- 8 hours ago
Day after predicting a massive victory for actor-turned-politician Vijay's party, TVK, in the Tamil Nadu assembly elections, Axis My India's Pradeep Gupta said they would not be doing the Bengal exit poll and explained the reason behind the decision.
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00:00So let's put that out on our screens.
00:02We begin, of course, with Access My India,
00:04which has actually said that TVK will be the single largest party at 98 to 120,
00:09the DMK at 92 to 110,
00:11and then the AI DMK in third place, 22 to 32.
00:14And then you see the varied differences in the other exit polls, Preeti.
00:17You know, this is quite bizarre because this rarely happens
00:20because usually you will have, you know,
00:23agencies that at least get the direction right.
00:25And this time, it seems that each and every agency
00:29seems to be projecting, Akshita, a completely different direction.
00:32And you have at one end an Access My India
00:35who is practically saying that the single largest party in this election will be TVK.
00:40And Vijay could be king, if not kingmaker.
00:43That's one part.
00:44And then you have...
00:45I'll just come to you, Preeti.
00:46We've got Pradeep Gupta with us of Access My India.
00:50Pradeep, good evening.
00:51Preeti, do you want to first address the elephant in the room, Bengal,
00:54and what's happening on that front?
00:55Well, Pradeep, the elephant that is not in the room,
00:57but yesterday, you know, let's speak about that
01:00because yesterday you did confirm to us, Pradeep,
01:02that there will be a huge possibility that you might not be giving numbers.
01:06So why is it that Access My India, Pradeep Gupta,
01:11has chosen this time not to give numbers?
01:15So, Preeti, our...
01:17At Access My India, our methodology is very simple.
01:21Conduct face-to-face interview with representative sampling.
01:24And in Bengal, particularly, we tried that last six days
01:30after the first phase of polling.
01:33And we tried even today, after yesterday's polling for the second phase,
01:38and we found that 70% to 80% people are not ready
01:44or not willing to talk to us.
01:46Under these circumstances, our representativeness in sample is inadequate.
01:53And hence, we decided not to present any of the projections
01:59for the West Bengal election this time
02:02because we do not have that conviction in our findings.
02:05Whatever people we are able to speak to,
02:08they do not represent the sample what we are aiming for.
02:13But Pradeep, many will say, Pradeep Gupta dargai,
02:1721 mein galat, he was wrong, 2024, Lok Sabha, he was wrong.
02:22This time, he doesn't want to take a chance.
02:24I'm giving you various scenarios, Pradeep, and what's going on.
02:27Scenario number one, Pradeep Gupta dargai.
02:29Scenario number two, TMC saying,
02:32it was Pradeep Gupta's numbers were showing
02:34that TMC was ahead, therefore now he's running scared
02:38because he feels that if BJP won, then we'll go out again.
02:41Which one is it?
02:42Or the excuse that you're giving
02:44that people are not talking this time.
02:48There is no question of excuse, Priti.
02:51This is our professional work.
02:53And excuses, I mean,
02:57mostly I say excuses are evidence of non-performance,
03:01which is definitely not the case here.
03:03We are known for our bold predictions in the past
03:08and you know better than anybody else
03:10that there is no question of fear factor,
03:14dargai, vaghira, vaghira.
03:15There is no question.
03:16Pole kabhi galat ho sakti hai, kabhi sahi ho sakti hai.
03:19Usmeh darne jaisi kya bat hai,
03:21aur ye toh exit pole hai.
03:22Yeh koji opinion pole to hai nahi ki kisika koji dar ho,
03:25kisika koji wish hai ho.
03:27Nothing of that sort.
03:28There is no question of that.
03:30But as we known for our accuracy,
03:33jab tak wo conviction nahi aya,
03:35jab loog paati na karay,
03:37toh phir hum kya karay.
03:38Jab loog hi ne baat karay ge,
03:40toh phir toh.
03:40Just one.
03:42Pradeep ji,
03:42isi peh,
03:43then let me ask you one question.
03:44You are saying,
03:45koji question hi nahi ho ta ke dargai.
03:47Your team has been there for now,
03:49on and off over a year.
03:50Aap ko kuch toh samaj meh hao ga.
03:52What is the ground feel?
03:53Ground sense kya hai?
03:55Poribortan or continuity?
03:57Ground sense toh thoda idea lag jada.
04:09You are saying everybody else,
04:16Pradeep ji is punting,
04:18sab ka or ka guess work tukka chal raha hai?
04:22Nay, nay.
04:24Aap usko us tarah se na lijiye,
04:26ki kisika kya horara hai.
04:27May toh keval apni baat kar sakta hon.
04:29Ki may kam se kam jab mujh se,
04:31loog bhaater mujh se kama karatay hoonge,
04:33usmae koji sak nahi hai.
04:35Saayad unko acchhe se baat ki hooghi unhone.
04:37May unke baare meh kuch nahi comment kerta.
04:39Lekin may aapko bata raha hao,
04:40excess mind area meh,
04:41jab tak hum purely numbers
04:44aur humare sample size bhi
04:46aapne hamaysa dekha hai.
04:47Ki acchhe bade sample size hote hai.
04:49We are known for that.
04:51And that is the precisely reason
04:53why we are able to predict
04:55many election,
04:5774 out of 81 election.
04:59Akshita wants a question,
05:00but before I'll just ask you,
05:01Pradeep ji, does this mean
05:03you are not predicting Bengal at all now?
05:06Kuchhbi, there is zero prediction.
05:07You have decided
05:09you are not giving any numbers at all,
05:11leave alone today,
05:12tomorrow, day after,
05:12no numbers.
05:13You have pulled back your resources from Bengal.
05:18Absolutely.
05:19Till today, they were working,
05:20but today we decided
05:22let's hold on to this
05:23and do not predict this time Bengal election.
05:26No, but I want to understand, Pradeep,
05:28from you, what's different?
05:29What's changed?
05:30That in 2021,
05:31you could go ahead
05:32and do an example
05:33and this time you couldn't.
05:35That's what,
05:36last time about 20 to 30
05:38on air,
05:39your channel only,
05:40India Today only,
05:41I have said that
05:41on Rajdeep's show,
05:43about 20 to 30%
05:45people are not willing
05:46to talk to,
05:47but still we could talk
05:48to about 70% people.
05:50And Rajdeep has pointed out
05:51that Pradeep,
05:5220% is a huge number.
05:54How can you assure about this?
05:56I said at least majority of people
05:58we could speak to.
05:59So let's do this.
06:01That's not the case this time.
06:0570 to 80%,
06:06which is a very big sizable number.
06:08I mean,
06:09about two-third of the universe,
06:11more than two-third of the universe,
06:12if it's not talking,
06:14then no question.
06:16When I say guesswork,
06:17I am referring to,
06:18based on this limited sample size
06:21we could speak to,
06:22there I don't want to speculate
06:24or do any kind of a casework.
06:26It's not that the others are doing.
06:27It's a huge claim
06:28that 80%,
06:30that means you are saying,
06:31you are speaking to 10 people,
06:33only two are telling you
06:35where they will be voting this time.
06:37You are saying eight
06:37are not saying anything at all.
06:39That's huge, Pradeep.
06:40In,
06:41yes,
06:42in urban city metro.
06:44By that benchmark,
06:45Pradeep Ji,
06:46go ahead, sir.
06:49In urban area,
06:51metros areas,
06:53city like Kolkata,
06:55only two.
06:56In rural area,
06:58three.
06:58So 70 to 80% people
07:00are not speaking out at all.
07:02I myself has visited Bengal.
07:05I myself have witnessed the situation.
07:07The moment I came to know
07:09that this is the situation,
07:10I said,
07:11let me come and try and do the needful.
07:13Has the situation changed, Pradeep Ji?
07:15And I try and friend the people.
07:16Right.
07:16How has the situation changed?
07:18Because
07:19you've been there,
07:20your teams have been there
07:21off and on
07:22for over now a year.
07:23You've had arrests as well.
07:25Is it fear?
07:25What is it?
07:26That people are all willing to speak.
07:28That,
07:28what are the reasons
07:29is what Rakshita is asking you.
07:30But your team has been there
07:31over a year.
07:32So what has changed?
07:33My question was,
07:34what has changed
07:35in the last two weeks
07:36that seemingly
07:37was different before this?
07:40In last,
07:41after the announcement
07:42of election,
07:43we have seen
07:44so much of a violence
07:45over there.
07:46where even the MP
07:47and minister
07:47and MLAs
07:48has been manhandled.
07:50At times,
07:51people have thrown
07:52stones to their car.
07:54And it is
07:55very evident
07:56and quite evident
07:57both the party's workers
07:58are fighting
07:59to each other,
08:01going to the jail.
08:02In fact,
08:03as I told you,
08:04my five surveyors
08:06have been sent to jail
08:07a few months back
08:08in Damdam jail
08:09that took precise
08:10and they spent
08:11about 21 days
08:12over there.
08:13and we have
08:14raised this
08:15to the Kolkata
08:16High Court
08:17and Kolkata High Court
08:18has given verdict
08:19in our favor.
08:20You continue
08:21doing your work.
08:22You need not to worry.
08:24Despite of that,
08:25when we go there
08:26and try to do this,
08:27there are people
08:28in spectacle
08:29and we,
08:30at that time,
08:32not now,
08:32at that time,
08:33the Karkatas
08:34of different political
08:35party used to
08:36target our people.
08:38Okay,
08:39but Pradeep ji,
08:40you're saying
08:40that three in the rural,
08:42two in the urban
08:43is speaking.
08:44Eight are not in the urban
08:45and about seven
08:46out of ten
08:47are not in the rural.
08:48What is the ground sense?
08:50There has to be,
08:51after being there,
08:53for now,
08:53over a year,
08:54with your teams there,
08:55there's a certain
08:55ground sense
08:56that you get,
08:57Pradeep ji,
08:58which is different
08:58from 2021.
09:01No, no, Prithi,
09:02I don't want to speculate
09:03again,
09:04I am telling you,
09:05but all one thing
09:06is sure,
09:07this time,
09:08the change,
09:09whatever I can see
09:11that is that
09:14BJP is doing
09:15better than last time,
09:16but how better
09:18or how far
09:19it is going to be
09:20as far as the number
09:21of Tally and the seats,
09:22that I do not
09:23have the answer for.
09:24Will they reach
09:25the halfway mark,
09:26Pradeep ji?
09:26Do you see the BJP
09:28reaching the halfway mark?
09:30No,
09:30I can't comment on that.
09:32I have no idea
09:33about it.
09:34Okay.
09:35Pradeep,
09:36since you are making
09:37that distinction
09:37that you have been
09:38on ground for so long
09:40and still there is
09:41a great degree
09:41of caution right now,
09:43and you have said
09:44that your team members
09:45have been targeted
09:46and attacked,
09:47but you are also
09:48someone who is used
09:50to or perhaps
09:51has understood
09:52that these are
09:53the challenges
09:53in a number of states.
09:55So that's my next question,
09:57that when you
09:57approach them,
09:59was it a clear no
10:01or was it
10:02like I do not
10:03want to say?
10:07Clear no
10:08as far as the
10:09election goes.
10:11Election,
10:12matter related
10:13to election,
10:13clear no,
10:14no.
10:15Swari,
10:16no Swari,
10:17no Swari.
10:17But Pradeep ji,
10:18you are people
10:19and your team.
10:20This is journalistic
10:21inquisition and I think
10:22Maria and I
10:22and Akshita would
10:23want to ask you that.
10:25You don't,
10:25your team is trained
10:26to take out
10:28which side a person
10:29is leaning on
10:30without asking a direct
10:31question on the election,
10:33on what issues
10:34are important to them.
10:35Like for example,
10:36when we were on ground,
10:37we faced the same issue.
10:39We asked,
10:39and you are better at it,
10:41Mahila's security issue
10:42if they say
10:43then you know
10:44that this time
10:45BJP is resonating
10:46more with that
10:47you know,
10:48voter.
10:49And if you ask
10:50Bengali,
10:51Asmita,
10:51how big is it?
10:52Very big.
10:53And they speak in Bengali,
10:54you know this one
10:55is with the TMC.
10:56Even that was not possible?
10:59Yes,
11:00that's what I'm saying
11:01precisely,
11:02Kreeti,
11:02that they're not
11:03speaking,
11:04they're not opening
11:05their mouth.
11:06They are simply saying
11:07Swari,
11:08Swari,
11:08Swari.
11:10They provided
11:11they are
11:11able to speak,
11:13yeah,
11:13clear Swari,
11:14Kreeti.
11:14So provided
11:15as you are saying,
11:16our people are
11:17trained like this,
11:18we never go and
11:19ask the state
11:20who voted
11:20or did.
11:21No,
11:22we never do that.
11:23There are tactics
11:24to ask these questions.
11:26But provided
11:27a subject
11:28they speak.
11:30And on your long
11:31career,
11:32you have seen
11:33several elections,
11:35you have predicted
11:35multiple elections.
11:37Would you say
11:38that this is
11:39unprecedented
11:40in the sense
11:40that this has
11:41never happened
11:42and that's why
11:43you have,
11:44because I look at
11:45your statement,
11:45you are saying
11:46that you have
11:47talked about
11:47how many months
11:48you have spent,
11:50how many of your
11:52observers and
11:53researchers were
11:54on the ground
11:54and despite that
11:56you have gone ahead
11:57and not released
11:58the data.
12:00That's right,
12:01Maria,
12:01because this is
12:02not the first time
12:03even I am telling
12:04you in 2017
12:05also my people
12:07were sent to jail
12:08in Jalpayeguri
12:09jail.
12:10There they spent
12:10about 17 days.
12:1217 days.
12:13So this is
12:13something used
12:14to us.
12:15And across
12:16the country
12:17even after
12:18every two to
12:19three days
12:19during the
12:20Lok Sabha
12:21election,
12:22people face
12:22this kind of
12:23manhandling
12:23and problem
12:24at the ground.
12:25But that is
12:26all manageable.
12:27There are some
12:27elements,
12:28some elements,
12:29but this is
12:29across the state,
12:30this is the
12:31situation.
12:31and this
12:33has arisen
12:34particularly,
12:35there was a
12:36clear message
12:37sent out
12:38throughout the
12:39West Bengal,
12:40the state of
12:41West Bengal,
12:42saying that
12:43anybody comes,
12:44don't say
12:45anything,
12:46otherwise
12:46your vote
12:47name will be
12:48come.
12:49Who sent
12:50this message?
12:52I mean,
12:53I don't know
12:53who has sent,
12:54the political
12:55party has
12:55spread this
12:56message,
12:56don't reveal
12:57or say
12:58any political
12:58this thing,
12:59otherwise
13:00your vote
13:00will be
13:01strike out.
13:02Because SIR
13:03was also
13:03happening at
13:04the same time,
13:04so there was
13:05a censure,
13:06No, but
13:07Pradeep,
13:08the question.
13:11Pradeep,
13:11can I,
13:12you know,
13:13I have a
13:14message from
13:14a sophologist,
13:15I won't name
13:15the sophologist,
13:16and basically
13:17he's saying,
13:18Pradeep
13:18has such a
13:18big punt
13:19in one state,
13:21he's risking
13:21it all in
13:22one state,
13:22he's saying
13:23I will not
13:24even risk it,
13:25I'm going
13:25to bar out
13:26of it.
13:26He's playing
13:27a lot,
13:28he won't
13:28do anything.
13:31He can
13:32have a
13:33opinion
13:33and
13:34can I
13:34tell you
13:47that
13:48number
13:49or
13:51logo
13:51cake
13:52Rujhahan
13:53ke
13:55I
13:56on over a phone or online.
13:58I always, even in US election,
14:00we have done the same thing.
14:02You can imagine the kind of difficulties
14:04we must have faced over there.
14:06And we predicted the Trump victory very accurately.
14:10Can I talk about Tamil Nadu?
14:11Yes, please.
14:13Pradeep, I want to know,
14:1424 hours after you put out those numbers,
14:16what's the reaction been like?
14:17You know, my phone was ringing off the hook.
14:19I'm sure it was 20 times worse for you.
14:22Yes, I have continuously,
14:24in fact, if I'm not able to receive
14:26the phone, my office landlines
14:28are buzzing and people are saying,
14:30how can you do this?
14:32How can you do that?
14:33Tell me this, tell me that.
14:35So much of a noise is already on.
14:38So tell me, what are the chances
14:39that TVK, because at 35%,
14:42they have a higher seat conversion,
14:47that it could go upwards of 120?
14:52Upward of 20, meaning in that case,
14:55what we, in that scenario,
14:56in that possibility,
14:59DMK vote share will reduce drastically,
15:02meaning when I say predict 35%,
15:05meaning it is always plus minus 2%.
15:07We mentioned that.
15:08It means one party can go up to 33%.
15:12In that scenario,
15:13one party will score about 37%.
15:16So 4% is a good, sizable number.
15:19If that is going to happen,
15:21if it is TVK, who is 37%,
15:24then the number will go beyond 120.
15:29Okay.
15:30Pradeep, you know,
15:31there's been a bit of chatter
15:33on social media about your numbers.
15:36I'm, you know, saying a bit,
15:37but technically it's a lot more.
15:38I'm getting trolled Pradeep for your numbers.
15:40No, no, no, not at all.
15:41We ignore all of that.
15:43But Pradeep,
15:44there's a couple of questions here
15:46on the data you've put out,
15:47and that's particularly on the caste details.
15:49I don't know if you've seen this,
15:50but a lot of people have been questioning
15:52the data that's been put out by Access My India
15:55about the percentage of Brahmins,
15:57about the percentage of gaunders,
15:59the percentage of tevers that you've mentioned,
16:01and where those figures came from.
16:04Yes, so these are the figures.
16:06We could talk to people.
16:08That is the sample percentage
16:09which is mentioned over there.
16:11And we, none of us knows
16:14because caste census is not yet out.
16:17This is the number,
16:18and I'll tell you what is the methodology
16:20and what is the process in the market research.
16:23There are demography.
16:25So there are two kind of demography.
16:27One is the unique,
16:28and second is the common.
16:30What is unique demography?
16:31The geography, rural, urban,
16:34gender, and age group.
16:36These are the three which is the unique.
16:37What is the common one?
16:39Education, income, and occupation.
16:41That can be common.
16:42And caste group.
16:43That can be common.
16:45So in this scenario,
16:46what is important to maintain in a research?
16:50The unique demography.
16:52And this time, all age group wise,
16:54even election commission has released the data,
16:57whatever the number of electors are there,
16:59what is their construct,
17:02the weights of each and every age group.
17:04And accordingly, we have maintained that.
17:06And also, the male and female,
17:08which is the gender.
17:10And that is where,
17:11in the end of,
17:12in the face of what is your caste group, right?
17:16So whoever comes in the process,
17:18we talk to them.
17:20And we try and make it sensible.
17:22Before we let you go,
17:23just two questions.
17:24One I'll ask,
17:25and then I think Akshita,
17:26you also want one.
17:27But I'll come back to Bengal.
17:29Because you said,
17:30what is seemingly on the ground, Pradeep,
17:32you said,
17:32BJP is doing better than the last time.
17:35Now, a lot of people are hanging on to BJP.
17:38Pradeep Gupta is saying,
17:39BJP is doing better.
17:40How much better?
17:41You're not commenting.
17:42Can you tell us,
17:43in terms of regions,
17:44where is BJP doing better,
17:46as per you,
17:47than the last time?
17:49Priti, I do not have that.
17:51It's just the sense you asked me,
17:53because I also visited there.
17:55This much I can say.
17:56You asked me,
17:57you visited what you found.
17:59What is your sense?
17:59What did your people find on ground?
18:03Which region?
18:04Is the BJP actually doing better this time?
18:07Nothing of that sort, Priti.
18:09I'm not going to say anything,
18:11because that is not adequate enough.
18:13Those people are not representative enough,
18:17as I just now explained,
18:18the Akshita,
18:19the sampling process.
18:21Because it is called a cell.
18:22I'll tell you.
18:23You also must understand this.
18:26What is cell?
18:26Cell size.
18:27It is called cell size.
18:28So, if there are six age groups,
18:31to report one particular age group,
18:34let's say 20 to 29,
18:35there has to be etiquette number in this cell
18:38to report this cell.
18:40Okay.
18:40Tell me one thing then.
18:41All the cells has to have the same.
18:43I hear you, Pradeep.
18:44Which is the set,
18:45which is not speaking maximum?
18:46Is the woman not speaking maximum?
18:49Is it the youth?
18:50Women.
18:50Of course women.
18:51So, you're saying maximum
18:52no's are coming from women.
18:54Youth is always outspoken.
18:56Youth is speaking.
18:57Women is not speaking.
18:58Women is not speaking.
19:00So, you're saying mostly the chunk is woman,
19:01and woman possibly will define this election,
19:04and the women are not speaking.
19:05Correct?
19:06Yes.
19:07Okay.
19:08Okay.
19:08Now, I'm handing it back to you.
19:09I'm so sorry,
19:10but I know you have to go,
19:11but I just have one quick question for you.
19:13Only the women mostly.
19:14Mostly.
19:15Not only women,
19:16mostly women.
19:17Okay.
19:17Okay.
19:18Just quickly on Tamil Nadu, Pradeep.
19:20One of the issues that I saw on the ground
19:22is that there's a lot of Vijay euphoria,
19:23and one of the questions constantly being asked
19:25is whether Access My India
19:26was swept up by that Vijay euphoria,
19:28and that's what's led to these numbers.
19:33This morning,
19:34I try and revalidate my poll
19:37by speaking to two ladies at Chennai.
19:42I asked what is their age,
19:4445 years,
19:45what is their occupation?
19:47She's a domestic help at one of my friends,
19:50and I asked her,
19:51whom you have voted?
19:53She said,
19:53TVK Vijay.
19:54I said,
19:54do you know what is the symbol?
19:56She said,
19:57yes,
19:57whistle is the symbol.
19:58Then I said,
19:59how do you know that whistle is the symbol?
20:01She said,
20:02my daughter,
20:03she's in Tajavur.
20:04She's 28 years of age,
20:06and she called me
20:08and explained me the symbol
20:10and where in the order symbol
20:13is there on the machine,
20:14and she made me,
20:16you know,
20:18understand the whom to vote
20:19and how to vote.
20:20This is one.
20:21The second,
20:22I spoke to one of my friend colleagues,
20:24seven-year-old daughter,
20:25seven-year-old daughter,
20:27asking her father,
20:29this time you must vote to the Vijay,
20:32otherwise I will not speak to you.
20:34This is the kind of phenomenon,
20:36stardom on the ground,
20:38and it's not limited to...
20:39So it is the youth
20:40which is driving the rest of the family.
20:43That is becoming evident.
20:44I saw this too.
20:45Yeah,
20:45I agree with that.
20:46Pradeep,
20:47just one more,
20:47which is when yesterday,
20:49Preeti had asked you
20:49about the margin of error.
20:51You said from 98 to 120,
20:53maybe to 70.
20:54Can you give us
20:55an exact margin of error here?
20:56Because there is many questions
20:57about whether Vijay would settle
20:59at a 60,
21:00and not a 98 to 120.
21:03I am telling you
21:04about 20 seats
21:05can go here and there,
21:07either side.
21:08This is more than I can say,
21:09from my range.
21:10The mean would be 100,
21:10according to it.
21:11Okay.
21:11So, yeah.
21:12So, it could be 70 also
21:14is essentially the suggestion
21:15also from Pradeep.
21:16Yeah.
21:16Okay, Pradeep,
21:17we're going to let you go.
21:18Thank you so much.
21:19Pradeep, thank you.
21:20You've basically,
21:20like I said,
21:21a big punt in Tamil Nadu.
21:23You've decided not to,
21:24you know,
21:25put your hat in
21:26in West Bengal,
21:27but you've been burnt before.
21:29We leave it at that.
21:30But all eyes will be
21:31on you, Pradeep,
21:32where Tamil Nadu is concerned
21:34and how Tamil Nadu really goes
21:35because you're the only outlier there,
21:37isn't he, Maria?
21:37Absolutely.
21:38I think...
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