- 32 minutes ago
High political drama was witnessed in West Bengal as Trinamool Congress candidates protested outside strongrooms in Kolkata, alleging EVMs manipulation by the BJP and election officials.
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00:01Good evening, hello and welcome. You're with the news today. This is your primetime destination news, newsmakers, talking points.
00:07We've got plenty on the show tonight, this Thursday night, but we're going to get cracking first as always with
00:14the nine headlines at nine today.
00:17As another exit poll claims a big BJP win in West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee rejects the projections.
00:24Says TMC winning 226 seats this time, a big rival.
00:29Suvendu Adikari says confident of forming BJP government in Didi's one-time fortress.
00:39High drama in Kolkata, Trinamool Congress, Neta's now stage a protest outside the strongroom in the city.
00:47Alleged EVM manipulation attempt by BJP along with EC officials, poll body denies the allegations.
00:59Two pollsters predict actor-turned-politician Vijay's blockbuster debut in Tamil Nadu.
01:06Vijay meets TVK candidates, tells them to maintain vigil at counting centres.
01:11Chief Minister Stalin also asked DMK Khadas to be extra careful.
01:18Assam Chief Minister Hemantabhiswa Sarma versus Pawan Khaira in Apex Court.
01:25Supreme Court reserves order on Khaira's anticipatory bail plea over defamation charges.
01:31Congress leader likens Hemantabhiswa as an anti-constitutional cowboy ramble.
01:39Tragic incident coming from Jabalpur, at least four people dead, several injured after a boat capsizes.
01:46Rescue operations currently underway.
01:52A big relief for Karishma Kapoor's kids in the Sanjay Kapoor wealth case.
01:58Delhi High Court orders to maintain status quo and restrains Priya Kapoor from dealing with assets.
02:08Amid havoc in the Hormuz Straits, U.S. to stop, step up pressure on cities to help reopen the strait.
02:16Iran threatens painful response if U.S. resumes the attacks.
02:24Amid searing, soaring crude oil prices, Rupees slides to a fresh low, crosses 95.34 against the U.S. dollar.
02:32Sensex and Nifty also tumble further.
02:38Rajasthan Royals captain Riyan Farag escapes a ban but is fined for vaping during the IPL.
02:44VCCI slaps a fine of 25% of his match fee for breaching the code of conduct.
03:02But the story that's breaking at the moment, Trinamul Congress leaders Shashi Panja and Kunal Ghosh,
03:09both candidates, are now sitting on a dharna in front of the strong room outside Netaji Indoor Stadium in Kolkata.
03:17They allege that attempts were being made by the BJP and the Election Commission officials
03:22to open the ballot boxes without the presence of relevant party representatives.
03:28So that's coming in from Kolkata at the moment.
03:32High drama within a day of exit polls coming out and of course the voting concluding.
03:38Let's just listen in to what they had to say.
04:08High drama within a few days.
04:11What is the source? He hasn't cleared it.
04:14The ROA has come and the guidance and the guidance.
04:17He has to implement it.
04:19He has to implement it.
04:20He has to implement it.
04:21He has to implement it.
04:22He has to implement it.
04:32Okay, now, even as that latest drama plays out, remember,
04:36exit polls suggesting, several of them,
04:39that Mamata Banerjee's 15-year reign in West Bengal
04:44could be coming to an end.
04:45Banerjee has rejected the verdict coming out
04:48from some of the exit polls that are predicting a big BJP victory.
05:38That's a big reason for sure.
06:02Thank you very much.
06:34I want to go straight across to Indrajit Kundu.
06:37Both the major parties, of course, making conflicting claims predictably, Indrajit.
06:41But the latest drama being played out in Netaji Indoor Stadium where candidates have gathered to protest what they are
06:49saying.
06:49The manner in which the EVM and ballot box machines were being moved allegedly without the election commissions, without the
06:58political party reps being there.
07:00Can you tell us what is happening around you?
07:09You can see, you know, BJP workers and Trinamul Congress workers are now face-to-face right now.
07:15Shashi Panja and Kunal Ghosh, they were protesting here.
07:20And North Colcala candidates are now.
07:22BJP candidate Tapush Roy has reached the location of the Strongroom.
07:26Now, he wants to expect, even as we speak, West Bengal, you know, Trinamul Congress Supreme of Mamata Banuji, she
07:33has already left the house.
07:34And she has gone to, she has gone to Shakhawat Memorial School where the EVMs of Bhavadipur are stored.
07:42So, Mamata Banuji has rushed to Shakhawat Memorial Strongroom where her, you know, local Bhavadipur EVMs are stored.
07:50And here at the Nitaji Indo Stadium, you can see high drama.
07:55There are central forces deployed.
07:56Tapush Roy, who is the BJP candidate, he has rushed here.
08:01Even when the Trinamul candidates are sitting here and there is, you know, police is trying to guard these two
08:09teams as BJP and Trinamul Congress workers to start, you know,
08:14sloganeering against the Sharjah.
08:15This is the CCDB, you can see.
08:16This is the CCDB.
08:17Police is trying to get aggressive right now.
08:20This is the CCDB.
08:21I will try and ask my camera person to show, you know, the Trinamul Congress has alleged that there was
08:26some suspicious activity inside the strong room,
08:28which is visible from outside.
08:30And you can see complete chaos that has broken out.
08:33I will show you Trinamul Congress workers on one side, BJP workers on the other side.
08:39Complete chaos.
08:40You can see here, you know, slogans against each other that has started.
08:49And I will show you how Trinamul Congress candidates, two of them high profile, Sashi Panja and Kunal Ghosh, still
08:57hold up here.
08:58And they are sitting here and they are trying to, they are trying to hold forth, even as they wait
09:03for Chief Minister Mamata Banerji to come.
09:05We are given to understand that Chief Minister has already reached Shakhawat Memorial, where the EVMs for Bhavanipur, her own
09:12constituency has been kept.
09:14I will just reach out to Kunal Dhah once again.
09:16Kunal Dhah, just tell us what kind of suspicious activity did you see?
09:20You see, there is sealed strong room.
09:24So they are breaking seal without any witness.
09:28How can it be possible?
09:30This is totally illegal, immoral and fishy activities in favor of BJP.
09:35All right.
09:36So, you know, serious, serious allegations coming in.
09:39And even as the Trinamul Congress candidates stay, sitting here outside the strong room, we can see the BJP candidate,
09:46Tapos Roy.
09:47He has now reached out to this location with his supporters.
09:50And as soon as he reached out, there were, you know, there was a confrontation between BJP and Trinamul Congress
09:56supporters.
09:57Even as I speak on the other side, there you can see right at the gate, you know,
10:02the police is trying to put a barricade between the two groups and BJP leader, candidate Tapos Roy.
10:09He is holed up here right at the gate of this very strong room,
10:14which has the EVMs for some of the crucial North Kolkata seats like Manik Tala, like Shampukur, like Beleghata.
10:21And as I say, Rajdeep, Mahmata Banerjee has come out of her house.
10:25She has rushed to the Shakhawat Memorial School, which is also the accounting center for Bhavanipur,
10:30where the EVMs have been kept in a strong room.
10:33And it is likely that she would now come to this place to inspect this location.
10:38Back to you.
10:39Very interesting.
10:40It seems almost as if the hyper-polarized politics of West Bengal already playing out even before counting day.
10:48You can see Tapos Roy there of the BJP.
10:51And the candidates of the Trinamul are both there on the ground.
10:55So that's what's happening at the moment in Kolkata.
11:01Clearly, a confrontation of sorts is brewing there on the ground.
11:06And all of this is taking place within 24 hours of the polling ended.
11:11And remember, counting is on the 4th.
11:15Amidst all of this, we'll go back to those images later, because amidst all of this,
11:19the fact is, we have the Polar Poles now.
11:22West Bengal, remember, has chosen, at least in two phases.
11:27And what are the Polar Poles saying?
11:28Clearly, a majority of the polls are suggesting the BJP could create a slice of history on Monday
11:34by winning West Bengal for the first time.
11:37The latest poll that came out gave a big bumper victory.
11:41Today is Chanakya, 192.
11:43We still don't know, though, what methodology and sample size he's taken.
11:47But 192 to BJP, 100 to TMC.
11:51Matris and other polls, as you can see, all heading in the direction of the BJP.
11:56The two outliers there are People's Pulse, which is giving Trinamul Congress the bigger victory.
12:02And SAS Group, which is also giving a big victory to the Trinamul and Janmat.
12:09So there are about four polls clearly heading in the direction of the BJP,
12:14three in the direction of the Trinamul Congress.
12:17But overall, it's obvious now that change of some kind,
12:21whether Mamata Banerjee's seats reduced or she's completely smashed by the BJP in this election,
12:27we will know on Monday.
12:28But the BJP is growing.
12:30That's without a doubt.
12:31How much is it growing is one of the big questions that I want to pose.
12:36Because remember, West Bengal has always been seen as one of the last frontiers for the BJP.
12:42They could well be breaching a major fortress
12:45if these numbers that today's Chanakya and some of the others are holding.
12:49If, on the other hand, those who are suggesting a Trinamul win,
12:54Mamata Banerjee will create a slice of history,
12:56become only the third chief minister to win four consecutive elections in a major state,
13:00the previous ones being Jyoti Basu and Naveen Patnaik.
13:04So either way, history could be created on Monday,
13:07depending on which poll turns out to be more accurate.
13:12Now, before I go to my guests,
13:14I want to say that one of the interesting aspects is Pradeep Gupta of Access by India,
13:19one of the country's most recognized pollsters,
13:22has chosen not to give a poll for West Bengal.
13:26And I spoke to him a short while ago and I asked him that question to Pradeep Gupta.
13:31Why is it that a leading pollster has chosen to opt out of an exit poll
13:37for such a key battleground state?
13:40Listen in to what Pradeep Gupta told me a short while ago.
13:45Pradeep Gupta, you're making the news this time for not doing a poll.
13:50Normally, you make the news in case your numbers are right or wrong.
13:53This time, you made the news for not doing an exit poll for the key state of West Bengal.
13:59Let's be honest, Pradeep.
14:00Why did you opt out at the last moment?
14:05Pradeep Gupta, at Access Mindia, our methodology is very simple,
14:10face-to-face interview with representatives happening.
14:13And when I say that, we need to talk to people.
14:16And in the state of West Bengal, this time, trust me, I've been there myself.
14:2270 to 80% of people not willing to even open out their mouth.
14:28It's not that we straight away go and ask people whom we are voted to.
14:33There is a process that comfort level has to be drawn,
14:36and then only we can talk, you know, in detail.
14:39But this time, I have seen myself,
14:44nobody is willing to even speak out anything.
14:48They say, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry.
14:50This is man and woman? Male and women, you're saying?
14:55More in women, less in men, comparatively.
14:58Now, but the fact is, Pradeep Gupta, your team was on the ground for several months.
15:03You've been always very honest in disclosing the fact that you've polled for the BJP in terms,
15:08that's why you don't do opinion polls.
15:10So your team was there, presumably doing ground surveys for the last five, six months.
15:16Did you notice this only in the last week that suddenly people were not speaking?
15:20Because otherwise, how do you even poll for a political party?
15:25Rajdeep, so this is something in your mind that we polled only for the BJP or this or that.
15:32In case of the state of West Bengal, trust me,
15:35we have been doing survey four months back,
15:38and that to non-political survey, non-political survey,
15:42and our people have been sent to the jail.
15:44And I have taken up this matter to Kolkata High Court,
15:48and they have given verdict also, and our people have spent 21 days there.
15:52So it's not that suddenly something had come up, and this is happening and all that.
15:57This was the case.
15:59But as a profession, we need to keep on trying, keep on doing it.
16:04And that is the reason why we tried our best post-poll study, as I always tell you.
16:10We don't do anything on the polling day.
16:13We go next day after polling, which is called the post-poll study.
16:17It is not allowed to do the exit poll or conduct the exit poll on the same day of polling.
16:23So we have gone there.
16:24Last six, seven days, we tried enough, hard enough,
16:27but we could talk to only 20 to 25 percent of the people off our sampling,
16:33and that is not representative enough for me to put the number forward.
16:38You see, because I am showing, Pradeep, today's Chanakya Matri's Poll Diary,
16:43People's Pass, PMARC, SAS Group, Janmat, all of which are giving numbers of their exit polls.
16:48Are you telling me they had no problem, but you had a problem?
16:51Or are we to raise question marks over these other pollsters who have put out numbers with such confidence,
16:58today's Chanakya giving as much as 192 today to the BJP?
17:03Pradeep, each of the agencies we are mentioning has a different methodology,
17:07and there are three, four different methodologies in the market survey arena,
17:13which is the CAPI, which is the computer-aided personal interview.
17:17That is what we follow.
17:18Strictly, we follow that.
17:20CATI, which is the telephonic interview.
17:23CAVI, which is the link-based, web-based interviews.
17:26So, this is the different, different, and one is the qualitative.
17:30They don't do survey as much as we do.
17:33They do some analysis based on their qualitative experience and wisdom.
17:40So, this is something, each one of the agency has a different methodology.
17:44What should I comment on that?
17:46No, while you are saying they have different methodologies, now, correct me if I am wrong,
17:50you do on a, usually about 100 people, you sample per Vidant Sabha constituency, am I correct?
17:57Which is representative, that is your tradition.
18:00So, in a state like West Bengal, you would have done 100 into 294,
18:04you would have ended up doing about 29,000.
18:08You are telling me you are only able to do 25% of that
18:11because there was a fear factor that people were willing, not willing to speak out or silence.
18:17Who did they fear?
18:17Did they fear the TMC?
18:19Did they fear the Central Forces, the BJP?
18:22Who did they fear?
18:24Razdeep, when you knock the door and people say,
18:27sorry, we don't want, you do not have the luxury to ask to them whom they are fearing to.
18:33It's just that if any unknown person comes to your doorstep and knock it,
18:38and you cannot say that, I am fearing this, I am fearing that.
18:42It's just that they are talking or they are not talking.
18:48Okay, there you heard Pradeep Gupta give us his reasons,
18:52saying that 70% of the sample he was attempting to survey were not willing to speak.
18:58Silence in the air.
19:00What does it suggest?
19:01Does it suggest, as some are saying,
19:03that people are looking for change but don't want to express it,
19:06or is there fear of Central Forces?
19:09Sayantan Ghosh, author of a recent good book, Battleground Bengal, joins me.
19:14Rahul Verma, fellow center for policy research is with us.
19:17Neerja Chaudhry, senior journalist with us.
19:19Ashutosh is also with us.
19:21Thank you all very much for joining us at this moment.
19:25Sayantan, you've been tracking Bengal in your book for quite a while now.
19:29You give us a sense what we are seeing already playing out one day after the polling has ended,
19:34another battle taking place in the heart of Kolkata.
19:38Meanwhile, our polls are showing a lot of voters,
19:42post-poller polls showing BJP perhaps having the edge.
19:46What's your sense?
19:47Is this a hyper-polarized election?
19:51Where is this now confrontation of the kind we are seeing playing out already,
19:55going to carry on?
19:59Hi, thank you.
20:01Thank you, Rajdeep, for this opportunity.
20:04So, what is happening today?
20:05I think that's the politics of West Bengal.
20:09It's always fascinating.
20:10It's always on the ground.
20:12West Bengal's politics, everybody is trying to be a street fighter,
20:17wants to hit the street.
20:18Okay, you have seen Mr. Modi traveling on the grounds like this also.
20:26So, that is one part of the story.
20:28The other part of the story is what I think Mr. Gupta told you,
20:32that this time a very silent election is happening.
20:36On the ground, there is a silence within the voters.
20:40Okay, they are not sharing their opinion.
20:44Another thing is that I am not quite sure about the exit polls' results.
20:51Because, see, I am not saying that BJP cannot win this election.
20:57Of course, anything can happen and BJP can win.
21:00But, the kind of result which the exit polls are showing,
21:05that means that the complete social engineering of West Bengal
21:10has completely shifted.
21:12Total Hindu consolidation.
21:13If these numbers are right of Chanakya and these other polls,
21:17there would be total Hindu consolidation.
21:18Am I correct or not?
21:21Yes.
21:22But, not only Hindu consolidation.
21:24When we are saying Hindu consolidation,
21:26we are including the women as well.
21:29In West Bengal, we have not seen any trend of,
21:34till now, that women are shifting their allegiance
21:37from the TMC, led by Mamata Banerjee.
21:40So, that's why I am saying that it will change the social engineering.
21:45The Muslims, okay, if the BJP wins in this number,
21:51that means that consolidation of Muslims,
21:54which have been happening 2011 onwards,
21:58towards they always vote in a block,
22:00that has also not happened.
22:02So, that means a matching split in the Muslim vote.
22:07We do not have that kind of sense on the ground as well.
22:10So, and also…
22:13So, you are saying this could be a tectonic shift,
22:15of course, if the BJP wins.
22:16All of this is a big if.
22:18I want to turn to you, Neerja Chaudhary,
22:20because the headline we put is,
22:21do or die battle for TMC,
22:23and we are already seeing it playing out at Netaji Stadium.
22:26At the moment, TMC leaders have gone there,
22:29claiming that there are irregularities in the way
22:31ballot boxes are being stored.
22:33All of this suggests a nervousness.
22:35Nervousness.
22:35Mamata Banerjee also addressing nervousness, desperation.
22:39How do you see it?
22:40Yes, the body language of Mamata Banerjee since yesterday morning,
22:45the day of the second phase of polling.
22:47You know, normally she comes out in the afternoon.
22:50She came out in the morning,
22:51was supervising the poll arrangements in her constituency,
22:55Bhavanipur.
22:55So that was a new element.
22:57And generally, you can see the tension,
23:00the tautness, the defensiveness in the TMC.
23:03And you're right.
23:04If the kind of turbulence we are seeing today,
23:07what happens on the day of counting?
23:10How does government formation take place?
23:13Will the results be accepted by either side,
23:16depending on whoever wins?
23:18It's a very, very highly polarized election,
23:21no doubt about it,
23:22because the stakes, Rajdeep, as you know,
23:24are very, very high for both sides.
23:27Now, you know, Pradeep Gupta,
23:29we saw on the screen what he had to say.
23:33Pradeep Gupta is very cautious this time,
23:36vis-a-vis the Bengal exit polls.
23:39It's valid that, you know,
23:4170% of the people didn't talk to him.
23:43But he has taken the risk in Tamil Nadu.
23:47He's given a projection to Vijay, a newcomer,
23:50saying that he would lead by 100 seats.
23:54Now, that's taking high risk,
23:55which the other exit polls have not taken.
23:59But he's not prepared to take that risk in West Bengal,
24:01which shows that nobody really is confident
24:04of, you know, what Bengal is going to yield.
24:07And we've seen two parallel streams play out.
24:10One for Mamta, standing like a rock between the BJP
24:14and what I call, might have been the deluge,
24:17to sweep away TNC.
24:18And on the other side,
24:20there is the aspirational Bengal
24:22that wants jobs, industry, a better life.
24:26And that's much more the middle class
24:29and in the urban centers.
24:31So which is going to be,
24:32which will weigh heavier?
24:34That is the question.
24:35You know, that's a very good way to put it.
24:38Uh, Rahul Verma, as I said,
24:41Pradeep Gupta has now reached the stage
24:43where he says the voters are silent.
24:45Hence, I don't want to predict.
24:46Doesn't happen too often that pollsters,
24:47you know, throw their hands up
24:49and say, we are not even putting out any numbers.
24:52Are you seeing this all as a product
24:54of a hyper-polarized society?
24:55It was left versus Mamta for years.
24:58Now it could be Mamta Banerjee versus BJP.
25:01And therefore, whatever happens on the 4th,
25:03that polarization still remains on the ground
25:06and could unfortunately lead to clashes
25:09of the kind that we are already seeing today.
25:12Absolutely.
25:13Rajdeep, three points.
25:14First, Bengal has always been difficult to poll.
25:19Anyone who does surveys and knows about surveys,
25:22Bengal has been a difficult state
25:24because of multiple reasons.
25:26Surveyors get arrested
25:28or sometimes picked by party people
25:30and then you have to call and get them out.
25:32So this is not just Pradeep's story.
25:33I know different polling agencies.
25:36In fact, even academic surveys,
25:37which are done for writing journal papers and others,
25:40people do face problems.
25:41So that's common in Bengal.
25:43Second point, which is to do with this hyper-polarization.
25:47And I think something is very different this time.
25:51And why I'm saying something is different?
25:53Because before this,
25:56the rules of the elections were contested.
25:58This time, the rules of elections
26:00are being contested, right?
26:02In some ways, Bengal resembles a state under a siege.
26:06You had 2,000 companies of police force,
26:10central paramilitary forces.
26:12500 are going to stay
26:13after even the counting has happened.
26:16Remember, and I said three days ago,
26:1992% turnout worries me.
26:22Everyone thinks like at certain level
26:25when there is too much turnout,
26:26that means that stake for every voter is so high
26:30that they want to participate.
26:32The reason they want to participate,
26:33not only because my vote will not,
26:35I will not be allowed to vote next time,
26:38but they think if other party,
26:40my opponent comes to power,
26:41I will be in severe trouble, right?
26:44So stakes have become so high
26:46that you've got this level of turnout.
26:48SIR happened everywhere,
26:50but the jump in turnout
26:52wasn't as much as you saw in Bengal.
26:55And so you are absolutely right.
26:58I think what we are seeing today
27:01are worrying signs
27:03for what might happen on 4th or afterwards.
27:06You know, Ashutosh,
27:08taking off from what Rahul Verma says,
27:10there is a belief that either anti-incumbency
27:13has set in as it did with the left in 2011,
27:16this could be 2011 redux
27:18with only the provisor
27:20that perhaps Mamata Banerjee
27:22has at least 60 to 70 seats
27:24where she's possibly difficult to beat.
27:27But otherwise, very similar,
27:28many would say,
27:29if the Chanakya poll holds
27:31or if some of the other polls hold,
27:33it shows that while the BJP is growing,
27:35it's still not completely been able
27:37to capture Bengal.
27:39Do you believe that that in itself,
27:41that this uncertainty is now playing out?
27:43Mamata Banerjee on the street,
27:45TMC Neta is on the street,
27:46Shuvendu Adhikari also on the street,
27:49that street politics is taking over
27:52once again in a very dangerous form.
27:54See, Razeev, that's a traditional way
27:56of looking at Bengal election this time.
27:58In my opinion,
28:00that Bengal is a new electoral,
28:03is a new laboratory
28:04in Indian electoral history.
28:07Something which is happening in Bengal
28:09has, I have never heard,
28:11never seen something like this.
28:12The issue is
28:15that 27 lakh people
28:17are denied their voting rights.
28:20And Supreme Court has conquered
28:22with that decision of election commission.
28:25Despite Supreme Court itself saying
28:27that you have changed the rule,
28:31those whose name appeared
28:32in 2002 revision,
28:35they don't need to put any document.
28:38This is what comment has come
28:40from the Supreme Court itself.
28:41But 27 lakh people
28:43have been denied that right
28:45to exercise their right.
28:47The second issue is
28:48the IPAC,
28:51the election management team
28:55of TMC.
28:56Director is arrested
28:58a few days
29:00before the election
29:00and he gets a bail
29:02on the very next day
29:03when the second poll of,
29:04second round of the poll happens.
29:07And mind it,
29:08he was arrested by ED.
29:10And anybody getting
29:12a bail
29:13under PMLA Act
29:15is the most difficult thing.
29:16But here,
29:17the ED lawyer is saying,
29:19no, no,
29:19I have no objection
29:20if you can give him
29:23a bail.
29:25That means...
29:26You're suggesting,
29:27you're suggesting
29:28that the entire system
29:29in a sense,
29:30there has been no level
29:31playing field
29:32and the system
29:33has been gamed in a way
29:34is your charge.
29:35That's a charge you're making.
29:36No, no, no.
29:37At the end of the day,
29:38the voters vote.
29:39At the end of the day,
29:4093, 94% voters have voted.
29:43Rajdeep,
29:44how can we,
29:45how can we,
29:45how can we talk about
29:47the election
29:47when 27 lakh people
29:49are not allowed to vote?
29:51And then,
29:51don't forget it.
29:53The proposer of,
29:55the proposer of
29:56Mamata Banerjee's house
29:57was raided by income tax.
29:59One of the police officers
30:01was with Mamata Banerjee
30:03has been raided.
30:04And if these,
30:06these are normal things,
30:07then I don't have
30:08to say anything.
30:09Now,
30:10and the elephant
30:11in the room
30:11is the SIR itself.
30:13Now,
30:14nobody exactly knows
30:15what happened
30:15in the different constituencies,
30:17how many people's
30:17names are deleted,
30:18and whether it is going
30:19to favor BJP,
30:20whether it is going
30:21to favor,
30:22favor,
30:23favor TMC.
30:24So,
30:24if we are applying
30:26our simple,
30:27normal,
30:27traditional,
30:28conventional tool,
30:29then certainly
30:30we can't reach
30:30to any conclusion.
30:31We can't say,
30:32as of now,
30:32I'm not in a position
30:33to say whether the BJP
30:34is winning
30:35or the TMC is winning.
30:36If we go by
30:37conventional wisdom,
30:38I can say that
30:38the TMC has an edge.
30:40But if you consider
30:41all these things
30:42which happen over there,
30:43I can say a vote.
30:44I take your point
30:45about 27 lakh voters.
30:47The fact that
30:4827 lakh voters,
30:49many of whom
30:50seemingly are
30:51legitimate citizens,
30:52but have not been
30:52even able to approach
30:53the tribunal to vote,
30:55is a serious question
30:56and the Supreme Court
30:57of this country
30:57will have to answer that.
30:59But,
30:59Shayantan,
30:59what's your view?
31:00Is SIR still playing
31:02on the minds of people?
31:03The fact that so many people
31:04didn't get to vote,
31:05was that a cause of anxiety
31:07or was that a cause
31:07of people saying,
31:08no,
31:08we've got finally,
31:10there are those
31:11who believe,
31:11particularly the middle classes,
31:13urban middle classes
31:14who believe,
31:14no,
31:16there were any number
31:17of people in Bengal
31:18who were not citizens
31:20of this country,
31:21were Ghuspethia.
31:22Has that Ghuspethia narrative
31:23worked or not
31:24on the ground?
31:27See,
31:28one thing
31:29which I would like
31:30to tell you
31:30because Ashutoshji
31:31was talking about it,
31:33if you check
31:34the tribunals,
31:35I'm not going
31:36into the exact
31:38records,
31:38but if the tribunal
31:40has attended
31:40100 cases,
31:43then what is,
31:44what has happened
31:45is 9 out of,
31:46sorry,
31:4799 out of it
31:50have been cleared
31:51as being genuine
31:52voters.
31:53That's the trend
31:54right now,
31:55okay?
31:55and in the tribunal.
31:57So you're saying
31:58a majority of the
31:5927 lakh voters
32:00who were struck up
32:01were genuine?
32:02The tribunal
32:03cleared about
32:041400 names,
32:0599%
32:06those who are pro.
32:06Do you believe
32:07that's a factor?
32:08That that is one of the reasons?
32:09Because the way
32:10SIR has been conducted,
32:11it has further
32:12polarized society,
32:14those who are left out
32:15and those who have been
32:16able to vote.
32:18Yes,
32:18exactly that's what
32:19I'm trying to say.
32:20I believe that
32:21the high turnout
32:22which we have seen
32:24is because of
32:25an emotional voting.
32:27Everybody in
32:28West Bengal,
32:29of course,
32:30the urban
32:32population
32:33and rural population,
32:34there are
32:34differences,
32:35but the emotion
32:37on the ground
32:38has worked.
32:39That,
32:40okay,
32:40I am a,
32:42like,
32:42I know a person
32:43whose genuine
32:43name has been deleted,
32:45okay?
32:46So that,
32:46that emotional
32:48factor has worked.
32:50In solidarity,
32:51many people have voted.
32:52There is anxiety
32:53as well,
32:54okay?
32:54Everybody
32:55whose name is there
32:57in the voter list,
32:59they have worked hard
33:00to put their name
33:01because of the kind
33:02of the legalities
33:05that made it
33:05so complex.
33:06I take your point.
33:08You make a good point.
33:09There's anxiety,
33:10you believe,
33:10among those who feel
33:11left out
33:12and including
33:12their relatives,
33:14but Neerja Chowdhury,
33:15you've covered elections
33:16for many years.
33:17Have you,
33:17therefore,
33:17seen anything
33:18quite like this?
33:19The manner
33:20in which
33:20the West Bengal
33:22election has played
33:23out,
33:23Neerja,
33:23over the last
33:24couple of months.
33:25Mamata Panerji
33:26went to the Supreme
33:27Court on the
33:28SIR issue.
33:29Now,
33:30today,
33:30you're seeing
33:32her leaders
33:33protesting outside
33:34an EVM strongroom.
33:35The BJP also
33:36has been out
33:37on the street.
33:38The Home Minister
33:39has spent much
33:40of the last month
33:41in West Bengal.
33:42You've got all
33:42these security forces
33:43out there.
33:44Have you seen
33:44anything quite like
33:45this?
33:46No,
33:47Rajdeep,
33:4891 lakh voters
33:50deleted,
33:51as they say.
33:52I don't remember
33:53that kind of a figure
33:55in any election,
33:56to be honest.
33:57And we don't know
33:58this 27 lakh
34:00that we are talking
34:00about.
34:01We don't know
34:02how it's going
34:02to pan out.
34:03But let me just
34:04tell you this,
34:05that the Muslims
34:06were more exercised
34:08by the SIR
34:10and the deletions
34:12than the Hindus.
34:13And Hindus
34:13were also exercised,
34:15those whose families
34:16and loved ones
34:17and friends
34:17had been subjected
34:19to harassment,
34:20standing in the queues,
34:22at the end of it
34:22not getting justice.
34:23That is going
34:24to make a difference.
34:25But I found
34:26the Hindus
34:27considering it
34:28as one more
34:29inconvenience,
34:30you know,
34:31not that kind
34:32of a strong
34:33opposition to SIR
34:34as one might
34:35have seen.
34:36But on silence
34:38that, you know,
34:38you talked about
34:40earlier,
34:41I think
34:44silence of the voter,
34:46I found also women,
34:48those who were
34:49voting for change,
34:50starting off
34:51by saying,
34:52you know,
34:52it's in God's hands
34:54or we will know
34:55on May 4.
34:56And if you scratch
34:58further,
34:58they would say
34:59we are voting
35:00for change.
35:01I didn't hear people
35:02say I'm voting
35:03for BJP.
35:04That to me
35:05was very interesting.
35:05And I think
35:07the fear,
35:09those who were
35:09voting for TMC
35:10talked about it
35:11much more openly,
35:12the women.
35:13Those who were
35:13voting for change
35:14did not talk
35:15about it openly.
35:16So there was
35:16obviously a fear
35:17of the TMC
35:19workers or CADR.
35:21And last election
35:22were remembered
35:23when, you know,
35:24those who had
35:24voted were targeted.
35:27But it's also true
35:29that with the forces,
35:30central forces
35:31coming in
35:32on the polling day
35:33that there may
35:34have been a greater
35:35reluctance to talk
35:36because people
35:37did not want
35:39to get caught
35:39in the firing line.
35:41On the one hand,
35:42the TMC card
35:43and on the other
35:45hand,
35:45the central forces.
35:46So they will,
35:47it's possible 70%,
35:49you know,
35:49said,
35:50we don't want to.
35:51Of course,
35:51those of us
35:52who are journalists
35:53sat with them
35:53for a long,
35:54long time,
35:55chatted them up,
35:56didn't ask for their names,
35:58promised not to take
35:59photographs,
35:59photographs and then
36:00people opened up,
36:01yes.
36:02But I suppose
36:03those who do the surveys,
36:04the exit polls
36:05don't have that
36:05kind of time.
36:06So you've seen,
36:07you saw signs of change.
36:10I mean,
36:11this is the question
36:11that when you get
36:12such high voter turnout,
36:14Rahul,
36:14and we've discussed
36:15this earlier,
36:16high voter turnout
36:17in recent elections,
36:18Rahul,
36:18doesn't always mean
36:19anti-incumbency.
36:21But West Bengal
36:22could be different
36:23given the fact
36:24that if there are
36:26these other factors
36:27that have played out
36:2715 years in power,
36:29do you believe
36:30that this is an election
36:33where one side
36:33was pushing for change
36:35and BJP represented change
36:36and Mamata Banerjee
36:38was playing the trope
36:39of Bengali Asmita
36:41of center
36:41versus Kolkata
36:43in the manner
36:44that she has
36:44in the past?
36:48Two different points.
36:49First one is,
36:50I think...
36:51Meanwhile,
36:51I just want to
36:52stop you for a moment.
36:53The poll body
36:54in West Bengal
36:55has rejected
36:56the charges
36:57that there was
36:58any foul play.
36:59The EC has told
36:59all parties
37:00about the ballot segregation.
37:02The BJP claims
37:03that Mamata Banerjee
37:04is making excuses
37:05for an impending
37:06poll defeat.
37:07Mamata Banerjee
37:07is claiming
37:08this is yet another
37:09example,
37:09she says,
37:10of the center
37:11trying to influence
37:12the verdict there.
37:13Now,
37:13the BJP has also gone
37:15and staged a protest
37:16at the Netaji Stadium.
37:18But go ahead
37:18very quickly,
37:19Rahul.
37:20So,
37:20first thing,
37:21you know,
37:23if some of the
37:24projections about
37:25BJP coming to power
37:26in Bengal
37:27holds true,
37:28I think it's happening
37:29because what you can call
37:31as setting up
37:32of a perfect storm.
37:34I think the SIR process
37:36and then this heavy security
37:40created some kind of
37:42sort of like sense
37:43of relief
37:44among BJP workers
37:45and voters.
37:46Second,
37:47I think there is
37:48some level of
37:49anti-incumbency.
37:50Many reporters
37:51documented it.
37:52In fact,
37:53like welfare
37:54architecture might be
37:55also under crack.
37:56Your own reporter
37:57showed that women
37:57saying that
37:58we just don't want
38:001500.
38:01We want more jobs.
38:02there is also
38:03aspiration.
38:04Third,
38:05I think BJP ran
38:07a much better campaign
38:08compared to 2021.
38:10They made lesser
38:11mistakes
38:12or less mistakes
38:14compared to,
38:15so you can only
38:16get a number
38:17of like BJP
38:18touching or crossing
38:19majority mark.
38:20I don't believe 200 plus
38:21kind of a number
38:22can only happen
38:23when all of these
38:24things coming together.
38:26And we also need
38:27to remember
38:28that power in Bengal
38:30does not change
38:32peacefully.
38:33We don't have to be
38:35like,
38:35let's not forget
38:36history so easily
38:38that this is something
38:40happening first time.
38:41Just read
38:42from January to May
38:442011 pages
38:46and you will know
38:46the number of people
38:48who had died
38:48when the power
38:49changed from
38:50left to
38:51Trinamul Congress.
38:53And go back
38:54to 1972 election
38:56in Bengal,
38:58hegemonic parties
38:59don't lose silently.
39:01Right.
39:02Right?
39:02So let's not
39:03create as if
39:05this is,
39:06Bengal is a unique
39:07state.
39:08The power in 50 years
39:09has changed only once.
39:10And many called it
39:12in recent times
39:13a party state
39:13because the Trinamul
39:14Congress had sort of
39:15dominated all parts
39:16of civil society.
39:18But Ashutosh,
39:18therefore,
39:20if,
39:20if,
39:21this is,
39:22if at all
39:22the BJP does win
39:23West Bengal
39:24on,
39:25on Monday,
39:28would it suggest
39:29to you
39:29that this is
39:30the ultimate
39:30citadel broken?
39:32All that remains
39:33then is Kerala
39:34possibly deep south.
39:35Otherwise,
39:36the BJP's imprint
39:37will truly,
39:38the Hindutva imprint
39:39will be all over
39:40the country.
39:40And this is barely
39:41two years after
39:42the party struggled
39:43and did not get
39:44a majority
39:44in the Lok Sabha.
39:46See,
39:46Rajdeep,
39:47I'll come to that
39:48conclusion and analysis
39:49of that only on the
39:50fourth if the BJP wins.
39:51Why I should not say
39:52that the TMC can win?
39:53See,
39:54the BJP can win
39:55in only one condition.
39:57That condition is
39:58if you take
39:592021 CSDS data
40:01as a benchmark,
40:02that data
40:03very clearly
40:04shows that
40:04almost 55%
40:06of the Hindus
40:07are mobilized
40:08in favor of the BJP.
40:10But the catch is
40:11this 55%
40:12is not enough
40:13for the BJP
40:14to win elections.
40:15BJP has to cross
40:16the mark of
40:1760 to 63% votes,
40:19Hindu voters vote,
40:20and only then
40:21they can win.
40:22Because there are
40:22the two M
40:23which is solidly
40:24with the TMC,
40:26that one is the Muslim,
40:27the last time
40:27they voted almost 75%.
40:29If we go by CSDS data,
40:31and this time
40:31that number 75
40:32is going up.
40:33There's no doubt
40:34about it in my mind.
40:35The second day
40:36is that the women voters.
40:38Last time
40:38the difference
40:39was 50%
40:39and 37%.
40:40Now the issue is
40:42the issue
40:43is very simple.
40:44In 2021,
40:46Mamata Banerjee
40:46did not have
40:47any
40:50welfare scheme
40:51especially for the women.
40:52She came out
40:53with the Lakshmi Bhandar
40:54Yojana,
40:55she came out
40:55with the Rupa Shri Yojana,
40:56she came out
40:57with the Kanya Shri Yojana,
40:58and all these
41:00welfare
41:01must have
41:03benefited
41:04more than
41:051.5 crore women.
41:06You know,
41:07the aspirations
41:08can keep rising.
41:09Aspirations can keep rising.
41:11You want jobs,
41:11you want much more.
41:12But if
41:12Rajdeep,
41:14Rajdeep,
41:14Rajdeep,
41:15that's okay,
41:16that's okay.
41:17But if Mamata
41:18was getting
41:1850% of the women's
41:20sought in 2021,
41:22when there was
41:23no welfare scheme
41:24targeting only the women,
41:25now there are
41:26the specific,
41:27the Lakshmi,
41:28Lakshmi Bhandar Yojana,
41:291,500,
41:29and for SCST,
41:30it's 1,700.
41:31And then for the Kanyashri,
41:3325,000 for the marriage.
41:34And then
41:35the educational support
41:37that has benefited
41:38almost
41:40more than a crore.
41:41Now the issue is
41:43if
41:43the welfare scheme
41:45is any benchmark,
41:46if on the basis
41:47of welfare scheme,
41:48BJP can win
41:49in Haryana,
41:50Madhya Pradesh,
41:50and
41:52Maharashtra,
41:53and
41:53in Jharkhand,
41:54Hemansurant,
41:54why not
41:55Mamata Banerji?
41:56Well, because
41:57we'll wait and see.
41:59I'm not going to,
41:59I have decided
42:01that exit polls
42:02cannot become
42:02the basis of
42:03knowing who's won
42:04and who's lost.
42:05I'm just trying to
42:05understand
42:06for our audiences
42:07also why this
42:08election in West Bengal
42:09has become so critical.
42:10One of it, of course,
42:11is that
42:12if that citadel falls,
42:13it's a big blow
42:14to a major regional party,
42:16it's a big blow
42:17to the India Alliance,
42:18and it could further
42:19see a splintering
42:20of that alliance as well,
42:21and it makes the BJP
42:23more and more
42:24of a dominant party.
42:25I appreciate my guest
42:26joining us
42:27on this show
42:28and giving us your...
42:29How many times the abituary
42:29of the India Alliance
42:30has been written?
42:31No, I'm not writing
42:32anyone's obituary.
42:34The abituary of India Alliance
42:34is written.
42:35The time has come to,
42:36I think we have to
42:37rethink about it.
42:38Okay.
42:39We'll wait and see.
42:40We'll wait and see
42:41what happens on the 4th.
42:42But I just thank my guests.
42:43I also want to tell you
42:44about the high drama
42:45that's going on.
42:46Those are the visuals
42:46playing out at the moment.
42:48All of this came over
42:49strong rooms
42:49at the election commission.
42:52The election commission
42:52has said
42:53that all parties
42:54were there
42:54when the EVMs
42:55were being moved.
42:56This was challenged
42:57by the Trinamul Congress.
42:59The BJP has got into it
43:00and as you can see
43:02there is a clash
43:03that has come
43:04at the Netaji Stadium.
43:05The elections may be...
43:06The voting may be over
43:07but that intense
43:09political confrontation
43:10that we witnessed
43:11in Bengal
43:12continues
43:13with the TMC
43:14accusing the BJP
43:16of being hand in glove
43:17with the election commission.
43:19Tapas Roy
43:19once with Mamta Banerjee
43:21is one of the candidates
43:22now of the BJP
43:23saying that Mamta
43:24is setting up
43:25an excuse for defeat.
43:26Mamta Banerjee
43:27is saying
43:27that the entire process
43:29is being rigged.
43:30We'll obviously...
43:31We'll obviously hear
43:33much more of that
43:34in the days ahead.
43:36Just to tell you
43:36that the other big state
43:37where there's lots of action
43:38already taking place
43:39is Tamil Nadu
43:40ever since the exit poll
43:41suggested a surge
43:43for debutant,
43:44actor,
43:45politician Vijay.
43:46Both the main
43:47Davida parties
43:48are looking very closely
43:49at what Vijay will do
43:51and are already
43:51looking at the possibility
43:53in some instances
43:54of a potential
43:55hung assembly
43:57and what a hung assembly
43:58would do.
43:59Who would Vijay go with?
44:00Take a look
44:01at all those numbers there.
44:03A number of the polls
44:04are putting the DMK ahead
44:06but there is one outlier
44:08Axis My India
44:09that has put Vijay
44:10at number one.
44:11But in all the polls
44:12particularly in today's
44:13Chanakayan Axis
44:14Vijay is getting
44:15the kind of votes
44:16that could lead
44:17to a potential
44:18hung assembly
44:19in Tamil Nadu
44:20even though
44:21the DMK-led alliance
44:22appears to hold the edge.
44:24They are the ones
44:25across the polls
44:26barring that one poll
44:29of vote wipe
44:29which puts the
44:30AI-DMK ahead
44:32in almost all
44:33the other polls.
44:33It is the DMK
44:35which is taking the lead.
44:36But the Vijay factor
44:37is clearly playing out
44:39in Tamil Nadu.
44:41What is this Vijay factor?
44:42What is Vijay up to today?
44:44All his legislators
44:46have gathered around him
44:47in Tamil Nadu.
44:49Let's take a look
44:49at how Vijay is preparing
44:51including looking at
44:53post-poll options
44:54amidst reports
44:55that the AI-DMK
44:56may be willing
44:57to ally with him
44:58to put the
44:59keep the DMK out
45:01depending on
45:02the final numbers.
45:03My colleague
45:04Pramod Madhav
45:05now reports.
45:19He was not even
45:21expected to be
45:21the kingmaker.
45:30But Talapati could
45:31well emerge
45:32as the king
45:33in his very first election.
45:38While most exit polls
45:39for Tamil Nadu
45:40suggest Vijay's party
45:41could make a strong debut
45:43in terms of vote share,
45:45one forecast
45:46has truly stirred the pot.
45:49Access My India
45:50pegs TVK
45:51at 98 to 120 seats
45:54in the 234-member assembly.
45:57A range
45:58that places it
45:59either just
46:00short of the halfway mark
46:01or potentially
46:02in majority territory
46:04on its own.
46:05That projection
46:06has triggered
46:07intense political buzz
46:09across the state.
46:11Vijay has already
46:13held a strategy meeting
46:14with party candidates
46:15at the party's
46:16Chennai headquarters
46:17charting the road ahead.
46:20He has instructed
46:22the codder
46:22to reach the counting
46:23centre at 6am
46:25on the verdict day
46:26and be prepared
46:27for the results.
46:29The party remains
46:30confident
46:31even suggesting
46:32it could outperform
46:33exit poll estimates
46:34and stake claim
46:36to form the government
46:36independently.
47:02Dax Is My India
47:03poll projects
47:04the NDA
47:04at just
47:0522 to 32 seats.
47:09An AIA-DMK
47:10is now exploring
47:11the possibility
47:12of opening
47:12the communication
47:13channel with Vijay.
47:15But any such move
47:17will hinge
47:17on TVK's
47:19final tally.
47:21For now
47:22the AIA-DMK
47:23insists
47:23exit polls
47:25will be off the mark
47:26and the alliance
47:27will secure
47:28the numbers.
47:29Predictions
47:30went wrong
47:31in the
47:32past history.
47:33This is the
47:34past history.
47:35So now
47:36why
47:37because
47:38we are not
47:39relying upon
47:39this.
47:40They are taking
47:40some minor
47:42samples
47:42from the public.
47:43This is not
47:44reflecting the
47:45real mood
47:46of the
47:46Tamil Nadu
47:46people.
47:49The ruling
47:50DMK2
47:51has dismissed
47:52the projections
47:52downplaying
47:54both the exit
47:54polls
47:55and Vijay's
47:56impact.
47:56We have
47:57been maintaining
47:58that we
47:58will win
47:59this election
47:59with a
48:00massive margin
48:02and the
48:02exit polls
48:03though they
48:04are conservative
48:04in my estimate
48:05the numbers
48:06given by these
48:07pollsters are
48:08conservative.
48:08I am very
48:09very confident
48:10that we will
48:11cross the
48:11180 mark.
48:13The Congress
48:14is silent
48:15but a section
48:16within the
48:17party had
48:17sought a tie
48:18up with
48:18TVK which
48:19was overruled
48:20by the
48:21high command.
48:23May 4th
48:24will deliver
48:25the verdict
48:25on Vijay's
48:26debut.
48:27But at this
48:28moment he
48:29stands on
48:30the cusp of
48:31a potentially
48:31historic
48:32political
48:33entry.
48:35Bureau
48:36Report
48:36India
48:37Today.
48:41So what
48:42happens next
48:42in Tamil Nadu
48:43is Vijay
48:44going to be
48:45kingmaker
48:45king and
48:46what will
48:46the Dravidar
48:47parties do?
48:48Salim
48:49Salim
48:49Dhardi
48:50Dharan joins
48:51me.
48:51DMK
48:53senior
48:53spokesperson
48:54and
48:55S.
48:56Murali
48:56Dharan
48:56political
48:56analyst
48:57with us.
48:58I appreciate
48:58both of
48:58you joining
48:59us.
48:59Mr.
49:00Dhardi
49:00Dharan
49:00I know
49:00that most
49:01of the
49:01polls
49:01are
49:01showing
49:02the
49:03DMK
49:03close
49:03to the
49:04halfway
49:04mark
49:04with
49:04its
49:05allies
49:05but
49:05Vijay
49:06doing
49:06very
49:06well.
49:07And if
49:08he is
49:08in a
49:08position
49:09to
49:09possibly
49:10tie up
49:10with
49:11the
49:11AI
49:11DMK
49:11there
49:12are
49:13reports
49:13of
49:13back
49:13channel
49:14talks
49:14how
49:15worried
49:15are
49:15you?
49:16Does
49:16the
49:17DMK
49:17need
49:17a
49:18clear
49:18majority
49:19to
49:19ensure
49:20that
49:20Vijay
49:20does
49:21not
49:21become
49:21either
49:21king
49:22or
49:22king
49:22maker?
49:23See
49:24Rajdeep
49:24the elections
49:25are over
49:25we have
49:26done
49:26the hard
49:26work
49:27five
49:27years
49:27of
49:27excellent
49:28government
49:29as well
49:29as one
49:30month
49:30of
49:30campaigning
49:30now
49:31whatever
49:31we
49:32discuss
49:32is not
49:32going to
49:33reflect
49:33the
49:34election
49:34on
49:35May
49:354th
49:35and
49:36I
49:36am
49:36very
49:36confident
49:37that
49:37my
49:37party
49:37will
49:37sweep
49:38the
49:38elections
49:38but
49:39even
49:39otherwise
49:40I have
49:40never
49:40been a
49:41fan
49:41of
49:41exit
49:41polls
49:42the
49:42first
49:42reason
49:43is that
49:43Tamil Nadu's
49:44electorate is
49:44about
49:444.4
49:46crore
49:46odd
49:46the
49:47sample
49:47sizes
49:47do not
49:48exceed
49:4840,000
49:49which
49:49translate
49:50to
49:50about
49:500.1
49:51percent
49:51for
49:52any
49:52statistics
49:52to
49:53account
49:53anything
49:53you
49:53should
49:53at
49:54least
49:54touch
49:54a
49:54person
49:55which
49:55means
49:56it's
49:56only
49:562,000
49:57voters
49:58per
49:58constituency
49:59less
49:59than
49:592,000
50:00which
50:00is
50:00less
50:01than
50:0110
50:02voters
50:03per
50:03booth
50:03and
50:04is it
50:04possible
50:04for
50:05anyone
50:05doing
50:05exit
50:05polls
50:06to
50:06go
50:06and
50:07visit
50:07all
50:07the
50:07booths
50:08it's
50:08not
50:08possible
50:09you're
50:09dismissing
50:10the exit
50:10polls
50:11forget
50:13the
50:13polls
50:13the
50:13fact
50:14is
50:14all
50:14the
50:14polls
50:15are
50:15showing
50:15Vijay
50:15is
50:16becoming
50:16a
50:16factor
50:17and
50:18that's
50:18what
50:18the
50:19ground
50:19reports
50:19indicate
50:19are
50:20you
50:20dismissing
50:20him
50:21out
50:21of
50:21hand
50:21are
50:21you
50:21saying
50:22there
50:22is
50:22no
50:22Vijay
50:22factor
50:23in
50:23Tamil Nadu
50:25I
50:25am
50:25saying
50:26not
50:26all
50:27the
50:27polls
50:27are
50:27saying
50:27one
50:28poll
50:29has
50:29highlighted
50:29that
50:30he
50:30may
50:30get
50:31100
50:31or
50:32things
50:32that's
50:32an
50:33out
50:33all
50:33the
50:33polls
50:34are
50:34giving
50:34him
50:3420
50:3525
50:3530
50:35so
50:36he's
50:36not
50:36just
50:36a
50:36single
50:37politician
50:38I
50:38maintain
50:38one
50:39position
50:39always
50:39I
50:40said
50:40this
50:40election
50:41is
50:41not
50:41about
50:41who's
50:41going
50:42to
50:42be
50:42the
50:42chief
50:42minister
50:42of
50:42Tamil Nadu
50:43this
50:43election
50:44is
50:44going
50:44to
50:44be
50:44about
50:44who's
50:44going
50:45to
50:45be
50:45the
50:45opposition
50:45power
50:45is
50:46it
50:46going
50:46to
50:46be
50:46ADMK
50:47or
50:47someone
50:48else
50:48this
50:48election
50:49was
50:49about
50:49that
50:50because
50:50Yedda
50:51party
50:51has never won
50:52an election
50:52ever since
50:53he's been
50:53appointed
50:53as the
50:54head of
50:55AADMK
50:55that's the
50:55point
50:56it's not
50:56Jair Alita
50:56so maybe
50:57the
50:58voters
50:58of
50:58AADMK
50:59are
51:00looking
51:00for
51:01options
51:02because
51:03the
51:03party
51:03based
51:03on
51:04face
51:04the
51:04charisma
51:04of
51:05the
51:05leader
51:05that
51:05was
51:05Jair Alita
51:06before
51:06the
51:07MGR
51:13you're
51:14everyone
51:15in
51:15Tamil Nadu
51:15and
51:16we'll
51:16play
51:16shots
51:16of
51:16Vijay
51:17has
51:17become
51:18the
51:18X
51:18factor
51:18at
51:19the
51:19moment
51:19I've
51:20taken
51:20your
51:20point
51:20Mr.
51:21Mr.
51:22Moodli
51:22Dharan
51:22is
51:22Vijay
51:24both
51:25the
51:25AADMK
51:26and
51:26DMK
51:26fear him
51:27because
51:27they don't
51:27know
51:28who
51:28he
51:28will
51:28damage
51:29more
51:29and
51:29now
51:30the
51:30possibility
51:31that
51:31he
51:31may
51:31be
51:31king
51:31or
51:32king
51:32maker
51:32does
51:32that
51:33worry
51:33them
51:33you
51:33think
51:37sorry
51:37is it
51:38for me
51:40do you
51:41believe
51:41Vijay
51:42is
51:42worrying
51:43both
51:43the
51:43major
51:44Dravidya
51:44parties
51:44he's
51:45completely
51:45changing
51:46the
51:46landscape
51:47your
51:48voice
51:48is
51:48breaking
51:49he's
51:49not
51:49able
51:50to
51:50get
51:50it
51:50I'm
51:51sorry
51:52okay
51:53can
51:53you
51:53hear
51:53me
51:53now
51:57no
51:59we'll
52:00try
52:00and see
52:00if we
52:00can fix
52:01that
52:01I'm
52:01sorry
52:02about
52:02that
52:02but
52:02very
52:03quick
52:03final
52:04point
52:07Selam
52:07do you
52:08believe
52:08that
52:09Vijay
52:09is
52:10someone
52:10who
52:11has
52:12who
52:12you don't
52:12want to
52:13talk
52:13about
52:13because
52:14you
52:15fear
52:15that
52:16he
52:16could
52:16be
52:17the
52:17X
52:17factor
52:17of
52:18this
52:18election
52:18come
52:18Monday
52:19is he
52:19someone
52:20you're
52:20ready
52:20he has
52:21made it
52:21very clear
52:21he doesn't
52:22he will
52:23do business
52:23with anyone
52:24other than
52:24the DMK
52:25he may
52:26even do
52:26business
52:26with your
52:27ally
52:27the
52:27Congress
52:28does that
52:28worry
52:29you
52:31Rajdeep
52:31my
52:31chief
52:32minister
52:32is the
52:32most
52:32popular
52:33chief
52:33minister
52:33in
52:33Tamil
52:33and
52:34100%
52:34confident
52:35we're
52:35going to
52:35sweep
52:35the
52:36election
52:36and
52:37the
52:37election
52:37will
52:37decide
52:38who's
52:38going
52:38to
52:38be
52:38the
52:38number
52:38two
52:39if
52:39it
52:39is
52:39going
52:39to
52:39be
52:39Vijay
52:40or
52:40ADMK
52:40or
52:41Nansiman
52:41we
52:42don't
52:42know
52:43but
52:43exit
52:43polls
52:44have
52:44always
52:44been
52:45wrong
52:46most
52:46often
52:47because
52:47the
52:47sample size
52:48does not
52:48account for
52:48anything
52:48and also
52:49the
52:49first
52:49past the
52:50poll
52:50system
52:50party
52:51getting
52:5151%
52:52may
52:52get
52:52all
52:52the
52:52seats
52:53and
52:53party
52:53getting
52:5349%
52:54may
52:54get
52:54zero
52:55seats
52:55that
52:55is
52:56the
52:56beauty
52:56of
52:56the
52:57first
52:58post
52:58poll
52:58system
52:59so
52:59it is
52:59absolutely
53:00not
53:00possible
53:01why
53:02exit
53:02polls
53:02have
53:02seen
53:03them
53:06it is
53:07not
53:07clear
53:07many
53:08things
53:08are
53:08not
53:08clear
53:08even
53:08if
53:09you
53:09look
53:09at
53:09the
53:09access
53:09exit
53:09poll
53:10if
53:10you
53:10count
53:10the
53:11cast
53:11wise
53:11it
53:11only
53:11adds
53:12up
53:12to
53:1272%
53:12for
53:13example
53:13they
53:13say
53:14OBC
53:14is
53:14only
53:1428%
53:15but
53:15OBC
53:15in
53:15Tamil
53:15is
53:1670%
53:16so
53:17there are
53:17lot
53:17of
53:17basic
53:18mistakes
53:18in
53:18that
53:18survey
53:19you
53:19are
53:19going
53:20bad
53:20I
53:20asked
53:21you
53:21about
53:21Vijay
53:22forget
53:22the
53:22polls
53:22for
53:23a
53:23moment
53:23and
53:23I
53:23will
53:23give
53:23you
53:2330
53:24seconds
53:24are
53:24you
53:24worried
53:25about
53:25Vijay
53:25or
53:26not
53:26I
53:27am
53:27not
53:27worried
53:27about
53:28Vijay
53:28we
53:29are
53:29winning
53:29the
53:29elections
53:29whoever
53:30is
53:30going to
53:30be
53:30the
53:31opposition
53:31DMK
53:31will
53:32face
53:32it
53:32we
53:32will
53:32come
53:33back
53:33to
53:33power
53:33we
53:33have
53:34seen
53:34MGR
53:34we
53:34have
53:34seen
53:34why
53:35would
53:35we
53:35be
53:36afraid
53:36about
53:37Vijay
53:37we have
53:37seen
53:37Prime
53:38Minister
53:38he's
53:38not
53:39able
53:39do
53:39anything
53:51couldn't
53:52get
53:52through
53:52to
53:52Mr
53:52Murali
53:52Dharan
53:53either
53:53way
53:53we'll
53:54have
53:54to
53:54wait
53:54and
53:54see
53:54what
53:55Vijay
53:55does
53:55next
53:56because
53:56all
53:56eyes
53:57will
53:57be
53:57on
53:58him
53:58as
53:58they
53:58will
53:58be
53:59on
53:59West
53:59Bengal
53:59as
54:00they
54:00will
54:00be
54:00on
54:02Kerala
54:02not
54:03to
54:03forget
54:03Puducherry
54:04and
54:04this
54:04is
54:04where
54:04you'll
54:05get
54:05all
54:05the
54:05updates
54:06on
54:06the
54:064th
54:07of
54:07May
54:07look
54:08forward
54:08to
54:08your
54:08company
54:09then
54:09for
54:09now
54:10stay
54:10well
54:10stay
54:10safe
54:11Good Night
54:11Shubratri
54:12Jain
54:12Namaskar
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