00:00Let's quickly cut across to the latest numbers coming in from today's Chanakya.
00:03This is huge, Trigy.
00:05It's huge, Trigy.
00:05The UJP sweep, absolute sweep.
00:07It's sticking its neck out, saying that there is no dead heat.
00:10People have decided to solidly go with the Bharatiya Janata Party, 48% vote share
00:15and the TNC at 38%, 192 plus seats coming in for the BJP.
00:23That's a solid projection coming in from today's Chanakya.
00:27There are multiple factors, Mariah, that you and I were on ground.
00:30What this plainly suggests is that the BJP has managed to get that 5.5% swing,
00:35which many thought could be difficult on multiple fronts.
00:38The SIR seemingly has worked, Mariah.
00:40Let's quickly run the numbers.
00:44TNC has converted its 38% vote share to about 100.
00:48The BJP plus at about 192.
00:51Others at just 2.
00:52So the Congress and the CPIM practically surmounting to nothing.
00:55It's a bipolar contest, Mariah.
00:57What we thought?
00:58Now, solid consolidation in terms of polarization.
01:02Religious consolidation has happened in favor,
01:05if these numbers hold, for the Bharatiya Janata Party.
01:08The anti-incumbency that we saw on ground has really come up and spoken.
01:13The SIR, you know, has worked where the Bharatiya Janata Party was concerned
01:18on certain seats where there was a thin margin.
01:20That perfect storm that one needed for the BJP seemingly now.
01:25I don't know about the SIR impact yet.
01:27No, it seems it will work.
01:28It seems it will work.
01:29So the perfect storm that was needed for the Bharatiya Janata Party there.
01:33And Akshita, let's look at the caste numbers which have been projected by today's Chanakya.
01:39I think that becomes important.
01:40We have been discussing about the minority vote.
01:42It remains firmly with the Trinamool Congress, 71% as we have been discussing firmly.
01:47The SC vote is at 67%.
01:50The OBC is at 61%.
01:52It is the shift in the Hindu vote which is causing that massive switch.
01:58The SC vote last time, Mariya, because SC vote last time had gone to the BJP.
02:02It's the Mutwa vote.
02:04The Mutwas this time, despite of the name cuts,
02:06mostly the Mutwa vote and the Raj Banshees.
02:09Both of them have gone with the BJP.
02:11So EJP has held on to that vote.
02:13Yes, OBC is at 61% for the BJP.
02:15The STs are at 53%.
02:17Again, the Tribals is an area which was being wooed by Mamata Banerjee.
02:22It stayed with Mamata Banerjee in 2021.
02:24But it isn't a massive shift.
02:28Trinamool at 40% and BJP at 53%.
02:31So there is a gap of 13%.
02:33A gap of 13% in what, Mariya?
02:36In STs.
02:37Is there a gender breakup?
02:38No, there is not a gender breakup.
02:40That has not been given.
02:41But what is interesting here is that it is a 10% gap and the same voting percentage which was
02:49polled by the Trinamool Congress in 2021 is actually going the BJP way in 2026 Assembly elections.
02:57And that is causing that 192 plus minus 11 for the BJP.
03:03Trinamool at 100 plus minus 1.
03:0538% is of course what we are looking at.
03:08But as we have been saying, there are multiple issues.
03:11There is massive anti-incumbency of 15 years.
03:15What is also the sense that perhaps the women of Bengal want to move away from that narrative of 1
03:23,500 rupees alone.
03:24They are of the opinion that they want more than 1,500 rupees.
03:28So something that may have worked in say a neighboring state of Bihar where the lump sum of 10,000
03:33rupees was given just ahead of elections may, could have been the game changer.
03:37Yeah.
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