave us, Mr. Islam, I want to ask you one quick answer.
17:57The Mahila vote, is that going to be critical?
18:00In all of this, voter turnout, as you said, marginally higher among women.
18:03Is that going to be decisive?
18:06If there's any factor that's decisive in Bengal, it will be, have the women stuck with Mamata Banerjee?
18:11Or have they shifted, particularly Hindu women, shifted to the BJP?
18:17I think it's very, very difficult to say now, but whatever fieldwork, ethnographic fieldwork, of course ethnography has its own
18:24limitations.
18:25I still find that the Hindu women voters are still very strongly behind Mamata.
18:32And I think this election could probably be, again, an election of three M's, Muslims, Matuas and Mamata.
18:41And so I think that is going to be, we have to see that.
18:46Even in the Matua belt, the BJP is having a very difficult terrain because the Matuas are not happy.
18:53Their names were also deleted.
18:56They were core voters of the BJP since 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
19:01And there is a huge kind of resentment.
19:05So I think we have to be a bit cautious just to project a kind of result for Bengal now.
19:14It's a very politically intense state.
19:16I completely agree with Prof. Sanjya Kumar that this is political mobilization, intense mobilization in an intensive revision kind of
19:25a space.
19:27And of course it's also a sad thing that 35 lakh voters have gone to the tribunal and the latest
19:33strike rate of inclusions is 99%.
19:36I am quite worried that how this election will be challenged or not later on just from the pure point
19:43of law in terms of margin, the kind of deletions.
19:45And most of them are genuine voters.
19:48So I think we have to wait till 4th of May to do more research, to get a deep dive
19:58into the data that will come out.
19:59I am going to leave it there for you on West Bengal.
20:03I appreciate your joining us, Prof. Islam.
20:04My other three guests still stay with me.
20:07Because from West Bengal I want to turn to the other big battleground state.
20:10The exit poll for which we have the Access My India and the Post poll.
20:15And this is easily the most dramatic exit poll finding in years.
20:22Access My India's exit poll for Tamil Nadu.
20:26Vote share.
20:27DMK and its allies, 35%.
20:29AIDMK, 23%.
20:31TVK, an astounding 35% as well.
20:36So you have the TVK actually getting the same percentage of votes as the DMK.
20:42The actor, politician, Vijay's votes are the same as the DMK.
20:49How is this translating into seats as per Access My India's exit poll?
20:53This is a tectonic result.
20:56First day, first show, political debut.
20:59TVK, party number one as per this poll, 98 to 120.
21:03But the DMK and its allies very close behind 92 to 110.
21:09AIDMK and its allies 22 to 32.
21:12Not since NTR, and that was 1983, have we perhaps seen such a sensational debut.
21:19Yes, Arvind Khedriwal was single largest, but that was in Delhi's small state.
21:24This is in the big state of Tamil Nadu.
21:27Let's take a look at now what the exit Tamil Nadu poll or polls are saying.
21:32Here too, Access My India is an outlier.
21:35The DMK will take satisfaction from the fact that most of the other polls are putting them at number one
21:42and the TVK not more than 25 seats.
21:46So Pradeep Gupta has gone on a limb, Access My India.
21:50I'll try and put out a chunk of why Pradeep said what he said a little in a moment from
21:56now.
21:56We had interviewed him a little while ago.
21:58But this is the result to really defy every result, Sandeep Shastri.
22:03I don't think for two or three decades have we quite seen such a prediction
22:08that an actor politician in a state like Tamil Nadu could be making such a sensational political debut.
22:16Rajdeep, when an untested political player comes onto the field,
22:21now this is the type of surprise that you can always have.
22:26Using an analogy you used earlier, and also being a very good sports enthusiast,
22:33do we really have a level playing field, be it in West Bengal or now where what we are discussing
22:38Tamil Nadu?
22:39Or is a level playing field the by-product of reading the pitch correctly by the players?
22:46And I think if the Access My India results are what is going to be seen on the 4th of
22:54May,
22:54I think Vijay has understood the ground situation correctly.
22:58He sees himself as the right person at the right place.
23:02And I would still be a little hesitant to fully back what the Access My India says.
23:10I would believe that the actual performance of the newcomer may be a little less than what is projected,
23:19a little more moderate.
23:20And I feel that this will be a transition election in Tamil Nadu,
23:25where Tamil Nadu moves from a bi-alliance competition to a tripolar competition.
23:32So I have a little hesitation in fully endorsing what the exit poll projected on India today would say.
23:41I would believe it is a slight overreach because,
23:45and that is because this is an untested player, it's difficult to really project it carefully.
23:51I go back to my point. For me, this is a transition election.
23:55Also, if you give me 30 more seconds, I would say,
23:58let's remember in 1977 another untested player in a party, MGR, was able to get 130 of 234 seats.
24:08And NTR in Tamil Nadu in Andhra in 1983 was able to do a landslide 2 out of 294 seats.
24:16Now, it is not this type of projection we are making.
24:20We are making a projection of a marginal majority, even if you take the upper limits.
24:25So I would be a little cautious and say this is likely to be more a transition election.
24:31Transition or not?
24:32I mean, the fact is, Rahul Verma, this would be, in my view, much more than a transition election.
24:38It shows, for example, that an actor who's virtually come out of nowhere into politics
24:43is actually scoring far, far more than two established parties.
24:47I mean, if he gets the same percentage of votes also as the DMK, that's a pretty formidable achievement.
24:5435% if he gets anywhere above 30, in fact.
24:58Is it just the novelty factor if these numbers hold or is there something else that has changed?
25:02Or do you agree with Sandeep that this is a transition election?
25:06So my first point is that even if I take some of those polls which are saying that TBK will
25:13get 10 to 12 seats,
25:14I think the first point is TBK has entered Bengal politics and Tamil Nadu politics and it is going to
25:22change.
25:23Even 10 seats means that he is now at least a player with 15 to 20% vote share.
25:28So that is the first thing.
25:30The second thing is that if he emerges as the party number one, which possibility you cannot completely rule out.
25:39Because anyone who traveled a little bit of Tamil Nadu, especially in the Chennai region and in the South Belt,
25:47you know that there is a groundswell support, especially among the younger voters of Tamil Nadu.
25:54Now, whether that can reach to 35 or not, we will get to know on May 4.
25:59But if that happens, then definitely like 50 years of Tamil Nadu politics is going to change from there.
26:05And it will have serious implications on other players who is going to align with TBK to help them to
26:13form the government.
26:14Will it be Congress? Will it be AIDMK? Will it be BJP?
26:18So in some ways, if AIDMK pairs with TBK, then they will be the second fiddle and they will have
26:27a serious existential problem going forward.
26:30So from here on, the point that I'm trying to make is that Tamil Nadu politics is going to change.
26:36The third point, any party that scores 18, 20% or above, 35 is almost double of that.
26:45Then let's not start thinking about whose vote they are cutting.
26:49They are basically cutting everyone's vote or whatever was available.
26:52Which means that this person was able to create or this party was able to create their own voter base
26:59in the society.
27:01If you are at a 4% or 5% or 8%, then you can think, okay, this party is
27:05a vote cutter.
27:06But when you are at 25%, 30%, 35%, then this party has basically made a big, big splash on the
27:13screen.
27:14So to me, Tamil Nadu is a much bigger story than what might or might not happen in Bengal, given
27:22what is being projected.
27:23It's very, very fascinating because Anand Kochudi, you know, you're joining us.
27:28You've also traveled through Tamil Nadu.
27:30You're a senior journalist.
27:31Did you see this happening?
27:33Did you?
27:33I sensed when I traveled through Tamil Nadu, I saw a lot of young voters, restless for change.
27:38These are voters who have not seen Jail Alita, Karuna Nidhi, first time voters.
27:43They just wanted something new.
27:45Is it the novelty factor that Vijay was bringing?
27:48Because what else would explain if these numbers hold?
27:51Again, I say it's a big if.
27:53All the other exit polls are giving Vijay relatively smaller numbers, less than 25 seats.
27:59But here comes one poll of Pradeep Gupta, who's sticking his neck out and suggesting that he's going to be
28:05party number one.
28:06Did you sense it at all on the ground, Anand?
28:09Rajdeep, I would say that Vijay's popularity was quite palpable.
28:15People were, you know, especially the young people, young voters.
28:20They, I think, made a huge difference if this exit poll holds.
28:24And I traveled through Kongunada, the western belt, and Kanyakumari region, southern Tamil Nadu, but not the northern and Chennai
28:35region.
28:36But even there, where Vijay's showing is supposed to be weaker in this part, but even there, Vijay's party seemed
28:46formidable.
28:47Not that he had too many cadres, but the voters, the general public seemed too enthused.
28:53And everybody thought that he did not have the cadres to make that change in the rural belt.
28:59But, you know, but he made a very important point that Vijay is there in everybody's home.
29:04And I think that, if this exit poll holds true…
29:07But other actors have also, with due regard, Anand, other actors have also been…
29:11Kamala Hassan tried five years ago, he couldn't succeed.
29:14Vijay Khan tried, couldn't really succeed.
29:17What is it, if these numbers hold, that's making Vijay so different?
29:21Is it just that Tamil Nadu has moved into this post-Karnanidi, Jailalita phase, and is looking for a new
29:26leader, anything new?
29:29Rajdeep, I think Vijay is in the prime of his career.
29:32So he had at least ten years left as a superstar.
29:37He could have continued in films.
29:39I think people saw that he was willing to give all that up.
29:44Kamala Hassan, to be fair, he, you know, he had almost completed 50 years in cinema,
29:50and he joined politics at the end of his career.
29:54I don't know if it's fair to say that, but he was…
29:58His career was, you know, he had transitioned from an actor to a politician at a later stage.
30:06But Vijay, even though he's not a very young man, but he is still in the prime of his career
30:13in Tamil Nadu.
30:15And Vijay Khan, too, he had made the transition much later.
30:19So I would say that, unlike MGR, who had a base in the DMK, Vijay, who came in without any
30:26such political, you know, legacy of sorts,
30:31he managed to, you know, cross that threshold of whatever, whether he ends up with even 25 percent, next election
30:39he's going to be the party number two and the, you know, likely winner.
30:44So I think this election, he has managed to make that, you know, he has managed to project himself as
30:52the leader in waiting in Tamil Nadu, which has been going from 1967, going from the DMK to the ADMK.
31:01I think that space that was there, he managed to corner that.
31:05Right.
31:06You know, I just wanted a moment to go to Pradeep Gupta, who I spoke to earlier.
31:10Remember, because he's really stuck his neck out on this one.
31:13It's one thing for a pollster to go along with the win, to give numbers which may be in a
31:185-10 percent range away from the others.
31:21But here, it's been a dramatic shift.
31:23What explains this?
31:24Listen in to what Pradeep Gupta told me, why he believes Vijay is becoming such a phenomenon in this election.
31:35So, Rajdeep, let me give you the vote share also.
31:38We are predicting 35 percent for both, DMK Alliance and TVK both, 35 percent for both.
31:45The only difference why the TVK seats looks like more is that wherever DMK is winning, they are winning with
31:53a good margin, whereas the winning margin is much lower when it comes to TVK.
31:59And that is the precisely reason why I'm telling you again and again, even if TVK got 100 seat and
32:07DMK gets 110, my poll is saying so.
32:11But you see the one side of the story.
32:13That's the problem.
32:16What is the other side of the story?
32:18The story is that TVK even end up with a lower range of 98 seats and higher range for 1
32:25-1-10 for DMK Alliance.
32:27You are not looking at that.
32:28But that's still a big number.
32:30Pradeep Gupta, at the end of the day, the biggest question that was being asked of the TVK is even
32:34if they get the vote share.
32:35And 35 percent, sure, many did say maybe it's possible.
32:38You know, consolidating that to ensure seat wins.
32:41Everyone said that's a huge challenge for TVK.
32:44You believe that they've actually managed to transform that vote share into seats so much so that you're giving them
32:49even triple digit.
32:51That's the reason.
32:52I tell you why it is.
32:54If you see my detailed analysis, in the age group, in the age group and gender group, you will find
33:03all the difference among the…
33:06Is that women and youth then you're suggesting?
33:08Youth, yes.
33:10When I say youth, I am referring to 18 to 39 years of age, which contributes to 42 percent of
33:16the population where TVK Vijay is sweeping, sweeping.
33:22And this is what I refer to as gentrification of the election.
33:25But Pradeep, when you ask them the question on preferred CM, does Vijay score over Stalin?
33:31Yes, 37 percent.
33:32I'm looking at that number here.
33:3437 percent.
33:35That's more popular.
33:36He is more popular.
33:38Among the other parties, he is more popular in that sense.
33:42You know, I'm not surprised by that.
33:43What I'm surprised by is the fact that it's converting into seats.
33:47There's no traditional vote bank, Pradeep.
33:49There's no traditional vote bank for the TVK.
33:51You know, all this while everyone spoke of the Vijay impact, what you're suggesting is that he's going to be
33:57doing an MGR once again.
33:59He's the next MGR of Tamil Nadu, going by your numbers.
34:02Yes, that is precisely what I'm predicting.
34:05MGR and NTR of Andhra Pradesh.
34:09That changes politics forever.
34:11I'll tell you what could have happened.
34:13I mean, I'm looking now at your deep dive.
34:15And Akshida, you can correct me.
34:17The DMK dominated northern Tamil Nadu and Chennai in particular.
34:21Yeah.
34:21And they won it by big margins.
34:23This was also the area where TVK focused a lot of its political equity on.
34:29Correct.
34:29So, the traditional belief, what the TVK seems to have done, if Pradeep's numbers hold,
34:33they have cut into the anti-incumbency vote, particularly in western Tamil Nadu where the AIDMK is strong,
34:39and prevented the AIDMK from winning some of the seats that they used to traditionally win
34:43in areas like E-Road, Salem, where they would never lose.
34:46Those were their bastions.
34:48But if these numbers hold, they've obviously swept urban and semi-urban Tamil Nadu.
34:52That's the hold.
34:53What Pradeep's numbers are surprising me is that you're seemingly claiming that even in rural Tamil Nadu,
34:59where there was a belief that the TVK would struggle because they don't have the organizational machine
35:04to match the DMK and AIDMK, they are winning there. This is a wave.
35:09Whichever wave, even though it's 35%, 35%, it's a bit of a wave because they are winning across parts of
35:16Tamil Nadu
35:17where you wouldn't have expected them to win.
35:19If these numbers hold.
35:22Rajdeep, hear me out.
35:24In Chennai, in Chennai regions, they are doing extraordinarily good. Extraordinary good.
35:30Even, even for that matter, those big stalwart, the biggest name in the Chennai and the Tamil Nadu may have
35:39tough time.
35:41May have tough time.
35:41Are you saying Kolatur? Are you suggesting Stalin? Are you suggesting Chepok Udayinidi Stalin?
35:46I am suggesting all the big guns, including the name you suggested.
35:51I am not saying they are losing. I am saying it's not easy.
35:54In Chennai particularly.
35:56In Southern Tamil Nadu, also TVK is doing very good.
36:00In Trichy Delta, Kaveri Delta area, DMK is doing good.
36:05In Western Tamil Nadu, where Jay Jailalita used to do good.
36:13All three are doing good. All three are doing good.
36:17And in Northern Tamil Nadu, DMK is doing little better than DMK.
36:23So therefore, if these numbers hold, it is arguably one of the biggest shifts that's taken place in Indian politics.
36:30I cannot recall when last we've seen Indian politics change in such a dramatic manner in a state where a
36:39complete debutant in a large state makes such an impact since N.T. Rama Rao.
36:44I keep giving the N.T. Rama Rao equivalent. Am I exaggerating that, Rahul Verma, when I'm now equating Vijay
36:50to N.T. Rama Rao?
36:52So, you know, their fans might get offended, but I think politically you are making a right point.
36:59Because in some ways, in last 30, 35 odd years, we had not seen a debutant basically contesting the first
37:09election and getting that close to power.
37:11So, yes, I think your comparison in that sense is right.
37:16What I would also urge, perhaps other panelists could also reflect on this, which is like we are now discussing
37:23as if Vijay is definitely going to win this election.
37:27Things might change on May 4.
37:29The question is, why is AIDNK getting the thrashing and DMK is still able to survive?
37:36If those numbers hold, then it's the AIDNK which is sort of like losing in terms of both vote share
37:43and seat share.
37:44So, is it AIDNK losing because of, say, the delimitation fiasco, them aligning with BJP?
37:52Or is AIDNK losing because they don't have a charismatic leader like Jalalitha and at least the power transition in
38:00DMK was much more clear,
38:01where it's MK Stalin now and Udainidi Stalin going forward?
38:05So, is this now the end of AIDNK?
38:09I think that would be also an interesting question to sort of like ponder over.
38:13It also could be, Sandeep Shastri, something that needs to be looked at, the UVA factor.
38:1840% of Tamil Nadu under the age of 40, I don't know what they call Gen Z, Gen Y,
38:24what they call themselves, millennials,
38:26but this young and restless generation which wants change.
38:29And every political party, just as it targets the Women Vote Bank, has to now target the UVA Vote Bank.
38:35If these numbers hold, it suggests that the youth in particular, apart from other groups, are clearly wanting change of
38:43some kind, something new, something different.
38:46Two points, Rajneep.
38:48I think there is no doubt on the fact that there is a visible and some of us on May
38:544th may say dramatic change which the younger generation has brought about as voters.
39:00We saw this to an extent in Bihar, when discussing Bihar, that Bihar had the largest youth vote at that
39:07time in the election.
39:08So, we may be seeing something similar happening in Tamil Nadu.
39:12And I think the other question which Rahul raised is also equally important.
39:16There was talk going on that the BJP was keen to bring Vijay into the NDA alliance which the Anna
39:24DMQ opposed.
39:26And I think the main reason for wanting that is the need for a local charismatic face to challenge the
39:33DMK.
39:33I think there is time and again evidence showing that the Anna DMK, while it has some grassroots support in
39:43certain parts of Tamil Nadu, its leadership is not able to lift the party up in terms of competition.
39:49So, therefore, Vijay was seen as a mass leader who could have brought in that and that's why you had
39:56all that discussion before the elections about the Vijay and that party getting into the NDA.
40:03That was not to happen because of the opposition of the Anna DMK.
40:07But now, as Rahul rightly put it, if these projections are right and even if you look at the other
40:14projections that are coming up, the Anna DMK does not seem to be seen in that much positive light in
40:23any of those, any of the major exit polls that are there.
40:27So, I think one question that will emerge in Tamil Nadu is the future of the Anna DMK and what
40:34the BJP would do as part of the NDA in terms of showing up the possibilities of the party.
40:42Well, who knows the BJP would want to tie up with Vijay.
40:45The Congress wanted to tie up with Vijay, a section of the Congress with Vijay before the election.
40:50We'll have to wait and see whether that happens after the election.
40:52But Vijay has clearly become the real story of the exit polls today.
40:57There is another story and this brings some better news.
41:00The only real good news for the Congress is coming from Kerala.
41:04Let's bring you the poll of polls now for Kerala because it clearly shows that the UDF in Kerala has
41:11done very well.
41:12Take a look at all those numbers that are coming up.
41:28All these polls are clearly putting in the 140 member Kerala Assembly, the UDF above the halfway mark.
41:38No one here is giving the left a majority.
41:41Every poll going in one clear direction, advantage to the UDF in Kerala.
41:48So the big story coming in there, Anand from Kerala, is that this is UDF's moment.
41:54And clearly, for once, the Congress seems to have got its act together.
41:58Whether it's KC Venugopal in Delhi, whether it is Satishan and Ramesh Chenitala in Kerala,
42:05the factionalized Congress has managed to get its act together and 10 years anti-incumbency could have set in.
42:12So Stalin appears to be struggling and in Kerala, it could be endgame for Vijayan.
42:22Well, Rajdeep, Vijayan, you know, he is 80 plus.
42:26He is 80 years old and he is turning 81 this month.
42:31And so, I guess, compared to someone like Stalin and, you know, Vijayan has been the leader of the CPM
42:40since 1998.
42:41He was the party state secretary since 1998 and he has been leading the party for almost three decades now.
42:49And there is no second-rung leadership in the party left.
42:52There is KK Shailaja, of course, but then nobody is, you know, projecting her as a leader in waiting,
42:58except for the people outside the party.
43:00Within the party, there is no second-rung and that has been completely decimated.
43:05And now, I guess, the CPM will have a huge challenge finding their next leadership,
43:11the next generation of leadership, because from P. Rajiv to M. Swaraj and M. B. Rajesh,
43:17they're all, you know, they're all equals.
43:20There is nobody who is slightly ahead in that race.
43:23And with the UDF, you know, they, unlike Haryana, they waited for the election to be over,
43:31to fight among themselves for the chief minister's chair.
43:34Once the election was done, Ramesh Chanitala, Vidi Satishan, they all started, you know, making claims.
43:40And then KC Venugopal himself threw his hat in the ring.
43:44If anybody thought that he was not interested in becoming the chief minister of Kerala,
43:50he proved them wrong by staying 18 days at a stretch in the state
43:56and campaigning throughout 60 seats, assembly constituencies,
44:01covering more than, covering more ground than any other leader,
44:04and waiting for the Kerala election to be over to travel to any other state.
44:09And so they are all fighting among themselves now,
44:12but they waited till the election to be over to do that.
44:16So they presented a united picture that they were united in the fight,
44:20and they left the high command.
44:23I mean, the decision was left on the high command.
44:26And so the UDF is reaping the reward for that.
44:30And for once, the carders, the Congress carders in the state,
44:35they were very much on the ground and they were working overtime.
44:39Because I think they were, you know, for after 10 years,
44:42they were totally, yeah, they wanted a change
44:47and they knew that it was the last bust
44:49because of the emergence of the BJP as a third player.
44:52So even if the BJP ends up getting 15%, 14% as the exit ball predicts,
44:57the BJP definitely is a player and, you know,
45:01it is going to harm both the LDF and the UDF in the future.
45:05So in 26, yes.
45:07You know, I take your point because the fact is that if I look at the numbers,
45:12for who will be CM, because already that battle has begun,
45:15VD Satishan, as per Pol Mantra, 21%.
45:20VD Satishan, 21%.
45:22Pindrai Vijayan, 20.5.
45:25This was Axis Maa India put VD Satishan, 21.
45:28Pindrai Vijayan, 33.
45:29Pol Mantra is putting VD Satishan, 21.
45:32Pindrai Vijayan, 20.5.
45:34KC Venugopal, 17.8.
45:37KK Shailaja, of the left, 11.2.
45:40Ramesh Chanitala, 11.2.
45:42Rajiv Chandrasekar, 10.5.
45:46So you have a sense that the Congress is now already looking,
45:49Sandeep Shastri has,
45:50Korn Banega Mukhe Mantri.
45:52You have KC Venugopal close to Rahul Gandhi,
45:55who's one candidate.
45:56You have VD Satishan, who's led the fight there on the ground.
46:00And you have others, including Ramesh Chanitala,
46:03who want to put their hat in the ring.
46:05How do you see this playing out?
46:07Will that become the next battle?
46:08Or is Kerala going to be smoother?
46:10No, it will definitely be a battle,
46:13because Congress has always had this battle since 2014,
46:17with a weaker high command.
46:19But I think the dice seems to be favoring Satishan
46:24for various factors.
46:26He's been the one who is working at the ground level.
46:29And I think what lesson,
46:32if these exit polls turn out to be right,
46:35the lesson that the Congress has learned
46:37is not to do a Haryana in Kerala,
46:39because everybody was saying,
46:41I had the chance to go around Kerala twice during the campaign.
46:45And one lesson, one message which was coming out is,
46:50if the UDS does not do well,
46:53the Congress would have to blame itself for that,
46:56that there is nobody who will defeat the UDF,
46:58the Congress itself could do that.
47:00So, the exit polls seem to suggest that that's not happening.
47:05Rajdeep, if I could make in 30 seconds two more quick points.
47:08I think what has gone against the LDF
47:11is not just the fact it's been in power for two years.
47:14If you look at the posters which the party created across the state,
47:18it was posters with only the image of the chief minister being projected,
47:23which is very much against the ethos which the CPM has believed in.
47:29And I believe that personalization of the whole campaign
47:33was something which possibly went against the party.
47:36Finally, the exit polls also put the BJP at the highest,
47:41even in the highest poll in single digits.
47:44None of the exit polls put them in double digits.
47:47But I think they had a long-term plan
47:50and their aim is to emerge as the major challenger to the UDF.
47:55And that's what I think they will look at after these results.
47:59The BJP, on the other hand, Rahul Verma,
48:01has not done as well in Kerala as they did in the looks about.
48:07They were 20% there.
48:08They are now down as per this poll to 14% access by India.
48:12So, it's one of the states where the BJP has not been able
48:15to make the kind of breakthrough.
48:17If anything else, they might have helped the UDF here
48:19by taking some of the Hindu vote away from the LDF.
48:24Do you believe that this is the one state
48:26where the BJP finds life tough?
48:29No, there are many other states.
48:31West Bengal is one of them.
48:32So, first point, yes, it's a tough state for BJP,
48:36especially because of the demographic composition.
48:39If you add Muslims and Christians,
48:42both those groups would account for 45% to 48% population.
48:47BJP does not have any traction among those two communities.
48:50So, it basically leaves them with only half of the state.
48:54The second point is, like, UDF is largely, like,
49:00they have a bigger share.
49:03So, Muslims are largely consolidated behind UDF.
49:07Part of Christian voters are also behind UDF.
49:11And UDF, LDF in that sense in Kerala is largely a Hindu party.
49:16And so, what you were right about this,
49:18that BJP, by taking away a chunk of Hindu vote,
49:22actually hurt the LDF.
49:25The third point, which is,
49:26we have seen this in 2019 and 2024,
49:29BJP tends to do better in Lok Sabha election.
49:32And UDF also tends to do better
49:34in Lok Sabha elections in Kerala.
49:36So, this decline in that sense is part of the pattern.
49:40I think, from BJP's sort of, like, perspective,
49:45left decline in Kerala is what will give them opening.
49:49So, the big story, if these numbers hold,
49:52and likely to hold because there is unanimity among pollsters,
49:57like, this is a big, big sort of, like, whistle for left,
50:01because left is already sort of, like, out in Tripura.
50:04They don't even figure in exit poll projections in West Bengal.
50:08And if they lose this state,
50:09then they won't be in power in any other state in India,
50:12which would happen for the first time in last 70 years.
50:15Okay, so I'm going to leave it there.
50:17As I said, interesting to see how this is all playing out at the moment.
50:22If Kerala holds, the battle will be Korn Banega,
50:25Chief Minister, three candidates,
50:27Satishan, Venu Gopal, and Chenithala,
50:30all of them very much in that race,
50:33if the Congress is to win that election.
50:36Let me turn to the final state and the poll of polls that have come from Assam.
50:40And in Assam, it is one-sided again.
50:45Clear victory, a three-fourths victory in every poll to the BJP.
50:49Hemantabishwa Sarma scoring big in Assam at the moment.
50:53Most of the polls predicting a three-fourths victory to the ruling BJP.
50:59Are you surprised at all by those numbers, Rahul Verma?
51:03Or is this in pattern with what was being seen even in the Lok Sabha elections?
51:08The BJP has become a dominant party in Assam.
51:12The gerrymandering of seats, some would call it delimitation,
51:16less Muslim-dominated seats,
51:18upper Assam versus lower Assam,
51:20Assamese versus outsiders,
51:22all of that has worked in favour of the BJP.
51:28Absolutely. See, I think in Assam,
51:31what seems to be happening,
51:32that multiple factors are coming together
51:35to give this kind of dominant status to BJP.
51:39The first thing is like every successive election
51:42between 2011 to 2016,
51:4416 to 21, 21 to 26,
51:47and now BJP's vote share and seat share is increasing.
51:51And it is being done by basically stitching together
51:53very different kind of coalitions on the ground,
51:56bringing all kinds of political players
51:59in the forest, in Bodo land,
52:01and in other parts of Assam.
52:03The third thing they have been able to do
52:06is to take away important leaders from the Congress Party.
52:10Think of it.
52:11Himanta Vishwa Sharma was part of
52:13Tarun Gogo's cabinet.
52:15And just before the election,
52:17they got two important leaders from the Congress
52:20joining the BJP.
52:24But this is not to say that the delimitation
52:27or gerrymandering exercise in Assam
52:29has not created a much more sort of like fertile ground
52:33for BJP to now hold power.
52:36But we have to also equally see
52:39the decline of Congress organization
52:42in states like Assam,
52:44where they were in power for three terms
52:46between 2001 to 2016.
52:50And it seems like in this election,
52:53Congress organization was not visible on the ground
52:56to be able to sort of like mount
52:58the campaign of challenge, right?
53:00So all these factors, to my mind,
53:03the political delimitation,
53:05the BJP able to sort of like stitch together
53:08social coalitions,
53:09get politicians from the other side to its pocket
53:14has created now what you called
53:17as a dominant party situation
53:18for BJP in Assam.
53:20Fascinating, because this is the big change
53:22that's taken place in a way in Indian politics.
53:25In 2016, the BJP won on its own
53:29for the first time in Assam.
53:31Ten years later, if these numbers hold,
53:34and if again,
53:35they are poised for a hat trick of victories.
53:37And the Congress previously had won for 15 years
53:40in a row in Assam.
53:42So Assam in a way reflects
53:44just how much the map of India
53:46has changed in recent times.
53:48If you look at it,
53:49barring southern India,
53:51and even there,
53:53Karnataka has of course seen the saffron sunrise.
53:55By and large,
53:56the BJP is making gains
53:58right across the country,
54:01Assam being the latest example
54:03of the BJP's growing,
54:06in a way,
54:07growing footprint across India.
54:10So, the numbers as we stand,
54:12as per access by India,
54:14Assam going to the BJP,
54:16Tamil Nadu,
54:17possible hung assembly,
54:19but Vijay could be king or kingmaker
54:21with the DMK closed behind.
54:23You've got Kerala,
54:25which is going the way for UDF,
54:27and then the battle could be
54:28Kaun Banega chief minister
54:29with Ramesh Chanitala,
54:32KC Venu Gopal,
54:33and VD Satishan,
54:35three prime candidates.
54:37So, the Congress getting some hope there.
54:39And of course,
54:40you've got Puducherry,
54:41where again,
54:42the NDA is in the lead.
54:44All of this leaves us
54:45with the state of West Bengal.
54:47Now, Pradeep Gupta and Access My India
54:50are saying they are not giving
54:51the numbers of West Bengal yet,
54:52because they need to do more research.
54:54But remember,
54:55many of the exit polls today
54:56have given the BJP the edge there.
54:59So, who knows,
55:00you could have another tectonic change
55:02in India on the 4th of May.
55:04There's just one caveat.
55:05All of these are exit polls.
55:08The real results will come
55:10on the 4th of May.
55:11But there's plenty of talking points
55:13that have been raised
55:14by these polls.
55:16For watching,
55:17thank you very much.
55:18Stay well,
55:19stay safe.
55:20Chubratri,
55:21Jai Hind, Namaskar.
55:26Yai Hind, Namaskar.
55:27Yai Hind, Namaskar.
55:35Yai Hind, Namaskar.
55:36You
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