- 14 minutes ago
Exit poll projections for the 2026 Tamil Nadu assembly elections indicate a potential shift in the state's political landscape. Axis My India projects a significant debut for actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), predicting the party could secure between 98 and 120 seats with a 35 percent vote share.
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00:13I
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00:18I am a fan and I am a fan of my friends.
00:27Now I am going to get to wait for the girl.
00:30Parambur
00:34Tirichi Kayaq
00:38C. Joseph Vijay
01:31Hello everyone, good evening.
01:33The biggest surprise of all the exit polls is coming in from Access My India, which has
01:39predicted TVK's not just debut, but a phenomenal one at it in this election.
01:48Tamil Nadu's political script seems to be changing and this time it's not the usual players rewriting
01:54it.
01:54For decades, remember, the battle has been predictable.
01:57DMK versus the AIA.
01:58DMK largely the two dividend parties, but 2026 is shaping up to be very different because
02:04a superstar has stepped in and what once looked like a dramatic entry is now turning into a
02:10serious power play.
02:11In fact, what we're seeing, Maria, the focus is, of course, first day, first show, super
02:17hit.
02:18If you look at at least the exit poll numbers that we're putting out.
02:21You know, we're not saying that these numbers are 100% precise.
02:25These are numbers put forth by Access My India.
02:27But what it suggests is that the entry of Vijay isn't just a disruption, isn't just a vote
02:34cutter.
02:34It could very well be much beyond that.
02:37We could be looking at an election that's defined by the V factor, by the Vijay factor.
02:43What are the numbers like, Maria?
02:45Let's run our viewers through that.
02:46Yes, so Access My India is saying that this disruptor of Tamil Nadu politics could very
02:52well be the king, not just the kingmaker, with a vote share of 35%.
02:58Access My India, one of the pollsters which is largely trusted and has got most elections
03:05barring few wrong, is saying that DMK plus will be between 90 to 210 at 35% vote share.
03:12Vijay's TVK will be surging at the same vote share, 35% between 98 to 120 and AIA DMK will
03:22be trailing at the third place between 22 to 32.
03:26So what has happened is that if these numbers actually hold, AIA DMK has collapsed and its
03:33loss is Vijay's gain.
03:35Absolutely.
03:36So if you look at these numbers and really break down the data that's come with it,
03:41TVK is gained in rural, which means it's not just an urban sweep over or an urban phenomena
03:47where they're hitting the DMK, but they've gained in rural.
03:50Women, youth, keep talking about the gentrification of this election, that's made a difference as
03:55far as numbers go for the TVK.
03:57This is what Access My India says.
03:59That's how they've attributed this mega blockbuster debut for Vijay.
04:04At 98 to 120, Maria, while all of us spoke of the V factor, the Vijay factor, I don't
04:10think any of us put this kind, pegged them at this kind of a number of 98 to 120.
04:16So all the parties are surprised, not just in Tamil Nadu.
04:21Yeah.
04:21So this could be the tectonic shift happening in Indian politics, not just the state of Tamil
04:28Nadu.
04:28So before I bring in the guests, here's a report of the prediction of Access My India.
04:38What once sounded like speculation is now looking like reality.
04:45Tamil Nadu could be heading for a political earthquake in 2026.
04:50For the first time in 70 years, the iron grip of the DMK-AIDMK duopoly is under serious threat.
04:57And at the centre of it all is Thalapati Vijay.
05:02Why?
05:03Because Access My India has come up with an explosive projection.
05:08A projection that paints a stunning picture.
05:11It has given DMK plus 92 to 110 seats.
05:15Vijay's party TVK, a surging 98 to 120.
05:21AIDMK is trailing far behind at just 22 to 32.
05:26The vote share tells the same story.
05:29Both TVK and DMK locked at 35% vote share and AIDMK at 23% vote share.
05:37There's also another headline.
05:40Vijay emerging as the most preferred CM of Tamil Nadu at 37%.
05:44With MK Stalin at 35% and AIDMK General Secchi EPS at 22%.
05:50The projections are here and it is clearly going to be a neck and neck battle between TVK and the
05:56DMK.
05:57This leaves us with a big question.
06:00Is a fractured mandate and a massive twist on cards?
06:03Well, going by these numbers, Vijay may not just be the kingmaker, but could actually be the king.
06:10But it's not a clean sweep across board.
06:13While Access My India has put TVK ahead, other surveys still bag DMK return.
06:18One survey even points to a sharply different outcome.
06:21With AIDMK winning the Tamil Nadu polls.
06:27From real to real Janan Aigan, Vijay is no longer a newbie.
06:32He's here to shape outcomes.
06:34And 2026 could be his ultimate blockbuster.
06:39Bureau Report, India Today.
06:45And what a phenomenal debut it has been.
06:48So if these numbers actually hold, then it's the only parallel that has been there in Tamil Nadu history, Akshita,
06:57is 1983 moment of NTR.
07:00So as a reporter who has been crisscrossing the state of Tamil Nadu, before I bring in the guests, I
07:06want to understand from you,
07:07why would, I understand that, you know, particularly among the Gen Z and the youth voters,
07:12there would be this, you know, freshness for Vijay.
07:16Why would women voters who are the beneficiaries of the state scheme move towards a newbie?
07:23I don't think there's much of an anti-incumbency factor at play here, Madhya.
07:27That very often you'll say, okay, change is attributed to anti-incumbency.
07:30Tamil Nadu, not really the case.
07:32If these numbers hold, I will constantly add that caveat that this is Access My India's exit poll.
07:37If these numbers hold, the sense I get is that people wanted to give Vijay an opportunity, a chance.
07:42You're right, there's a certain restlessness in Tamil Nadu's youth that may be reflecting and translating to numbers for Vijay.
07:48As far as the women vote goes, a couple of factors to keep in mind here.
07:52Yes, the DMK did give out and they have the Maghalir Dittam that's been on for the last many months.
07:58But they did give that bumper bonus also just before the election season was announced.
08:03Did that sway women voters? I'd reckon that it happened a bit too early in the election, season one.
08:08Second is the fact that Vijay didn't hold back.
08:10He also went ahead and promised exactly what the DMK or for that matter the AI DMK promised.
08:15He knew full well that those are game-changer schemes.
08:18And so as much as he's promised a different kind of politics,
08:21those are the variables on which it's pretty much the same constant that he's followed as well.
08:25So he's played his cards right in that sense, where he's projected himself as a unique choice,
08:30but where it mattered, he's followed the tune, he's followed the route of the Dravidian parties.
08:35So for the women, they don't lose out by voting for Vijay.
08:37They get those perks plus they get the change they seek.
08:40Yes, and at the same time, Akshita, as observers of politics,
08:45we have seen a great degree of caution in his campaign also.
08:48When he attacked the Chief Minister, there was no cultural attack.
08:52Because he understood that as far as the Dravidian politics is concerned,
08:57he is also as much the custodian of it,
08:59but perhaps he wants to look at the Dravidian politics with a fresh lens.
09:03Let's bring in columnist R Rangarajan, who joins us.
09:07We also have Pula Rao joining us on this broadcast political analyst.
09:11Pula Rao, beginning with you, if these numbers hold of Access My India,
09:16then what are we seeing in the context of Tamil Nadu?
09:19What would you say what has happened?
09:20Well, first of all, it seems very simple.
09:23He must be if, if, if, a big if.
09:26You have rightly said the propolster has done some good surveys on some bad surveys.
09:31If it is, obviously, TVK has gained the allies of DMK and ADMK.
09:37You can cross-check that.
09:39All those weak people, it might have taken over.
09:41Secondly, you know, it is very easy to say the opposition was divided.
09:46Perhaps all the ADMK would transfer it here because they didn't want a divided opposition.
09:52And yet, I would still say it is not such a simple state, Tamil Nadu.
09:56The same kind of politics have been going on for 100 years.
10:00The same factors are there.
10:01And you rightly put it that Vijay did not culturally distance himself from anything,
10:06anything, you know, from all the Dravidian stuff.
10:09But it's very hard to believe.
10:10And if he has made some success, he must have defeated all the allies.
10:14Because even in Perimbor, where he's standing, he's facing PMK.
10:18So, therefore, that's what we have to look for.
10:20Perhaps the DMK did suffer a little bit because of the 60 MLA seats which they gave the allies,
10:26just as the ADMK was forced to fork out another 70 seats to allies who are weak but who had
10:32bargaining power.
10:33Therefore, that's the only thing I can understand.
10:36He has not made any great inroads.
10:38You know, he's not, you know, nice to say the youth and women like it.
10:41No, but Mr Pullar, how you actually, you look at the details.
10:43And since, you know, we've had that one hour breather or so to go through the data
10:46that Pradeep Gupta has put out to back these numbers of 98 to 120.
10:51Many would say, you know, it's outlandish to give these figures to Vijay.
10:54Here's how he's backed it.
10:56He says it's not just the urban vote but also the rural vote that's very clearly swung in Vijay's favour.
11:02There were a lot of questions about whether the TVK and Vijay's popularity would actually seep down to the rural
11:07pockets.
11:08According to him, it very much has.
11:10So while you see him cutting DMK's water in urban pockets,
11:14Chennai, for example, which the DMK in 2021 swept, all 16 went to the DMK.
11:18This time there's a Vijay factor.
11:20And then in the Kongu Belt, which is where the AIA DMK usually holds fort,
11:25there too Vijay has managed to seep in and sweep.
11:28So if you look at these factors, it looks like, yes, he's dented the DMK and AIA DMK.
11:32To me, Maria, the fact that you're seeing a bigger impact on AIA DMK essentially translates to this,
11:37that the AIA DMK simply couldn't afford any impact or any factor really denting them.
11:43They were weak on their own.
11:44And then you add a factor like Vijay, who's already powerful, influential, very big face,
11:48everyone is talking about what kind of an impact he will have.
11:51So then you have a weakened party, further being weakened by this external element that's come in.
11:56That's what explains what's happened to the AIA DMK.
11:58When we were to look at this 2021 data, the vote share gap between the DMK and AIA DMK is
12:04just 6%.
12:05Yeah, that's plus.
12:07If you actually look at it, it's 3% between the DMK and AIA DMK.
12:10Yes, and TVK at 0% because that was really not a party.
12:14Now, the TVK is at similar vote share as the party in power, that is the DMK.
12:21That is as per the projection of Access My India.
12:23And if we were to break that data further down, be it the SCST,
12:30not just the constituency which was largely predicted that he will get the minority Christian vote,
12:37here is TVK in its very first debut.
12:40Mr. Rangarajan, is actually winning across castes, across communities.
12:47So what do you think has worked for actor Vijay?
12:50Is it newness, freshness, enigma?
12:53How do you describe this phenomenon?
12:56Thanks for having me on the show.
12:58It is indeed a surprising exit poll.
13:02You know, as somebody who has been following politics for many years,
13:05is the first exit poll that I personally and many of us look forward to is Pradeep Gupta's poll
13:10because, you know, he has built that credibility over years.
13:15But here, it is much to the surprise of everyone.
13:20I mean, clearly, it was clear right from the beginning that Vijay and TVK party,
13:26you know, they were not merely spoilers.
13:29They were definitely disruptors.
13:31But whether there could be challengers to this extent is something, you know,
13:35and as Akshita was saying, there is always this 10% vote, 10 to 15% vote in urban areas.
13:42And I always have this theory that, you know, urban voters, middle class and upper middle class
13:50and many others, who are not largely dependent on state for their livelihoods,
13:56be it schools, be it colleges, be it healthcare, but they do want good governance.
14:02So they are not, they are looking for change.
14:05And there is this 10 to 15% vote for taking for anybody who gives a different narrative in the
14:10urban areas.
14:11So everybody expected TVK to do phenomenally well as a debutant in urban areas.
14:17But I think what has been surprising in this exit poll is the impact it is believed to have had
14:25even in the rural areas, you know.
14:27As I told you, there is a lot of credibility for Access My India exit polls and Mr. Pradeep Gupta.
14:33But we will have to take this with a pinch of salt and wait till May 4th.
14:36No, I 100% agree with you that we have to take this.
14:39Yeah, with a bag full of salt, if you will.
14:42Because, you know, these are exit polls.
14:44They are not concrete.
14:45They are predictions.
14:46Sometimes we get right, sometimes we don't really.
14:48Yes, Mr. Rangaraj.
14:49Yeah, but what has worked for TVK and Mr. Vijay, he is a very, very popular star.
14:55I think you cannot compare him with...
14:56There's no doubt about that.
14:57You know, but quite honestly...
15:00I think he...
15:04Youth has been supportive and the women have also been great.
15:07So, youth and women is one factor.
15:09Youth and women definitely are factors.
15:11But can they help in a wave?
15:13Can they help in, you know, dethroning the likes of DMK and EI-DMK is really the question here.
15:18What doesn't add up to me, Malia, is if you look at the vote share.
15:21The vote share of the DMK Plus and the TVK, according to Access My India, is at 35%.
15:29Both are at 35%.
15:30And the suggestion, therefore, from Pradeep Gupta, from Access My India, is that while both
15:36of them have the same vote share, it's actually TVK that's actually managed to convert that
15:41into a healthy, you know, seat share.
15:44One of our seats.
15:44Which, you know, you look at it, the fact...
15:47No, I agree.
15:48I agree that there is usually that difference.
15:49But you'd think it'd be the other way around.
15:51The biggest challenge for Vijay is to actually consolidate, is to ensure that vote share
15:55translates to seat share.
15:5635% many would have said that, look, it's possible that Vijay can get that.
16:00The number of 98 to 120 is what stuns you, is what is astounding.
16:03Because the fact that he can get that number of consolidation, even more consolidation than
16:07the DMK.
16:08And don't you think that also requires organizational presence?
16:10Yeah.
16:11We often speak about in the context of, you know, new parties.
16:14And dedicated vote banks.
16:15And dedicated vote banks, which Vijay doesn't have.
16:17You know, he is obviously a phenomenon that goes beyond those vote banks.
16:20But to consolidate into seats, the fact that, according to this poll, he's doing it better
16:25than the DMK and their allies, that's caught me a little off.
16:28Okay.
16:28So perhaps Rangarajan could respond to that.
16:31That, you know, here is actor Vijay.
16:34I'm not too sure what is the nature of this organization of the TMK.
16:38You know, TVK.
16:40In terms of the penetration that it would have across these seats that they are contesting
16:45from.
16:46And to ensure that, you know, fandom being converted into voters is a long, you know, it's, it's,
16:54it is, it takes time.
16:56But he has managed to do so in the very first election.
16:59Absolutely.
17:01If these numbers hold again.
17:02And, and yeah, yeah, absolutely.
17:04And, you know, the fact that, you know, I vote in one of the suburbs of Chennai and I
17:11did not find any booth agent of TVK inside my booth.
17:13I don't think they are booth agents.
17:15Which constituency are you in?
17:17I vote in Tirvatiur, which is, which is in the northern part of Chennai.
17:21It doesn't come technically under the 16th seat of Chennai, but it is very much a suburb
17:25of Chennai under the Chennai Corporation.
17:26And so there is, there is, there is not big organizational strength.
17:32And if this urban-rural difference is bound to be there, irrespective of the swing in favor
17:39of TVK as per the exit poll, then it's quite possible if this has to hold, TVK and Vijay
17:45may be picking up more than 40, 45 percent in urban areas, you know, and 25 plus in rural
17:52areas to get an overall share of 35 percent.
17:55And so 98 to 120, if you look at it, when I was doing the math on each of these
18:01seats,
18:01individual seats, the TVK will need 30 percent plus.
18:05On each seat, they'll need 30 percent plus to register a win.
18:08So if we're suggesting 98 to 120 for Vijay, that ultimately means the TVK, and mind you,
18:14each one of those seats, not on the local candidate, on Vijay's face, every time you see the whistle
18:19symbol, they've associated it with one face, Vijay's face.
18:22And so just for Vijay, they've managed essentially in 98 to 120 seats, getting a 30 percent plus
18:28vote share in each individual seat.
18:31That's unfathomable, Maria.
18:33And in an assembly election where you're always taught the rules of the game are that local
18:37candidate matters, it goes completely against everything we know about how these elections
18:41work then.
18:42Raul Verma joins us on this broadcast.
18:45He's the fellow at the Center for Policy Research.
18:47We also have Professor Sandeep Shastri, election analyst and vice president of NITT University.
18:54Professor Shastri, of course, this is an outlier, something which has sent shockwaves across
19:00the country, not just in Tamil Nadu.
19:04What are the chances of this coming true?
19:08What do you think would have worked?
19:09And what all must work for Actor Vijay to register this kind of debut?
19:21I would not take it with a bag of salt or a pinch of salt.
19:24I would take it with a handful of salt only, which is, I see the trend which the access by
19:33India poll shows, but I would not give the level of intensity that it indicates for several
19:40reasons.
19:41Number one, this is a first-time player.
19:44This is an untested player.
19:46And to accept that untested and untested and captured one-thirds of the group share, I
19:57have a challenge accepting that, especially when you have other...
20:02Mr. Shastri, we're having a bit of a problem with your connection.
20:05We're going to fix that.
20:06But I like the way you've given us a measure of salt to understand what really people think
20:11of the poll.
20:12So, if Mr. Rahul Verma is with us, Varya, can we ask him, what's your measure of salt,
20:17Mr. Verma, when you look at these numbers?
20:19Is it a handful, fistful, sack, bag of salt?
20:22Which is it?
20:22Pinch?
20:24I'll leave it to you.
20:25Whichever measure you like, please go ahead with that.
20:28What do you think?
20:28I'm asking you, what do you think?
20:30Do you accept these numbers as they are?
20:32Do you think that, you know, it's a little iffy?
20:34Like, these are projections.
20:35And I don't want to discuss projections as if they are final results.
20:40Right?
20:40So, there are many ifs and buts.
20:44And so, whether this will hold or not, that's the first question.
20:48I think, let's start with this.
20:51First point is that anyone who travels through Tamil Nadu would know that DVK has a good sort
21:00of like traction.
21:01Now, whether that traction is 15%, 20%, 30%, or 35% as we projected, that's hard to know.
21:11And we will only get to know the real picture on May 4.
21:14So, second point, as far from this projection, what seems to be happening, that TVK is hurting
21:22AIDMK much more than VMK.
21:24And that, in some ways, is what the bag of salt is.
21:30Because, in any situation, when a new player enters and enters in this big way, there has to be a
21:39serious anti-incumbency against the government.
21:42Debutant, even Arvind Khejriwal, when he entered, or NT Rama Rao in 1983, or AGP in 1985, or 1977 MGR,
21:52whenever the debutant entered and makes a big splash, there has to be a big anti-incumbency.
21:58So, I don't understand why then DMK is not getting hurt.
22:03No, so the way I see it, sure, okay.
22:07The third point is, if like a new debutant like TVK is likely to have much more resonance in urban
22:16areas, and yes, youth is much more likely to vote, especially TVK given sort of like his popularity.
22:25An AIDMK is much more of a rural Tamil Nadu, western sort of like Tamil Nadu.
22:31You know, the data that we have on our television screens is actually very, very fascinating.
22:36That this recall or resonance that you're talking about, just look at it, Akshita, 18 to 19 age group, that
22:42is the first-time voter, 68%, 20 to 29, perhaps the third or the fourth-time voter is 59%.
22:48It's in that age group of 50-plus who are being cautious.
22:53This is for Vijay?
22:54No, this is, I think, the overall age-wise vote share.
22:57Yes, so for Vijay.
22:58We are looking at it in terms of actor Vijay.
23:01So, it's essentially the first-time voter is overwhelmingly in favour of him.
23:06So, Gen Z, and I don't know if this counts as Gen Alpha, but they're overwhelmingly for Vijay.
23:12The youth factor has worked for him, the women factor has worked for him.
23:16I think the other aspect of this is whether there was anti-incumbency against the DMK, Mr Rahul Varma.
23:21To me, the sense is that there was anti-incumbency against the Dravidian parties.
23:25And this was anti-incumbency, you could say, of decades that's essentially built, that we need an alternative, we need
23:31a change in politics.
23:32You could argue that Kamal Hassan tried to bring that, but Kamal Hassan had different factors going for him and
23:38going against him.
23:39One was, of course, the fact that he was someone who isn't a superstar, larger than life, the manner in
23:44which Vijay is.
23:46Second is his timing, the fact that he entered during a general election of 2019.
23:50So, that's what didn't make him an alternative like Vijay did.
23:55If you don't mind this, yes, there is some sort of fatigue with 50-year-old Dravidian duopoly.
24:05I think Vijay also enters at a point of time when the two emotional anchors of Tamil politics, Karunanidhi and
24:12Jailalita, both of them died between 2016 and 2016.
24:15All about timing, I agree.
24:16So, it creates an opportunity.
24:18I'm not denying all of those things, right?
24:20But a similar sort of like RJD versus JDU fatigue could have developed and Prashant Kishore could have walked in,
24:27right?
24:27But Prashant Kishore didn't get even 4 or 5% of votes.
24:30So, all I'm saying is, let's not have a theoretical argument about why this might be happening, because this may
24:38not happen on May 4th.
24:40Right?
24:40So, we should be…
24:42Rahul, you know, since you're making that point about Bihar and Tamil Nadu here, in Tamil Nadu, actors are larger
24:51than life.
24:53And even politicians have that cult, Jailalita, Karunanidhi.
24:58And now, even MK Stalin was in the process of trying to assert that kind of imagery of himself.
25:04In Bihar, politicians are not supposed to be godlike figures.
25:09In Tamil Nadu, this kind of phenomena works.
25:13And that is the reason why we are seeing this kind of conversion, perhaps, which we have not seen in
25:18the state of Bihar.
25:19The kind of, you know, resonance that PK may have had, but it did not really translate, because it's a
25:25different state.
25:26The state is looking at a different kind of politics, totally.
25:28But let's not, like, I was basically, I was trying to argue against the point of, like, fatigue with two
25:34existing parties.
25:35I understand that Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu has an yearly, like, in some ways, Cine stars are much more
25:42likely to do better there.
25:44Right?
25:44But, like, yes, NTR and MGR got that kind of entry.
25:49Did Chiranjeevi got that entry?
25:51Did Kamal Hassan got that entry?
25:52Did Vijay Khan got that entry?
25:54Right?
25:54So, for every argument, there is some limited evidence that can be used.
25:59Right?
25:59Like, let's not use all evidence for, same thing.
26:03No.
26:04So, okay.
26:04So, in this case, if we go by the Axis My India numbers, and we focus particularly on how Vijay
26:11is done,
26:11and the fact that, you know, we're talking, at least looking at these numbers, at this particular forecast, in this
26:17exit poll,
26:17that Vijay could get somewhere between 98 to 120 with a 35% vote share, and I want to compare
26:22it to the other superstars who entered politics, Mr. Pulla Rao,
26:27would you deem Vijay's performance as an MGR 2.0?
26:31Because, yes, there are comparisons, and then there aren't.
26:34Because for MGR, it wasn't really a first day, first show miracle like we could see for Vijay.
26:40Actually, MGR had a monopoly, literally.
26:42The DMK had 60% of the vote, then the Congress was on the decline.
26:46And there was no Kamraj Nadar, nobody.
26:48There was no charismatic Congress figure.
26:50So, MGR's situation was different.
26:52Here, one factor.
26:53The DMK alliance never gelled well.
26:56The Congress was unhappy.
26:57Other parties were unhappy.
26:59And the DMK alliance was just formed before the elections.
27:02And that must have helped Vijay immensely.
27:05The allies must have switched their votes, wherever possible, out of bitterness, out of sabotage their main partners.
27:12That is definitely you will find that.
27:14Because there was nothing.
27:15There was no cohesion in both the alliances.
27:17Neither the DMK was able to command it, neither was the DMK.
27:22I believe Rahul Gandhi never even visited together with Stalin anywhere, as you know.
27:26Yes, there was no joint campaigning.
27:28Yes.
27:29So, Professor Shastri, come in here.
27:30You know, in comparison to 2021, there has been a slide, certainly, of the DMK vote share.
27:40But it is AIA-DMK, which is the biggest, if these numbers actually hold, we have to constantly say that,
27:48Akhita, because, yes, add that caveat, because we have to wait till 4th.
27:53So, Professor Shastri, it is the AIA-DMK, which is certainly not gaining the anti-incumbency vote.
28:00Now, since the press general of the bills, the ANA-DMK has not been able to make out the thing
28:08that it was earlier,
28:10and a lot has to do with the capacity of the leadership to be able to make people in elections.
28:16I don't think that that capacity has been visible, and this explains why in the parliament election, the BJP decided
28:24not to put it to ANA-DMK, go it alone.
28:27But this time around, because the aim was to defeat the token, the weapon for the alliance, but then it's
28:34clear, not just this exit pole, if you look at other exit poles, it is the ANA-DMK, which does
28:41not seem to be doing very well.
28:43And in a sense, Vijay's success, if the access money turns out to be right, or even the other ones
28:53turn out to be right in terms of the lesser number of seats they are projecting, Vijay's success is limited
29:00to this factor.
29:01A fact that to challenge the ANA-DMK on the other side, there is no real charismatic leadership.
29:10No, I agree, and that is the biggest void that Vijay is trying to fill.
29:13We're still having a problem, sir, with your audio, so I apologize for buttoning in.
29:16But I just want to, Maria, if we could put out a poll of poles to see what the numbers
29:21really look like, because there is a very sharp contrast on that.
29:25So if we put out the poll of poles, just look at those numbers.
29:29I mean, it's astounding.
29:30The fact that Access My India is saying 90 to 120 for Vijay, whereas all of the others, the maximum,
29:36the maximum that's gone to Vijay is from PMAR, if I'm not wrong, at 26.
29:41So you look at the stark difference there, Maria, and it tells you what we're bracing for come Monday.
29:46Yes, but it's fascinating.
29:48I think it's freshness that we look at, some kind of magic which has worked in some state.
29:56I think it's definitely got us more excited.
29:58Like most states have been very traditional in their approach.
30:02It is Tamil Nadu which is coming up with some kind of sparkle there with actor Vijay, if those numbers
30:08actually hold.
30:09He will be the biggest story, and that will be the biggest story that is coming in from Tamil Nadu.
30:16It'll be interesting to see for sure.
30:17And what will you say?
30:18What worked then?
30:20Which one?
30:20Did you see it coming?
30:22No, 100%.
30:22I did say that there is a Vijay factor.
30:24Sitting in the newsroom versus on the ground, when I was in the newsroom, I was very apprehensive about whether
30:28Vijay would work.
30:29I said, you know, there's too much of gravity in politics driving Tamil Nadu for any newcomer to make an
30:34impact.
30:35But then when I got to the ground, the buzzword on ground, let's be very clear, Mariya, was Vijay.
30:40The whole world was talking about Vijay.
30:42I heard men, women, youngsters, irrespective of age, gender, all of them said, I'll vote for Vijay.
30:47I was a little apprehensive about whether going to the polling booth, looking at, you know, just booth presence on
30:53that day, that kind of change.
30:54And I still wonder if we could get Pradeep Gupta, I'd love to ask him that, about whether he also,
31:00to some extent, was maybe swept up by that euphoria of Vijay.
31:03Because I was, initially.
31:04So, you know, sometimes that's what we say, that sentiments are one barometer.
31:09The other barometer is to ensure that this fandom gets converted into votes.
31:14And that requires an organizational presence.
31:17Has actor Vijay, in just a matter of two years, covered that distance?
31:22While there was that enigma around him, he met few journalists, spoke about his plans.
31:27He never gave interviews, tried to stay away from media totally, tried to be completely under the radar in his
31:35functioning.
31:36And is that something that made people of Tamil Nadu...
31:40That works in Tamil Nadu.
31:41That enigma, that larger-than-life image, it's something that always works in Tamil Nadu, whether it's in films or
31:48in politics.
31:49You know, the line between the two is very thin.
31:53So, which is the song, most popular song of Back to Vijay?
31:56Which will fit in if the Access My India...
31:58I think his most famous song right now is Now Ready Da.
32:01So, I think that is the best song to go for.
32:03Which says, I am ready.
32:04I am always ready.
32:05Is he really ready?
32:06So, it works for him in that sense.
32:08But he's got a lot of movies that really fit into this context.
32:11And I think Sarkar is one that definitely fits into this context.
32:14So, that will be the big number we'll be watching out for on 4.
32:19Access My India predicting that actor Vijay, the debutant, could very well be the king.
32:26In Tamil Nadu, if these numbers hold.
32:29It is a prediction which has seen unsurprising reactions.
32:35Yeah, and unprecedented really.
32:37TVK is rejoicing.
32:38The DMK and AI DMK are watching out closely.
32:41They have rubbed to all of these numbers by Access My India.
32:43But let's put the focus and the spotlight on Vijay.
32:46Yes, the speaking of the man of the moment.
32:48If these numbers hold, it is about actor Vijay, a superstar who has long ruled the silver screen as a
32:55beloved Abhineta, or actor.
32:58Has now stepped into a far more consequential role, that of a Neta.
33:02He's been ruling the silver screen in Tabernod of Hollywood for the last 30 plus years.
33:07And after that, has chosen now to switch over into politics.
33:11There's always been these questions, you know, did he do the right thing?
33:14What's the timing right?
33:15Will he be a successful politician?
33:18Ultimately, you've got the example numbers, but we'll still have to wait for May 4th to find out.
33:35Back in 2018, Tamil Nadu's biggest superstar walked onto a movie screen.
33:45And played a man who decided enough is enough.
33:49It's time to take on the Sarkar.
33:59The film was called Sarkar.
34:04And the people went absolutely wild.
34:24Fast forward to today.
34:27And life is imitating art in the most extraordinary way.
34:32Parambur
34:45See, Joseph Vijay, Trichy Kerak.
34:53See, Joseph Vijay.
35:00Trichy Kerak.
35:08For three decades, Vijay, born as Joseph Vijay Chandra Shekhar, has been nothing short of a phenomenon in Tamil cinema.
35:23He grew up in a home where cinema was not just a profession.
35:30He grew up in a home where cinema was not just a profession.
35:46Contemporary South Indian cinema's biggest stars, popularly referred to as Talapati, which means commander by fans.
35:58In 2021, Vijay's fan club successfully contested local body elections in Tamil Nadu for the very first time.
36:06The organization won 115 of the 169 seats it contested.
36:11A quiet but clear signal that the fan base could translate into votes and could even compel an Abhineta to
36:20turn into full-time Neta.
36:25In February 2024, Vijay formally announced the formation of his political party, Tamiragavet Trichy Kerakam, declaring it would contest the
36:362026 elections.
36:39During his party's first major conference in 2024, Vijay declared the BJP as his party's ideological opponent and the DMK
36:49as its political adversary.
37:10The man who once played heroes on screen was now picking real enemies and conference after conference, Vijay sharpened his
37:20attacks on CM MK's talent.
37:22And the ruling DMK.
37:27But just like a cinematic twist, on September 27th, 2025, everything changed.
37:36Thousands of men, women and children gathered in Karoor district, hoping to catch a glimpse of Vijay.
37:43As excitement peaked, overcrowding, poor crowd control and confusion led to a deadly stampede, resulting in 41 deaths.
37:59Cops then blamed the TVK's leadership for the tragedy.
38:03After four days of silence, Vijay reappeared to apologise, but also to blame the Stalin government, alleging attempts to sabotage
38:16TVK's growth.
38:20Vijay sought a CBI enquiry himself and faced the investigators fiercely.
38:27And just when Vijay thought it was the end and all the political drama was over,
38:33his film Jananayagan, a triumphant cinematic goodbye before a full-time political career,
38:40came in the eye of the storm.
38:49But Vijay seems to be unstoppable.
38:51In a high-stakes political gamble, he has decided to contest from not one, but two constituencies.
39:09From whistles on the silver screen, to a whistle-poured moment in politics.
39:15Can he deliver a blockbuster and rise like a real Jananayagan here?
39:25Vidasta Bhardwaj, Bureau Report, India Today.
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