- 7 minutes ago
Today's Chanakya exit poll has predicted a victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party with 192 seats and a 48 percent vote share, leaving the Trinamool Congress with 100 seats.
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00:00:01Good evening, warm welcome. You're watching our rolling coverage on all the numbers that are coming in where exit polls
00:00:08are concerned.
00:00:09Mariam, me and Akshita together will be number crunching just a short while back before we've gotten into that break.
00:00:15Today's Chanakya came up with the numbers of Kerala and the numbers of Kerala as per today's Chanakya seem to
00:00:23queer the pitch in Kerala
00:00:24and suddenly making that election so much more interesting. Dead heat predicted by today's Chanakya between the LDF and the
00:00:32UDF, Mariam.
00:00:33And it's a very close contest. I would actually believe it because Pinaray Vijayan, who created history just five years
00:00:39ago,
00:00:40will not be letting go of power so easily. UDF has made the effort, but LDF certainly is very much
00:00:51on the ticket
00:00:51because, you know, 81-year-old has that recall value 40 years after that, you know, alternating of power which
00:00:59has happened in Kerala.
00:01:01This is the man who actually said history.
00:01:03No, but can I just bring the focus to Tamil Nadu briefly?
00:01:06Please, go ahead.
00:01:07Because today's Chanakya, and I think there's so much curiosity after Access My India numbers,
00:01:11let's just quickly put out the numbers of today's Chanakya on Tamil Nadu.
00:01:14Do they have a surprise in store? What's their prediction for TVK?
00:01:17Here are the numbers on your screens. The DMK is the single largest party according to the exit poll prediction
00:01:23of today's Chanakya at 125. Give or take 11 seats is essentially the margin that they are building.
00:01:30Now, the second party is TVK. TVK at 63 and then the AIA DMK Plus at 45.
00:01:38So, another exit poll, Preeti and Maria, that's predicting that the AIA DMK is down to the number 3 position
00:01:45that essentially this is a DMK versus TVK battle.
00:01:49While Access gave 98 to 120, they're saying 63, 11, give or take.
00:01:54And the gap between the TVK and the DMK is 9% of vote.
00:02:01AIA DMK at 27, DMK at 39% and TVK at 30%.
00:02:07So, what you are sensing…
00:02:08We're going to just correct, Maria. We're going to correct the numbers that are right now on our television screen.
00:02:13I think we're going to…
00:02:1363 and 45 with us today.
00:02:15That's actually 30%.
00:02:1630%. That's not seat share, that's vote share.
00:02:19I think we've got the wrong number there.
00:02:2022 up. So, we apologize. We're going to fix that.
00:02:22We apologize for that. We're going to fix that right away.
00:02:24But overall, let's give out…
00:02:25The overall, Preeti, the gap between the DMK and the TVK is 9%.
00:02:30Yeah.
00:02:30Which is not the same as Access My India, which is saying 35% to both the parties.
00:02:35Once again, before we get into more numbers, I want to go back to Akshita.
00:02:39Akshita, would you want to quickly take our viewers through what is exactly predicted by today's Chanakya,
00:02:44vote share, seat share, Tamil Nadu?
00:02:46Okay. So, vote share first. The DMK is at 39%. DMK Plus, this is with their allies, 39%.
00:02:53The TVK at 30%. Access My India said 35% for both. So, mark the difference there.
00:02:58Today's Chanakya says 39% for DMK Plus. TVK at 30%.
00:03:03The AIA DMK is 3% behind the TVK at 27%.
00:03:07So, you've got today's Chanakya predicting a slightly better tally for, in fact, the AIA DMK Plus at 27%.
00:03:15What does that look like in numbers? DMK Plus is the single largest party. DMK is the single largest party.
00:03:21Even the alliance at 125. So, they've crossed the majority mark of 118.
00:03:26TVK at 63. So, they're in the 60s range according to today's Chanakya.
00:03:30About 30 less than what Pradeep Gupta has predicted in his exit poll.
00:03:35The AIA DMK down to number 3 position at 45, Priti. So, those are the numbers.
00:03:41125, 63, 45.
00:03:42So, you have the DMK as per today's Chanakya, Maria, where it's forming the government.
00:03:49Even if the AIA DMK and the TVK come together, as per this number, they will not be able to
00:03:54challenge DMK.
00:03:55As per these numbers. So, everyone in Tamil Nadu and the DMK, where is Mr. Sarwana when you need him?
00:04:01If you are looking at these numbers, there you have it.
00:04:04This is another set of numbers completely different from what Pradeep Gupta projected yesterday.
00:04:09Once again, I would hope you will take these numbers as well with, if not a pinch, but a fistful
00:04:14of salt, Maria.
00:04:15And I am looking at the margin of error, as far as this pollster is concerned, is plus minus 3.
00:04:23So, TVK and AIA DMK are plus minus 3, are at 30%, 27%. That's the number.
00:04:29But most of the pollsters seem to be in agreement that it is AIA DMK, which is party number 3
00:04:35in Tamil Nadu.
00:04:37And TVK, which is making a debut here, a party which started only in February of 2024, is actually, has
00:04:45reached as the primary challenger, or should be seen as the prime opponent to MK Stalin.
00:04:52This is how TVK pitched the battle also, Maria.
00:04:54They said this is a battle between DMK and TVK.
00:04:57That this is just between these two parties.
00:05:00The AIA DMK constantly said, not the case.
00:05:02This is always about the two Dravidian majors.
00:05:04There is no other party that can come in and create an impact right on debut.
00:05:09Vijay, at least based on the exit poll numbers of Access My India and today's Chanakya, seems to be changing
00:05:15that particular narrative in Tamil Nadu.
00:05:16Look for Access My India, now there is that backing of one more exit poll, at least headed in their
00:05:21direction.
00:05:21But the punt of Access My India, he's hit it out of the park in terms of that projection.
00:05:25Because you still see a market difference there.
00:05:27It's a huge difference to project 63 versus a baseline of 98 to then.
00:05:33But Pradeep did say that, you know, you can give a margin of error of about 20.
00:05:37So he said, bring it down to 70 and that makes it closer.
00:05:39But then there would be a margin of error in this as well.
00:05:41Which is 11.
00:05:41Which is 11 plus 11 minus.
00:05:43So they take it up to 74 in some certain circumstances.
00:05:45Some are saying that this could possibly be a realistic number than what, you know, looks like on ground.
00:05:51But one thing is very clear, that what is unfolding in Tamil Nadu is nothing short of a phenomenon right
00:05:58now, Akshita.
00:05:59It's unbelievable.
00:06:00Unbelievable, nothing short of a phenomenon where the rise of Vijay and TVK is concerned.
00:06:04And I still remember, and I'll bring in Sumansi Raman.
00:06:06Sumansi Raman, I know you're going to say, let's wait for D-Day, 4th May.
00:06:10But I've had you so many times in my show earlier, sir.
00:06:13And most of the political analysts did not anticipate it.
00:06:17The conversations came down to there is no cadre, there is no boot level penetration.
00:06:21How can you have fan clubs running, you know, your party?
00:06:25It just will not work.
00:06:26Clearly, none of that matters when a state has decided it wants change.
00:06:31Directionally, one thing is clear, Sumansi Raman, two big pollsters, directionally, are bang on with placing TVK A ahead of
00:06:41AIDMK and over 60.
00:06:44Preeti, good luck, good luck to them.
00:06:47And this is good entertainment for the next three, four days.
00:06:49We can go on and discuss and say that, you know, Vijay is going to become Chief Minister, Prime Minister
00:06:55or whatever.
00:06:56But none of this seems to be found in any kind of logic.
00:07:02Look, let me ask you a simple question.
00:07:05The urban vote is where Vijay is stronger.
00:07:08Do we agree?
00:07:09All the pollsters agree that the urban vote is what Vijay is getting more of.
00:07:14Right?
00:07:14Sumansi Raman, when there is a wave, when there is emotions attached to your vote, then Arthamati falls by the
00:07:21wayside, sir.
00:07:21You know that better than I.
00:07:23One second, one second.
00:07:24If he is getting more of the urban vote.
00:07:30I think we have lost that connection with Mr. Sumansi Raman.
00:07:34Sir, can you hear us?
00:07:35Can you repeat that point, please?
00:07:39No, no.
00:07:40I am saying yesterday, when I asked Pradeep Gupta that question, he said it's 35% vote in urban areas
00:07:47and 33% in rural areas is what Vijay is getting, according to his poll.
00:07:51Now, the DMK is getting a higher share in the rural areas.
00:07:55Now, what makes no sense is the DMK holds the bulk of the seats in the urban areas.
00:08:00If Vijay is doing fabulously well in the urban areas, the DMK is gaining seats.
00:08:05I mean, none of this makes sense.
00:08:07No, that's because I'll tell you why, Mr.
00:08:09Sumansi Raman, if you look at the region-wise breakdown that Pradeep has given us, at least based on his
00:08:13data, he suggests that the DMK is doing very well in Delta.
00:08:17He's suggesting they're doing well in Delta.
00:08:19And I think the reason you're saying such a big dent on AIA-DMK is also because of West Tamil
00:08:24Nadu, where he says TVK, DMK and AIA-DMK, all three are suddenly players in the Congo belt.
00:08:30Okay, let me ask, can anybody list, not 60 seats, list 10 seats that the TVK is winning?
00:08:39No, no, I know.
00:08:40Forget the...
00:08:41This is the same question.
00:08:42The arithmetic doesn't work, Mr. Rahman.
00:08:44But I think very clearly, Mr. Sumansi Raman, if you ask the people of Tamil Nadu also to name 10
00:08:49candidates of the TVK, they won't be able to.
00:08:52It's on one man's face.
00:08:54It's on one man's face.
00:08:56No, no, but...
00:08:57No, no, Mr. Sumansi Raman, I'll tell you what, okay, I haven't, I don't even go to Tamil Nadu.
00:09:00You know, if you cut across, and I'll tell you one thing, I was in West Bengal and I was
00:09:04questioned whether TVK is winning or Vijay is winning in West Bengal.
00:09:07So clearly, people are talking about Vijay.
00:09:10But whoever has gone on ground, Mr. Sumansi Raman, it's not about seats.
00:09:15There seems to be a solid support for and sentiment in favor of Vijay.
00:09:22And Mr. Sumansi Raman, you acknowledged that.
00:09:24You know, I remember a month ago when you had said that not really, you know, I don't think Vijay
00:09:28will have an impact.
00:09:29Versus a week ago, you did say, look, there is a sizable impact of Vijay in Tamil Nadu.
00:09:38I think we're having a bit of a problem with his connection because he's on the road.
00:09:42But, you know, okay.
00:09:43I was wearing areas, particularly, Vijay does not have much of a presence outside the Chennai area and in the
00:09:50rural belt.
00:09:51I have never changed from this.
00:09:53It's not that I have said something else last time and now I'm changing or going back on it.
00:09:57I have said Vijay has a presence in and around Chennai, partly in and around Trichy, in and around Coimbatore,
00:10:04but certainly not in rural Tamil Nadu.
00:10:07And if he gets 30%, as this poll say, in rural Tamil Nadu, forget Pradeep Gupta's 35%, then a whole
00:10:16lot of us are going to be eating crow.
00:10:18Let me tell you this, nobody in Tamil Nadu, nobody that I know of, actually expects 35% vote share
00:10:26for the TVK in rural Tamil Nadu.
00:10:28But it is difficult.
00:10:29And I understand Subhan Si Raman.
00:10:30It is difficult for anyone.
00:10:32There is a distinction which has been made between Chanakya and Access My India.
00:10:36Their sheer approach to this entire, you know, calculation.
00:10:41Today's Chanakya is emphasizing on major castes.
00:10:45Which way it is going, while Access My India, Preeti, is focusing on demographic.
00:10:52They are looking at educated, unemployed, students, housewives, homemakers, maids, house elves, all those distinctions are being made.
00:11:01But they've got the direction, right, Maria?
00:11:02Both are seeming to suggest that TVK is going to do a lot better than anticipated by other polls.
00:11:07Yes, so even those reporters who went on the ground, they are of the opinion that they are doing better
00:11:12than most.
00:11:1425-30% is even something that Akshita has been saying for the last few weeks.
00:11:18So I'm saying that that is a sample size that we do not have.
00:11:23That we do not have that kind of a sample.
00:11:25You know, as journalists, we speak to a handful of people, but we get the direction.
00:11:29Here, the point that has been made by today's Chanakya is that the TVK is actually getting lesser number of
00:11:36Christian votes.
00:11:37than DMK.
00:11:39DMK is at nearly 50%.
00:11:41I'm Christian.
00:11:41Yeah, Christian votes.
00:11:42And TVK is just at 34%.
00:11:45And when we look at another important category, which is of the SC vote, DMK is at 43%, TVK is
00:11:52at 34%.
00:11:53So I'm looking at these two.
00:11:54And while there has been the larger broad stroke of looking at categorization, which is different in case of Access
00:12:02My India,
00:12:02here, the approach is more traditional, keeping in mind how castes vote.
00:12:07No, so I'll tell you a couple of points here.
00:12:09You know, just looking at the surface level and not really diving deep because we've just got the data.
00:12:14As far as scheduled castes goes, the fact that DMK has managed to hold on there at 43%,
00:12:19it means that the TVK at 34% has eaten, yes, but not as much into the DMK's allies' votes
00:12:25as expected.
00:12:26Largely, the suggestion all through was that TVK would do well in North Tamil Nadu at the cost of the
00:12:31VCK,
00:12:32and so would eat into the Dalit vote share.
00:12:33What you're also seeing, perhaps, perhaps looking at the data, I don't really have the breakdown,
00:12:39but when AIA DMK is at 19%, my sense is also that the Arundh Adiyar votes and the likes in
00:12:44the Kongu bed,
00:12:44which is in seats like Avinashi, that may have shifted over to the DMK, which is what's helping them to
00:12:49stick to 43%.
00:12:50You know, what's the commonality here, Maria, since we're talking about caste,
00:12:54between what Access My India has put out and today's Chanakya,
00:12:57is that minorities haven't completely swayed away from the DMK.
00:13:00This is something that Pradeep Gupta also referred to.
00:13:02The Christian vote, that's an important vote.
00:13:05So I'm very curious to know exactly how TVK and Pradeep Gupta has spoken about how TVK has done well
00:13:09in southern Tamil Nadu
00:13:10without really managing to full-on capture the Christian vote.
00:13:14So that's an interesting aspect, I think, when we see the breakdown,
00:13:17we'll be able to perhaps look into greater detail.
00:13:20But this is another poll that's seeming to suggest that TVK is doing well,
00:13:24particularly if you see the TVK doing best in the scheduled caste.
00:13:30That's the DMK's vote.
00:13:33When we're looking at the categorization, because if it is a wave election in favor of TVK,
00:13:41which is essentially saying that the...
00:13:44Suman S. Raman is joining us.
00:13:46He continues to be with us.
00:13:47Suman S. Raman, when we look at the caste breakdown,
00:13:51and particularly the Christian vote, which is very much with the DMK,
00:13:54we were expecting that it will be completely switching away or perhaps moving away from DMK.
00:13:59That's not happening.
00:14:00They are still getting 50% of the Christian vote.
00:14:03Look, if the Christian vote is moving away from the DMK,
00:14:10even partially, it affects the DMK, but not hugely.
00:14:15Because the DMK, the Christian votes decide hardly 20-25 constituencies in Tamil Nadu.
00:14:22If the Dalit vote goes away from the DMK, it makes a massive impact.
00:14:27Because today, who are the vote base of the DMK?
00:14:33It's the Dalits.
00:14:35It's the minorities.
00:14:37Minorities constitute 14% of Tamil Nadu.
00:14:39They are a huge vote bank for the DMK.
00:14:42Now, you've got to understand that if these people are being wooed by Vijay and are shifting,
00:14:50it makes no sense whatsoever to say that the DMK's vote share is so high.
00:14:55How does it make sense?
00:14:57Second, if the, I don't know what caste, today's Chanakya breakup, today's Chanakya has given.
00:15:06I don't know if you've seen Pradeep Gupta's numbers.
00:15:09He says 7% of Vaniers were interviewed in the poll,
00:15:15or he's saying maybe 7% of the Vaniers population of the state.
00:15:18Both are incorrect because that should not have been done.
00:15:21The Vaniers constitute a minimum of 12 to 13% in the state.
00:15:259% of those interviewed were Brahmins.
00:15:27Brahmins are 3%.
00:15:30None of this makes sense.
00:15:31Why is it nobody's, Mukulators, 2%.
00:15:33No, no, one second.
00:15:35Pradeep Gupta's clarified on that.
00:15:36That percentage that's written in that column,
00:15:38which led to a lot of questions about whether he's referring to the percentage of population,
00:15:42he said, no, that's a percentage that I've sampled.
00:15:44That's a sampling size.
00:15:45But I just want to, again, put out for our viewers what today's Chanakya has said.
00:15:49These are the numbers on your screens.
00:15:51Focus on the vote share here.
00:15:53At 39% is the DMK.
00:15:56So they are, at this point, leading, as per today's Chanakya, the edge to the DMK.
00:16:00What I want you to see is how Vijay has performed.
00:16:03If you had the Axis My India suggesting that TVK and Vijay would get 35%,
00:16:09today's Chanakya is now second in, you know, giving numbers to TVK.
00:16:14They have given 30%.
00:16:15And so that pushes AIA-DMK to third position at 27%, making this a very interesting contest.
00:16:22How does this turn into seats?
00:16:25If you look at seats right now, TVK then is at about 63.
00:16:29Remember, Axis My India gave 98 to 120.
00:16:3363, give or take 11 is the numbers today's Chanakya has given.
00:16:37As far as the AIA-DMK is concerned and DMK is concerned.
00:16:41First, the DMK with their allies is at 125.
00:16:43The AIA-DMK once again in third position at 45.
00:16:48AIA-DMK plus their allies.
00:16:49You know what's interesting here, Preeti and Maria, is that while you've got today's Chanakya,
00:16:54Axis My India, suggesting a similar trend as far as AIA-DMK goes, of putting them in number three,
00:16:59there are two pollsters, Votwipe as well as JVC, who've actually said AIA-DMK will emerge number one
00:17:06over DMK and TVK.
00:17:08So you've got every possible permutation or combination of exit poll right now.
00:17:13Well, you're right.
00:17:13More interestingly, Preeti, the question that you asked and even Pradeep Gupta today clarified
00:17:18that 70 could be the worst case scenario.
00:17:21You're looking at that number here.
00:17:2463 plus minus 11 is actually the worst case scenario of Pradeep Gupta.
00:17:31Is actually the best case scenario for today's Chanakya.
00:17:35Well, you're right there.
00:17:36But both of these pollsters seemingly have positioned Vijay.
00:17:40You know, they've got the direction right at least for Vijay.
00:17:43Sajan, political analyst in the studio with us.
00:17:46Interesting.
00:17:46Lots of things have happened, Sajan, in the last 45 minutes.
00:17:49Today's Chanakya, number one in Kerala, has pegged dead heat between the UDF and the LDF.
00:17:55Suddenly Kerala becomes all the more interesting.
00:17:57A Congress that was planning on who the Chief Minister is back in the game on what's really going on.
00:18:02But the numbers coming in for Tamil Nadu, because what it clearly seemed to be,
00:18:06you know, a punt many would suggest.
00:18:09Some would suggest that Pradeep Gupta had hit it out of the park.
00:18:12Either he would have had egg on his face or, you know, projecting him to be the single largest party,
00:18:17which is Vijay.
00:18:18But now you have today's Chanakya, which seems to at least go in the same direction.
00:18:23Not the numbers that possibly Pradeep Gupta projected, but still impressive 30%.
00:18:28Giving some cover fire to Pradeep Gupta that way.
00:18:31Some cover fire that he is not alone.
00:18:33But real takeaway would be that would, I mean, we do not go into the exact numbers.
00:18:38But even if we take that, yes, Vijay is expecting performing better than what was expected.
00:18:43Would AIA-DMK and TVK be able to dislodge together?
00:18:48I think it's a possibility.
00:18:50No, no, that's not how it looks like.
00:18:53It's 108 still.
00:18:55If they add up.
00:18:56And half they mark, that's what we need.
00:19:00No, sir, I'll give you another scenario then.
00:19:02Let me give you another scenario.
00:19:03Add TVK, add AIA-DMK+, throw in a few from the DMK.
00:19:08I think everyone knows what I'm referring to.
00:19:10But maybe, let's just say maybe Congress, with about 8 to 10, comes in from the DMK, moves over.
00:19:16Then you have these two plus that.
00:19:17Or maybe, after Vijay will be a little more patient because he has just had a brilliant start to his
00:19:23debut.
00:19:23No, I'll tell you he's not patient.
00:19:24Okay.
00:19:24So it is very clear, I'll be Chief Minister.
00:19:26No Deputy, none of that.
00:19:28Chief Minister only.
00:19:29But at 125, Mariya, you know, when the majority mark is 118, you're in a very precarious position as it
00:19:35is.
00:19:35You can't have one ally miffed with you.
00:19:37You need everyone together.
00:19:38But you know, my sense is, but my sense is, you know, if the DMK, if this is an exact
00:19:44poll, right?
00:19:45If this is not an exit poll and an exact poll and you have the DMK reaching halfway mark and
00:19:50reaching halfway mark, which is at 125, over 118, slim majority.
00:19:54I feel the DMK then will have enough muscle power to make sure it stays put and manages to get
00:20:02a bit of the TVK,
00:20:03because the, or some from the AIDMK into their camp and bolster that majority.
00:20:09You know, if I feel, my gut instinct is, if it is, if the DMK breaches the halfway mark, then
00:20:14enough muscle strength that the DMK has to consolidate it.
00:20:18Yes, because this is return of MK Stalin.
00:20:20He has been in power for five years.
00:20:23He is seeking re-election.
00:20:25And here is the man who's returning.
00:20:26So, someone who is an incumbent has more chance to continue with a vote share gap of 9%.
00:20:32But, you know, Akshita, the larger question is, what does it say about Tamil Nadu politics in general, if this
00:20:39is the number that we are looking at,
00:20:40and if actor Vijay will stay the course at 30%?
00:20:44No, so, I'll tell you what.
00:20:45If he doesn't stay the course at 30% and mid-election, mid, you know, in the last month.
00:20:49It's hard for him.
00:20:49You know, you're talking about Dravidian might.
00:20:51You're talking about DMK consolidating position.
00:20:53Do you think they'll let a Vijay continue to grow then till right up to the next five years, to
00:20:57the next generation?
00:20:57I'm not even getting into that.
00:20:58I'm getting into something very basic.
00:21:00Because I feel it's a political party that is entrenched.
00:21:03If they breach the halfway mark, then you cannot remove the DMK, is my gut instinct.
00:21:08The reason I'm giving you another scenario is you all know what played out before the election.
00:21:13How the DMK and Congress were fighting it out over seats and all of that.
00:21:18Here's where the buzz came from.
00:21:19The reality is that Rahul Gandhi, much like many of the Tamil Nadu Congress leaders, said, let's give Vijay a
00:21:25chance.
00:21:25Let's ally with him.
00:21:26Vijay is known to have had multiple conversations with Rahul Gandhi as well.
00:21:29They're known to have had conversations even after the Karoor Stampede.
00:21:33And so it made sense.
00:21:34Rahul Gandhi was for it, saying, let's take a chance.
00:21:35How long will we play second fiddle?
00:21:37Sonia Gandhi stepped in and showed the alliance worked out.
00:21:40So the Tamil Nadu Congress leaders are itching to switch over.
00:21:44No, but how will Congress come with AIADMK?
00:21:46And that possibility, that scenario, that scenario, you can still say holds true if you have TVK.
00:21:52Alone.
00:21:52No, if you have TVK with Pradeep Gupta's numbers.
00:21:55Yes.
00:21:56Right?
00:21:56If TVK is, if Pradeep Gupta's exit poll is exact poll.
00:22:00Can we get, can we get all the poll of polls?
00:22:02No, I'm going to do that.
00:22:03Let's pull in all the poll of polls.
00:22:04Yeah, let's get in all the poll of polls.
00:22:05I'm just going to give those numbers.
00:22:06Get in those figures.
00:22:06Get in those figures.
00:22:07Get in those numbers.
00:22:07So that we can, I don't know, look at several scenarios at this point.
00:22:11We're still three days away from results, so we can afford to do that.
00:22:14Access my India.
00:22:1598 to 120.
00:22:16And now you have someone who's at least close, Priti.
00:22:20Today's Chanakya at 63.
00:22:21So these two are close.
00:22:22The rest, of course, still way, way off.
00:22:24But you know, Maria and Sajjan, and both of you can come in on this.
00:22:27If you look at this figure, so if this is the poll, this, if this poll holds, which is
00:22:30Access my India poll holds, then the scenario that Akshita is speaking of Maria, is the Congress
00:22:35moving away from the DMK because they had a history of hedging, shall we go or shall we
00:22:40not go, is more possible than in this case.
00:22:42Because if the Congress, if Chanakya's numbers hold, then at 125, the Congress is not going
00:22:47anywhere.
00:22:48Absolutely.
00:22:48I'm very convinced with your argument, Priti.
00:22:50120, if that is the number, then we are looking at the Congress.
00:22:54Perhaps, in fact, I've been speaking to some of the Congress leaders.
00:22:57At 120, they don't need, they don't want 120.
00:23:00Like I'm saying, if it is, nobody's saying 120, Akshita.
00:23:02We are saying if it's 98, if it's 105, if it is 105, then the Congress is in a position.
00:23:07No, they don't have options.
00:23:09No, so let's say there are 98, right?
00:23:11The Congress brings what, 8 to 10?
00:23:14No, even then you get 118 that we're looking at.
00:23:16I mean, we are not just going with the exact number.
00:23:18What we are saying is, Akshita, that this is a bigger scenario for the Congress to move
00:23:22to the TVK than this scenario.
00:23:24I don't see the Congress moving to the TVK if the DMK plus breaches 118.
00:23:30Let me tell you why I'm constantly talking about Congress switching over the moment they
00:23:34get a chance.
00:23:35It's beyond the numbers right now.
00:23:37Reportedly, this is what you're hearing from Congress leaders, that they're looking at
00:23:40Akshita Vijay as someone who they're investing in.
00:23:43Investment for 2029.
00:23:45Yes.
00:23:45Investment for a star campaigner who can come out.
00:23:48As soon as Rageem Gupta's numbers came out, I spoke to a senior Congress leader from the
00:23:54state of Tamil Nadu.
00:23:55He said they are very happy with the number.
00:23:57They will need that number to shift.
00:24:01Yes.
00:24:01They will not be able to shift here.
00:24:03To look at the AIA-DMK, Akshita Vijay combination is highly unlikely.
00:24:08But that is only if there is that number.
00:24:12120 with Congress.
00:24:14I agree with Mariya.
00:24:16125, there's no way DMK is breaking.
00:24:19Look at this.
00:24:20Okay, I know what's happening right now.
00:24:23There is a fair amount of excitement because there are two scenarios playing.
00:24:27But let's bring in Akshita.
00:24:29Let's bring in Sajan who is a political analyst.
00:24:31Sajan, what do you make?
00:24:32See, that's the extreme possibility.
00:24:34But nevertheless, let's entertain it.
00:24:37Given a chance, Congress would be more than happy to switch over because of 1967.
00:24:42You know, that is the first time when Congress could never, I mean, was vanquished, was declared
00:24:48as a persona non grata, then had to, you know, accept second fiddle under Indira Gandhi.
00:24:53Yes.
00:24:54So given a chance, Congress would not lose the opportunity, you know, to promote someone
00:24:58wherein they can have the space to break the duopoly of AIA-DMK and DMK.
00:25:04Two, I mean, votaries of Dravidian politics.
00:25:07What we can clearly say now, Maria, exciting times, if TVK does as well as these two pollsters
00:25:14have projected, I would think this is a tectonic shift in the politics of Tamil Nadu.
00:25:19Not just politics.
00:25:20It's changed.
00:25:21I can only hope that there's no resort politics.
00:25:23No, no.
00:25:23It may, the heat, I can't take it.
00:25:25I'm also seeing this as a new player entering the market in 2024 is actually writing a new
00:25:31lexicon in Indian politics.
00:25:33You're right there.
00:25:34Something, yeah.
00:25:34Yes, he's writing a new chapter in Indian politics.
00:25:37No, and I'll tell you why.
00:25:38It's not just lessons for Tamil Nadu.
00:25:39I think it's lessons for the country here.
00:25:41Because, and I said this yesterday, it redefines how assembly elections are fought.
00:25:46You know, all through, in every coverage we've been to, we say the local issues matter.
00:25:50We say the local face matters.
00:25:51Nothing matters here.
00:25:52The candidate matters.
00:25:53Who they've propped up, what they promised, what kind of work they've done, all of that
00:25:57matters.
00:25:57There, ultimately, the voter says, who can help me in my house?
00:26:00You know, if this happens, those rules are completely out the window.
00:26:03Lots of rules could be out in this particular election.
00:26:06We are counting down, Maria, six minutes.
00:26:08We are going to get six minutes exactly.
00:26:09We are getting the numbers of today's Chanakya for Bengal.
00:26:13Because if this happens in the state of Tamil Nadu, what is the possibility in Bengal?
00:26:17Because the poll of polls, till this afternoon, seem to suggest that anything can happen in
00:26:22Bengal.
00:26:23Many pollsters giving BJP the end.
00:26:25So there would be, if these numbers hold, a tectonic shift, not just in Tamil Nadu politics,
00:26:31but possibly also in Bengal politics.
00:26:33Well, you know, what it will also mean, and I'll go back to Tamil Nadu, if actor Vijay wins,
00:26:38then it will be that local issues do not matter.
00:26:42Bread and butter issues do not matter.
00:26:44It is about aspiration and this magic and a promise of a new language of politics, which
00:26:51actor Vijay is actually signifying.
00:26:52He is speaking a different language.
00:26:54He is reaching out to the youth and it's the young voters in that age bracket of 18 to
00:27:0125, 26, which is largely the first time voters who are ready to bet on him.
00:27:06And they are deciding the vote of the entire household.
00:27:09So, Preeti, we have been speaking about for the longest time that it is it the Mahilal
00:27:14deciding the vote of the household.
00:27:16Now it is the youth, the Gen Z, which is deciding the vote of his parents and also the
00:27:24Kirapur, which is the textile hub of Tamil Nadu, right next to Koimathur.
00:27:28And I was stunned.
00:27:30Overwhelming support for Vijay.
00:27:31This is supposed to be an AI-ADMK bastard.
00:27:33I went into these textile hubs.
00:27:35All the men, women there said TVK.
00:27:37But what really stood out for me were these two young sisters.
00:27:40One girl is a big Vijay fan.
00:27:42And she says, I want to vote for Vijay.
00:27:44Her wallpaper, you know, her phone cover, everything is Vijay's pictures, Vijay's movies, all
00:27:48of that.
00:27:49She then, I go to her grandmother.
00:27:51Her grandmother says, I'm fed up of elections.
00:27:53I want to vote for Nota.
00:27:55And that's always been my strategy.
00:27:57She's now convinced her elder sister, her parents, her grandmother, all to come together
00:28:01and cast their vote for Vijay.
00:28:03So that's one element of it, that these youngsters are saying that we're going to take it as a
00:28:07challenge.
00:28:08Vijay, as much as you can say, is inexperienced, has actually played his cards very, very well.
00:28:13Whether it's that very simple, basic, cliché, yet one that works very well, of saying,
00:28:19vote for me.
00:28:20I've left everything.
00:28:21I've given up everything.
00:28:22Give me one chance.
00:28:23That works.
00:28:23Second is, on the very last day, his message was this.
00:28:26He said to every youngster out there, take your family, take your parents, do me one
00:28:31service, get your parents to vote for me.
00:28:33So he knew that sentiment.
00:28:34That demographic that we are looking at and also the generational shift in the language.
00:28:38Here there are two aspects, perhaps Akshita can come on.
00:28:42We have seen two sort of, two ways.
00:28:46One, we saw the divided family voting.
00:28:48So wherein you find the males voting different way, females voting.
00:28:51And other is that while there would be much more split before election, but on the day
00:28:57of election you will find that either the women or the new generation becoming the anchor of
00:29:04the family vote, household votes many times.
00:29:06Question is, if the generational cohort, that is Gen Z, they become the anchor and they end
00:29:13up pulling their parents and others, then certainly Vijay will be performing way more than expected.
00:29:19Well, at least, you know, with what Pradeep Gupta's numbers are, it is the Gen Z, the youth,
00:29:24which is pulling in the traction, possibly even their parents to vote for Vijay.
00:29:29We don't know if these numbers will hold true.
00:29:31These are just projections.
00:29:32We are counting down where at least today's Chanakya is concerned for the big number coming
00:29:37in on Bengal.
00:29:38We just had Pradeep Gupta and Pradeep Gupta from Access My India viewers has clearly said,
00:29:42I'm not getting into this.
00:29:43My people on ground are not getting the response that can assist my model.
00:29:48So, I will not project for West Bengal.
00:29:52So, Access My India and Pradeep Gupta have bowed out of projecting the West Bengal elections,
00:29:59but today's Chanakya is taking up the challenge.
00:30:01In about five, six minutes, we'll have those numbers.
00:30:04But before that, Akshita, would you…
00:30:05And despite of him claiming that he has travelled nearly 3,000…
00:30:089,000 kilometres.
00:30:09He says 80%.
00:30:109,000 kilometres and he says they're not releasing it.
00:30:14It is no more exit poll because exit poll is supposed to happen when you exit after voting.
00:30:18True.
00:30:18So, basically, he's saying that this is not happening.
00:30:21But before we get on to the numbers, let's quickly bring out the poll of polls for West Bengal.
00:30:25So, we have a sense on why there is so much buzz around the numbers in West Bengal.
00:30:31Akshita.
00:30:32Very, very interesting, Priti.
00:30:33Let me come across that.
00:30:34Tamil Nadu and Bengal, of course, are right now the numbers to watch out for.
00:30:38Today's Chanakya yet to come out.
00:30:40So, let's take a look at the rest.
00:30:41As we stand by for today's Chanakya's numbers, here's what makes it very, very interesting.
00:30:46You've got Matriz that suggests that the NDA has an edge at 146 to 161.
00:30:52You've got TMC of 125 to 140.
00:30:54If I were to just look at the overall picture right now, the one, in fact, the two pollsters who
00:31:00are giving the maximum numbers to TMC plus Priti, S.A.S. Group and Janma.
00:31:04These two numbers right here, 170, 190, 197.
00:31:07These two giving the maximum numbers to TMC, even people's pulse at 177 to 187.
00:31:12It's equally poised if you look at it.
00:31:15It's very evenly poised.
00:31:16But if you look at some of them, it looks like dead heat that there could very well be a
00:31:19hung house.
00:31:20Some of them giving a clean, you know, majority to the Bharatiya Janata Party.
00:31:24Poll diary got actually Bihar elections right.
00:31:28And poll diary this time around is giving a projection of 142 to 171.
00:31:32That means they'll breach or just about, you know, breach the halfway mark where poll diary is concerned.
00:31:39P mark is of course giving the maximum which is 150 to 175 but most others, you know, two, you
00:31:47have Janma there which is giving a clean sweep to the TMC and just 65 lesser than what it was
00:31:52the last time around, you know, for the BJP 65.
00:31:56And then you have of course People's Pulse that is again giving a comfortable majority to the Bharatiya Janata Party.
00:32:02Mariya.
00:32:02We have today's Chanakya numbers.
00:32:04Of course, we'll be putting out that data out.
00:32:07No, but go ahead.
00:32:08Go ahead.
00:32:08Give it out.
00:32:09Read it out.
00:32:1048% to the BJP.
00:32:12Today's Chanakya says it is going to be 192 plus minus 11 for the BJP.
00:32:18Wow.
00:32:18The Trinamool Congress at 38%.
00:32:21So, the vote check.
00:32:22Yes, that has been flipped.
00:32:23According to today's Chanakya, their projection is 48% to the BJP, the Trinamool Congress at 38%.
00:32:30They are giving 100 seats plus minus 11 for the TMC and BJP at 192.
00:32:37Okay.
00:32:37And that's like a number that none of these posters have.
00:32:42No, it's more than any of these.
00:32:43There is 192 you said, Mariya?
00:32:44192?
00:32:45No, no, no.
00:32:45We are looking at 192 plus minus 11.
00:32:48So, it's almost touching 200.
00:32:50Plus 11 for NDA.
00:32:51It's touching 200.
00:32:51So, basically, what the projection of today's Chanakya is, Akshita, flip it.
00:32:56Last time around 2021, vote share of the TMC was 48%.
00:33:00Vote share of the BJP was 38%.
00:33:03Exact flip.
00:33:04So, what has really happened, Sajan, in this projection is that the BJP has been able to achieve
00:33:10what many thought was insurmountable, over a 5.5% swing.
00:33:15If these numbers are true, that means that anti-incumbency, SIR process, and then the confidence of the voter who
00:33:27always used to hedge to vote to opposition since CPM days.
00:33:31True.
00:33:31That completely dissipated, and therefore, despite organizational weakness.
00:33:36Right.
00:33:36Let's quickly, you know, Sajan, stay with us.
00:33:38Let's quickly cut across to the latest numbers coming in from today's Chanakya.
00:33:41This is huge.
00:33:42Now, it's sticking.
00:33:42Yeah, it's huge.
00:33:43Huge sweep.
00:33:44Absolute sweep.
00:33:45It's sticking its neck out, saying that there is no dead heat.
00:33:48People have decided to solidly go with the Bharatiya Janata Party, 48% vote share, and the TMC at 38%,
00:33:56192 plus seats coming in for the BJP.
00:34:01That's a solid projection coming in from today's Chanakya.
00:34:05Multiple factors, Maria, that you and I were on ground.
00:34:08What this plainly suggests is that the BJP has managed to get that 5.5% swing, which many thought
00:34:14could be difficult.
00:34:15On multiple fronts, the SIR seemingly has worked, Maria.
00:34:18Let's just quickly run the numbers across first.
00:34:20Run the numbers first.
00:34:22TMC has converted its 38% vote share to about 100.
00:34:26The BJP plus at about 192.
00:34:29Others at just two.
00:34:30So, the Congress and the CPIM practically surmounting to nothing.
00:34:33It's a bipolar contest, Maria.
00:34:35What we thought.
00:34:36Now, solid consolidation in terms of polarization.
00:34:40Religious consolidation has happened in favor.
00:34:43If these numbers hold for the Bharatiya Janata Party, the anti-incumbency that we saw on ground has really come
00:34:50up and spoken.
00:34:51The SIR, you know, has worked where the Bharatiya Janata Party was concerned on certain seats where there was a
00:34:57thin margin.
00:34:58That perfect storm that one needed for the BJP seemingly now.
00:35:03We don't know about the SIR impact yet.
00:35:05It seems it will work.
00:35:06It seems it will work.
00:35:07So, the perfect storm that was needed for the Bharatiya Janata Party then.
00:35:11Okay, Preeti and Akshita, let's look at the caste numbers which have been projected by today's Chanakya.
00:35:17I think that becomes important.
00:35:18We have been discussing about the minority vote.
00:35:20It remains firmly with the Trinamool Congress, 71% as we have been discussing, firmly.
00:35:25The SC vote is at 67%.
00:35:28The OBC is at 61%.
00:35:30It is the shift in the Hindu vote which is causing that massive switch.
00:35:36The SC vote last time, Maria, because SC vote last time had gone to the BJP.
00:35:41It's the Mutua vote.
00:35:42The Mutua's this time, despite of the name cuts, mostly the Mutua vote and the Raj Banshi's.
00:35:47Both of them have gone with the BJP.
00:35:49So, EJP has held on to that vote share.
00:35:51Yes, OBC is at 61% for the BJP.
00:35:54The ST is at 53%.
00:35:55Again, the Tribals is an area which was being wooed by Mamata Banerjee.
00:36:00It stayed with Mamata Banerjee in 2021.
00:36:02But shift, no, it isn't a massive shift.
00:36:06Trinamool at 40% and BJP at 53%.
00:36:09So, there is a gap of 13%.
00:36:11A gap of 13% in what, Maria?
00:36:14In STs.
00:36:15STs.
00:36:15Is there a gender breakup?
00:36:16No, there is not a gender breakup.
00:36:18That has not been given.
00:36:19But what is interesting here is that it is a 10% gap.
00:36:24And the same voting percentage which was polled by the Trinamool Congress in 2021
00:36:30is actually going the BJP way in 2026 Assembly elections.
00:36:36And that is causing that 192 plus minus 11 for the BJP.
00:36:41Trinamool at 100 plus minus 1.
00:36:4438% is, of course, what we are looking at.
00:36:46But as we have been saying, there are multiple issues.
00:36:49There is massive anti-incumbency of 15 years.
00:36:54What is also the sense that perhaps the women of Bengal want to move away from that narrative of 1
00:37:01,500 rupees alone.
00:37:02They are of the opinion that they want more than 1,500 rupees.
00:37:06So, something that may have worked in, say, a neighbouring state of Bihar,
00:37:09where the lump sum of 10,000 rupees was given just ahead of elections.
00:37:13May could have been the game changer.
00:37:16But I can see Rahul Varma joining us.
00:37:18We also have other guests.
00:37:20R.P. Singh of the BJP join us.
00:37:23So, let me bring in R.P. Singh.
00:37:25R.P. Singh, today's Chanakya saying that it's going to be a landslide, 192.
00:37:31Something that, similar to what Mamata Banerjee got.
00:37:33She, of course, got 200 plus seats in 2021.
00:37:40Well, Maria, before I talk about what your program would do.
00:37:46And you, your posters have projected TVPK as the party.
00:37:50Audio.
00:37:51Mr. R.P. is saying there's a problem with your audio.
00:37:54You'll need to try and fix that audio.
00:37:55I want to cut across to Rahul Varma, Center for Policy Research.
00:37:59Rahul Varma, multiple factors working together.
00:38:01This would suggest a solid Hindu consolidation in favor of the Bharatiya Janata Party.
00:38:06That would mean that at least 70% of the Hindu vote has been consolidated by the Bharatiya Janata Party.
00:38:12The woman vote has shifted away from Mamata Banerjee.
00:38:15Number three, and important, that it is not just on the face of political figures.
00:38:21Mamata Banerjee is not quite a factor if these numbers hold.
00:38:24SIR has also seemingly worked for the BJP because nobody knew which way SIR would go.
00:38:30Everything coming in together makes the perfect storm if these numbers hold for the Bharatiya Janata Party.
00:38:37That is true, Preeti.
00:38:39Like, you know, you summarized everything.
00:38:41Everything coming together only can produce this kind of victory if it happens on Monday for the BJP.
00:38:50You are absolutely right about a couple of things.
00:38:53One, I think without a Hindu consolidation, BJP does not have a chance in Bengal.
00:39:00Second, if they would not have been able to break in women vote, again, they don't stand a chance.
00:39:05So those two things are definitely, like, need to happen.
00:39:08I think what also worked in favor of BJP is SIR, deletions of name, which perhaps in BJP's wisdom are
00:39:18important because any party that is strong on the ground is able to get some extra votes.
00:39:24And so BJP thinks if elections happen in this way, in a state like West Bengal, they manage to neutralize
00:39:30the advantage that TMC had.
00:39:31And the final point is basically the presence of these sort of like 2,000 plus CAPF companies.
00:39:40And also, Amir Shah saying this multiple times, that 500 companies are going to stay for 60 days even after
00:39:46the polls.
00:39:47Kind of creating that sense of security that if you vote for BJP, you are not going to be basically
00:39:54at the mercy of TMC ground level of organization.
00:39:58But, Rahul Varma, what is evident is, with 192 for the BJP, the projection which has been made, and I'll
00:40:06bring in Sajjan on this, this is an anti-Mamata wave.
00:40:10This is an anti-Trinamul Congress wave, which is a rejection of a particular kind of politics and government and
00:40:18governance to giving a chance to a party that many would say that they were being distrusted by Bengalis.
00:40:27That has not happened, Sajjan.
00:40:28If these numbers hold, then of course this is the land of Shama Prasad Mukherjee, the BJP is saying, that
00:40:35they have won the most important bastion that they have been looking for as far as the ideological presence is
00:40:42concerned.
00:40:42No, Maria, there are, we have to see how the, this anti-incumbency, which is palpitable if numbers are true,
00:40:50from October, November onward until April, it started as an anti-TMC vote, you know.
00:40:58And there was palpitable frustration with state BJP also, that people want to get rid of TMC, but do not
00:41:04see state BJP leadership as a strong, you know, presence.
00:41:08But then by March and April, when the central leadership came, anti-TMC vote started metamorphosing into pro-BJP vote.
00:41:17So that's the transition that was happening, if these numbers are true.
00:41:22My only thing is that I am looking at the data among the SC, ST and OBC, because the Muslims
00:41:28have been taken care of separately.
00:41:29You see around 60%, you know, Hindus are voting for BJP.
00:41:36I think that if we have the data for upper caste, which is not there, we would have an exact
00:41:41number.
00:41:41But with this 60%, that is 2019 election, around when BJP got around 40%.
00:41:48So if assuming out of 70%, you are getting 40%, you know, you are getting around 57 to 58%
00:41:55vote, right?
00:41:56So if it is increasing by 2% or something, then the percentage of vote and its translation into states.
00:42:04All right, okay, I'm going to just, I'm going to come in, because I think the camera needs to move
00:42:07to me,
00:42:08because Mariah needs to make a very important call.
00:42:10J.A. Suvindu Adhikari on the phone line.
00:42:12But Mariah, you go and take that call.
00:42:14And let's quickly continue this conversation.
00:42:16Maybe get him, he could possibly be the face of R.P. Singh is also with us, Preeti.
00:42:21Yes, so what is interesting here, R.P. Singh, perhaps I'll bring him now in.
00:42:25R.P. Singh, you know, this is an important, if these numbers hold, it's not what most pollsters have been
00:42:33suggesting.
00:42:33Bengal votes decisively, and when they have made up their mind to vote out a party, then they will actually
00:42:41do so.
00:42:41And in this particular case, it's not just anti-incumbency, their desire for change also comes in.
00:42:50Mariah, you are dot on.
00:42:51The fact is that there is a great mood of change in Bengal.
00:42:56I was in Bhawanipur, and I took a picture.
00:42:59I went to see a rally of Mamta Banerjee.
00:43:02And there's a picture which was there of Mamta Banerjee's rally.
00:43:05Empty chairs.
00:43:07And I met people there across the board.
00:43:09They were scared of talking, but they had made up their mind.
00:43:13I mean, you can make up that they had made up their mind not to vote for Mamta this time,
00:43:18because ultimately, how long one can bear the cut money process?
00:43:22They have seen how a woman was being treated in Bengal, how RG Khan and other rape cases happened,
00:43:29how the people were shielded by the ruling dispensation.
00:43:33And also, not only that, I mean, I happen to be in one of these high-rise,
00:43:39one of the Maraudis said that we have been told not to come and vote, but we will come this
00:43:44time, go and vote.
00:43:45We have been certain not to vote.
00:43:47So, this is how the Bengal used to be, and people have rebelled against that.
00:43:52And this is sheer repulsion against Mamta Banerjee's way of functioning, the way the TMC functions, the way the loot
00:44:00is big.
00:44:00BJP is saying that this is an anti-Mamta vote.
00:44:03Is that what essentially, if these numbers hold good,
00:44:06is that what the BJP was counting on maximum to make the most of the anti-incumbency?
00:44:11Because at the end of the day, you look at Bengal, you look at the Bengal BJP,
00:44:14they didn't really have a strong enough face to take on a Mamta Banerjee.
00:44:17Someone who's, you know, vociferous, someone who's been the face of the Trinamore Congress for so many years and held
00:44:23her ground.
00:44:24So, is it just the anti-incumbency factor as RPC...
00:44:27There are multiple factors, Akshita.
00:44:28I think one of the biggest factors is also that a face, a prominent face like Mamta Banerjee is no
00:44:34longer a decisive factor to vote in West Bengal anymore.
00:44:38But why has that changed?
00:44:38Is it just anti-incumbency?
00:44:40There are multiple factors into this.
00:44:41There's anti-incumbency and anti-incumbency, which is an anti-TMC vote.
00:44:45So, at one level, it is an anti-TMC vote.
00:44:48You know, that is there.
00:44:50Then you have a solid Hindu consolidation.
00:44:52Please understand and look at these numbers.
00:44:54If these numbers hold true, that would mean that the BJP has attained the unsurmountable.
00:44:59For now, whatever the West Bengal political mold has been, that mold will crack.
00:45:05And a certain amount of saffron politics and saffronization of West Bengal will be injected where West Bengal is concerned.
00:45:12This will be the era of majoritarian politics for West Bengal.
00:45:16No, but I wonder, when there's anti-incumbency, does it really, does Hindu-Muslim politics really work out?
00:45:21Maria, you have the poll of course.
00:45:22Everything, multiple levels.
00:45:22You know, I would say, when a state is making a transition of this nature from one side of politics
00:45:30to another, it cannot be looked at from the pure binary of Hindu-Muslim.
00:45:35There are multiple issues at play here.
00:45:38And remember, this has been an unfinished project of Home Minister Amit Shah, who started this project of Project Bengal
00:45:46or Project East India, when he was the BJP President, appointed as the BJP President in December of 2014.
00:45:53So, if these numbers hold of today's Chanakya, it would be Amit Shah who will get that crown of ensuring
00:46:00the party's victory in Bengal.
00:46:02So, let's look at these numbers.
00:46:03Today's Chanakya says that it is NDA, BJP at 192, the Trinamul Congress at 100.
00:46:09The vote share that has been projected by today's Chanakya for the BJP is 48%, for the Trinamul Congress at
00:46:15100%, at 38%.
00:46:18I've been speaking to the BJP leadership, those who have been in charge of the party, ensuring that they work
00:46:24out the maths and also the nuts and bolts, ensuring the organization is in place.
00:46:29So, all those criticism which has been there against the BJP, these numbers actually hold, then it would be that
00:46:35they have covered that distance, that what many saw as organizational weakness has been covered.
00:46:42We saw it from a distance as observers and analysts of politics, the BJP actually is a party which reworks
00:46:49and redraws.
00:46:50So, just look at these numbers again.
00:46:52Matri is actually giving the BJP 146 to 161, the Trinamul Congress between 125 to 140.
00:46:59The poll diary between 142 to 171 for the BJP and Trinamul between 99 to 127.
00:47:08People's Pulse is perhaps the best-case scenario for Trinamul Congress and also Janmat, which is saying 197 for the
00:47:15Trinamul Congress.
00:47:16SAS Group, so what you have is, let's take the upper limit in the poll of polls.
00:47:20You have today's Chanakya, that is predicted a virtual sweep by the Bharatiya Janata Party, 192.
00:47:26And TMC, 100, others just too.
00:47:28So, a washout of the Congress and the left.
00:47:31Then you look at the other extreme and then, let's say, I think that would be Janmat, if I'm not
00:47:36wrong, which is projecting 197 for the TMC and 65 for the Bharatiya Janata Party.
00:47:42But what I'm seeing here then is a Tamil Nadu-like exit poll, where every possible scenario is playing out
00:47:47in all of the data that we've put up, Hrithia Mahirya.
00:47:49No, but TMC sometimes, NDA sometimes and then those numbers are…
00:47:53AIA-DMK still is in the range of 25 to 30+.
00:47:57Yeah, and the third player, I agree.
00:48:00I'm just referring to the range and the two scenarios that are playing out, you've got both the scenarios in
00:48:05each exit poll.
00:48:06There is, because usually, you know, it's a difficult…
00:48:09It's a bipolar contest.
00:48:10West Bengal is very, very difficult to predict.
00:48:12There is a reason why you have a Pradeep Gupta who's bowed out of this contest.
00:48:16Difficult to predict.
00:48:18These are brave numbers by some.
00:48:19Today's Chanakya sticking its head out and saying nothing doing, it's going to be a clean sweep by the Bharatiya
00:48:23Janata Party.
00:48:24Like I said, this is the perfect storm.
00:48:26Every element coming together for the BJP and this is the projection that today's Chanakya has actually reached.
00:48:34So, Shuvendu Adhikari says that this will be upwards of 180 for the BJP.
00:48:38He's pretty confident, of course.
00:48:40So, he says today's Chanakya will come.
00:48:42Yeah, so according to him, that is the number.
00:48:44Mahmata Banerjee, who's also put out a video message, she's of the opinion that it's going to be higher.
00:48:50She's giving 230.
00:48:54She says that there is no anti-incumbency per se.
00:48:58But, let me bring in Sanjan who has been on ground in Bengal, travelling across Bengal.
00:49:05Can this be just about consolidation of the Hindus?
00:49:11And what happens to this entire argument of Bengali identity?
00:49:17That there is a sub-national identity.
00:49:19And that the Bengali Bhadralok was not ready to accept the BJP.
00:49:23So, one by one, let's compare it to the 2021.
00:49:272021, this what you call sub-nationalism or Bengali exceptionalism, that was the term that was used, was very stronger.
00:49:35And Bairagato versus the son of the soil, Bengal's own daughter, that narrative worked there.
00:49:42Bairagato basically outsiders.
00:49:44Outsiders, yes.
00:49:45That worked.
00:49:46Similarly, BJP being run by outsider, not being Bengali Janata party, right?
00:49:53This time you find this outsider versus insider party because BJP effectively is now a Bengali Janata party.
00:49:59Whether weak or strong, it has a pan-Bengal leadership which is there.
00:50:05Can't match the structure of Mahmata, but it is there.
00:50:07This is there.
00:50:07But nevertheless, the question is, is it just about Hindu consolidation?
00:50:11I think, yes.
00:50:13Reason may not be just Hindu identity.
00:50:15Reason may be potato farmers not getting the harvest.
00:50:17But the reason I ask that question about Hindu-Muslim is because very often when you see what is called
00:50:23in Bengali as Paribartan, change.
00:50:26And when that narrative seeps in of anti-incumbency of change, nothing matters beyond it then.
00:50:32What is the grouping?
00:50:33What kind of voting they do?
00:50:35What block they vote in?
00:50:36Does any of that count when there is an emotion against a government?
00:50:40We did not see Muslims talking in split and divergent voice.
00:50:45One has to understand the context, Akshita, of this election.
00:50:50You have 30% Muslim vote.
00:50:52You have 70% Hindu vote.
00:50:542021.
00:50:5538% exactly what opposite of what today's Chanakya has predicted was the vote share of the BJP.
00:51:0338%.
00:51:03Did it come from the Muslim vote?
00:51:05No, it came entirely from the Hindu vote.
00:51:07So therefore, if you extrapolate data, then about 55% to 56% of the Hindu vote the BJP already
00:51:14had.
00:51:14This is, you know, this would be a tectonic shift is yes, but this is also history in the making.
00:51:20Never ever has it really ever happened that one political party gets nearly 75% of the Hindu vote.
00:51:26That would happen.
00:51:27So you've got them consolidating that side.
00:51:29And then, it's not just that.
00:51:31Because there are also various other elements.
00:51:33Anti-incumbency has dug into parts which is so immense, which only bolsters all of this.
00:51:38Yes.
00:51:38Then you have SIR where we saw margins of 25,000.
00:51:42Wherever there's a slim margin, that seat of the Muslim population.
00:51:46Because there are over 100 seats that are affected by the Muslim vote.
00:51:49I counter you.
00:51:49Because if you see the breakdown of SIR deletions, it's, you know, it's in sync with the breakdown community-wise
00:51:58of Bengal.
00:51:59And that's why, if you look at it percentage-wise, there are more Hindus, there are more Hindus who have
00:52:03been removed than Muslims.
00:52:05If you look at the breakdown very clearly.
00:52:07Of course it is.
00:52:08But the proportion, you know, you're not understanding.
00:52:10The proportion of Muslims being removed is a lot more.
00:52:13And in 27 lakh deletions, there are 19 lakh Muslims.
00:52:15Why are they also from the Mottwa community removed deletions?
00:52:18Of course they are.
00:52:18Nobody's getting into that argument.
00:52:20Of course they are.
00:52:20I think to kind of skewer the data and suggest that, you know, it's one side that's been dented more
00:52:24than the other.
00:52:26Look, SIR is a process that's voter deletions.
00:52:28Now, if there are one second, Akshita.
00:52:32There are 27 lakh appeals right now that have been removed.
00:52:3535 lakh appeals right now.
00:52:3727 lakh voters have been removed.
00:52:39Out of the 27 lakh voters that have been removed under adjudication, 19 lakhs are Muslims.
00:52:45Please understand the data.
00:52:46Right?
00:52:4719 lakhs are Muslims.
00:52:48So having said that, in certain streets, and it's not, it's happened in every particular seat, it's the same number
00:52:54that has gotten deleted.
00:52:55There are certain seats and certain constituencies where the deletion is exponential.
00:52:58As it should be.
00:52:59There are certain, which it's not.
00:53:00As it should be.
00:53:00It's not.
00:53:01As it should be.
00:53:02It is not an argument on SIR.
00:53:04Let me bring in.
00:53:05If it was in sync in every seat, I would say, how is that happening?
00:53:08Okay, all I'm saying is, what has really come together, I want to bring in Rahul Varma into this conversation.
00:53:13Rahul Varma, for a moment, if you reflect on these, these numbers clearly seem to suggest everything has followed by
00:53:19the wayside.
00:53:20This is practically, if these numbers hold, is, you know, a big number projected by today's Chanakya, which would mean,
00:53:29what we were speaking of earlier, a perfect storm for the Bharatiya Janata Party.
00:53:33What Sajan was speaking of, never seen before, Hindu consolidation for the Bharatiya Janata Party in a state as well.
00:53:40Along with anti-incumbency.
00:53:42Along with the impact of SIR.
00:53:44And along with the women voters moving away from Bengal chief minister.
00:53:50So, today's Chanakya is famous or unfamous for projecting big numbers.
00:53:57And so, we have to, like, you know, be a little cautious whenever we sort of, like, read numbers.
00:54:05Because there is no detail behind this number.
00:54:08Anyone can say any number, right?
00:54:11But I won't know how many people they sampled, how many voters they spoke into.
00:54:17All of you were on the ground.
00:54:19Did you see something like this?
00:54:21Right?
00:54:22There has to be, like, some collaboration.
00:54:26No, no, let Mariah Preeti then answer that.
00:54:28Did you see something like this?
00:54:29Rahul Varma, anti-incumbency was palpable.
00:54:32No, no.
00:54:32There were people who were speaking against the Trinamool Congress.
00:54:37There were women who were speaking against the idea that 1,500 rupees is not enough.
00:54:43So, when we look at multiple vote banks, the shift was also evident.
00:54:47Riti, you think so too?
00:54:48Well, you know, I'll tell you what I think.
00:54:50What I saw.
00:54:51Did I see consolidation where the Hindu vote was concerned?
00:54:54Definitely I saw consolidation.
00:54:56And I'll draw a parallel.
00:54:57Because, Rahul, you also covered, you know, you also looked at Bengal in the 2021 elections.
00:55:02What you saw in terms of, and I'll give you an example.
00:55:05I remember I was going through Birbhoom.
00:55:06What you usually see in Hindu households is that little tulsi outside every household,
00:55:11which is the hallmark of the rural belt where the Hindu population lies.
00:55:15For the first time, what I saw was the angry Hanuman flag.
00:55:18What I saw was saffron flags all over.
00:55:21Which is different, which is new.
00:55:22You also thought that it is the, you know, cultural shift, which you saw in certain pockets.
00:55:27Where the TM's, the BJP had dug itself in.
00:55:31And this is something I've said repeatedly.
00:55:33Anti-incumbency was like a rage.
00:55:35And I think, Maria, you and I discussed this as well.
00:55:37The woman vote is what I thought was silent.
00:55:39Something which possibly Pradeep has also said.
00:55:42Pradeep Gupta.
00:55:42The woman vote was silent.
00:55:44In the urban belt, that woman vote spoke up.
00:55:47Especially in the issue of women's safety against the incumbent government.
00:55:51You also had a section in the urban belt, when you went into the slums, where the woman vote was,
00:55:56which came out strongly in support of Mamata Banerjee.
00:55:59So that, where the woman vote lay, was the question, Rahul.
00:56:03Over to you, because you asked us what we saw.
00:56:06See, without all of this coming together, BJP cannot get this number.
00:56:13There is no doubt in my mind about that.
00:56:15I wrote a whole article on 23rd of April saying, can BJP breach electoral wall?
00:56:22The answer was, yes, it is possible, right?
00:56:24But the possibility of BJP basically reaching to majority mark and whether they can touch 200 plus
00:56:33are two very different things.
00:56:36Bengal's demographic composition, the way sort of like communities are placed in different
00:56:42pockets of this state, it does not allow, like, it's just structurally is very, very difficult
00:56:48for BJP to cross the 200 mark.
00:56:51So, I'm not saying it's impossible.
00:56:54All I'm saying, it's like, the probability of something like this happening is very low.
00:56:59Now, can it happen?
00:57:00Rahul, you are saying you don't quite agree with these numbers.
00:57:03Is that what you're saying?
00:57:05I'm saying that there is no detail to, like, agree.
00:57:08See, like, most people...
00:57:12It doesn't add up.
00:57:13Is that what you're saying?
00:57:14Yeah.
00:57:14Large number of people reported that there is anti-incumbency, right?
00:57:18No, but, Triti, I remember when you had told me, too, about the arithmetic point.
00:57:24Make your point, Rahul.
00:57:26See, think of it.
00:57:28Bengal is a unique state.
00:57:31Between 1977 and 2026, 50 years, there was change of power only once in 2011.
00:57:37I'm not saying the change of power cannot happen in 2026, right?
00:57:42But change of power in Bengal, hegemonic parties cannot be defeated.
00:57:46Oh, I'm unhappy with my government.
00:57:47It requires a lot more things for that to happen.
00:57:50And so, when I agree, anti-incumbency, SIR, presence of ground forces,
00:57:56women basically saying we need more, right?
00:57:59All of these has become together.
00:58:00Rahul, what is the past precedent?
00:58:01And Sajan and Rahul can come in.
00:58:02I just want to ask Sajan.
00:58:04Maybe you can take that question.
00:58:05What has been the past precedent where a political party has practically garnered,
00:58:09in a single election, over 70% of the Hindu vote?
00:58:12See, that was a wave.
00:58:1477 was the, I mean, when Janata Party decided not to give 50% seat to CPM,
00:58:19they contested alone.
00:58:20But so much was anti-congressism.
00:58:22That it was a wave.
00:58:23Post Nandigram and Singur, when Mamata contested, right?
00:58:27Then there was not 70%, but it was almost two-third of Hindus who voted.
00:58:32But these parties were catering to 100% votes.
00:58:36True.
00:58:36Mind it.
00:58:36True.
00:58:37Not just 70%.
00:58:38So, for BJP to, I mean, have this number, they needed way more consolidation of Hindu,
00:58:43which was there on the ground.
00:58:45Now, point is, if we go by Chanakya's data,
00:58:48they have given SCST, OBC percentages.
00:58:50Not upper caste.
00:58:51Not upper caste.
00:58:52Now, if I calculate, it is coming 60%, exactly 60% for BJP,
00:58:57and 30% for TMC.
00:59:0010% is going, perhaps, which they have not, two others.
00:59:02Now, with 60%, you cannot have 48%.
00:59:06Because if 70% are the Hindus, 60% is 42%.
00:59:10So, which means, upper caste are voting almost 90%, 95%.
00:59:17No, but let's look at also this argument.
00:59:20Yeah, you're right.
00:59:20So, it's a total conversion, is what you're saying there.
00:59:23So, Bhadralop, has Bhadralop completely flipped?
00:59:26Yes, flipped.
00:59:26So, my question then would be, that is it not possible that in elections of this nature,
00:59:32when there is almost like a shift from sub-national identity to the larger nationalism or Hindu identity,
00:59:42then it will not be about pure arithmetic, it will be about sentiment.
00:59:47And this is what seems to be working out.
00:59:49It is sentiment at play, rather than arithmetic, where we can do plus or minus.
00:59:53I agree, 100%.
00:59:54This is a wave election for the Bharatiya Janata Party.
00:59:56If you go by these numbers, you know, once again, please take it with a pinch of salt.
01:00:02Let me also, please, welcome, Gaurav Savant, our senior managing editor who joins us.
01:00:06Gaurav, you've been looking at the numbers very closely.
01:00:08What do you make of it?
01:00:09You have at one end today's Chanakya, who has once again queered the pitch,
01:00:14because till now it seemed to be dead heat.
01:00:18Today's Chanakya decisively has said that it is going to be Modi Sarkar
01:00:23in West Bengal.
01:00:24You know, it's very interesting.
01:00:26So, now it remains to be seen whether these numbers hold,
01:00:29that it's going to be chemistry or arithmetic.
01:00:32If the chemistry works, then these numbers hold.
01:00:35If it's just arithmetic, then it's that dead heat,
01:00:382% here, 2% here, 3% here.
01:00:40That's the conversation like.
01:00:42But what is extremely interesting,
01:00:43some of the questions that were being raised about
01:00:45the deployment of the security forces.
01:00:48And we were going, you know, in depth on
01:00:51why were these security forces deployed in Bengal.
01:00:54Yesterday, we heard Mamata Banerjee very upset
01:00:56when she came out of Bhawanipur after voting,
01:00:58saying, unprecedented, I've never seen this kind of security forces
01:01:01being deployed in the state.
01:01:04And then we just went a little in depth to see
01:01:06why were security forces actually deployed in these numbers.
01:01:09Now, when you go and look at past elections,
01:01:12and since everyone's covered elections in Bengal
01:01:15on ground in the past,
01:01:17look at the violence and look at the statistics
01:01:19that come out of Bengal.
01:01:21I mean, we all know Bengal actually is the most violent state
01:01:24in our country.
01:01:26Politically violent.
01:01:28Politically the most violent state in our country.
01:01:31Around poll days.
01:01:32Post-poll and pre-poll violence.
01:01:33Look at the armed conflict location and event data.
01:01:37Bengal leads poll violence in India.
01:01:40And the Trinmul Congress incidentally,
01:01:42and this is data that's publicly available,
01:01:45it's involved in 64% of poll violence in the past decade.
01:01:49Bengal, why is it looked at most violent
01:01:51in 16 elections in large states in 10 years?
01:01:54But that's been, you know, but one second,
01:01:55there has to be a cultural context to it.
01:01:57And I'll bring in the...
01:01:58Whatever be the context,
01:01:59you deploy security forces to prevent that.
01:02:01Because it's not just something
01:02:03that has happened in the last 15 years.
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